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Articles 1 - 25 of 25
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Insights For Risk Management And Investment Strategies: Evidence From China, India, And Pakistan Using Bekk-Garch Models, Samreen Fatima, Humera Sultana, Muhammad Najamuddin Dr., Saba Naz
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Insights For Risk Management And Investment Strategies: Evidence From China, India, And Pakistan Using Bekk-Garch Models, Samreen Fatima, Humera Sultana, Muhammad Najamuddin Dr., Saba Naz
The Indonesian Capital Market Review
This study investigates the dynamics of volatility and its spillover effects between the stock markets of China, India, and Pakistan, and their respective exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR, and USD/ PKR). Volatility is modeled using the Symmetric and Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) and DCCGARCH (1,1) models, based on daily return series covering the period from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2025. The empirical results indicate that both the employed models are adequate for capturing the volatility dynamics. The findings reveal that the highest value of portfolio weights and hedging efficiency of KSE-100 Index–USD/PKR provide optimal portfolio allocation and highest hedging performance …
Financial Crises, Bailouts And Monetary Policy In Open Economies, Yang Jiao
Financial Crises, Bailouts And Monetary Policy In Open Economies, Yang Jiao
Research Collection School Of Economics
I jointly study the optimal bailout policy and monetary policy in open economies that borrow in foreign currency from international lenders. A policy dilemma emerges during financial crises. Policymakers trade off the benefit of more bailouts alleviating firms’ financial constraints against the cost of larger currency devaluation, which tightens firms’ financial constraints. I embed the optimal bailout in an otherwise standard “sudden stop” model with nominal rigidities. The model sheds light on the role of bailouts and currency mismatch in driving the exchange rate dynamics, firms’ balance sheets and economic recovery. Quantitatively, the model matches key business cycle moments. A …
India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu
India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
The US is India's largest trading partner, followed by the European Union. Our study, using the GVAR model, shows that a US monetary policy (MP) shock results in a depreciation of the Indian currency vis-a-vis the dollar. This is due to Indian investors preferring to invest in the US, which provides higher returns during a US MP shock. The Eurozone MP shock does not have a significant impact due to the increasing dollarization of the Indian economy. However, the US MP shock propagation diminishes when there is economic policy uncertainty. Our findings have implications for monetary policy conduct in India.
Impact Of Exchange Rate On Trade Flow In Nigeria, Victor U. Ijirshar, Isa J. Okpe, Jerome T. Andohol
Impact Of Exchange Rate On Trade Flow In Nigeria, Victor U. Ijirshar, Isa J. Okpe, Jerome T. Andohol
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the impact of exchange rate on trade flow in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilises linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL and NARDL) models to test the J-Curve hypothesis and the Marshall-Lerner condition in Nigeria. The study found symmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance, exports, and imports. The findings also show that real exchange rate depreciation has a strong negative influence on trade balance and exports in the short run but positive in the long run, exhibiting the shape typology of the J-curve. Furthermore, the study reveals evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition …
Us Financial Expansions And Exchange Rate Determination, Matthew Brill
Us Financial Expansions And Exchange Rate Determination, Matthew Brill
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis is to explore how US financial activity influences the exchange rates of foreign nations. Starting off by building on Currency Hierarchy and Minskyan dynamics, I look at how financial cycles generated in the US, the key economy, transmit liquidity towards economies on the periphery. Additionally, I use the increase in shadow banking asset accumulation relative to commercial banking asset accumulation as indicative of financial expansions in the US, and the driving force of financial cycles. Using vector autoregression (VAR) analysis I test the relationships between the ratio of US shadow banking assets relative to commercial …
Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge
Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge
Publications and Research
Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …
The Influence Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On The Exchange Rate Of Countries Along The “Belt And Road”, Yijing Wang, Xueqing Geng, Kun Guo
The Influence Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On The Exchange Rate Of Countries Along The “Belt And Road”, Yijing Wang, Xueqing Geng, Kun Guo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil …
Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.
Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Markets, Rene Cabral, Francisco G. Carneiro, Andre V. Mollick
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Markets, Rene Cabral, Francisco G. Carneiro, Andre V. Mollick
School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications
The paper investigates the exchange rate on the reaction function of 24 emerging markets economies’ (EMEs) central banks from 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects (FE) ordinary least squares and then system generalized methods of the moments techniques. Under FE, the exchange rate is important in the reaction function of EMEs. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and the exchange rate, the exchange rate remains positive and statistically significant (but quantitatively less) across inflation targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and non-targeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction …
A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar
A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar
Business Review
Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …
Taxation – Selection Of Exchange Rate For Translation Purposes -- Where Multiple Exchange Rates Exist For A Foreign Currency And The Underlying Transaction Is Financial In Nature, The Proper Rate For Translation Components Of Taxable Income Is The "Free" Market Rate (Durovic V. Commissioner Of Internal Revenue, 7th Cir. 1976), Tim J. Floyd
Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law
No abstract provided.
Non-Oil Exports, Economic Growth And Macroeconomic Stability, T.A. Oyejide
Non-Oil Exports, Economic Growth And Macroeconomic Stability, T.A. Oyejide
Economic and Financial Review
The author discussed the role of non-oil exports in the structural transformation and sectoral diversification processes which are inherently associated with sustainable growth and development outcomes as well as the focus of the analysis shifts to an examination of the role of non-oil exports in promoting economic growth and development.
An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje
Economic and Financial Review
The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,
Banking Sector Reform In Ethiopia, Admassu Bezabeh, Asayehgn Desta
Banking Sector Reform In Ethiopia, Admassu Bezabeh, Asayehgn Desta
Collected Faculty Scholarship
The fragile and inefficient state-dominated banking sector that existed in Ethiopia during the military government (1974-1991) was a major hindrance to economic growth. Since it took power in 1991, the current government has implemented a number of reforms. For instance, in 1994, the government legalized domestic private investment in the banking industry. In addition, it restructured the two development banks as commercial banks, and introduced a new Banking and Monetary Proclamation that gave more autonomy and further clarified the National Bank of Ethiopia’s activities as the regulator and supervisor of the banking sector. Although these measures have led to marginal …
Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw
Technical Analysis: An Asian Perspective, Siqin Liaw
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
Technical analysis, namely the moving average rule and the channel rule, is applied to the currency of an Asian managed floating exchange rate regime (USD/SGD) to see if opportunities for profitable trading exist. Instead of using only daily or monthly data, higher frequency time frames of 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are analyzed. Profitable strategies (if any) will be broken down and analyzed within smaller time frames to see if the profits are specifically in sample.
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …
Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper overviews some recent advances on simulation-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters. The …
Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts
Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts
Honors Theses
Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …
Overview Of Exchange Rate Management In Nigeria., Mike I. Obadan
Overview Of Exchange Rate Management In Nigeria., Mike I. Obadan
Bullion
The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic variable in the context of general economic policy making, and of economic reform programmes, in particular. It is a very important price which governments take very active interest in. However, two concepts of exchange rate are commonly distinguished: nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate. - The nominal exchange rate (NER) is a monetary concept which measures the relative price of two moneys or currencies, e.g., Naira in relation to the U. S dollar. - But the real exchange rate (RER), as the name implies, is a real concept that measures the relative …
Exchange Rate Stability And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria, Greg Nzekwu
Exchange Rate Stability And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria, Greg Nzekwu
Bullion
The paper discusses the role of macroeconomic policy in achieving social as well as macroeconomic objectives in attaining poverty reduction in Nigeria. Nigeria's economy is growing at an impressive rate compared to the historical. This reflects in part increased investor confidence due t o the improvement in macroeconomic management and positive dividends of the new found economic direction and general political stability. However, the renewed optimism is unlikely to be sustained if appreciable progress is not made to advance growth, general macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction. The reveals that, In order for growth to be poverty reducing, the link between …
The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim
The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
In post-crisis Asia, all crisis-hit countries (except Malaysia) announced a shift from exchange rate based monetary policy framework to the explicit adoption of inflation targeting that uses interest rates as the key monetary policy operating instrument. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, and investigate how the dynamics between them have changed following the crisis. This is carried out by constructing a bivariate VAR-GARCH model for each of the four Asian crisis countries, namely Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand. The findings suggest these countries do not use interest rate policy more actively to …
The Exchange Rate Mechanism And The Ruble Devaluation Of 1998, Philip Porter
The Exchange Rate Mechanism And The Ruble Devaluation Of 1998, Philip Porter
University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics
I will first examine what I see as the common sense fundamentals of the exchange rate mechanism, noting as I go, the relationship with the current Russian crisis. In my examination, I will take the simplest approach, assuming free trade, unrestricted capital movements and negligible transaction costs. Concluding, I will delve into the quagmire of the Russian situation.
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria
CBN Annual Report
In 1997, Nigeria experienced its third consecutive year of macroeconomic stability, resulting in modest improvement in domestic output growth and a persistently low inflation rate. The balance of payments position showed a modest surplus, and significant success was achieved in reducing domestic liquidity growth. Domestic output expanded further due to increased agricultural output and crude petroleum production, while the inflation rate declined further. Domestic output, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increased by 3.8% in 1997, as against the average growth rate of 2.3% in the preceding three years. The fight against inflation was highly successful, reaching a single …
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1992., Central Bank Of Nigeria
Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1992., Central Bank Of Nigeria
CBN Annual Report
In 1992, Nigeria's economy faced significant pressures but showed resilience, with rapid growth in output and economic liquidity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intensified efforts to achieve inflation and exchange rate stability while improving the efficiency of the financial sector. The financial sector experienced rapid growth and structural changes, with the strongest growth occurring in common unity banking and mortgage finance institutions. Monetary and credit aggregates expanded at unprecedented rates, matching the all-time highs of the oil boom era of the mid-seventies. Interest rates rose significantly, with both deposit and lending rates rising in tandem with the movements of …
Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1990, Central Bank Of Nigeria
Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1990, Central Bank Of Nigeria
CBN Statistical Bulletin
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is recognized for its role in collecting, collating, analyzing, and disseminating data on the Nigerian economy. It has made available as much information as possible through its regular publications such as the Monthly, Half-Year, and Annual Reports, as well as the Economic and Financial Review and the Intermediate Economic and Financial Indicators. However, the bulk of the statistics published in these documents have focused mainly on the current and irregular reporting periods. This has led to a gap in the availability of relevant statistics in the country. The first issue of the CBN Strategic …