Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
-
- Econometrics (39)
- Business (35)
- Economic Theory (35)
- Development Studies (32)
- Physical Sciences and Mathematics (32)
-
- Statistics and Probability (32)
- Behavioral Economics (31)
- Growth and Development (31)
- Macroeconomics (31)
- Applied Statistics (30)
- Income Distribution (28)
- Multivariate Analysis (25)
- Agricultural and Resource Economics (24)
- Food Security (24)
- Statistical Models (24)
- Statistical Theory (23)
- Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series (22)
- Statistical Methodology (22)
- Social Statistics (21)
- Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (20)
- Categorical Data Analysis (20)
- Computer Sciences (20)
- Data Science (20)
- Databases and Information Systems (20)
- Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys (20)
- Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing (20)
- Other Statistics and Probability (20)
- Keyword
-
- Nigeria (5)
- Monetary policy (4)
- Exchange rate (3)
- Asymmetry (2)
- COVID-19 (2)
-
- COVID-19 pandemic (2)
- Cointegration (2)
- Economic Growth (2)
- Education (2)
- Financial development (2)
- Financial inclusion (2)
- GARCH (2)
- Government expenditure (2)
- Health (2)
- Inflation (2)
- Interest rate (2)
- Poverty (2)
- Stock market (2)
- Volatility (2)
- ARCH (1)
- ARDL (1)
- Agricultural credit (1)
- Agricultural credit policy (1)
- All Share Index (1)
- And trade balance. (1)
- Augmented mean group (1)
- Autoregressive Process (1)
- Bank credit (1)
- Banking sector stability (1)
- Bias (1)
Articles 1 - 30 of 41
Full-Text Articles in Finance
Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar
Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …
Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov
Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …
Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace
Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …
Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani
Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper tests the safe-haven property of Bitcoin for South African stocks using Full and Diagonal BEKK-GARCH models. The study uses the Johannesburg stock exchange Top40 index, and bitcoin returns data before COVID-19 (August 2018 to December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020 to June 2021). The results show that bitcoin cannot be considered as safe-haven for stocks in South Africa since it is weakly correlated with stock and had a high volatility during the Pandemic. Therefore, the safe-haven hypothesis of bitcoin on South African stocks is not true for the period under study. The policy implication is that bitcoin …
Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata
Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …
Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman
Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler
Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …
Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo
Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …
Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav
Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …
Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey
Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …
Market Risk Factors And Stock Returns In The Nigerian Bourse, Omorose A. Ogiemudia, Osagie Osifo, Igbinovia L. Eghosa
Market Risk Factors And Stock Returns In The Nigerian Bourse, Omorose A. Ogiemudia, Osagie Osifo, Igbinovia L. Eghosa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the link between market risk and equity return in Nigeria between 1980 to 2019. It employs the vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the short run dynamics and long run effect of market risk factors on stock return. The findings revealed that a dynamic relationship exists between market risk factors and stock returns in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate risk and oil price risks have significant influence on stock return, while inflation and interest rate risk, and political instability risks have a non-significant impact on stock return. Finally, a unidirectional relationship was detected between interest rate, oil …
Savings-Investment Gap In Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Interaction Of Financial Sector Development And Migrant Remittances Matter?, Wasiu Adekunle, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Joshua Afolabi, Musibau Babatunde, Edward Omiwale
Savings-Investment Gap In Sub-Saharan Africa: Does The Interaction Of Financial Sector Development And Migrant Remittances Matter?, Wasiu Adekunle, Oluwatosin Adeniyi, Joshua Afolabi, Musibau Babatunde, Edward Omiwale
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyses the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development on savings-investment gap for a panel of 18 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1990-2017. Results from a panel ARDL model show that migrant remittances reduce savings-investment gap in the long run. The gap is further reduced when the individual effect of financial development, and the interactive effects of migrant remittances and financial development are taken into consideration. Further analysis reveals evidence of widening effects of rising real GDP growth and bank deposits over a long-term horizon, while higher private sector credit widened the savings-investment gap only in the …
Impact Of Exchange Rate On Trade Flow In Nigeria, Victor U. Ijirshar, Isa J. Okpe, Jerome T. Andohol
Impact Of Exchange Rate On Trade Flow In Nigeria, Victor U. Ijirshar, Isa J. Okpe, Jerome T. Andohol
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the impact of exchange rate on trade flow in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilises linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL and NARDL) models to test the J-Curve hypothesis and the Marshall-Lerner condition in Nigeria. The study found symmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance, exports, and imports. The findings also show that real exchange rate depreciation has a strong negative influence on trade balance and exports in the short run but positive in the long run, exhibiting the shape typology of the J-curve. Furthermore, the study reveals evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition …
Effects Of Central Bank Independence And Financial Stability On Inflation In Selected African Countries, Adamu Yahaya, Mohammed T. Saidu, Abdulaziz Sadi
Effects Of Central Bank Independence And Financial Stability On Inflation In Selected African Countries, Adamu Yahaya, Mohammed T. Saidu, Abdulaziz Sadi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the relationship between central bank independence (CBI), financial stability, and inflation in 14 African countries within the period 1985-2019. Initial test revealed the presence of cross-sectional dependence (CD) among the countries. Thus, the Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) were employed for the analysis. The CCEMG and AMG results showed a significant and negative correlation between central bank independence and inflation. On the other hand, financial stability is only significant in the MG Model. Additional results obtained using the Garriga CBI index is consistent with our main results. The …
Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda
Effectiveness Of Foreign Aid In Poverty Reduction In Africa: The Role Of Fiscal Policy, Iwegbu Onyebuchi, Risikat O. S. Dauda
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines foreign aid effectiveness in poverty reduction in Africa with focus on the role of regional fiscal policy on education and health. The study employs panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation technique and covers the period 1980-2017. The results reveal that foreign aid augmented with effective fiscal policy on education significantly improves the income level in all the regions except Central Africa, and consumption in the Western and Central regions. When augmented with effective fiscal policy on health foreign aid enhances households’ income in West and Central Africa and consumption in West and Southern regions. Furthermore, foreign …
Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje
Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …
Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix
Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …
Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo
Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …
Monetary Policy And Banking Sector Stability In Nigeria, Didigu Chizoba E., Joshua Nsikak J., Okon Joel I., Eze Annette O., Gopar Jurbe Y., Oraemesi Charles N., Udofia Blessing-Oxford U., Yisa Daniel N., Ejinkonye Jude C., Ette Victoria E.
Monetary Policy And Banking Sector Stability In Nigeria, Didigu Chizoba E., Joshua Nsikak J., Okon Joel I., Eze Annette O., Gopar Jurbe Y., Oraemesi Charles N., Udofia Blessing-Oxford U., Yisa Daniel N., Ejinkonye Jude C., Ette Victoria E.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on banking sector stability in Nigeria, utilizing quarterly data for the period 2007Q1 to 2021Q4. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Results show that a long run relationship exist between banking sector stability and monetary policy in Nigeria. Furthermore, monetary policy rate, liquidity ratio, and cash reserve ratio are found to enhance banking sector stability. The study recommends, among others, that cash reserve and liquidity ratios should be kept at levels that will prevent excess liquidity in the system.
Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.
Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, …
Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.
Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyses the relationship between real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Findings show that domestic consumption determines the regime shift in real exchange rate, suggesting a nonlinear linkage with clearly distinct regimes. The lagged exchange rate is shown to have a significant linear effect on the current exchange rate. On the other hand, current foreign consumption is positive but has no significant impact on the exchange rate in the linear part of the model. In the nonlinear part of the model, evidence of a significant negative …
Markovian Approach To Stock Price Modelling In The Nigerian Oil And Gas Sector, Ayo Adekunle S., Uwabor Eboigbe S.
Markovian Approach To Stock Price Modelling In The Nigerian Oil And Gas Sector, Ayo Adekunle S., Uwabor Eboigbe S.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study investigates the stock price movement of quoted Nigerian oil and gas firms using the Markovian model. Specifically, the study estimates the change in likelihoods and steady-state distribution of the share prices of the firms to determine the average time spent by the share price to move to another state and the turnover rate of the selected stocks. Markov chain-based stochastic modelling approach was employed by using the daily closing share prices of all the seven oil and gas firms quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange from April 2017 to January 2020. The study finds that the transition probabilities …
Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.
Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …