Finance Commons^™

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Connectedness Of Uncertainty, Volatility, And Stock Market Performance, Szczepan Urjasz

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This study examines the dynamic connectedness and spillover effects among various financial and economic indicators, including uncertainty indices, market volatility, and stock market indices, from 3 June 2008, to 30 December 2024. This interconnectedness implies that shocks originating in one market or asset class can rapidly transmit to others, underscoring the potential for systemic risk and financial contagion. The US emerges as a significant net transmitter of influence within the global financial system, with the VIX playing a crucial role in influencing global financial conditions. Major European equity markets also transmit influence, while the Geopolitical Risk Index (GRI) and the …

Essays On Empirical Economics, Dorian Abreu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

CHAPTER 1: HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING AND MARKET LIQUIDITY

This paper provides evidence of the impact of High Frequency Trading (HFT) on liquidity. I use data from the NASDAQ OMX that identifies the trades of 26 HFT firms on 120 randomly selected stocks listed on the NASDAQ. I find that HFT improves overall market liquidity. However, the liquidity improvements come at the expense of the non high frequency traders. Results indicate that trades in which the HFT supply liquidity to non HFTs have a significantly wider spreads. This impact is larger for smaller cap stocks. Additionally, price impacts are largest when …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recession, Juliana Yu Sun, Huanhuan Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Utilizing industry-level foreign direct investment (FDI) from 72 source markets to 122 destination markets between 2003 to 2018, we evaluate how cross-border technology investments respond to economic recessions. We find that FDI embedded with intensive research and development (R&D) drops when the destination market is in a recession and the source market is in a normal state and recovers to the pre-recession levels when both destination and source markets are in recession. However, there is little evidence that recessions affect cross-border investments in other aspects of technology measured by the penetration of robots, intellectual property products and information and communications …

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

Unscheduled Events, Stock Returns, And Market Efficiency: A Covid-19 Case Study Of Industry Leaders, Nathan R. Durham

Honors College Theses

This thesis explores the effects of unscheduled events on stock market returns due to increased uncertainty. A case study is done on the Coronavirus pandemic for the dates of March 9th, 2020, through March 23rd , 2020. The findings allow for short-run and long-run narratives where long-run returns, and short-run volatility explain how the role of psychology and different forecasting strategies are used to differentiate industry outcomes and technology sector returns.

Speculation And Returns' Volatility: Evidence From Pakistan Mercantile Exchange, Falik Shear

Business Review

The debate about the role of speculators in commodity markets has been intensified after the financialization. The current study augments the empirical evidence related to speculators and their impact on volatility of commodity markets. In doing so, the study uses daily data between 12th November 2009 to 30th April 2020 for oil and gold future contracts from Pakistan Mercantile Exchange. The findings suggest that speculative activity positively and significantly affects the returns' volatility. These findings support the destabilizing hypothesis, which argues that speculators create distortions in commodity markets. The findings have important implication for market participants (e.g., absence of welfare …

New Factor Structure Models And Idiosyncratic Volatility, Ossama Elhadary

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In this dissertation, I propose new factor structures that are based on the Fama-French style factors but include additional locations like the industry groups and the exchanges where the stocks are traded. I show that the stock returns are clustered around the industry groups and the exchanges. Idiosyncratic volatility calculated using the new factor structure models tend to be smaller than those calculated using the traditional Fama-French model. By sorting portfolios using the idiosyncratic volatility computed using the new factor models, a trader can gain larger profits compared to sorting the portfolio using the traditionally calculated idiosyncratic volatility.

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …

Changes In Sentiment On Reit Industry Excess Returns And Volatility, Daniel Huerta-Sanchez, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

REIT characteristics pose unique risks and benefits to investors who seek liquid diversification and hedging vehicles to complement their portfolios. This paper tests for the asymmetric effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on REIT industry returns and conditional volatility. We simultaneously model the impact of two markedly different groups of investors on the return generating process of the REIT industry. Our findings suggest that noise trading imposes significant systemic risk on the realization of REIT industry returns. Interestingly, corrections in institutional investor expectations have a larger effect on REIT industry returns and volatility than changes in individual investor expectations. …

Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exist that examine the spillover between these implied volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically Hong Kong, plays a central role in implied volatility spillover during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

Are Volatility Expectations In Different Countries Interdependent? A Data-Driven Solution To Structural Var Identification For Implied Equity Volatility Indices, Timothy H. De Silva

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past couple of decades, the number of volatility indices has increased rapidly. These indices seek to represent the market’s expectation of realized volatility over the coming month, based on the prices of options traded on each underlying equity index. Although the dynamics of realized volatility spillover have been studied extensively, very few studies exists that examine the spillover between these volatility indices. By using DAG-based structural vector autoregression, this paper provides evidence that implied volatility spillover differs from realized volatility spillover. Through solving the well-known VAR identification problem for these indices, this paper finds that Asia, more specifically …

Identifying Irrationality And Fear-Driven Reactions To Financial Market Shocks & Terrorism, Kimberly M. Roland

Honors Scholar Theses

Economic research on post 9-11 terrorism lacks a distinction between fear-based reactions and rational financial market behavior in its analysis surrounding terror strikes. The purpose of this paper is to expose and interpret the fear triggered by terrorism in financial markets, and to separate rational market responses from irrational, fear-driven investor reactions. A rational market response follows the efficient market theory (Wang 1993) in which investors alter their behavior based on changes in fundamental values. Becker and Rubinstein (2011) define terror-triggered fear as the magnitude with which subjective beliefs about danger hinder objective risk assessment. I apply this definition to …

The Effect Of New York City Sports Outcomes On The Stock Market, Nir Levy

Undergraduate Economic Review

This thesis investigates whether sports outcomes for New York City based teams affect the daily returns, volatility or trading volume of major stock indexes in the United States. I research whether events that affect local mood in a major financial center can influence national stock indexes by swaying the sentiment of workers in the financial sector. By performing an event study I found evidence that returns are abnormally high following championships won by New York City professional sports teams. Returns are abnormally low and volume is abnormally high following elimination from a championship round.

Does Esg Investment Enhance Investment Returns, Ca. Hemlata Chelawat, I.V. Trivedi

Business Review

Over the past decade, Environmental, Social and Governance Investment or ESG Investment has become a mainstream investment approach in the investment community around the world, especially in the US and Europe. There is increasing evidence from academic and practitioner research around the world that better ESG performance by companies leads to reduction in risks, improvement in financial performance, higher stock market valuations and hence, enhanced returns for investors investing in stocks of such companies. Hence, incorporating ESG factors can lead to better informed and improved investment decisions. This has led to development of ESG indices and fonds, to enable investors …

Asset Price Bubbles With Specific Focus On Stock Prices In Pakistan, Nawaz Ahmad, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Yaseen Ahmed Meenai

Business Review

This research paper is an attempt to investigate Asset Price Bubbles (APB) with reference to Pakistan stock market. The analysis of time series graph shows a linear trend between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Money Supply Index (M2I) whereas a nonlinear trend with stock prices. Moreover, the graph also shows an unequal spread with the stock prices, which indicate Heteroskedasticity. Then, descriptive statistics test shows high Standard Deviations for stock prices compared with CPI and M2I, which indicate a higher volatility in stock prices. Finally, the hypothesis test for equality of variance concluded the presence of Asset Price Bubbles by …

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Leveraged Etfs And Intraday Volatility, Adam Welker

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This study provides an empirical analysis to determine whether leveraged exchange-traded funds are contributing to excess intraday volatility. The study, which is centered aroudn the introduction dates of six leveraged ETFs, uses high-frequency TAQ data for the S&P 500 constituent stocks to compare volatility before and after the introduction dates. Realized volatility is calculated for the morning, afternoon, and entire trading day during the twenty trading days before, and twenty trading days after each date of interest. There has been a lot of debate recently about whether leveraged ETFs could be increasing swings in intraday volatility. Up until now, this …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

The Impact Of Tarp Bailouts On Stock Market Volatility And Investor Fear, Daniel Huerta, Daniel Perez-Liston, Dave Jackson

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 was the response of the Federal government to the economic crisis of 2007-2009. Within this act, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was the mechanism to attempt to stabilize the financial market through the injection of liquidity into troubled firms. This paper examines the effect of TARP bailouts on stock market volatility and investor fear. Using an event study methodology, we find evidence of a significant decrease in stock-market volatility on the day of bailouts, and the day after. Additionally, findings show that the VIX, a proxy of investor fear, significantly declines on …

Essays On Investment Fluctuation And Market Volatility, Chaoqun Lai

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This dissertation includes two different groups of objects in macroeconomics and financial economics. In macroeconomics, the aggregate investment fluctuation and its relation to an individual firm's behavior have been extensively studied for the past three decades. Most studies on the interdependence behavior of firms' investment focus on the key issue of separating a firm's reaction to others' behavior from reaction to common shocks. However, few researchers have addressed the issue of isolating this endogenous effect from a statistical and econometrical approach. The first essay starts with a comprehensive review of the investment fluctuation and firms' interdependence behavior, followed by an …

Test For Infinite Variance In Stock Returns, Xian Ning Yan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The existence of second order moment or the finite variance is a commonly used assumption in financial time series analysis. We examine the validation of this condition for main stock index return series by applying the extreme value theory. We compare the performances of the adaptive Hill's estimator and the Smith's estimator for the tail index using Monte Carlo simulations for both i.i.d data and dependent data. The simulation results show that the Hill's estimator with adaptive data-based truncation number performs better in both cases. It has not only smaller bias but also smaller MSE when the true tail index …

Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.

Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.

Dynamical Volatilities For Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Kyungsik Kim, Seong-Min Yoon, C. Christopher Lee, Myung-Kul Yum

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

We study the continuous time random walk theory from financial tick data of the yen-dollar exchange rate transacted at the Japanese financial market. The dynamical behavior of returns and volatilities in this case is particularly treated at the long-time limit. We find that the volatility for prices shows a power-law with anomalous scaling exponent κ = 0.96 (one minute) and 0.86 (ten minutes), and that our behavior occurs in the subdiffusive process. Our result presented will be compared with that of recent numerical calculations.

Some Evidence On The Information Content Of Undisclosed Limit Orders On The Asx, M Aitken, David E. Allen, Wenling Yang

Research outputs pre 2011

This paper is concerned with investigating the information content of undisclosed limit orders, identifying factors that affect their sizes, and examining brokers’ behavior in using undisclosed orders. Our estimation results from a sample stocks listed on the ASX indicate that the size of undisclosed orders are affected by a number of factors. Given the ‘stealth trading’ pattern observed in large disclosed limit orders, this paper provides evidence to support a similar pattern in the case of undisclosed limit orders as well. Our model also provides a statistical measure for estimating the size of undisclosed orders.