Finance Commons^™

The S&P 500© Is Not A Leading Indicator For Us Gdp Over Policy-Relevant Time Frames, William D. Campbell Sr.

Masters Theses

Simply, we find S&P 500© returns are no longer a statistically meaningful leading indicator for growth in "real" per capita GDP. Technically, we find the SP500 fails to Granger cause real per capita GDP over policy relevant time frames while confirming nominal (non-inflation adjusted) SP500 quarterly returns continue to Granger cause one-period ahead quarterly growth in inflation adjusted (real) US Per-Capita GDP over very long (and perhaps less meaningful from fiscal and monetary perspectives) time frames. In addition, we identify a likely transition period when the SP500 switched from a leading indicator to a lagging indicator. Therefore, in keeping with …

Three Essays On Private Market Interactions, Jonathan Daigle

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The first study addresses why insurers, whom traditionally invest in relatively safe assets, choose to invest in private equity (PE). Using insurer financial disclosures, we test theories relating how risk shifting, managerial discretion, underinvestment, asset liability matching, regulation, home bias, and reaching for yield affect PE investment. Results indicate risk¬ shifting and managerial discretion by stock insurers does not factor into the PE investment decision. In addition, results confirm home bias positively influences PE investment while underinvestment, asset liability matching, and regulation deter PE investment. Finally, insurers have not increased their PE allocation due to low-yield interest rate environments. The …

Epic: A Real Property Investment And Management Company, James E. Larsen

Finance and Financial Services Faculty Publication

No abstract provided.

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Australian Real Estate Stock Reactions To Firb Regulation Changes, Henry Wei

CMC Senior Theses

This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.

Order Execution Quality In Equity Options Markets, Todd Gardner Griffith

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In Part 1, we examine the effects of an order cancellation fee on limit order behavior and execution quality on the NASDAQ OMX PHLX. We find that the cancellation fee is effective in reducing the rate at which limit orders are submitted and subsequently deleted. Order volume declines, however, the remaining displayed orders appear to constitute more genuine liquidity, as the duration of canceled orders lengthens. The reduction in order cancellation activity is associated with lower effective spreads and higher order fill rates. We also find that differences in trading venues and option characteristics are important determinants of order cancellations …

Does Fundamental Analysis Lead To A Rudimentary Momentum Strategy For The Inexperienced Investor? Evidence From A Student Investment Fund, Nicholas J. Lillie

CMC Senior Theses

Using the Student Investment Fund at Claremont McKenna College as a proxy for inexperienced investors, I demonstrate that inexperienced investors using fundamental analysis produce momentum-like buying patterns. The results show that the Student Investment Fund is on average buying stocks that outperform Carhart’s four-factor asset pricing model in the year before purchase. As a result, the Student Investment Fund has, on average, underperformed the S&P500 by .48% per year since 1996. My thesis explores why the Student Investment Fund may have adopted momentum-like purchasing patterns and what steps can be taken to remedy it.

Are Donald Trump And Hillary Clinton Controlling The Stock Market? An Analysis Of The 2016 Presidential Election's Impact On Stock Market Volatility, Julia Tambone

Scripps Senior Theses

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ran highly controversial campaigns in the 2016 Presidential Election, which then leaves us with the question of what impact is this having on the current economy? Prior analysis of political influence on the stock market tells us that isolating political impact on the stock market is nearly impossible. However, there are clearly defined 4-year cycles in stock prices that seem to correspond with election years. In this paper, I create my own index of stocks in the four major U.S. industries and measure both day-to-day and intraday volatility in stock prices across three comparable time …

اطار مقترح لتطبيق الموازنة الصفرية لتطوير الاداء المالي (دراسة تحليلية لآراء عينة من دوائر محافظة المثنى ), حيدر عباس عبد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

سعت هذه الدراسة الى بيان مدى الاستفادة من تطبيق نظام الموازنة الصفرية كأحد أدوات الرقابة على الاداء المالي للوحدات الحكومية الخدمية التي تطبق النظام المحاسبي الحكومي في معالجة الازمات المالية التي يمر بها البلد حالياً وذلك من خلال التطبيق على عينة من دوائر محافظة المثنى (جامعة المثنى ,دائرة الصحة , ومديرية التربية). وقد هدفت الدراسة تحديد مدى توفر متطلبات تطبيق الموازنة الصفرية في الوحدات الحكومية وبيان أثر تطبيق الموازنة الصفرية في تحسين الاداء المالي في الوحدات الحكومية عينة البحث تجاه تطبيق الموازنة الصفرية واهميتها ومحاولة وضع اطار مقترح لتطبيق الموازنة الصفرية ، ولتحقيق أهداف الدراسة لقد صمم الباحث استمارة استبانة …

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …

Stock Returns And Interest Rates Around The World: A Panel Data Approach, Tibebe A. Assefa, Omar A. Esqueda, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine quarterly stock returns of 21 developed and 19 developing economies from 1999 to 2013. Over this period, mean quarterly stock returns of 1.188% in developed economies contrast to 4.220% in developing economies. Economic growth has been substantially lower and interest rates have fallen (risen) in developed (developing) economies. Using dynamic panels, we find statistically significant negative effects of interest rates on stock returns in the developed countries, consistent with the expected cash flow hypothesis. In the developing markets, however, the world market portfolio is the sole determinant of stock returns. The contrasting effect of interest rates change on …

Nipa Imputed Interest, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

4:23 PM    

Claude responded: This collection includes:

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). [Handwritten folder label identifying contents as "NIPA imputed interest / BEA email"; handwritten notation on folder tab: "Tenure reviews 2016/2017"]. Unpublished manuscript note. New School for Social Research.
• Terroni, E. (2010, August 27). Answer to your question on imputed interest [Email with attachment: imputed interest.pdf, sent to [email protected]]. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. (ca. 2010). Imputed interest paid and received by commercial banks [Methodological document attached to email correspondence]. U.S. Department of Commerce. …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 20, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

واقع الاقتصاد العراقي ومتطلبات اصلاحه, ثامر عبد العالي كاظم

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يعد العراق من الدول التي تعاني من تدهور كبير في معدلات النمو الاقتصادي الذي يمثل الهدف الرئيس لجميع الدول ، اذ لا يمكن تصور عملية التنمية بدون ان تكون هناك معدلات مرتفعة ومستمرة من النمو الاقتصادي ، والعراق يعتمد منذ امد بعيد وحتى اليوم على القطاع النفطي الذي يهيمن على نسبة كبيرة تتراوح بين 40 – 62 % من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي و 78 – 98 % من ايرادات الموازنة العامة للدولة وعلى ما نسبته 83 – 99 % من اجمالي الصادرات خلال المدة 2003 – 2014 ، تؤكد هذه البيانات وجود اختلالات بنيوية كبيرة جعلت الاقتصاد العراقي مرهون بتبعيته …

Investor's Sentiment In Predicting The Effective Federal Funds Rate, Artem Meshcheryakov, Stoyu Ivanov

Faculty Publications

In this article we study if investor's sentiment measured by an intensity of Google searches may be used to predict future changes of the Effective Federal Funds rate. We find that online searches for “fed funds rate”, “fed interest rate”, “fed reserve”, “fed reserve rate” and “federal interest rate” are associated with next week decrease of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Google searches for “fed rate hike” and “fed raise rates” are associated with next week increase of the Effective Federal Funds Rate even after we control for a number of macroeconomic indicators. We also find that intensity of Google …

The Puzzle Of Pdvsa Bond Prices, Paolo Colla, Anna Gelpern, Mitu Gulati

Faculty Scholarship

Market reports in the summer of 2016 suggest that Venezuela is on the brink of default on upwards of $65 billion in debt. That debt comprises of bonds issued directly by the sovereign and those issued by the state-owned oil company PDVSA. Based on the bond contracts and other legal factors, it is not clear which of these two categories of bonds would fare better in the event of a restructuring. However, market observers are convinced — and we agree — that legal and contractual differences would likely impact the payouts on the bonds if Venezuela defaults. Using a comparison …

Determinants Of Inward Foreign Direct Investment From China, South Korea And Japan And Its Contribution To Economic Growth In Cambodia, Puthi Phan Kan

Chulalongkorn University Theses and Dissertations (Chula ETD)

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased globally since the late 1980s. It increased rapidly in Cambodia in the past two decades. This paper aims to examine the determinants of inward FDI from China, South Korea and Japan and its contribution to economic growth in Cambodia during 1994-2014, using both time series analysis by country and the panel data analysis. The results on the determinants of FDI show that real GDP, bilateral trade between the countries, exchange rate, inflation rate, and relative labor productivity are statistically significant and have positive impact on inward FDI flows into Cambodia, and inward FDI from …

Do Disaster Experience And Knowledge Affect Insurance Take-Up Decisions?”, Jing Cai, Changcheng Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the effect of experience and knowledge on weather insurance adoption. First, we conduct insurance games with farmers, and find that the treatment improves real insurance take-up by 46%. The effect is not driven by changes in risk attitudes and perceived probability of disasters, or by learning of insurance benefits, but is driven by the experience acquired in the game. Second, we find that providing information about the payout probability has a strong positive effect on insurance take-up. Finally, when subjects receive both treatments, the probability information has a greater impact on take-up than does the disaster experience.

Are Shorts Equally Informed? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Short selling predicts future stock returns globally. We use 11 short-sale measures to examine the informativeness of short sales in 38 countries for the July 2006 to December 2014 period. We find that different short-sale measures display different return predictability. The days-to-cover ratio and loan supply measures have the most robust predictive power in the global capital market. We also document significant cross-country differences in the predictive power of the short selling measures and find that return predictability is stronger in countries with mild forms of short-sale restrictions, better market quality, and more developed markets.

The Financial Crisis And Credit Unavailability: Cause Or Effect?, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

Although the relationship between credit availability and financial decline leading to the global financial crisis was somewhat interactive, a loss of credit availability appears to have caused the financial crisis more than the reverse. The potential for credit unavailability to cause a financial crisis suggests at least three lessons: (i) because credit availability is dependent on financial markets as well as banks, regulation should protect the viability of both credit sources; (ii) diversifying sources of credit might increase financial stability if each credit source is robust and does not create a liquidity glut or inappropriately weaken central bank control; and …

Variation In Boilerplate: Rational Design Or Random Mutation?, Stephen J. Choi, Mitu Gulati, Robert E. Scott

Faculty Scholarship

Standard contract doctrine presumes that sophisticated parties choose their terminology carefully because they want courts or counterparts to understand what they intended. The implication of this “Rational Design” model of rational behavior is that courts should pay careful attention to the precise phrasing of contracts. Using a study of the sovereign bond market, we examine the Rational Design model as applied to standard-form contracting. In NML v. Argentina, federal courts in New York attached importance to the precise phrasing of the boilerplate contracts at issue. The industry promptly condemned the decision for a supposedly erroneous interpretation of a variant of …

A Retrospective Insight Into Pakistan's Exchange Rate Regimes And Their Impact On The Economy, Lalarukh Ejaz, Madeeha Akhtar

Business Review

Nuclear tests carried out by Pakistan in May 1998 had a distinctive impact on the evolution of the exchange rate. This case describes what happened to the exchange rate before and after the nuclear tests and focuses on the overall impact of Pakistan’s transition from a hostile relationship with the US in the post-Cold War era to becoming an ally of the US in the war on terror. This case can be used to study the concepts of real and nominal exchange rates, the linkage between exchange rate policy and external balance, how exchange rate can be used as a …

Luck, Justice And Systemic Financial Risk, John Linarelli

Scholarly Works

Systemic financial risk is one of the most significant collective action problems facing societies. The Great Recession brought attention to a tragedy of the commons in capital markets, in which market participants, from first-time homebuyers to Wall Street financiers, acted in ways beneficial to themselves individually, but which together caused substantial collective harm. Two kinds of risk are at play in complex chains of transactions in financial markets: ordinary market risk and systemic risk. Two moral questions are relevant in such cases. First, from the standpoint of interactional morality, does a person have a moral duty to avoid risk of …

التحديات الاقتصادية للإرهاب و ممكنات تجفيفه مع إشارة لحالة العراق, مهدي خليل شديد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يتناول البحث التحديات الاقتصادية للإرهاب وسبل معالجته من خلال تقديم البرامج والسياسات الاقتصادية التي تساعد في معالجة الفقر والتوزيع العادل للثروة والدخل بين فئات وأفراد المجتمع ، ولاسيما بعد زيادة حدة الإرهاب بعد أحداث 11 ايلول 2001 .على أن البحث استنتج إمكانية تجنب الإرهاب باستخدام المتغيرات الاقتصادية على أساس أن كلا من الإرهاب والاقتصاد إنما يعبران ضمنا عن السلوك الإنساني مع خصوصية كلٍ منهما ، كما استنتج البحث أن البلدان النفطية أكثر عرضة لطموحات الجماعات الإرهابية لسهولة السيطرة على منابع النفط من جهة وضعف وهشاشة مؤسسات الدولة من جهة أخرى ، إلا أن هذا الاستنتاج لا ينطبق على العراق لان …

نظرة تقويمية لجولات التراخيص النفطية, حيدر حسين عذافه

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

لقد برزت الحاجة الملحة للاستثمار في القطاع النفطي بعد عام 2003 وذلك لانخفاض معدلات الإنتاج اليومية، إذ انها لم تتجاوز في أحسن الأحوال 2.5 مليون برميل يومياً، فضلا عن كونه القطاع الوحيد الذي يرفد الموازنة بالتدفقات النقدية، التي تمثل عصب وشريان الحياة الاقتصادية في العراق. ان الإيرادات النفطية متمثلةً بعنصري الكمية المنتجة وسعرها، يعد فيها الأخير عنصراً متغيراً خارجياً لا يمكن التحكم فيه، على الرغم من وجود شبه اجماع بين المنتجين والمستهلكين للنفط، بان أسعار النفط غير مناسبة لكلا الطرفين، جعلت منه قيداً على طبيعة العقود المبرمة ضمن جولات التراخيص، التي ابرمت من اجل زيادة معدلات الإنتاج، والتي أبرزت ضرورة …

قياس دالة التكاليف لتحديد الحجم الأمثل للإنتاج (دراسة مشاريع تربية الدواجن في محافظة المثنى), مقداد جاسم عبد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف البحث إلى دراسة واقع تكاليف إنتاج فروج اللحم وتحديد الحجم الأمثل للإنتاج لمشاريع إنتاج فروج اللحم في محافظة المثنى ,إذ مثلت نسبة عينة المجتمع الى المجتمع الكلي نحو (15%). وتعد من المشاريع الممثلة للدراسة، وأوضحت نتائج البحث ان تكلفة شراء الافراخ شكلت نسبة كبيرة من بنود التكاليف الكلية ثم تليها الأجور والمصاريف وتتبعها أجور الادوية واللقاحات بأقل نسبة وتوصي الدراسة بضرورة دعم المنتجين بتوفير الاعلاف وبأسعار مدعومة وتوجيه المنتجين من خلال إقامة الندوات والمؤتمرات لغرض السيطرة على الامراض وبالتعاون مع دائرة البيطرة في المحافظة ودعم المنتجين من خلال إعطاء القروض لغرض زيادة الإنتاج وتوفير معامل الاعلاف والمناهل وجميع المستلزمات …

دور لجان التدقيق في الحد من ممارسات إدارة الارباح وأثرها على جودة التقارير المالية المنشورة للشركات المساهمة العامة العراقية (دراسة تطبيقية على عينه من شركات التأمين المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية), علاء حسن كريم الشرع

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى التعرف على دور لجان التدقيق في الحد من ممارسات إدارة الارباح وأثرها علـى جودة التقارير المالية المنشورة لشركات التأمين العراقية المدرجة فـي سوق العراق للأوراق المالية. لتحقيق أهداف هذه الدارسة تم تصميم استبانة وزعت على المدققين الداخليين والمحاسبين العاملين في شركات التأمين العراقية العامة بلغ عددها 110 استبانة تم استرداد 100 استبانة وتمت المعالجة الاحصائية المناسبة في التحليل باستخدام البرنامج الاحصائي SPSSوقد توصل البحث الى مجموعة من النتائج نذكر من اهمها أن إعداد تقارير تخص لجان التدقيق وبصفة دورية مرفقة مع التقارير المالية الدورية وبكل صدق وأمانة يمثل دعماً للجان التدقيق لغرض الارتقاء بمستوى جودة التقارير …

The Enterprise Resource Planning (Erp) Systems Implementations According To Critical Success Factors (Csfs) To Add Value For An Organization, Dafer Rzok Saker

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

this paper addresses the adopting of implementations enterprise resource planning ERP system based on critical success factors (CSF). We reviewed the execution of enterprise resource planning (ERP) according to five different areas: USA, Australia, China, Middle East, and EU. During our research, seven CSFs covered to compare five different regions to find the best implementation of ERP. The CSFs that we found are “Fit between ERP and business/process, Project champion ERP strategy and implementation methodology, Communication, Change management culture and programme, Business plan /vision /goals /justification, appropriate business and IT legacy systems”. In these seven CSFs, some were most frequently …

Accelerating Financial Inclusion Through Non-Cash Assistance: Exploring Factor Affecting Beneficiaries Perception, Sartika Djamaluddin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Distribution of social assistance through a non-cash system is a new government breakthrough to increase transfer effectiveness and promote financial inclusion. After the pilot project in 2014, the recent study found that there is a number of beneficiaries who feel the non-cash system is difficult. Therefore they use non-cash facilities to get the transfer only and do not want to use for other financial services. This fact could become an obstacle to financial inclusion. This study aims to investigate what factors influence beneficiaries perception to use non-cash system. We conducted a survey of 139 non-cash beneficiaries in Kabupaten Cirebon, West …

Export Stimuli, Export Stages And Internationalization Pathways: The Case Of Indonesian Smes, Mohamad D. Revindo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries are still constrained to seize the opportunity of trade liberalization as compared to their large counterparts. It has been argued that effective efforts to foster SME export require clear understanding of the factors that stimulate them to export. This study investigates the export stimuli of 385 Indonesian SMEs at different export stages (pre-exporting and exporting) and different internationalization pathways (domestically established exporter and born-global SMEs). Three types of export stimuli are consistently identified as the most important in all sub-samples: the presence of foreign buyers, the confidence in the products and the …