Applied Statistics Commons^™

Advancement Of Iterative Optimization Technology Algorithms Toward Calibration-Free Process Analytical Technology Applications, Adam Rish

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The expansion of spectroscopic process analytical technology (PAT) tools within the pharmaceutical industry has the potential to elevate the current state-of-the-art of pharmaceutical manufacturing by offering opportunities for reduced quality testing times, enhanced process control, and greater production flexibility. Spectroscopic PAT tools are dependent on multivariate models to extract the relevant information from the spectral outputs. However, there is a substantial calibration burden for developing and maintaining these multivariate models that discourages the application of PAT, despite the encouragement from regulators. This has led to an interest in calibration-free methods such as iterative optimization technology (IOT) for spectroscopic PAT that …

An Improved Bayesian Pick-The-Winner (Ibpw) Design For Randomized Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Wanni Lei, Maosen Peng, Xi K. Zhou

COBRA Preprint Series

Phase II clinical trials play a pivotal role in drug development by screening a large number of drug candidates to identify those with promising preliminary efficacy for phase III testing. Trial designs that enable efficient decision-making with small sample sizes and early futility stopping while controlling for type I and II errors in hypothesis testing, such as Simon’s two-stage design, are preferred. Randomized multi-arm trials are increasingly used in phase II settings to overcome the limitations associated with using historical controls as the reference. However, how to effectively balance efficiency and accurate decision-making continues to be an important research topic. …

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

An Analysis Of Lyrical Repetition And Popularity In Popular Music Genres, Josh White

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

This paper examines the correlation between repetitiveness and popularity in the genres of Christian, Country, EDM, Hip-Hop, Latin, Pop, R&B, and Rock. Repetitiveness is defined by the frequency of repeated words in lyrics, and the average number of streams per day defines popularity. This analysis also acknowledges the "popularity" metric provided by Spotify in calculating the correlation. To calculate this correlation, I wrote a program that accesses the Spotify and Genius APIs to gather metadata related to 76,069 songs from 1,246 artists, including data on repetitiveness, tempo, duration, and Spotify's audio metrics of "danceability," "energy," "speechiness," "acousticness," and "instrumentalness." I …

Efficient Fully Bayesian Approaches To Brain Activity Mapping With Complex-Valued Fmri Data: Analysis Of Real And Imaginary Components In A Cartesian Model And Extension To Magnitude And Phase In A Polar Model, Zhengxin Wang

All Dissertations

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) plays a crucial role in neuroimaging, enabling the exploration of brain activity through complex-valued signals. Traditional fMRI analyses have largely focused on magnitude information, often overlooking the potential insights offered by phase data, and therefore, lead to underutilization of available data and flawed statistical assumptions. This dissertation proposes two efficient, fully Bayesian approaches for the analysis of complex-valued functional magnetic resonance imaging (cv-fMRI) time series.

Chapter 2 introduces the model, referred to as CV-sSGLMM, using the real and imaginary components of cv-fMRI data and sparse spatial generalized linear mixed model prior. This model extends the …

Representation Learning For Generative Models With Applications To Healthcare, Astronautics, And Aviation, Van Minh Nguyen

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores applications of representation learning and generative models to challenges in healthcare, astronautics, and aviation.

The first part investigates the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to synthesize realistic electronic health record (EHR) data. An initial attempt at training a GAN on the MIMIC-IV dataset encountered stability and convergence issues, motivating a deeper study of 1-Lipschitz regularization techniques for Auxiliary Classifier GANs (AC-GANs). An extensive ablation study on the CIFAR-10 dataset found that Spectral Normalization is key for AC-GAN stability and performance, while Weight Clipping fails to converge without Spectral Normalization. Analysis of the training dynamics provided further …

Using Probability Theory To Calculate The Odds That Either Candidate Wins The 2024 Presidential Election, Andrew Ruggero

Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the U.S., where the electoral college is used to determine the votes of an election, calculating the odds of a president winning is not as simple as looking at the total vote percentages. With each state not exactly having a proportionally linear amount of votes per its population, the total percentage doesn’t mean much. As such, in order to calculate these odds, we must look at a variety of winning combinations per each candidate. First, we must take into account that swing states are the only ones that matter. Defined as a 5% difference between the two main candidates, …

"Who Wrote The Epistle, God Only Knows": A Statistical Authorial Analysis Of Hebrews In Comparison With Pauline And Lukan Literature, Benjamin J. Erickson

Senior Honors Theses

The authorship of Hebrews has been a point of contention for scholars for the past two millennia. While the epistle is traditionally attributed to Paul, many scholars assert that it carries thematic, structural, and stylistic differences from the remainder of his extant epistles; therefore, many other possible authors have been proposed. Of these, only Luke has other New Testament writings. Therefore, this project conducts a statistical comparison of Hebrews to the Pauline and Lukan corpora using stylometric authorial analysis methods. This analysis demonstrates that Hebrews is stylistically closer to Lukan literature than Pauline (but not to a significant degree), and …

Benthic Community Response To The Impacts Of Proposed Sediment Diversions In Louisiana Estuaries, Jillian C. Tupitza

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Sediment diversions designed to mitigate land loss in coastal Louisiana will likely cause ecosystem-wide shifts. The first diversion, planned for Barataria Bay, will divert fresh water and sediment from the Mississippi River into the surrounding wetlands to help them keep pace with high rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Estuarine benthic communities were used in this study as tools to characterize ecological patterns in the context of anticipated salinity changes. I reviewed relevant literature, conducted a two-year survey of Barataria Bay benthos, executed a reciprocal transplant experiment to describe changes that might occur in both community composition and trophic dynamics, …

Legal Process Durations In Domestic Violence Cases, Gabrielle Meyers, Jon Anderson

Undergraduate Research Symposium 2024

Slow court case processing is a significant concern, particularly in regard to their adverse implications for survivors of serious crimes such as domestic abuse and sexual assault. This study investigates a number of factors that may influence the duration of court case proceedings using court records from three Minnesota counties. Focusing on cases of domestic violence, sexual assault, kidnapping, harassment, stalking, and various other sex crimes, we employ survival analysis methods to explore the effects of various factors on the duration of court case processing. Our analysis considers the effects of factors such as type of crime, form of legal …

The Relationship Between Fatalities In Police Violence And Their Identifying Characteristics: Age, Gender, Race, And Region, Yuechu Hu

Undergraduate Research Symposium 2024

Police violence, highlighted by the George Floyd incident in 2020, has intensified concerns about police brutality and perceived racism in U.S. law enforcement (AP News, 2022). Therefore, we intend to analyze Fatal Encounters data, which documents non-police deaths that occur in the presence of the police in the United States. By creating statistical tables and graphs, as well as applying time-series methods, classification and regression trees, and a multinomial logistic regression model, we find that males and transgender people are more likely than females to encounter victimization during police brutality enforcement for any cause of death. Victims older than 19 …

Optimizing Nba Roster Construction, Nick R. Riccardi

Sport Management - All Scholarship

This study aims to quantify the effect that complementary player types have on team success in the National Basketball Association. Using cluster analysis, player-seasons are redefined from their traditional basketball positions to better encompass the roles that players play. For the 10 seasons of data, the best player for each of the 30 teams in the league is determined and teams are grouped based on the cluster of their best player. Ordinary Least Squares regressions are performed to test what player types fit together best. The results of this study show the importance of complementary workers to a firm’s success.

Can Compiled Player War Predict Mlb Team Win Percentage?, Thomas Hertel

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

The baseball statistic Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a complex yet effective metric for approximating the contribution of a player to his team through representing how many more wins his team ought to earn than with a AAAA player in his stead. The intent of this paper is to test whether the accumulation of player’s WAR can be extended to satisfy another discipline of SABRmetrics, i.e. predicting an entire team’s future performance, through modeling the sum’s correspondence (or lack thereof) to wins. If WAR is shown to extend in this way then franchise front offices could feasibly isolate it as …

Using Multiple Regression Analysis To Determine The Strength Of Certain Factors On Student Absenteeism, Emmitt Antwine

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

During the 2015-16 academic year, approximately 16% of the student population—exceeding 7 million students—were absent from school for 15 days or more. The escalation in chronic absenteeism is influenced by various factors, including poor health conditions, nonstandard work schedules of parents, socioeconomic disadvantages, changes in household compositions, frequent residential relocation, and substantial family responsibilities. Previous research on student absenteeism has examined the negative impacts that chronic absenteeism has had on students in diverse communities such as racial minorities, students with disabilities, and English Language Learners communities. We utilized information obtained from the U.S. Department of Education’s Civil Rights Data Collection …

Factors That Contribute To Completing Gateway Math Course At Southern University, Emma Colvin

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

At Southern University in Shreveport, Louisiana, there are several pathways students can take to complete the institution’s required Gateway Math Courses (GMC). The GMC consists of Math 133, Math 135, and Math 136. Currently, there is a significantly low passing rate for these courses potentially due to several factors such as the student’s math ACT score, the student’s age, whether or not the student took optional developmental math courses beforehand, and whether or not the student took these courses online or in person.

Does The ”Freshman 15” Exist?, Peyton Albritton

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

This experiment was performed to determine whether the environmental changes of adapting from high school to college impact a student’s weight. Using a Google form, we collected data from 58 college students in two Psychology 102 classes, with ages ranging from seventeen to twenty-two. The students were asked a series of questions regarding their age and gender, as well as their eating, sleeping, and activity habit changes. Data was analyzed using hypothesis testing and a t-test.

Injuries On Artificial Turf Vs. Natural Grass In The Nfl, Robert Emory

Mathematics Senior Capstone Papers

The purpose of this research is to determine if artificial turf causes more injuries than natural grass. By referencing different statistics from a sample of games from the 2023 National Football League season. Out of the ten games sampled, five were played on natural grass and five were played on artificial turf. We ran the data collected from these games through two different regression analysis models that output p-values to show what truly caused the injuries. Our model uses a player’s position, height, weight, age, and snap counts along with the field surface type to see how if an injury …

Application And Effectiveness Of Artificial Intelligence For The Border Management Of Imported Frozen Fish In Taiwan, Wen-Chin Tu, Wan-Ling Tsai, Chi-Hao Lee, Chia-Fen Tsai, Jen-Ting Wei, King-Fu Lin, Shou-Mei Wu, Yih-Ming Weng

Journal of Food and Drug Analysis

In Taiwan, the number of applications for inspecting imported food has grown annually and noncompliant products must be accurately detected in these border sampling inspections. Previously, border management has used an automated border inspection system (import food inspection (IFI) system) to select batches via a random sampling method to manage the risk levels of various food products complying with regulatory inspection procedures. Several countries have implemented artificial intelligence (AI) technology to improve domestic governmental processes, social service, and public feedback. AI technologies are applied in border inspection by the Taiwan Food and Drug Administration (TFDA). Risk management of border inspections …

Forecasting Stock Prices Using Arima Models And Technical Analysis, Muath I. Almaiman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the integration of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and technical analysis to forecast stock prices, with a focus on Coca-Cola's (KO) and Netflix’s (NFLX) stocks. It examines the effectiveness of combining ARIMA models, known for their predictive accuracy in time-series analysis, with technical indicators, particularly moving averages. The study evaluates whether this integrated approach can enhance the predictive capability of stocks prices beyond traditional methods. The predictive capability is evaluated using error metrics from the ARIMA models, as well as by assessing the return earned using simple rules based on the technical indicators. Utilizing data spanning …

Session 6: The Size-Biased Lognormal Mixture With The Entropy Regularized Algorithm, Tatjana Miljkovic, Taehan Bae

SDSU Data Science Symposium

A size-biased left-truncated Lognormal (SB-ltLN) mixture is proposed as a robust alternative to the Erlang mixture for modeling left-truncated insurance losses with a heavy tail. The weak denseness property of the weighted Lognormal mixture is studied along with the tail behavior. Explicit analytical solutions are derived for moments and Tail Value at Risk based on the proposed model. An extension of the regularized expectation–maximization (REM) algorithm with Shannon's entropy weights (ewREM) is introduced for parameter estimation and variability assessment. The left-truncated internal fraud data set from the Operational Riskdata eXchange is used to illustrate applications of the proposed model. Finally, …