Applied Statistics Commons^™

When Three Points Aren't Enough: Parameter Estimation In Newton's Law Of Cooling, Alberto A. Condori, Cara D. Brooks, Madeline R. Goldberg

CODEE Journal

We begin with a paradoxical three-point problem where the standard parameter estimation formula fails because temperature data must satisfy a concavity condition reflecting Newton's Law of Cooling's exponential structure. Although a closed-form solution for A exists for equally-spaced measurements, high sensitivity to error motivates the use of overdetermined systems with many measurements. The "profiling over A" technique transforms this three-parameter nonlinear problem into a sequence of simple linear regressions, providing computational efficiency and conceptual transparency. This approach can be generalized to many parameter estimation problems in science and engineering, making it a valuable tool for undergraduates interested in applied mathematics. …

Analysis Of The Influence Of Anthropometric Dimensions Of Postural Ergonomics Using Multiple Linear Regression, Gashbeen Faisal Najmaddin, Edrees Muhammed Tahir Harki

Al-Bahir

Ergonomics is the study of designing and arranging a workspace or product to optimize the “fit” between people and their work, ensuring safety, comfort, and efficiency. The scientific literature indicates that ergonomic perspectives on the workplace are connected to the anthropometrics of societies. This study primarily aims to create a model that integrates multiple predictive variables to estimate the target variable. Multiple linear regression analysis is used to identify how different anthropometric dimensions predict postural ergonomics during prolonged sitting. Based on the regression models’ results, the predicted can be calculated using user anthropometry and existing chair dimensions. Furthermore, the primary …

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Insights For Risk Management And Investment Strategies: Evidence From China, India, And Pakistan Using Bekk-Garch Models, Samreen Fatima, Humera Sultana, Muhammad Najamuddin Dr., Saba Naz

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study investigates the dynamics of volatility and its spillover effects between the stock markets of China, India, and Pakistan, and their respective exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR, and USD/ PKR). Volatility is modeled using the Symmetric and Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) and DCCGARCH (1,1) models, based on daily return series covering the period from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2025. The empirical results indicate that both the employed models are adequate for capturing the volatility dynamics. The findings reveal that the highest value of portfolio weights and hedging efficiency of KSE-100 Index–USD/PKR provide optimal portfolio allocation and highest hedging performance …

What We Know About Accounting Ratios: Methodological Considerations, Wojciech Kuryłek, Oskar Kowalewski

Studia i Materiały Wydział Zarządzania Uniwersytet Warszawski

Purpose: This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the methodological aspects of financial ratio analysis, consolidating dispersed knowledge on the computation, statistical properties, and appropriate usage of accounting ratios.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopts a narrative literature review methodology, systematically surveying published research on financial ratio distributions, normality testing, data transformations, outlier handling, the proportionality assumption, dimensionality reduction techniques, compositional data analysis, and recommended ratio sets for corporate financial research.

Findings: Financial ratios predominantly deviate from normal distributions, exhibiting skewness, excess kurtosis, and sensitivity to outliers. Transformation techniques such as logarithmic, square root, and Box‑Cox methods yield mixed results in …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

Estimasi Underground Economy Triwulanan Di Indonesia Pada Tahun 2010–2023, Ghina Anandhia, Hardius Usman

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Underground economics have a significant impact on economy. Underground economy leads to low potential state revenues from the tax sector. This study estimates the quarterly value of the underground economy in Indonesia from 2010 to 2023 using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results show that the average value of the underground economy in Indonesia is IDR138,392.32 billion, equivalent to 5.36 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.72 percent of tax revenue from 2010 to 2023. GDP and tax burden variables have a positive influence on currency demand.

(R2174) A Stationary First-Order Autoregressive Process With New Discrete Lindley Marginal Distribution, Tégawendé Martin Kabore, Jean-Etienne Ouindllassida Ouédraogo

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This paper introduces a new stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued process with a marginal distribution following the New Discrete Lindley distribution, referred to as NDLINAR( 1). The process is developed to model over-dispersed count time series exhibiting a mixed behavior arising from the combination of multiple distributions. Its statistical properties are thoroughly investigated, and the parameters are estimated using conditional maximum likelihood. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are also analyzed. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated by comparing it with other existing INAR(1) processes through applications to real datasets. Results demonstrate that the NDL-INAR(1) process effectively captures the …

Using Multilevel Modeling To Understand Nested Data, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Researchers in the social sciences often work with nested data, in which individuals are collected in higher level clusters. For example, educational research often involves working with samples in which students are nested within schools. Standard data analyses, such as regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA), yield statistically biased results when this nested structure is ignored. One widely used and effective approach for handling such nested data is multilevel modeling. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the basics of multilevel modeling and to provide the reader with a fully worked example in which the analytic approach and results …

Using Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, And The Bayes Factor To Better Understand The T-Test, Analysis Of Variance, And Regression Results, Holmes Finch

Perspectives on Early Childhood Psychology and Education

Null hypothesis testing is a widely used paradigm for assessing research hypotheses across the social sciences. Despite their ubiquity, researchers have discussed a number of problems and limitations to hypothesis testing and have suggested alternatives that might provide greater depth and explanation of research results. The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of several such alternatives and to show how they can be integrated with one another and with null hypothesis testing in order to provide a more holistic view of research hypotheses.

Preliminary Sonification Of Enso Using Traditional Javanese Gamelan Scales, Sandy Hs Herho, Rusmawan Suwarman, Nurjanna J. Trilaksono, Iwan P. Anwar, Faiz R. Fajary

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Sonification—the mapping of data to non-speech audio—offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos, as a test case for culturally-situated sonification evaluated through complex systems diagnostics. Using parameter-mapping sonification of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index (1870–2024), we encode ENSO variability into two traditional Javanese gamelan pentatonic systems (pelog and slendro) across four composition strategies, then analyze the resulting audio as trajectories in a two- dimensional acoustic phase space. Recurrence-based diagnostics, convex hull ge- ometry, and coupling analysis reveal that the sonification …

Automating Cardiff Model Data Capture In Emergency Departments: Ambient Nlp Integration With Oracle-Cerner Fhir Systems, Simi Augustine, Marco A. Lopez, Jacquelyn Cheun, Chris Papesh

SMU Data Science Review

Violence and overdose events in Las Vegas occur at rates above the national average, with fewer than half of violent injuries reported to law enforcement [2,7]. The Cardiff Model offers a proven framework for standardized data collection and sharing between hospitals and public safety partners, yet many implementations still rely on manual entry. We propose an ambient triage pipeline integrated with Oracle-Cerner electronic health record systems to listen to nurse–patient dialogue, convert speech to text, extract Cardiff fields, and write standards-based FHIR Bundles for analytics. Using SMART on FHIR standards and Cerner Millennium APIs, the study evaluates whether ambient capture …

Estimasi Proporsi Pekerja Anak Pulau Maluku & Papua: Pendekatan Small Area Estimation Hierarchical Bayes Distribusi Beta, Apriani Sofiana, Fauzana Afininnas, Fachrol Mochti, Angga Prayoga, Shafira Husna, Nofita Istiana

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Pekerja anak merupakan isu krusial yang memerlukan penanganan segera untuk mendukung pencapaian target pembangunan global. Pengentasan isu ini menuntut ketersediaan data yang akurat hingga wilayah kecil guna mendukung perumusan kebijakan yang tepat sasaran. Penelitian ini bertujuan menduga proporsi pekerja anak usia 5–17 tahun di kabupaten/kota Pulau Maluku dan Papua tahun 2024 menggunakan metode Small Area Estimation (SAE) Hierarchical Bayes (HB) distribusi Beta. Lima variabel penyerta dari PODES dan regsosek dipilih melalui stepwise regression dan dieksplorasi secara spasial. Hasil pemodelan HB Beta Pulau Maluku dan Papua menunjukkan sebagian besar wilayah masih memiliki RSE tinggi. Untuk meningkatkan presisi, dilakukan klasterisasi wilayah sebelum …

Statistical Analysis Of Log Transformation Effectiveness In Air Traffic Movement Forecasting During Covid-19 In South Africa, John Lehlaka Masekoameng

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

This study evaluates the effectiveness of log transformation in enhancing multiple regression models used to forecast air traffic movements (ATMs) in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 60 monthly observations from October 2016 to September 2021, the analysis incorporates variables such as revenue, lockdown levels, COVID-19 metrics, exchange rates, gross domestic product, and population. Two models are compared: one using raw ATMs and another with log-transformed ATMs as the dependent variable.

While the untransformed model shows stronger explanatory power (R² = 0.904, adjusted R² = 0.891) compared to the log-transformed model (R² = 0.772, adjusted R² = 0.741), the …

Enhancing Education Through Virtual Reality: A Comparative Study Of Vr And Traditional Learning Environments, Shrivardhan Atluri

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Testing For Dice Control At Craps, Stewart N. Ethier

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

Dice control involves “setting” the dice and then throwing them carefully, in the hope of influencing the outcomes and gaining an advantage at craps. How does one test for this ability? To specify the alternative hypothesis, we need a statistical model of dice control. Two have been suggested in the gambling literature, namely the Smith–Scott model and the Wong–Shackleford model. Both models are parameterized by θ ∈ [0, 1], which measures the shooter’s level of control. We propose and compare four test statistics: (a) the sample proportion of 7s; (b) the sample proportion of pass-line wins; (c) the sample mean …

The Moderating Effect Of Income Inequality On The Income–Emissions Relationship In G20 Countries, Zahra Rizky Fadilah, Budiasih Budiasih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study analyzes the moderating effect of income inequality on the income–emissions relationship in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. Findings indicate that the relationship is inverted U-shaped in middle-income G20 countries, but monotonically increasing in high-income G20 countries. Interestingly, income inequality moderates this relationship only in the latter group. These findings suggest that middle-income G20 countries should focus on raising income per capita to mitigate environmental degradation, while their high-income counterparts need to prioritize reducing income inequality to effectively decouple income from emissions.

(R2130) Cusum-Test For Unconditional Variance Change Detection In Bilinear Garch Models, Edoh Katchekpele, Abdou Kâ Diongue, Ben Célestin Kouassi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

We examine CUSUM-type test for detecting changes in unconditional variance within Bilinear GARCH models. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under both null and alternative hypotheses and assess test effectiveness in identifying single structural breaks. Simulation studies support our theoretical results and demonstrate the practical utility of the test.

Comparative Evaluation Of Estimation Techniques For Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries Using The Country-Product-Dummy Regression Framework, Rokibat Adeola Tijani, Taiwo Abideen Lasisi, Dahud Kehinde Shangodoyin, Olasunkanmi James Oladapo

Al-Bahir

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a popular macroeconomic analysis metric used to compare economic productivity and standards of living between countries. This study examines the estimation of PPP within the International Comparison Program (ICP) at Basic Heading (BH) level stage and leverages on the data from the 2011 ICP round. Focusing on five BHs out of 12 BHs across 50 Africa countries, to empirically evaluate the validity of the classical Ordinary Least Square (OLS) assumptions in the estimation of Country Product Dummy (CPD) regressions. Given the widespread use of OLS for BH level PPP computation, a rigorous examination of these …

Syntax-Enhanced Boundary-Aware Named Entity Recognition Model, Chuanming Yu, Bin Deng, Zhengang Zhang

Journal of Scientific Information Research

[Purpose/significance] This study addresses the issue of inadequate perception of entity boundaries in traditional character-level modeling-based named entity recognition models by integrating syntax information containing entity boundary features into the task using a multi-head graph attention network with dense connections. This integration enhances the effectiveness of named entity recognition.

[Method/process] This study proposes a Syntax-enhanced Boundary-aware Named Entity Recognition Model (SynBNER), which utilizes BERT for text semantic representation and integrates syntax information using a dense-connected graph attention network. This integration incorporates implicit entity boundary information from syntax information into word representations, thereby enhancing the model's entity boundary perception capability.

[Result/conclusion] …

A Comparative Study Of Neural Networks And Xgboost Models For Flight Time Prediction, Ioannis Paraschos, Taryn E. Trimble, Eshna Bhargava, Jake Klingler, Benjamin R. Nicolai

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

Flight time prediction plays a crucial role in modern air travel, benefiting airlines and passengers alike. Accurate predictions enable airlines to optimize schedules, allocate resources effectively, and ensure passenger safety and satisfaction. In recent years, machine learning models, such as neural networks and XGBoost, have gained popularity for predicting flight times. This study aims to compare the performance of neural network and XGBoost models in predicting flight times, considering factors such as weather conditions, air traffic control, and aircraft performance. The results indicate that both models are effective, with XGBoost achieving slightly higher accuracy. However, neural networks offer advantages in …

(R2119) New Algorithms For Independent Component Analysis Based On A General Class Of Dependence Criteria, Fatemeh Asadi, Hamzeh Torabi, Hossein Nadeb

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The objective function of numerous well-established Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithms calculate based on specific dependence criteria. This study introduces a distinctive dependence criterion based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for characterizing the independence between two random variables and some of its properties are examined. Then, we propose a class of ICA algorithms based on the introduced dependence criterion. The performance of the algorithm is systematically compared to some previous similar algorithms. The results indicate that the suggested algorithm have fruitful performance rather than some similar previous known algorithms. Subsequently, the proposed algorithms are applied to real-time series data, …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

Enhancing Animal Shelter Operations With Time Series And Machine Learning, Sakava L. Kiv, Donald L. Anderson, Shivam Negi, Jacquelyn Cheun

SMU Data Science Review

Enhancing animal shelter operations through machine learning involves employing a variety of advanced techniques aimed at increasing efficiency, promoting animal welfare, and optimizing resource allocation. This paper explores predictive analytics for adoption rates using regression models to estimate the likelihood of adoption based on historical data, encompassing variables such as breed, health status, and previous adoption trends. Additionally, classification algorithms are utilized to categorize animals by adoption probability, facilitating better resources and marketing prioritization. Clustering algorithms are employed to group animals according to behavior patterns and/or physical health, enabling tailored medical care and enrichment activities that improve their mental and …

Linking Water Quality And Climate Change To Long-Term Trends In Species Abundance In Norwalk Harbor, Viktoria Savatorova, Aidan Kieft, Nicole C. Spiller, Kasey Burns

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

This study examines the effects of environmental changes on fish populations in Norwalk Harbor, focusing on winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), northern pipefish (Syngnathus fuscus), and naked goby (Gobiosoma bosci) as examples of species responding to climate-related shifts. We analyze how water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen correlate with fish abundance. To assess statistically significant differences in catch per unit effort (CPUE) across harbor regions, we applied the Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Dunn's post-hoc test. Seasonal variations in CPUE were examined by comparing monthly catch data for each species. K-means …

Urban Heat Dynamics In Pune: The Influence Of Land Cover And Local Climate, Arpit Tiwari, Preethi Nanjundan, Ravi Ranjan Kumar, Ananya Karmakar, Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Urban areas with high population density and extensive infrastructure development have been experiencing an increasing strain on the local heat budget, leading to a surge in heat-related illnesses and discomfort. This study examined the impact of climate and land use as heat islands in Pune, India, from 2012 to 2023 at six different locations representing varying degree of urbanization. Satellite land cover observations revealed that 55.17% of the total area was urbanized in the city itself, which was limited to 44.8% in 2012. This urbanization has significantly impacted the increasing tendency of maximum temperature (T_max; 0.13℃ to 1.63℃ …

Analysis Of Systematic Trade-Offs Between Military And Healthcare Expenditure Alongside Gdp Growth Of Select Asian And Western Exporting Economies In The 21st Century, Rahul Balamurugan, Carlos Gershenson, Preethi Nanjundan, Hiroki Sayama

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality …

Impact Of Urban Development On Uv Exposure: A Clustering And Machine Learning Assessment, Taufik Roni Sahroni Mr., Verdi Yasin, Lulut Alfaris, Reza Ariefka, Ruben Cornelius Siagian, Mohammad Alfin Karim, Nana Rahdiana, Ade Suhara

Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development

The relocation of Indonesia's capital city is anticipated to promote inclusive economic growth while embracing cultural diversity. However, this transition may affect ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure patterns. The study investigated variations in UV exposure in the IKN region, focusing on urban development factors such as land use and population density that affect public health, sun protection, and skin cancer prevention. The research hypothesized that UV radiation is significantly correlated with these factors. UV Index data from 2010-2023, a hierarchical clustering method, identifies complex data patterns without determining the number of clusters. XGBoost, a machine learning model, was used for handling …

(R2095) On Discrete Hypoexponential Distribution And Integer-Valued Autoregressive Process, K. Krishnakumari, Dais George

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

Discrete distributions provide a substantive contribution in modeling real world frame work. Though a lot of discrete distributions are available in literature, they are inappropriate to model many practical situations. The conventional discrete distributions like geometric, Negative Binomial and Poisson have limited applications in modeling count and lifetime data. This paper introduces a new two parameter discrete distribution namely, discrete hypoexponential distribution by discretizing the well known hypoexponential distribution. Various distributional and structural properties of the proposed distribution are studied. We introduce a first order auto regressive process with the newly proposed distribution as marginal and study the properties. Depending …

(R2116) The Novel Garima Distribution Properties And Nuclear Data Application, Murat Aygün, Ayşe Metin Karakaş

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

This research introduces a new two-parameter Marshall-Olkin Garima distribution model. The novel model has many sub-models that are useful in modeling real-life data, such as the extended Garima distribution, exponentiated Garima distribution, exponential distribution, Lindley distribution, Kumaraswamy Garima distribution, and normal distribution. The proposed model demonstrates a high level of suitability in modeling both reliability and survival data. It is flexible in accommodating various failures. The quantile function, density shapes, hazard rate functions, and order statistics are a few of the statistical features that have been explored. Maximum likelihood estimation methods were employed to estimate the parameters. Using five data …

Cure Rate Analysis Of National Health Insurance Scheme Claims Payment Survival Times In Ghana: The Case Of Pru District, Ahmed Tamimu, Suleman Nasiru, Dioggban Jakperik

Al-Bahir

In this study, cure models have been applied to model National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) claims payment data with cured proportion using Pru District in the Bono East Region of Ghana as a case study. The covariates effects were also modelled to investigate the effects of the covariates on the cured proportion. The estimates of the parameters of the models were obtained by directly maximizing the observed likelihood functions. Most estimates of the parameters of the cure models are significant at 5% significance level. The study revealed that the cured claims payments rate increases over time with an estimated cured …