Applied Statistics Commons^™

Bayesian Designs For Two-Arm Clinical Trials With Time-To-Event Endpoints: Incorporating Historical Data Through Power Priors, Sara Hajraf H. Almutiri

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Bayesian methods provide a flexible framework for time-to-event analysis by incorporating prior information. The power prior offers a systematic way to borrow information from historical data. This approach is especially valuable in clinical research, where historical data can enhance inference in early-phase trials with limited sample sizes. This dissertation develops Bayesian approaches for two-arm survival studies using both closed-form and simulation-based methods. The closed-form inference is derived under exponential and Weibull survival models. Under the proportional hazards framework, the posterior is derived through a normal approximation to the log hazard ratio, allowing inference on the treatment effect when the variance …

A Bump Hunting Approach To Finding Interpretable Data Pockets, Tushar Ojha

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

This dissertation approaches the problem of extracting simple interpretations from local regions of data. This is sometimes called bump hunting because the local regions of interest have a high concentration of a particular output value. This work develops a bump hunting method for discrete-valued tabular data where each bump is modeled by a rectangular region of the input data space so its rule-based description admits a simple logical interpretation that can inform decisions. This method is designed for labeled data where each input feature has a distinct meaning that may or may not be related to the output, and the …

A Data-Driven Approach To Time Series Forecasting And Clustering Of U.S. Regional Drug Overdose Mortality, Koshali Hamy Muthunama Gonnage

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

The increasing rate of drug overdose deaths in the United States poses a critical public health challenge, particularly due to the surge in synthetic opioids and other high-risk substances. This study presents a data-driven framework that integrates time series forecasting and clustering techniques. Monthly mortality data for five key drug types: cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamine, and oxycodone were analyzed using four time series forecasting models: ARIMA, ETS, TBATS, and NNAR. These models were evaluated using standard accuracy metrics RMSE, MAPE, and MAE to assess predictive performance. Signal decomposition approach based on Singular Value Decomposition and subspace modeling was employed to …

The Nature Of Anthropogenically Driven River Drying: Spatiotemporal Causes And Consequences, Eliza Inez Gilbert

Biology ETDs

Streambed drying naturally occurs in over 60% of rivers and streams worldwide. Climate change and human regulation of surface and groundwater have increased drying in naturally intermittent systems and caused perennial systems to transition to intermittency, impacting water security, water quality, and biodiversity. To understand human-induced drying dynamics, we used 12 years of daily drying data along a 154-km regulated reach of the Rio Grande. We conceptualized river drying as a regime analogous to the natural flow regime paradigm and quantified drying magnitude, rate of change, and duration. Although linear models predicting drying magnitude and rate of change were uninterpretable, …

Visualization Of Species Tree Likelihood Under The Multispecies Coalescent Model, Jaimasan Sutton

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

A commonly used tool for evolutionary biologists is a phylogenetic tree that represents the ancestry of a set of species and the evolution of traits. Statistical models can be used to predict the probabilities of gene trees which represent ancestral relationships of genes sampled from species. Because of this, we are able to represent the likelihood of a species tree, which represents the evolutionary history of a set of species, as a function of the counts of gene tree topologies, where each gene tree represents the ancestry of a specific genetic locus for multiple species. Because we can represent these …

Nidus Idearum. Scilogs, Xiv: Superhyperalgebra, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this fourteenth book of scilogs – one may find topics on examples where neutrosophics works and others don’t, law of included infinitely-many-middles, decision making in games and real life through neutrosophic lens, sociology by neutrosophic methods, Smarandache multispace, algebraic structures using natural class of intervals, continuous linguistic set, cyclic neutrosophic graph, graph of neutrosophic triplet group , how to convert the crisp data to neutrosophic data, n-refined neutrosophic set ranking, adjoint of a square neutrosophic matrix, neutrosophic optimization, de-neutrosophication, the n-ary soft set relationship, hypersoft set, extending the hypergroupoid to the superhypergroupoid, alternative ranking, Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), reconciliation between …

Nidus Idearum. Scilogs, Xiii: Structure / Neutrostructure / Antistructure, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this thirteenth book of scilogs – one may find topics on Neutrosophy, Plithogeny, Physics, Mathematics, Philosophy – email messages to research colleagues, or replies, notes, comments, remarks about authors, articles, or books, spontaneous ideas, and so on. It presents new types of soft sets and new types of topologies.

Exchanging ideas with Mohammad Abobala, Ishfaq Ahmad, Ibrahim M. Almanjahie, Fatimah Alshahrani, Nizar Altounji, Muhammad Aslam, Said Broumi, Victor Christianto, R. Diksh, Feng Liu, Frank Julian Gelli, Erick Gonzalez Caballero, Riad Hamido, Yaser Al-Hasan, Ahmed Hatip, Yasin Karmouta, Nivetha Martin, Preda Mihăilescu, V. Lakshmana Gomathi Nayagam, Ze Carlos Tiago de …

Computation Of Separate Ratio And Regression Estimator Under Neutrosophic Stratified Sampling: An Application To Climate Data, Abhishek Singh, Hemant Kulkarni, Florentin Smarandache, Gajendra K. Vishwakarma

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this article, we introduce a novel approach by presenting separate ratio and regression estimators in the context of neutrosophic stratified sampling for the very first time, incorporating auxiliary variables. We have conducted a thorough analysis to estimate these newly proposed estimators' bias and mean square error (MSE) up to the first-order approximation. Theoretically using efficiency comparison criteria, our findings demonstrate the superior performance of these estimators compared to traditional unbiased estimators. Also, numerically based on real-life and artificial data, we have shown the supremacy of the neutrosophic stratified sampling over neutrosophic simple random sampling along with the supremacy of …

Probabilistic Modeling Of Social Media Networks, Distinguishing Phylogenetic Networks From Trees, And Fairness In Service Queues, Md Rashidul Hasan

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this dissertation, three primary issues are explored. The first subject exposes who-saw-from-whom pathways in post-specific dissemination networks in social media platforms. We describe a network-based approach for temporal, textual, and post-diffusion network inference. The conditional point process method discovers the most probable diffusion network. The tool is capable of meaningful analysis of hundreds of post shares. Inferred diffusion networks demonstrate disparities in information distribution between user groups (confirmed versus unverified, conservative versus liberal) and local communities (political, entrepreneurial, etc.). A promising approach for quantifying post-impact, we observe discrepancies in inferred networks that indicate the disproportionate amount of automated bots. …

Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting Using Cloud Dynamics Features Extracted From Ground-Based Infrared Sky Images, Guillermo Terrén-Serrano

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Due to the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, power grids are vulnerable to the projection of shadows from moving clouds. An intra-hour solar forecast provides power grids with the capability of automatically controlling the dispatch of energy, reducing the additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This dissertation introduces a novel sky imager consisting of a long-wave radiometric infrared camera and a visible light camera with a fisheye lens. The imager is mounted on a solar tracker to maintain the Sun in the center of the images throughout the day, reducing the scattering effect produced …

Multiple Baseline Interrupted Time Series: Describing Changes In New Mexico Medicaid Behavioral Health Home Patients’ Care, Jessica Reno

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In 2016, the CareLink New Mexico behavioral health homes program began enrolling Medicaid recipients with the goal of increasing care coordination, improving access to services, and decreasing long-term costs of care for adults with serious mental illness (SMI) and children with severe emotional disturbance (SED). To evaluate these aims, a retrospective interrupted time series study using Medicaid claims data was designed. First, a comparable subset of non-enrolled individuals was selected from the pool of Medicaid recipients with SMI or SED using propensity score matching. Then, segmented regression was applied to three outcomes: total Medicaid charges, number of outpatient behavioral health …

Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Species Trees And Anomaly Zone Detection Using Ranked Gene Trees, Anastasiia Kim

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

A phylogenetic tree represents the evolutionary relationships among a set of organisms. Gene trees can be used to reconstruct phylogenetic trees. The methods in this dissertation focus on the gene tree topologies with emphasis on ranked gene tree topologies. A ranked tree depicts the order in which nodes appear in the tree together with topological relationships among gene lineages. One challenge that arises during phylogenetic inference is the existence of the anomaly zones, the regions of branch-length space in the species tree that can produce gene trees that have topologies differing from the species tree topology but are more probable …

How We Can Extend The Standard Deviation Notion With Neutrosophic Interval And Quadruple Neutrosophic Numbers, Victor Christianto, Florentin Smarandache, Muhammad Aslam

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

During scientific demonstrating of genuine specialized framework we can meet any sort and rate model vulnerability. Its reasons can be incognizance of modelers or information mistake. In this way, characterization of vulnerabilities, as for their sources, recognizes aleatory and epistemic ones. The aleatory vulnerability is an inalienable information variety related with the researched framework or its condition. Epistemic one is a vulnerability that is because of an absence of information on amounts or procedures of the framework or the earth [7]. Right now, we examine fourfold neutrosophic numbers and their potential application for practical displaying of physical frameworks, particularly in …

Constraining The Oxygen Values Of The Late Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway Using Marine Bivalves, Camille H. Dwyer

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

The Western Interior Seaway (WIS) remains an oceanographic enigma, including its circulation, similarity to the open ocean, and the fidelity of geochemical proxies to reconstruct paleoenvironments. Across the late Campanian and early Maastrichtian I test whether: 1) the WIS had unique δ¹⁸O_VPDB compared to other marine settings, 2) increasing oceanographic restriction changed the stable isotope composition, and 3) biases, e.g., taxonomy or diagenesis, influenced stable isotope compositions. Results indicate distinct δ¹⁸O_VPDB in the WIS compared to other marine settings. δ¹⁸O_VPDB values were stable through time, suggesting insignificant oceanographic restriction and a …

Analysis Of Ranked Gene Tree Probability Distributions Under The Coalescent Process For Detecting Anomaly Zones, Anastasiia Kim

Shared Knowledge Conference

In phylogenetic studies, gene trees are used to reconstruct species tree. Under the multispecies coalescent model, gene trees topologies may differ from that of species trees. The incorrect gene tree topology (one that does not match the species tree) that is more probable than the correct one is termed anomalous gene tree (AGT). Species trees that can generate such AGTs are said to be in the anomaly zone (AZ). In this region, the method of choosing the most common gene tree as the estimate of the species tree will be inconsistent and will converge to an incorrect species tree when …

Crustal Seismic Anisotropy Of The Ruby Mountains Core Complex And Surrounding Northern Basin And Range, Justin T. Wilgus

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Metamorphic core complexes (MCC) are distinctive uplifts that expose deeply exhumed and deformed crustal rocks due to localized extensional deformation. Consequently, their detailed structure provide a window into deep crustal mechanics. The North American Cordillera contains numerous MCC, one of which is the Ruby Mountains core complex (RMCC) located in the highly extended northern Basin and Range. To constrain the extent to which anisotropy below the RMCC deviates from the regional Basin and Range average and test the depth dependence of crustal anisotropy we conduct a radial anisotropy investigation below the RMCC and surrounding northern Basin and Range. Data from …

What Affects Parents’ Choice Of Milk? An Application Of Bayesian Model Averaging, Yingzhe Cheng

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

This study identifies the factors that influence parents’ choice of milk for their children, using data from a unique survey administered in 2013 in Hunan province, China. In this survey, we identified two brands of milk, which differ in their prices and safety claims by the producer. Data were collected on parents’ choice of milk between the two brands, demographics, attitude towards food safety and behaviors related to food. Stepwise model selection and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) are used to search for influential factors. The two approaches consistently select the same factors suggested by an economic theoretical model, including price …

Advanced Data Analysis - Lecture Notes, Erik B. Erhardt, Edward J. Bedrick, Ronald M. Schrader

Open Textbooks

Lecture notes for Advanced Data Analysis (ADA1 Stat 427/527 and ADA2 Stat 428/528), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Fall 2016-Spring 2017. Additional material including RMarkdown templates for in-class and homework exercises, datasets, R code, and video lectures are available on the course websites: https://statacumen.com/teaching/ada1 and https://statacumen.com/teaching/ada2 .

Contents

I ADA1: Software

• 0 Introduction to R, Rstudio, and ggplot

II ADA1: Summaries and displays, and one-, two-, and many-way tests of means

• 1 Summarizing and Displaying Data
• 2 Estimation in One-Sample Problems
• 3 Two-Sample Inferences
• 4 Checking Assumptions
• 5 One-Way Analysis of Variance

III ADA1: Nonparametric, categorical, …

A General Procedure Of Estimating Population Mean Using Information On Auxiliary Attribute, Sachin Malik, Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean when some information on auxiliary attribute is available. It is shown that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual mean estimator and other existing estimators. The results have been illustrated numerically by taking empirical population considered in the literature.

A Generalized Family Of Estimators For Estimating Population Mean Using Two Auxiliary Attributes, Sachin Malik, Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean when some information on two auxiliary attributes are available. A class of estimators is defined which includes the estimators recently proposed by Malik and Singh (2012), Naik and Gupta (1996) and Singh et al. (2007) as particular cases. It is shown that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual mean estimator and other existing estimators. The study is also extended to two-phase sampling. The results have been illustrated numerically by taking empirical population considered in the literature.

Correlation Coefficient Of Interval Neutrosophic Set, Said Broumi, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this paper we introduce for the first time the concept of correlation coefficients of interval valued neutrosophic set (INS for short). Respective numerical examples are presented.

A General Family Of Dual To Ratio-Cum-Product Estimator In Sample Surveys, Florentin Smarandache, Rajesh Singh, Mukesh Kumar, Pankaj Chauhan, Nirmala Sawan

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This paper presents a family of dual to ratio-cum-product estimators for the finite population mean. Under simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR) scheme, expressions of the bias and mean-squared error (MSE) up to the first order of approximation are derived. We show that the proposed family is more efficient than usual unbiased estimator, ratio estimator, product estimator, Singh estimator (1967), Srivenkataramana (1980) and Bandyopadhyaya estimator (1980) and Singh et al. (2005) estimator. An empirical study is carried out to illustrate the performance of the constructed estimator over others.

Studies In Sampling Techniques And Time Series Analysis, Florentin Smarandache, Rajesh Singh

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This book has been designed for students and researchers who are working in the field of time series analysis and estimation in finite population. There are papers by Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache, Shweta Maurya, Ashish K. Singh, Manoj Kr. Chaudhary, V. K. Singh, Mukesh Kumar and Sachin Malik. First chapter deals with the problem of time series analysis and the rest of four chapters deal with the problems of estimation in finite population. The book is divided in five chapters as follows: Chapter 1. Water pollution is a major global problem. In this chapter, time series analysis is carried out …

Uniform And Partially Uniform Redistribution Rules, Florentin Smarandache, Jean Dezert

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This short paper introduces two new fusion rules for combining quantitative basic belief assignments. These rules although very simple have not been proposed in literature so far and could serve as useful alternatives because of their low computation cost with respect to the recent advanced Proportional Conflict Redistribution rules developed in the DSmT framework.

Some Ratio Type Estimators Under Measurement Errors, Florentin Smarandache, Mukesh Kumar, Rajesh Singh, Ashish K. Singh

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This article addresses the problem of estimating the population mean using auxiliary information in the presence of measurement errors.