Applied Statistics Commons^™

Developing A Humpback Whale Vocalization Detector Using Machine Learning Models, Lucas Kantorowski

Master's Theses

Humpback whale songs are notoriously complex. Identification of humpback whale song units requires bioacousticians to tediously listen, analyze, and annotate collected sound data. Even sparse data requires listening to the entirety of the collected acoustic data. In this study, three hours of audio containing over one-thousand humpback whale song units was collected in Monterey Bay, California.

Prior studies have seen success using convolutional neural networks by performing image classification on hundreds of hours worth of spectrograms. Our study uses traditional machine learning models, as they are less computationally demanding, and require less data.

We use time splitting and Mel-frequency cepstrum …

Crab: A Novel Clustering Score Using Clustering With Rivals And Buddies For Unsupervised Learning, Allen Choi

Master's Theses

Unsupervised clustering algorithms today are used across a wide variety of fields such as biology, engineering, and industry in order to classify observations into groups where labels are not provided. This can provide important latent information regarding the observations within groups, as well as insight regarding the groups themselves. In order to judge the optimal number of clusters for an unsupervised clustering algorithm, many methods exist such as the Elbow Method and Silhouette Score; however, these methods come with drawbacks and are not necessarily flexible across many unsupervised methods. We present a novel clustering score framework relying on a resampling-based …

Hot Hands Or Chance Happenings? A Simulation-Based Approach For Wnba Teams, Ruben Jimenez

Master's Theses

The hot hand is a polarizing topic in basketball analytics: fans, stakeholders, and even players themselves assert confidently their belief or disbelief in the idea that players who perform well will continue to do so over an extended period of time. Statistical research has been conducted since as early as 1985 to attempt to disprove or prove the existence of this phenomenon. More recent works have refuted the earliest objections to the hot hand’s existence, with conclusions aided by robust simulation techniques. In this work, we compare hypothesis tests using multiple simulation techniques to explore the hot hand at the …

Structured Dynamic Factor Analysis Of Environmental Time Series With Application To Morro Bay Estuary, Jose Garcia

Master's Theses

This thesis develops a structured dynamic factor analysis (sDFA) framework for decomposing multivariate environmental time series into latent biological and physical components. The methodology is applied to five years of high-resolution passive monitoring data collected from two sites in Morro Bay, California from 2020 through 2024. Relative contribution indices are developed based on the structured DFA that measure how much each latent process contributes to each observed variable at any given time. Structured DFA models fit to the application data suggest site-specific patterns in how biological and physical processes affect water quality variables. At the bay mouth location, physical processes …

Multimodal Machine Learning For Soil Burn Severity Mapping Across California Wildfires, Sanjana Checker

Master's Theses

Accurate mapping of soil burn severity (SBS) is critical for post-fire watershed management, erosion risk assessment, and ecological recovery planning, yet traditional field-based approaches remain costly, time-intensive, and spatially limited. This thesis presents a machine learning pipeline for wall-to-wall SBS classification across California wildfires using multi-sensor satellite imagery, terrain derivatives, and bioclimatic covariates. Field-collected SBS observations (n = 2,180) from 52 wildfires occur- ring between 2013 and 2025, sourced from the U.S. Forest Service and CAL FIRE, were used to train and evaluate multiple classification architectures within a Google Earth Engine and Google Cloud-based prediction framework. After upsampling the unburned …

Using Ensemble Disagreement To Stabilize Conformal Prediction Under Distribution Shift, Patrick D. Murphy

Master's Theses

Semantic segmentation of eelgrass from drone imagery is crucial for coastal habitat monitoring, restoration, and management, as these habitats continue to see rapid changes due to climate change and human influence. However, the reliability of generalizing a deployed classification model relies on both high-accuracy segmentation as well as robust uncertainty quantification that holds up when conditions change over years or locations. Conformal prediction (CP) is a method that converts a classifier's output into prediction sets with a guaranteed average coverage level for in-distribution data. However, the “vanilla” conformal score can often under-cover in hard or out-of-distribution (OOD) regions under drift. …

Deep Learning Framework For Option Pricing, Kyle Rytand Bistrain

Master's Theses

Accurately pricing American options with market data presents a significant challenge, as foundational models like the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model rely on assumptions that deviate from real-world financial data -- such as log-normal returns, constant volatility, and no dividends -- and fail to account for the key early exercise feature of American options. While parametric models can adjust for these features, the complexity of the resulting models renders them prohibitively difficult to apply in practice for nonspecialists. In response, modern machine learning (ML) techniques provide a set of flexible and powerful alternatives, and recent research has explored the application of ML …

Bandwagon Behavior In Major League Baseball, Daniel E. Erro

Master's Theses

This study investigates “bandwagon” behavior among Major League Baseball (MLB) fans by analyzing Google search interest data from 2004 to 2019. Drawing on publicly available information from Google Trends, the analysis explores how fluctuations in search activity align with team performance during both the regular season and postseason. Hierarchical linear models are used to estimate expected levels of fan interest based on team performance and market characteristics. Deviations from these expectations during the regular season are interpreted as evidence of bandwagon or anti-bandwagon behavior. A drop-off in interest following playoff elimination is also examined to capture shifts in fan attention …

Data Driven Analysis Of Samara Seed Kinematics And Dynamics, Shashwat Sparsh

Master's Theses

Samara Seeds are a class of fruit most famously belonging to the Acer species and are characterized by their single-bladed geometry and their auto-rotation response during descent. This steady-state auto-rotation response is the subject of aerodynamic analysis which aim to quantify the performance. The period prior to the beginning of steady-state auto-rotation is classified as the transition regime and has not been the subject of intense scrutiny.

This thesis employs a data-driven approach to analyzing the kinematic and dynamic response of these seeds during both the transition and auto-rotation stages of flight to quantify the performance with respect to the …

Policies And Price Controls On The Research And Development Of Orphan Drugs In The United States And The European Union, Bena Pearl Filipczak Smith

Master's Theses

There is substantive literature surrounding the impact of price controls on the research and development (R&D) of new pharmaceutical products. The European Union (EU) and United States (US) are often studied in contrast to examine the influence of price controls as the US has fewer pharmaceutical price controls than the EU.

We find moderate evidence that the US spent more on annual domestic pharmaceutical R&D than the EU between 2004 and 2021, on average, before and after adjusting for GDP growth per capita and year. We find strong evidence that the US increased annual domestic R&D spending at a faster …

Causal Inference Using Bayesian Network For Search And Rescue, Amanda Belden

Master's Theses

People who are considered missing have much higher probabilities of being found dead compared to those who are not considered missing in terms of Search and Rescue (SAR) missions. Dementia patients are incredibly likely to be declared missing, and in fact after removing those with dementia the probability of the mission being regarded as missing person case is only about 10%. Additionally, those who go missing are much more likely to be on private land than on protected areas such as forests and parks. These and similar associations can be represented and investigated using a Bayesian network that has been …

Qwixx Strategies Using Simulation And Mcmc Methods, Joshua W. Blank

Master's Theses

This study explores optimal strategies for maximizing scores and winning in the popular dice game Qwixx, analyzing both single and multiplayer gameplay scenarios. Through extensive simulations, various strategies were tested and compared, including a scorebased approach that uses a formula tuned by MCMC random walks, and race-to-lock approaches which use absorbing Markov chain qualities of individual score sheet rows to find ways to lock rows as quickly as possible. Results indicate that employing a scorebased strategy, considering gap, count, position, skip, and likelihood scores, significantly improves performance in single player games, while move restrictions based on specific dice roll sums …

Recursive Marix Game Analysis: Optimal, Simplified, And Human Strategies In Brave Rats, William A. Medwid

Master's Theses

Brave Rats is a short game with simple rules, yet establishing a comprehensive strategy is very challenging without extensive computation. After explaining the rules, this paper begins by calculating the optimal strategy by recursively solving each turn’s Minimax strategy. It then provides summary statistics about the complex, branching Minimax solution. Next, we examine six other strategy models and evaluate their performance against each other. These models’ flaws highlight the key elements that contribute to the effectiveness of the Minimax strategy and offer insight into simpler strategies that human players could mimic. Finally, we analyze 123 games of human data collected …

Unraveling The History Of Deforestation In The Amazon Rainforest With Statistical Modeling, Ryan Destefano

Master's Theses

The Amazon rainforest, a vital ecosystem of immense biodiversity and global climate significance, faces the ongoing threat of deforestation driven by agricultural expansion. This thesis employs remote sensing techniques, focusing on the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from Landsat satellite imagery, to track land cover dynamics within the Amazon. The study examines historical land cover changes in current plantations in Peru and Brazil, regions where the exact timing of deforestation is uncertain. By analyzing EVI measurements dating back to 1984, inflection points indicative of deforestation events preceding plantation establishment are identified. Statistical modeling techniques, including spline fitting to analyze time …

Using Plankton Edna To Estimate Whale Abundances Off The California Coast: Data Integration And Statistical Modeling, Katherine Chan

Master's Theses

Understanding marine mammal populations and how they are affected by human activity and ocean conditions is vital, especially in tracking population declines and monitoring endangered species. However, tracking marine mammal populations and their distribution is challenging due to difficulties in observation and costs. Using surrounding plankton environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to provide an indirect measure of monitoring cetacean abundances based on ecological associations. This project aims to apply statistical methods to assess the relationship of visual abundances of common species of baleen whales with amplicon sequence variants (ASV) of plankton eDNA samples from the NOAA-CalCOFI Ocean Genomics (NCOG) …

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

Foundations Of Memory Capacity In Models Of Neural Cognition, Chandradeep Chowdhury

Master's Theses

A central problem in neuroscience is to understand how memories are formed as a result of the activities of neurons. Valiant’s neuroidal model attempted to address this question by modeling the brain as a random graph and memories as subgraphs within that graph. However the question of memory capacity within that model has not been explored: how many memories can the brain hold? Valiant introduced the concept of interference between memories as the defining factor for capacity; excessive interference signals the model has reached capacity. Since then, exploration of capacity has been limited, but recent investigations have delved into the …

Incorporating Shear Resistance Into Debris Flow Triggering Model Statistics, Noah J. Lyman

Master's Theses

Several regions of the Western United States utilize statistical binary classification models to predict and manage debris flow initiation probability after wildfires. As the occurrence of wildfires and large intensity rainfall events increase, so has the frequency in which development occurs in the steep and mountainous terrain where these events arise. This resulting intersection brings with it an increasing need to derive improved results from existing models, or develop new models, to reduce the economic and human impacts that debris flows may bring. Any development or change to these models could also theoretically increase the ease of collection, processing, and …

Combining Machine Learning And Empirical Engineering Methods Towards Improving Oil Production Forecasting, Andrew J. Allen

Master's Theses

Current methods of production forecasting such as decline curve analysis (DCA) or numerical simulation require years of historical production data, and their accuracy is limited by the choice of model parameters. Unconventional resources have proven challenging to apply traditional methods of production forecasting because they lack long production histories and have extremely variable model parameters. This research proposes a data-driven alternative to reservoir simulation and production forecasting techniques. We create a proxy-well model for predicting cumulative oil production by selecting statistically significant well completion parameters and reservoir information as independent predictor variables in regression-based models. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) …

The Long-Run Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Infant Mortality, Isabel Miranda

Master's Theses

In the United States alone, each tropical cyclone causes an average of $14.6 billion worth of damages. In addition to the destruction of physical infrastructure, natural disasters also negatively impact human capital formation. These losses are often more difficult to observe, and therefore, are over looked when quantifying the true costs of natural disasters. One particular effect is an increase in infant mortality rates, an important indicator of a country’s general socioeconomic level. This paper utilizes a model created by Anttila-Hughes and Hsiang, that takes advantage of annual variation in tropical cyclones using annual spatial average maximum wind speeds and …

Environmentally-Driven Variation In The Population Dynamics Of Gulf Menhaden (Brevoortia Patronus), Grant D. Adams

Master's Theses

Gulf Menhaden (Brevoortia patronus) is an abundant forage fish distributed throughout the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). Gulf Menhaden support the second largest fishery, by weight, in the United States and represent a key linkage between upper and lower trophic levels. Variation in the population dynamics can, therefore, pose consequences for the ecology and economy in the NGOM. Here we aim to understand variation in the individual and population dynamics of Gulf Menhaden throughout ontogeny and how such variation relates to environmental processes. We utilized a suite of fishery-dependent and –independent, remote sensing, modeled, and in situ data …

Ranking Interesting Changes In Correlation Coefficient Matrix Results From Varying Data Partitions In Causal Graphic Modeling, Yesica Daniela Bravo Gonzalez

Master's Theses

Problem

In life we need to compare situations in order to select the best solution. The study in this paper is about analyzing data (variables), which is also called data mining. There are situations where it is not enough to compare variables among themselves at one specific moment. Sometimes it is necessary to compare the behavior of variables at different periods of time and know how they behave at different times in order to select the best arrangements for any situation.

Method

To find correlation among variables, traffic intersections were simulated so they could be compared, since the correlation coefficient …

A Vegetation Analysis On Horn Island, Mississippi, Ca. 1940 Using Characteristic Dimensions Derived From Historical Aerial Photography, Guy Wilburn Jeter Jr.

Master's Theses

Horn Island is part of the MS/AL barrier island chain in the northern Gulf of Mexico located approximately 18kn off the coast of Mississippi. This island’s habitats have undergone many transitions over the last several decades. The goal of this study was to quantify habitat change over a seventy year period using historical black and white photography from 1940. Using present NAIP imagery from the USDA, habitat structure was estimated by using geo-statistics, and second order statistics, from a co-occurrence matrix, to characterize texture for habitat classification. Percent land cover was then calculated to determine overall land cover change over …

A Proof Of Concept For Crowdsourcing Color Perception Experiments, Ryan Nathaniel Mcleod

Master's Theses

Accurately quantifying the human perception of color is an unsolved prob- lem. There are dozens of numerical systems for quantifying colors and how we as humans perceive them, but as a whole, they are far from perfect. The ability to accurately measure color for reproduction and verification is critical to indus- tries that work with textiles, paints, food and beverages, displays, and media compression algorithms. Because the science of color deals with the body, mind, and the subjective study of perception, building models of color requires largely empirical data over pure analytical science. Much of this data is extremely dated, …

Investigation Of Trends And Predictive Effectiveness Of Crash Severity Models, James E. Mooradian

Master's Theses

This thesis describes analysis using ordinal logistic regression to uncover temporal patterns in the severity level (fatal, serious injury, minor injury, slight injury or no injury) for persons involved in highway crashes in Connecticut, focusing on the demographic split between senior travelers (65 years and over) and non-senior travelers. Existing state sources provide data describing the time and weather conditions for each crash and the vehicles and persons involved over the time period from 1995 to 2009 as well as the traffic volumes and the characteristics of the roads on which these crashes occurred. Findings indicate an overall increase in …

Improvement Of Statistical Process Control At St. Jude Medical's Cardiac Manufacturing Facility, Christopher Lance Edwards

Master's Theses

Sig sigma is a methodology where companies strive to reproduce results ending up having a 99.9996% chance their product will be void of defects. In order for companies to reach six sigma, statistical process control (SPC) needs to be introduced. SPC has many different tools associated with it, control charts being one of them. Control charts play a vital role in managing how a process is behaving. Control charts allow users to identify special causes, or shifts, and can therefore change the process to keep producing good products, free of defects.

There are many factories and manufacturing facilities having implemented …

Software Internationalization: A Framework Validated Against Industry Requirements For Computer Science And Software Engineering Programs, John Huân Vũ

Master's Theses

View John Huân Vũ's thesis presentation at http://youtu.be/y3bzNmkTr-c.

In 2001, the ACM and IEEE Computing Curriculum stated that it was necessary to address "the need to develop implementation models that are international in scope and could be practiced in universities around the world." With increasing connectivity through the internet, the move towards a global economy and growing use of technology places software internationalization as a more important concern for developers. However, there has been a "clear shortage in terms of numbers of trained persons applying for entry-level positions" in this area. Eric Brechner, Director of Microsoft Development Training, suggested …