Meteorology Commons^™

Probability Distributions And Threshold Selection For Monte Carlo–Type Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Sarah Collins, Denis N. Botambekov, William P. Roeder

Aeronautics Faculty Publications

Probabilistic wind speed forecasts for tropical cyclones from Monte Carlo–type simulations are assessed within a theoretical framework for a simple unbiased Gaussian system that is based on feature size and location error that mimic tropical cyclone wind fields. Aspects of the wind speed probability data distribution, including maximumexpected probability and forecast skill, are assessed. Wind speed probability distributions are shown to be well approximated by a bounded power-law distribution when the feature size is smaller than the location error and tends toward a U-shaped distribution as the location error becomes small. Forecast skill (i.e., true and Heidke skill scores) is …

Overview Of The Integrated Pest Management (Ipm) Terrain And Activities In Furtherance Of The Walmart Initiative To Purchase Fresh Vegetables From Local Growers In Alabama, Franklin Quarcoo, Conrad Bonsi

Professional Agricultural Workers Journal

Tuskegee University has been providing various types of technical expertise to limited resource farmers who have been supplying Walmart with collard greens, watermelons and purple hull peas. A number of pests bedevil the cultivation of these crops; cost-effective management methods for these pests are needed. The objectives of this paper are to document the IPM activities associated with supplying produce to Walmart; summarize pest problems encountered on the afore-stated crops; recommend IPM methods suitable for limited resource farmers; and suggest other activities that ensure that farmers incur even less pest-related crop losses. Anthracnose was the major pest encountered on watermelons. …

An Analysis Of Public Perception And Response To Hurricane Sandy, Lindsay L. Rice

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane Sandy made landfall in Brigantine, New Jersey on October 29th, 2012. The storm impacted the coastal regions of New Jersey and New York, especially the heavily populated area of New York City. This research, which analyzes secondary data obtained from a telephone survey, investigates the public response of residents before, during and after Hurricane Sandy. The survey consisted of questions regarding what the residents expected concerning the threat of Hurricane Sandy, whether it matched what they experienced, where they got their information and how they made their decision to evacuate or not. The results from the survey were statistically …

Metr 12: Global Warming Course Redesign, Eugene Cordero

Innovative Teaching – Course Redesign Project Posters 2014

Poster summarizing course redesign activities for METR 12: Global Warming.

Metr 060 & 061: Introduction To Meteorology Course Redesign, Alison Bridger

Innovative Teaching – Course Redesign Project Posters 2014

Poster summarizing course redesign activities for METR 060 & 061: Introduction to Meteorology.

Sfa Weather Station-April 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape- Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought climate recap ................. 3

Drought impacts .........................4

DroughtAtlas ..............................8

Missouri River Basin pilot ............ 9

NASA Horn of Africa project ............... 10

U2U tools and social science ............. 12

Consulting for Turkey................. 14

Czech drought monitoring ......... 14

Synoptic Typing And Precursors Of Heavy Warm-Season Precipitation Events At Montreal, Québec, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum, Giselle Dookhie

Publications

A precipitation climatology is compiled for warm-season events at Montreal, Québec, Canada, using 6-h precipitation data. A total of 1663 events are recorded and partitioned into three intensity categories (heavy, moderate, and light), based on percentile ranges. Heavy (top 10%) precipitation events (n = 166) are partitioned into four types, using a unique manual synoptic typing based on the divergence of Q-vector components. Type A is related to cyclones and strong synoptic-scale quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent, with high-θe air being advected into the Montreal region from the south. Types B and C are dominated by frontogenesis (mesoscale QG forcing …

A Climatological Study Of Drought In Southern Michigan, Rudy Bartels

Masters Theses

Drought has become a reoccurring phenomenon throughout many regions around the world. Significant drought conditions have beenobserved overthe pastfive decades in relation to economic, social, and agricultural impacts. In this study, Southern Michigan is investigated over the past 52 years from 1960-2012. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) will be calculated over a 6-month timescale from monthly precipitations. Three variables including 500-mb heights, surface pressure maps, and sea surface temperatures, will be correlated with the SPI using sliding correlations and Pearson's R correlation to determine any relations between these variables and precipitation variations. We will further investigate the five driest, wettest, …

Finite Element Modeling Of Macro Fiber Composite Actuators With Application To Wing De-Icing, Boutros Youssef Azizi

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Icing can have a profound impact on aircraft performance during inclement weather conditions. Aircraft icing primarily occurs on the leading edge of wings, tails and engines. The de-icing/anti-icing technologies currently in use are typically bulky, heavy, cover the entire airfoil surface and consume high energy. These drawbacks highlight the need for a de-icing technique that can overcome some or all of the aforementioned problems. Therefore, in this thesis, a proposed de-icing technique is studied in which lightweight Macro Fiber Composite (MFC) actuators are used to break the adhesive bond between the leading edge of a wing and an accumulated ice …

Cloud-Scale Ice-Supersaturated Regions Spatially Correlate With High Water Vapor Heterogeneities, Minghui Diao, Mark Zondlo, Andrew Heymsfield, L. Avallone, M. Paige, Stuart Beaton, T. Campos, D. Rogers

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Cirrus clouds have large yet uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. Ice supersaturation (ISS) – where the relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) is greater than 100% – is the prerequisite condition of ice nucleation. Here we use 1 Hz (~230 m) in situ, aircraft-based observations from 87° N to 67° S to analyze the spatial characteristics of ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs). The median length of 1-D horizontal ISSR segments is found to be very small (~1 km), which is 2 orders of magnitude smaller than previously reported. To understand the conditions of these small-scale ISSRs, we compare individual ISSRs with …

Validation Of The Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems, William B. Clements

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS), Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), 20km Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS20) and 4km Mesoscale Prediction System (MEPS4), were evaluated from April to October 2013 for 10 locations around the world to determine how accurately forecast probabilities for wind and precipitation thresholds and lightning occurrence match observed frequencies using Aerodrome Routine Meteorological Reports (METARs) and Aerodrome Special Meteorological Reports (SPECIs). Reliability diagrams were created for each forecast hour detailing the Brier skill score (BSS) to depict EPS performance compared to climatology for each site and score composition through reliability, resolution and uncertainty. …

Day/Night Visible Satellite Images, Frederick R. Mosher

Frederick R. Mosher

Visible satellite images are very helpful for a wide variety of users. In particular, they are helpful in identifying areas of clouds and fog for general aviation pilots who must fly within sight of ground. However, visible satellite images have several major drawbacks, such as at night the visible pictures are black. Another problem is that it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between high clouds and low clouds. While the infrared channel can be used at night, frequently the low clouds and fog are near the temperature of the ground, so low clouds do not show up well on infrared …

Analysis Of Causes Of Icing Conditions Which Contributed To The Crash Of Continental Flight 3407, Frederick R. Mosher, Debbie Schaum, Chris Herbster, Tom Guinn

Frederick R. Mosher

On February 12, 2009, at 10:20 p.m. EST, Continental Connection Flight 3407 from Newark to Buffalo crashed 5 miles short of the runway at Buffalo, killing all 49 people on board and one person on the ground. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is still investigating the crash, but preliminary reports show the airplane was experiencing icing conditions before the crash. Preliminary reports indicate that the pilot did not respond properly to the icing conditions, which contributed to the crash. However, the presence of the icing conditions which were significant enough to cause aircraft problems needs further investigation to determine …

Attempting To Turn Night Into Day; Development Of Visible Like Nighttime Satellite Images, Frederick R. Mosher

Frederick R. Mosher

Visible satellite images have long been used in aviation flight planning. The visible satellite images show a variety of phenomena of interest to aviation, including fog, low clouds, thunderstorms, etc. Since one’s eyes detect visible light, the visible satellite image is easier for untrained personnel to interpret than other bands. The biggest problem with the visible images is that they are not available at night. However, other channels on the satellites can be used to develop a derived satellite product which looks very much like a visible satellite image. This derived product can then be inserted into the nighttime portions …

Global Satellite Images For Aviation Operations, Frederick R. Mosher, James Block

Frederick R. Mosher

Flight planning and flight following dispatch operations require information on potential flight hazards. Hazards such as thunderstorms, turbulence, icing, fog, volcanic ash, etc., are potential problems which are not always forecast adequately by numerical models. Satellite images are used to monitor the weather conditions causing existing flight hazards, as well as being used to identify the development of new hazards.

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Sfa Weather Station-March 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Day/Night Visible Satellite Images, Frederick R. Mosher

Frederick R. Mosher

Visible satellite images are very helpful for a wide variety of users. In particular, they are helpful in identifying areas of clouds and fog for general aviation pilots who must fly within sight of ground. However, visible satellite images have several major drawbacks, such as at night the visible pictures are black. Another problem is that it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between high clouds and low clouds. While the infrared channel can be used at night, frequently the low clouds and fog are near the temperature of the ground, so low clouds do not show up well on infrared …

Sfa Weather Station-February 2014, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.