A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, 2018 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad
Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal
This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a ...
Gis Modeling Of The Prominent Geohazards In Arkansas, 2018 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Gis Modeling Of The Prominent Geohazards In Arkansas, Kyle Walker Rowden
Theses and Dissertations
The State of Arkansas is prone to numerous geohazards. This thesis is a twofold study of prominent geohazards in Arkansas: the first fold includes a novel triggerless approach for mass wasting susceptibility modeling applied to the Boston Mountains in NW Arkansas, and the second fold is a GIS-based regression modeling of the extreme weather patterns at the state level. Each study fold is presented in this thesis as a separate chapter embracing a published peer-reviewed paper. In the first paper, I have used the analytical hierarchy process to assign preliminary statistical weights to the most cogent variables influencing mass wasting ...
How College Campuses Are Using Social Media During Severe Weather Events, 2018 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
How College Campuses Are Using Social Media During Severe Weather Events, Emmale Davis
Theses and Dissertations
This study explores how college campuses are using social media during severe weather events. This topic surfaced after a tornado devastated Moore, Oklahoma in May 2013 and those displaced flocked to the University of Oklahoma campus after a post made on Twitter went viral prior to an official message being sent out by the university. In order to further explore this topic, a qualitative phenomenological case study was conducted at the following sites: University of Alabama, Missouri Southern State University, University of Oklahoma, and Florida State University. This study included observations of social media posts on Facebook and Twitter on ...
An Analysis Of Urban Heat Islands In Kentucky, 2018 Western Kentucky University
An Analysis Of Urban Heat Islands In Kentucky, Logan Mitchell
Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects
The purpose of this research is to increase understanding of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Kentucky by studying its three largest cities: Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green. By examining the UHIs of these three cities, two major attributes can be determined: if there is a relationship between the size of the city by population and the UHI magnitude, and if UHI magnitude follows any diurnal and/or seasonal cycles. Data was collected from weather stations within the three major cities, as well as from weather stations located in the rural areas surrounding them. The length of the time ...
The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, 2018 University of Nebraska-Lincoln
The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes
Honors Theses, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is ...
Mathematics Of The Significant Tornado Parameter, 2018 Stephen F Austin State University
Mathematics Of The Significant Tornado Parameter, Aaron Baker
Undergraduate Research Conference
The idea of this project came from my curiosity of weather and especially how severe storms are predicted. There are many parameters used to predict severe weather that use mathematical formulas. After sorting through the parameters, the STP was the one selected due to its use of other parameters for prediction of tornadoes, as well as concepts used in Single and Multi-Variable Calculus, such as areas between curves and vector magnitude and direction, and learning how to use new graphs than what is normally used.
Introduction To Weather And Climate (Vsu), 2018 Valdosta State University
Introduction To Weather And Climate (Vsu), Jason Allard, Weimin Feng
Geological Sciences and Geography Grants Collections
This Grants Collection for Introduction to Weather and Climate was created under a Round Seven ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.
Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.
Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:
- Linked Syllabus
- Initial Proposal
- Final Report
A Comparison Of The Diel Cycle Of Modeled And Measured Latent Heat Flux During The Warm Season In A Colorado Subalpine Forest, Sean P. Burns, Sean C. Swenson, William R. Wieder, David M. Lawrence, Gordon B. Bonan, John F. Knowles, Peter D. Blanken
University Libraries Open Access Fund Supported Publications
Precipitation changes the physiological characteristics of an ecosystem. Because land-surface models are often used to project changes in the hydrological cycle, modeling the effect of precipitation on the latent heat flux E is an important aspect of land-surface models. Here we contrast conditionally sampled diel composites of the eddy-covariance fluxes from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 4.5). With respect to measured E during the warm season: for the day following above-average precipitation, E was enhanced at midday by ≈40 W m−2 (relative to dry conditions), and nocturnal E increased ...
Spatio-Temporal Pattern Estimation Of Pm2.5 In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Modis Aod And Meteorological Data Using The Back Propagation Neural Network, Xialing Ni, Chunxiang Cao, Yuke Zhou, Xianghui Cui, Ramesh Singh
Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research
With the economic growth and increasing urbanization in the last three decades, the air quality over China has continuously degraded, which poses a great threat to human health. The concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly affects the mortality of people living in the polluted areas where air quality is poor. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the well organized urban regions in northern China, has suffered with poor air quality and atmospheric pollution due to recent growth of the industrial sector and vehicle emissions. In the present study, we used the back propagation neural network model approach to ...
Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, 2018 National Weather Service
Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, Sam Lashley
Purdue Road School
The National Weather Service is working with core partners to build a Weather Ready Nation for present and future generations by taking advanced action against the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation and flooding. One way in which this can be accomplished is by studying trends in historical weather data and applying what we learn to future mitigation efforts. The goal is to gain a better understanding of the magnitude and impacts that future extreme precipitation events may have on local infrastructure.
This presentation will review extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred across Indiana along ...
Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, 2018 University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng
Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in ...
Caves As Observatories For Atmospheric Thermal Tides: An Example From Ascunsă Cave, Romania, 2018 Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology
Caves As Observatories For Atmospheric Thermal Tides: An Example From Ascunsă Cave, Romania, Virgil Drăgușin, Laura Tîrlă, Nicoleta Cadicheanu, Vasile Ersek, Ionuț Mirea
International Journal of Speleology
As part of a microclimate study at Ascunsă Cave, Romania, we used Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data loggers to record cave air temperature variability. At one of the monitoring points we recognized the presence of semidiurnal cycles on the order of a few thousands of a degree Celsius that could be produced under the influence of the semidiurnal tidal components of the Sun (S2) or the Moon (M2). Using a Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data logger with an external probe we measured core rock temperature and showed that it does not influence the cave air temperature on such ...
Wrf Forecasts Of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven Mcss. Part Ii: Differences Between Strongly And Weakly Forced Low-Level Jet Environments, Brian J. Squitieri, William A. Gallus Jr.
William A. Gallus Jr.
The classic Great Plains southerly low-level jet (LLJ) is a primary factor in sustaining nocturnal convection. This study compares convection-allowing WRF forecasts of LLJ events associated with MCSs in strongly and weakly forced synoptic environments. The depth of the LLJs and magnitude, altitude, and times of the LLJ peak wind were evaluated in observations and WRF forecasts for 31 cases as well as for case subsets of strongly and weakly forced synoptic regimes. LLJs in strongly forced regimes were stronger, deeper, and peaked at higher altitudes and at earlier times compared to weakly forced cases. Mean error MCS-centered composites of ...
The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night Field Project, 2018 University of Wyoming
The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night Field Project, Bart Geerts, David Parsons, Tammy M. Weckwerth, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard D. Clark, Michael C. Coniglio, Belay B. Demoz, Richard A. Ferrare, William A. Gallus Jr., Kevin Haghi, John M. Hanesiak, Petra M. Klein, Kevin R. Knupp, Karen Kosiba, Greg M. Mcfarquhar, James A. Moore, Amin R. Nehrir, Matthew D. Parker, James O. Pinto, Robert M. Rauber, Russ S. Schumacher, David D. Turner, Qing Wang, Xuguang Wang, Zhien Wang, Joshua Wurman
William A. Gallus Jr.
The central Great Plains region in North America has a nocturnal maximum in warm-season precipitation. Much of this precipitation comes from organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This nocturnal maximum is counterintuitive in the sense that convective activity over the Great Plains is out of phase with the local generation of CAPE by solar heating of the surface. The lower troposphere in this nocturnal environment is typically characterized by a low-level jet (LLJ) just above a stable boundary layer (SBL), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values that peak above the SBL, resulting in convection that may be elevated, with source ...
Wrf Forecasts Of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven Mcss. Part I: Correlation Between Low-Level Jet Forecast Accuracy And Mcs Precipitation Forecast Skill, Brian J. Squitieri, William A. Gallus Jr.
William A. Gallus Jr.
The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) fosters an environment that supports nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) across the central United States during the summer months. The current study examines if LLJ forecast accuracy correlates with MCS precipitation forecast skill in 4-km WRF runs. LLJs were classified based on their synoptic background as either strongly forced, cyclonic flow (type C) or weakly forced, anticyclonic flow inertial oscillation driven (type A). Large-scale variables associated with the LLJ were examined. For all LLJs inclusive and the subset of type C LLJs alone, the forecast accuracy of the LLJ total wind direction significantly correlated ...
An Evaluation Of Qpf From The Wrf, Nam, And Gfs Models Using Multiple Verification Methods Over A Small Domain, 2018 Iowa State University
An Evaluation Of Qpf From The Wrf, Nam, And Gfs Models Using Multiple Verification Methods Over A Small Domain, Haifan Yan, William A. Gallus Jr.
William A. Gallus Jr.
The ARW model was run over a small domain centered on Iowa for 9 months with 4-km grid spacing to better understand the limits of predictability of short-term (12 h) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) that might be used in hydrology models. Radar data assimilation was performed to reduce spinup problems. Three grid-to-grid verification methods, as well as two spatial techniques, neighborhood and object based, were used to compare the QPFs from the high-resolution runs with coarser operational GFS and NAM QPFs to verify QPFs for various precipitation accumulation intervals and on two grid configurations with different resolutions. In general, NAM ...
Adapting The Sal Method To Evaluate Reflectivity Forecasts Of Summer Precipitation In The Central United States, 2018 Iowa State University
Adapting The Sal Method To Evaluate Reflectivity Forecasts Of Summer Precipitation In The Central United States, John R. Lawson, William A. Gallus Jr.
William A. Gallus Jr.
The Structure Amplitude Location (SAL)methodwas originally developed to evaluate forecast accumulated-precipitation fields through identification and comparison of objects in both the forecast and the observed fields. This study describes a small modification for use with instantaneous composite-reflectivity forecasts, where objects’ minimum size and reflectivity thresholds are prescribed. Both the original and modified SAL methods are used to evaluate daily 0000UTC 12-km North American Model (NAM) forecasts, against NCEP/EMC 4-km Stage IV accumulated-precipitation estimates, during the summer of 2015 for a central US domain. Results show substantial sensitivity to the reflectivity threshold. This is likely related to sampling more ...
An Initial Assessment Of Radar Data Assimilation On Warm Season Rainfall Forecasts For Use In Hydrologic Models, 2018 Iowa State University
An Initial Assessment Of Radar Data Assimilation On Warm Season Rainfall Forecasts For Use In Hydrologic Models, Ben A. Moser, William A. Gallus Jr., Ricardo Mantilla
William A. Gallus Jr.
The effect of introducing radar data assimilation into the WRF Model to improve high-resolution rainfall forecasts that are used for flash flood forecasting is analyzed. The authors selected 12 heavy rainfall events and performed two WRF 24-h simulations that produced quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for each, one using the standard configuration in forecast mode (QPF-Cold) and one using radar data assimilated at initialization (QPF-Hot). Simulation outputs are compared with NWS stage IV QPEs for storm placement, area over threshold coverage, and equitable threat scores. The two QPF products and stage IV data are used to force the distributed hydrological model ...
On Contrasting Ensemble Simulations Of Two Great Plains Bow Echoes, 2018 Iowa State University
On Contrasting Ensemble Simulations Of Two Great Plains Bow Echoes, John Lawson, William A. Gallus Jr.
William A. Gallus Jr.
Bow echo structures, a subset of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), are often poorly forecast within deterministic numerical weather prediction model simulations. Among other things, this may be due to the inherent low predictability associated with bow echoes, deficient initial conditions (ICs), and inadequate parameterization schemes. Four different ensemble configurations assessed the sensitivity of the MCSs’ simulated reflectivity and radius of curvature to the following: perturbations in initial and lateral boundary conditions using a global dataset, different microphysical schemes, a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, and a mix of the previous two. One case is poorly simulated no matter which ...
Ensemble Cloud-Resolving Modelling Of A Historic Back-Building Mesoscale Convective System Over Liguria: The San Fruttuoso Case Of 1915, Antonio Parodi, Luca Ferraris, William A. Gallus Jr., Maurizio Maugeri, Luca Molini, Franco Siccardi, Giorgio Boni
William A. Gallus Jr.
Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to ...