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Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker 2017 University of Missouri

Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker

Angela L. Strecker

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according ...


Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen 2017 University of Tennessee - Knoxville

Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at the University of Tennessee

Tornadoes present a significant threat to life and property. The National Weather Service watch and warning system warns the public of tornadoes. If these warnings are not heeded by the public, the potential fatalities and destruction of property cannot be minimized. Thus, to prevent further loss of life and property, it is necessary to understand how the public understands the watch and warning system, as well as how they react. This paper aims to understand the correlation between understanding of watches and warnings and the occurrence of tornadoes, as well as how understanding varies spatially. Survey data were collected from ...


Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder 2017 Iowa State University

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder

William J. Gutowski, Jr.

This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October–March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate ...


A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle 2017 Iowa State University

A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle

William A. Gallus Jr.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes showed little spread among the individual ensemble members for forecasting wind speed. A second configuration using three random perturbations of the Global Forecast System model produced more spread in the wind speed forecasts, but the ensemble mean possessed a higher mean absolute error (MAE). A third ensemble of different initialization times showed larger model spread, but ...


Storm Chasing Across The Plains: An Experience Portfolio, Isaac Bowers 2017 Western Kentucky University

Storm Chasing Across The Plains: An Experience Portfolio, Isaac Bowers

Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The opportunity to predict and document severe weather across the Plains is not available to many, but it is a vital experience for those who hope to truly excel in meteorology. The ability to travel alongside one of the professors that has guided you through the program, apply the knowledge gained from that professor and many others, and view nature’s breathtaking power in person is truly a capstone experience for any meteorology major. Luckily, the B.S. Meteorology Program at WKU offers a select group of students this opportunity annually. This portfolio report will consist of documentation I recorded ...


Agriculture, Jerry Hatfield, Eugene Takle, Richard Grotjahn, Patrick Holden, R. César Izaurralde, Terry Mader, Elizabeth Marshall, Diana Liverman 2017 United States Department of Agriculture

Agriculture, Jerry Hatfield, Eugene Takle, Richard Grotjahn, Patrick Holden, R. César Izaurralde, Terry Mader, Elizabeth Marshall, Diana Liverman

Eugene Takle

No abstract provided.


Climate Forecasts For Corn Producer Decision Making, Eugene S. Takle, Christopher J. Anderson, Jeffrey Andresen, James Angel, Roger Elmore, Benjamin M. Gramig, Patrick Guinan, Steven Hilberg, Doug Kluck, Raymond Massey, Dev Niyogi, Jeanne M. Schneider, Martha D. Shulski, Dennis Patrick Todey, Melissa Widhalm 2017 Iowa State University

Climate Forecasts For Corn Producer Decision Making, Eugene S. Takle, Christopher J. Anderson, Jeffrey Andresen, James Angel, Roger Elmore, Benjamin M. Gramig, Patrick Guinan, Steven Hilberg, Doug Kluck, Raymond Massey, Dev Niyogi, Jeanne M. Schneider, Martha D. Shulski, Dennis Patrick Todey, Melissa Widhalm

Eugene Takle

Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors provide a graphic depicting the climate-informed decision cycle, which ...


Us Food Security And Climate Change: Agricultural Futures, Eugene Takle, David Gustafson, Roger Beachy, Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Amanda Palazzo 2017 Iowa State University

Us Food Security And Climate Change: Agricultural Futures, Eugene Takle, David Gustafson, Roger Beachy, Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Amanda Palazzo

Eugene Takle

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2050. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. Our scenarios of the impact of climate change on food security through 2050 for internationally traded crops show that climate change does not threaten near-term US food security due to the availability of ...


Mapping The Decision Points And Climate Information Use Of Agricultural Producers Across The U.S. Corn Belt, Tonya Haigh, Eugene S. Takle, Jeffrey Andresen, Melissa Widhalm, J. Stuart Carlton, Jim Angel 2017 University of Nebraska - Lincoln

Mapping The Decision Points And Climate Information Use Of Agricultural Producers Across The U.S. Corn Belt, Tonya Haigh, Eugene S. Takle, Jeffrey Andresen, Melissa Widhalm, J. Stuart Carlton, Jim Angel

Eugene Takle

The usefulness of climate information for agricultural risk management hinges on its availability and relevance to the producer when climate-sensitive decisions are being made. Climate information providers are challenged with the task of balancing forecast availability and lead time with acceptable forecast skill, which requires an improved understanding of the timing of agricultural decision making. Achieving a useful balance may also require an expansion of inquiry to include use of non-forecast climate information (i.e. historical climate information) in agricultural decision making. Decision calendars have proven valuable for identifying opportunities for using different types of climate information. The extent to ...


Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder 2017 Iowa State University

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder

Eugene Takle

This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October–March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate ...


Crop Models Capture The Impacts Of Climate Variability On Corn Yield, Dev Niyogi, Xing Liu, Jeff Andresen, Atul K. Jain, Olivia Kellner, Eugene Takle, Otto C. Doering 2017 Purdue University

Crop Models Capture The Impacts Of Climate Variability On Corn Yield, Dev Niyogi, Xing Liu, Jeff Andresen, Atul K. Jain, Olivia Kellner, Eugene Takle, Otto C. Doering

Eugene Takle

We investigate the ability of three different crop models of varying complexity for capturing El Niño–Southern Oscillation-based climate variability impacts on the U.S. Corn Belt (1981–2010). Results indicate that crop models, irrespective of their complexity, are able to capture the impacts of climate variability on yield. Multiple-model ensemble analysis provides best results. There was no significant difference between using on-site and gridded meteorological data sets to drive the models. These results highlight the ability of using simpler crop models and gridded regional data sets for crop-climate assessments.


A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle 2017 Iowa State University

A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle

Eugene Takle

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes showed little spread among the individual ensemble members for forecasting wind speed. A second configuration using three random perturbations of the Global Forecast System model produced more spread in the wind speed forecasts, but the ensemble mean possessed a higher mean absolute error (MAE). A third ensemble of different initialization times showed larger model spread, but ...


Spatial Variabilities And Their Relationships Of The Trends Of Temperature, Water Vapor, And Precipitation In The North American Regional Reanalysis, Er Lu, Eugene S. Takle 2017 Iowa State University

Spatial Variabilities And Their Relationships Of The Trends Of Temperature, Water Vapor, And Precipitation In The North American Regional Reanalysis, Er Lu, Eugene S. Takle

Eugene Takle

[1] Spatial variabilities and their relationships of the trends of temperature, water vapor, and precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis are examined for each season from March 1979 to February 2007. Results show that warming dominates the domain in the troposphere from the surface to 300 hPa. Water vapor increases at lower levels but does not change much at mid-upper levels. Because of the large increase of water vapor holding capacity of the air at all levels due to the warming, relative humidity has a decreasing trend at all levels. The decrease is small at the surface and largest ...


Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets 2017 Louisiana State University

Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Louisiana has lost approximately 1,880 square miles of land over the past eighty years. Projections suggest that in a future without action, the next fifty years could result in the loss of 1,750 additional square miles of land area. As land loss continues, a large portion of the natural and man-made capital stocks of coastal Louisiana will be at greater risk of damage, either from land loss or from the associated increase in storm damage. We estimate the replacement cost of capital stock directly at risk from land loss ranges from approximately $2.1 billion to $3.5 ...


A Method For Hemispherical Ground Based Remote Sensing Of Urban Surface Temperatures, Michael A. Allen 2017 The University of Western Ontario

A Method For Hemispherical Ground Based Remote Sensing Of Urban Surface Temperatures, Michael A. Allen

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis presents a method for deriving time-continuous urban surface temperature and heat island assessments from hemispherical ground-based measurements of upwelling thermal radiation. The method, developed to overcome geometric and temporal biases inherent in traditional thermal remote sensing of urban surface climates, uses a sensor view model in conjunction with a radiative transfer code to derive atmospherically corrected, hemispherical radiometric urban surface temperatures. These are used to derive two long-term climatologies of surface urban heat island (sUHI) magnitudes for Basel, Switzerland and Vancouver, Canada. sUHI development shows significant variation based on time-of-day, season, and ambient and synoptic conditions. Results also ...


The Arctic: Science, Law, And Policy, Charles H. Norchi, Paul A. Mayewski 2017 University of Maine School of Law

The Arctic: Science, Law, And Policy, Charles H. Norchi, Paul A. Mayewski

Ocean and Coastal Law Journal

In 1959, Sir Charles Snow (C.P. Snow) delivered a lecture at Cambridge University entitled The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution in which he identified a duality of cultures. There were the scientists and the humanists--two dimly acquanited cultures that rarely communicated, and when they did it was usually at cross-purposes. One culture was contentedly unknowing and skeptical of science, and the other was marginal to the great social questions of the time. For C.P. Snow, the polarization and lack of communication between the two groups could be fatal to the Western World. The 21st century has also ...


Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker 2017 University of Missouri

Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according ...


Observations And Regional Climate Model Simulations Of Heavy Precipitation Events And Seasonal Anomalies: A Comparison, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Karen Andsager, Xin-Zhong Liang, Raymond W. Arritt, Eugene S. Takle, William J. Gutowski Jr., Zaitao Pan 2017 Illinois State Water Survey

Observations And Regional Climate Model Simulations Of Heavy Precipitation Events And Seasonal Anomalies: A Comparison, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Karen Andsager, Xin-Zhong Liang, Raymond W. Arritt, Eugene S. Takle, William J. Gutowski Jr., Zaitao Pan

Eugene Takle

A regional climate model simulation of the period of 1979–88 over the contiguous United States, driven by lateral boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, was analyzed to assess the ability of the model to simulate heavy precipitation events and seasonal precipitation anomalies. Heavy events were defined by precipitation totals that exceed the threshold value for a specified return period and duration. The model magnitudes of the thresholds for 1-day heavy precipitation events were in good agreement with observed thresholds for much of the central United States. Model thresholds were greater ...


Impacts Of Climate Change On Streamflow In The Upper Mississippi River Basin: A Regional Climate Model Perspective, Manoj K. Jha, Zaitao Pan, Eugene S. Takle, Roy R. Gu 2017 Iowa State University

Impacts Of Climate Change On Streamflow In The Upper Mississippi River Basin: A Regional Climate Model Perspective, Manoj K. Jha, Zaitao Pan, Eugene S. Takle, Roy R. Gu

Eugene Takle

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin is evaluated by use of a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The RCM we used resolves, at least partially, some fine-scale dynamical processes that are important contributors to precipitation in this region and that are not well simulated by global models. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against measured streamflow data using observed weather data and inputs from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) geographic information systems/database ...


The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview Of Phase I Results, Linda O. Mearns, Ray Arritt, Sébastien Biner, Melissa S. Bukovsky, Seth McGinnis, Stephan Sain, Daniel Caya, James Correia, David Flory, William Gutowski, Eugene S. Takle, Richard Jones, Ruby Leung, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Larry McDaniel, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder 2017 National Center for Atmospheric Research

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview Of Phase I Results, Linda O. Mearns, Ray Arritt, Sébastien Biner, Melissa S. Bukovsky, Seth Mcginnis, Stephan Sain, Daniel Caya, James Correia, David Flory, William Gutowski, Eugene S. Takle, Richard Jones, Ruby Leung, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Larry Mcdaniel, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder

Eugene Takle

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international effort designed to investigate the uncertainties in regional-scale projections of future climate and produce highresolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous United States, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (phase I) wherein the participating RCMs, with a grid spacing of 50 km, are nested within 25 years of National Centers for Environmental ...


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