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Consistency Of Projected Drought Over The Sahel With Changes In The Monsoon Circulation And Extremes In A Regional Climate Model Projections, M. B. Sylla, A. T. Gaye, G. S. Jenkins, Jeremy S. Pal, F. Giorgi 2017 Cheikh Anta Diop University

Consistency Of Projected Drought Over The Sahel With Changes In The Monsoon Circulation And Extremes In A Regional Climate Model Projections, M. B. Sylla, A. T. Gaye, G. S. Jenkins, Jeremy S. Pal, F. Giorgi

Jeremy Pal

As a step toward an increased understanding of climate change over West Africa, in this paper we analyze the relationship between rainfall changes and monsoon dynamics in high-resolution regional climate model experiments performed using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). Multidecadal simulations are carried out for present-day and future climate conditions under increased greenhouse gas forcing driven by the global climate model European Center/Hamburg 5 (ECHAM5). Compared to the present day, the future scenario simulation produces drier conditions over the Sahel and wetter conditions over orographic areas. The Sahel drying is accompanied by a weaker monsoon flow, a southward migration ...


Regional Climate Modeling For The Developing World: The Ictp Regcm3 And Regcnet, Jeremy S. Pal, Filippo Giorgi, Xunqiang Bi, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Solmon, Xuejie Gao, Sara A. Rauscher, Raquel Francisco, Ashraf Zakey, Jonathan Winter, Moetasim Ashfaq, Faisal S. Syed, Jason L. Bell, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Jagadish Karmacharya, Abourahamane Konaré, Daniel Martinez, Rosmeri P. Da Rocha, Lisa C. Sloan, Allison L. Steiner 2017 Loyola Marymount University

Regional Climate Modeling For The Developing World: The Ictp Regcm3 And Regcnet, Jeremy S. Pal, Filippo Giorgi, Xunqiang Bi, Nellie Elguindi, Fabien Solmon, Xuejie Gao, Sara A. Rauscher, Raquel Francisco, Ashraf Zakey, Jonathan Winter, Moetasim Ashfaq, Faisal S. Syed, Jason L. Bell, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Jagadish Karmacharya, Abourahamane Konaré, Daniel Martinez, Rosmeri P. Da Rocha, Lisa C. Sloan, Allison L. Steiner

Jeremy Pal

Regional climate models are important research tools available to scientists around the world, including in economically developing nations (EDNs). The Earth Systems Physics (ESP) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) maintains and distributes a state-of-the-science regional climate model called the ICTP Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3), which is currently being used by a large research community for a diverse range of climate-related studies. The RegCM3 is the central, but not only, tool of the ICTP-maintained Regional Climate Research Network (RegCNET) aimed at creating south–south and north–south scientific interactions on the topic of ...


Using P-Band Signals Of Opportunity Radio Waves For Root Zone Soil Moisture Remote Sensing, Phillip H. Lipinski, Benjamin R. Nold, James L. Garrison 2017 Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology

Using P-Band Signals Of Opportunity Radio Waves For Root Zone Soil Moisture Remote Sensing, Phillip H. Lipinski, Benjamin R. Nold, James L. Garrison

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Retrieval of Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) is important for understanding the carbon cycle for use in climate change research as well as meteorology, hydrology, and precision agriculture studies. A current method of remote sensing, GNSS-R uses GPS signals to measure soil moisture content and vegetation biomass, but it is limited to 3-5 cm of soil penetration depth. Signals of Opportunity (SoOp) has emerged as an extension of GNSS-R remote sensing using communication signals. P-band communication signals (370 MHz) will be studied as an improved method of remote sensing of RZSM. P-band offers numerous advantages over GNSS-R, including stronger signal ...


Large Marine Protected Areas Represent Biodiversity Now And Under Climate Change, T. E. Davies, S. M. Maxwell, K. Kaschner, C. Garilao, N. C. Ban 2017 Old Dominion University

Large Marine Protected Areas Represent Biodiversity Now And Under Climate Change, T. E. Davies, S. M. Maxwell, K. Kaschner, C. Garilao, N. C. Ban

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Large marine protected areas (>30,000 km2) have a high profile in marine conservation, yet their contribution to conservation is contested. Assessing the overlap of large marine protected areas with 14,172 species, we found large marine protected areas cover 4.4% of the ocean and at least some portion of the range of 83.3% of the species assessed. Of all species within large marine protected areas, 26.9% had at least 10% of their range represented, and this was projected to increase to 40.1% in 2100. Cumulative impacts were significantly higher within large marine protected areas ...


Observing The Quantumbehavior Of Light In An Undergraduate Laboratory, M. S. Neel, J. J. Thorn, V. W. Donato, G. S. Bergreen, Robert E. Davies, M. Beck 2017 Utah State University

Observing The Quantumbehavior Of Light In An Undergraduate Laboratory, M. S. Neel, J. J. Thorn, V. W. Donato, G. S. Bergreen, Robert E. Davies, M. Beck

Robert Davies

While the classical, wavelike behavior of light (interference and diffraction) has been easily observed in undergraduate laboratories for many years, explicit observation of the quantum nature of light (i.e., photons) is much more difficult. For example, while well-known phenomena such as the photoelectric effect and Compton scattering strongly suggest the existence of photons, they are not definitive proof of their existence. Here we present an experiment, suitable for an undergraduate laboratory, that unequivocally demonstrates the quantum nature of light. Spontaneously downconverted light is incident on a beamsplitter and the outputs are monitored with single-photon counting detectors. We observe a ...


Identification Of Extreme Precipitation Threat Across Midlatitude Regions Based On Short-Wave Circulations, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert E. Davies, Robert R. Gillies 2017 Utah State University

Identification Of Extreme Precipitation Threat Across Midlatitude Regions Based On Short-Wave Circulations, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert E. Davies, Robert R. Gillies

Robert Davies

The most severe thunderstorms, producing extreme precipitation, occur over subtropical and midlatitude regions. Atmospheric conditions conducive to organized, intense thunderstorms commonly involve the coupling of a low-level jet (LLJ) with a synoptic short wave. The midlatitude synoptic activity is frequently modulated by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), in which meridional gradients of the jet stream act as a guide for short Rossby waves. Previous research has linked extreme precipitation events with either the CGT or the LLJ but has not linked the two circulation features together. In this study, a circulation-based index was developed by combining (a) the degree of the ...


Connecting Subseasonal Movements Of The Winter Mean Ridge In Western North America To Inversion Climatology In Cache Valley, Utah, Shi-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Randy Martin, Robert E. Davies, Marty R. Booth 2017 Utah State University

Connecting Subseasonal Movements Of The Winter Mean Ridge In Western North America To Inversion Climatology In Cache Valley, Utah, Shi-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Randy Martin, Robert E. Davies, Marty R. Booth

Robert Davies

A 10-yr record of PM2.5 (particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm), collected in Cache Valley near downtown Logan, Utah, reveals a strong peak in the PM2.5 concentration climatology that is tightly localized in mid-January. The cause of this subseasonal variation in the PM2.5 climatology is investigated through dynamical downscaling and large-scale diagnostics. Climatological analysis of the U.S. winter mean ridge reveals a mid-January subseasonal shift in the zonal direction, likely in response to variations in the Rossby wave source over the central North Pacific Ocean. This displacement of the winter mean ridge, in turn ...


Pakistan’S Two-Stage Monsoon And Links With The Recent Climate Change, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert Davies, Wan Ru Huang, Robert R. Gillies 2017 Utah State University

Pakistan’S Two-Stage Monsoon And Links With The Recent Climate Change, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Robert Davies, Wan Ru Huang, Robert R. Gillies

Robert Davies

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large‐scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a premonsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July premonsoon trough ...


Measuring Inorganic Carbon Fluxes From Carbonate Mineral Weathering From Large River Basins: The Ohio River Basin, Autumn B. Turner 2017 Western Kentucky University

Measuring Inorganic Carbon Fluxes From Carbonate Mineral Weathering From Large River Basins: The Ohio River Basin, Autumn B. Turner

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have motivated efforts to better quantify reservoirs and fluxes of Earth’s carbon. Of these fluxes from the atmosphere, one that has received relatively little attention is the atmospheric carbon sink associated with carbonate mineral dissolution. Osterhoudt (2014) and Salley (2016) explored new normalization techniques to improve and standardize a process for measuring this flux over large river basins. The present research extends this work to the 490,600 km2 Ohio River drainage basin and 11 subbasins. The study estimated the DIC flux leaving these basins between October 1, 2013, and September 30, 2014, based on ...


Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby 2017 University of Nebraska - Lincoln

Nuclear Weapons In A Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, And Perception, Adam Liska, Tyler R. White, Eric Holley, Robert J. Oglesby

Adam Liska Papers

Many people tend to think that the outcome of any nuclear weapons use today will result in an escalatory situation with apocalyptic outcomes for the countries involved. Yet many factors are increasing the probability of the limited use of nuclear weapons (e.g., 1 to 20 warheads) in a range of conflict scenarios. Previous atmospheric model simulations of regional nuclear conflicts employing many relatively small bombs have been estimated to cause a global “nuclear autumn,” with great reductions in agricultural productivity, stratospheric ozone loss, and spread of hazardous radioactive fallout. The totality of these effects would result in widespread ...


Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker 2017 University of Missouri

Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker

Angela L. Strecker

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according ...


Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen 2017 University of Tennessee - Knoxville

Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at the University of Tennessee

Tornadoes present a significant threat to life and property. The National Weather Service watch and warning system warns the public of tornadoes. If these warnings are not heeded by the public, the potential fatalities and destruction of property cannot be minimized. Thus, to prevent further loss of life and property, it is necessary to understand how the public understands the watch and warning system, as well as how they react. This paper aims to understand the correlation between understanding of watches and warnings and the occurrence of tornadoes, as well as how understanding varies spatially. Survey data were collected from ...


Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder 2017 Iowa State University

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated By Narccap Rcms, William Gutowski, Raymond W. Arritt, Sho Kawazoe, David M. Flory, Eugene S. Takle, Sébastien Biner, Daniel Caya, Richard G. Jones, René Laprise, L. Ruby Leung, Linda O. Mearns, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Ana M. B. Nunes, Yun Qian, John O. Roads, Lisa C. Sloan, Mark A. Snyder

William J. Gutowski, Jr.

This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October–March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate ...


A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle 2017 Iowa State University

A Wrf Ensemble For Improved Wind Speed Forecasts At Turbine Height, Adam J. Deppe, William A. Gallus Jr., Eugene S. Takle

William A. Gallus Jr.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing was used to explore improvements in wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (80 m). An ensemble consisting of WRF model simulations with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes showed little spread among the individual ensemble members for forecasting wind speed. A second configuration using three random perturbations of the Global Forecast System model produced more spread in the wind speed forecasts, but the ensemble mean possessed a higher mean absolute error (MAE). A third ensemble of different initialization times showed larger model spread, but ...


Storm Chasing Across The Plains: An Experience Portfolio, Isaac Bowers 2017 Western Kentucky University

Storm Chasing Across The Plains: An Experience Portfolio, Isaac Bowers

Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The opportunity to predict and document severe weather across the Plains is not available to many, but it is a vital experience for those who hope to truly excel in meteorology. The ability to travel alongside one of the professors that has guided you through the program, apply the knowledge gained from that professor and many others, and view nature’s breathtaking power in person is truly a capstone experience for any meteorology major. Luckily, the B.S. Meteorology Program at WKU offers a select group of students this opportunity annually. This portfolio report will consist of documentation I recorded ...


Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets 2017 Louisiana State University

Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Louisiana has lost approximately 1,880 square miles of land over the past eighty years. Projections suggest that in a future without action, the next fifty years could result in the loss of 1,750 additional square miles of land area. As land loss continues, a large portion of the natural and man-made capital stocks of coastal Louisiana will be at greater risk of damage, either from land loss or from the associated increase in storm damage. We estimate the replacement cost of capital stock directly at risk from land loss ranges from approximately $2.1 billion to $3.5 ...


A Method For Hemispherical Ground Based Remote Sensing Of Urban Surface Temperatures, Michael A. Allen 2017 The University of Western Ontario

A Method For Hemispherical Ground Based Remote Sensing Of Urban Surface Temperatures, Michael A. Allen

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

This thesis presents a method for deriving time-continuous urban surface temperature and heat island assessments from hemispherical ground-based measurements of upwelling thermal radiation. The method, developed to overcome geometric and temporal biases inherent in traditional thermal remote sensing of urban surface climates, uses a sensor view model in conjunction with a radiative transfer code to derive atmospherically corrected, hemispherical radiometric urban surface temperatures. These are used to derive two long-term climatologies of surface urban heat island (sUHI) magnitudes for Basel, Switzerland and Vancouver, Canada. sUHI development shows significant variation based on time-of-day, season, and ambient and synoptic conditions. Results also ...


Long-Term Records Of Climate-Induced Changes In The Zooplankton Of West-Greenland Lakes, Helen Schlimm 2017 Dickinson College

Long-Term Records Of Climate-Induced Changes In The Zooplankton Of West-Greenland Lakes, Helen Schlimm

Student Honors Theses By Year

Recent research documents climate-induced changes in the algal communities of West Greenland lakes; however, less is known about the response of zooplankton to climate change effects in this region. Zooplankton are predominantly the top predator in these lakes, and thus may be changing due to direct climate effects on physical lake habitat and chemistry or indirect effects on their food source. Cladoceran remains from two lake sediment cores were collected in the Kangerlussuaq region of southwest Greenland: SS1341, located midway between the Greenland ice sheet and the coast, and SS901, close in proximity to the ice sheet. Modern zooplankton data ...


The Arctic: Science, Law, And Policy, Charles H. Norchi, Paul A. Mayewski 2017 University of Maine School of Law

The Arctic: Science, Law, And Policy, Charles H. Norchi, Paul A. Mayewski

Ocean and Coastal Law Journal

In 1959, Sir Charles Snow (C.P. Snow) delivered a lecture at Cambridge University entitled The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution in which he identified a duality of cultures. There were the scientists and the humanists--two dimly acquanited cultures that rarely communicated, and when they did it was usually at cross-purposes. One culture was contentedly unknowing and skeptical of science, and the other was marginal to the great social questions of the time. For C.P. Snow, the polarization and lack of communication between the two groups could be fatal to the Western World. The 21st century has also ...


Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker 2017 University of Missouri

Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according ...


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