Macroeconomics Commons^™

Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Financial markets in a country are parts of modern economic systems and have definite impacts of its economic performance. However, in an underdeveloped economic structure there can be other targets o hidden activities for them. Such assumptions are provoked under totalitarian economic systems that impose cartel monopolies in a autocratic compradorism that own most of the companies and their stocks. The institutional structure of the prevailing economic system avails negative cost/benefits dealings to continue unaffected as the main profits have to come from other resources, e.g., money laundry. The private sector has to be monopolized in order to sustain the …

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …

Investments And Risk Management Under The New Pension Scheme., Luka A. Dalang

Bullion

Pension today, has become a topical issue. one that has engaged the commitment of government, attention of employers and workers not only in Nigeria but also in many developing and emerging economies of Africa, Asia and Latin America This paper discuss the trend of investments and pension schemes with its risks and challenges in Nigeria. The study however confirmed the non applicability of the financial reform theory hypothesized by McKinnon and Shaw in Nigeria.' . The National pension Commission guidelines as mentioned earlier, are designed to ensure transparency, integrity and objectivity in the vestment process. and to ensure that the …

Financial Sector Outcomes In Nigeria: A Quantitative Evaluation., Abeng M. Okoi

Bullion

Prior to the adoption of the economic reforms measures of the 1980's, most African economies were predominantly characterised by extensive public ownership, management and control of productive and social infrastructures and institutions. This paper discuss the trend of investments and pension schemes with its risks and challenges in Nigeria. The study however confirmed the non applicability of the financial reform theory hypothesized by McKinnon and Shaw in Nigeria 'This Paper quantitatively examine the outcomes of financial sector reforms in Nigeria with a view to validating the applicability of the Mckinnon Shaw hypothesis of financial liberalization. The impact of reforms on …

Contributory Pension Scheme: The Case Of Brazil., Mbatomon R. Ako

Bullion

The reform of the pension industry in Nigeria was necessitated by many problems confronting both the public and private sectors pension schemes. The public sector operated largely the Defined Benefit - Pay As You Go (PAYG) scheme, which depended on budgetary provisions from various tiers of governments for funding. This paper discuss the conceptual issues of Contributory pension scheme in Brazil, the structure of the pension system and the features of the pension scheme as well as some other pension reforms in Brazil. The study concluded that. the pension systems were introduced into the country by the colonial administrators. The …

Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations, although such shocks contributed to inflation.

Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by the technology leaders through …

Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Although inflationary pressures persisted in the economy for the second year in a row, the headline inflation fell to 7.6 percent year-on-year in June 2006 that was 1 percentage point less than inflation in corresponding month last year.1 The inflation containment was more visible in the last six months of FY06 as compared to first six months (Jul 05 to Dec 05): the average CPI inflation during the first half of the year was 8.4 percent which declined to 7.4 percent in the second half primarily due to fall in food inflation. Inflation measured by sensitive price indicator also …

Monetary Policy In Iran: The Challenge Of Reducing Inflation, Leo Bonato, Abdelali Jbili

Leo Bonato

The conduct of monetary policy in an oil economy with a managed floating exchange rate regime can be challenging in an environment of fiscal dominance and incomplete transition to a market economy. The Five-Year Development Plans provide a natural benchmark against which to assess monetary policy performance in Iran. Price stability has proved elusive, with liquidity growth targets constantly exceeded by a large margin. The paper examines the reasons behind these results and, based on the lessons that can be drawn from the literature and the international experience, makes some proposals on how to improve on this record. Although fiscal …

Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Assessment Of Capital Returns And Economics Of Investment In Khartoum Stock Exchange Market, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Financial markets in a country are parts of modern economic systems and have definite impacts of its economic performance. However, in an underdeveloped economic structure there can be other targets o hidden activities for them. Such assumptions are provoked under totalitarian economic systems that impose cartel monopolies in a autocratic compradorism that own most of the companies and their stocks. The institutional structure of the prevailing economic system avails negative cost/benefits dealings to continue unaffected as the main profits have to come from other resources, e.g., money laundry. The private sector has to be monopolized in order to sustain the …

Nigeria's External Trade And The New Perspectives For Its Enhancement, G. K. Sanni

Bullion

Trade has been universally acknowledged as indispensable tool to rapid economic growth and development. This is because increased participation in trade is associated with higher inflows of foreign investment and new technologies which can be adopted to transform the economy through appropriate policy. This paper analyses Nigeria's foreign trade with a view to examining the composition and direction as well as impediments to the growth of trade, and proffer suggestions for enhancing Nigeria's foreign trade. The paper is divided into five sections. Following the introduction are the theoretical issues. This is followed by the analysis in section three of the …

Globalization & Nationalism: A Recipe For Terror, Cari Bourette, Daniel Reader

Cari Bourette

Nationalism appears to be part of the human condition; it may well be related to the human tendency toward tribalism. Whatever the case, nationalism appears to be a permanent feature on the global landscape. Globalization, while not a new phenomenon by any means, seems to be having a tremendous dilutory effect on the sovereignty of states; it now appears to be carrying the assault to the cultural frontiers of nationalism. Unlike the Westphalian constructs, however, nations will not so easily succumb. There is a greater inherent resistance to change in nations; the only historically effective method has been outright eradication …

Central Asia's Transition After Fifteen Years: Growth And Policy Choices, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Vignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper presents a coherent and systematic analysis of the collapse and subsequent revival of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) since 1990. The focus is on the pattern of growth and structural change during the cycle of decline and subsequent revival in the CARs which have been inadequately analyzed in the literature on transition. The paper relates economic performance to initial conditions, country characteristics and policies. Within this framework, it proposes a simple typology of policies (including a new Type III set of policies on regional cooperation and industrial competitiveness) and relates them to the cycle of decline and revival …

Central Asia: Mapping Future Prospects, Malcolm Dowling, Ganeshan Wignaraja

Research Collection School Of Economics

Central Asia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia: Mapping Future …

Reform In Lieu Of Change: Tastes Great, Less Filling, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

In this response to Light, Koppell argues that the increasing frequency of reform may reflect Congress's inability to make significant changes to the substance of entrenched government programs. Moreover, he observes that the more profound evolution in government has been the movement toward the market-based provision of services, which has created a demand for new competencies in the public sector.

The Macroeconomy And Long-Term Interest Rates: An Examination Of Recent Treasury Yields, Hans W. Hardisty

Gettysburg Economic Review

From 2001 to 2006, U.S. long-term interest rates have remained steady while the federal funds rate has both declined and increased, as Figure 1 shows. Historically, long term interest rates tend to respond to changes in short term rates, but recently this does not appear to be the case. Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, recently dubbed this occurrence a “conundrum,” because no one can provide a distinct explanation concerning this phenomenon. There are several noteworthy incentives for why long-term yields should have increased from 2004 to 2006, but they have remained constant during this time period. According …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 1, Spring 2006

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Review Essay On The Politically Incorrect Guide To American History By Thomas E. Woods, Jr., Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

No abstract provided.

Dynamics Of Energy Consumption, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Dynamics of Energy Consumption Pakistan has been facing severe imbalances in energy demand and supply for the last couple of decades. During early 1980s domestic supply of energy was fulfilling almost 86 percent of total domestic energy demand; a gap of 14 percent was being filled by imports. However, the demand – supply gap started increasing since then and reached to almost 47 percent by the year 2000 (see Figure S2.1).

Fdi And Growth: What Causes What?, Abdur Chowdhury, George Mavrotas

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda-Yamamoto test for causality, to time-series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and Thailand, …

Macro Determinants Of Total Factor Productivity In Pakistan, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

How Society Makes Itself: The Evolution Of Political And Economic Institutions, Howard J. Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

This radical account of the evolution of political, social, and economic institutions weaves together strands of anthropology, sociology, political science, history, and economics. In a highly readable text, Howard Sherman explains the interconnections of ideas and economic forces, and traces the evolution of social and economic institutions from primitive times to the present. Sherman focuses on the myth of "inevitable progress" in technology, and argues that it progresses only when social and economic institutions and dominant ideas encourage it to improve. He shows that throughout history technology, as a part of the economic forces, ebbs and flows to create or …

Money And Real Fluctuations In The Chilean Economy, Andres Acuña, Carlos Oyarzun

Andrés A. Acuña

China's Changing Economic Structures And Its Implications For Regional Patterns Of Trade Production And Integration, Kim Song Tan, Hoe Ee Khor

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is tremendous momentum for economic and financial integration in East Asia today. Partly inspired by the formation of the European Union and partly as a response to the 1997/98 Asia financial crisis, many East Asian countries are showing greater commitment to regional economic cooperation. A number of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have either been concluded or are being negotiated.1 At a less formal level, the ASEAN+3 grouping has brought the whole region together in regular consultations over trade, investment, as well as monetary and exchange rate policy matters.

The View From The West Bank, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

Today's failure to resolve the Israeli Palestinian conflict/relationship is put in historical context.

Bond Yield Compression In The Countries Converging To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Kirsten Lommatzsch

WCBT Faculty Publications

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new ...Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar …

The Effects Of Local And Global Risk Factors On Industry Stock Returns: Across Country Analysis, Mahdy Farag Elhossiny

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation studies the local and global sources of risk and industries stock returns across national equity markets. We examine several local and global economic risk factors and ask whether and to what extent these risk factors can explain the variation in the industries' stock returns of five countries, namely Canada, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Specifically, the main objective of this dissertation is to find answers for three main questions: First, whether and to what extent do returns on local industries respond to changes in local macroeconomic risk factors? Second, whether and to what extent do returns …

Post-Consolidation Challenges., Biodun Adedipe

Bullion

This paper tend to look at the huge complexity of a consolidation programme of the kind embarked upon by the CBN demands caution, constant reappraisal of strategies and actions, and full attention to the identified and emerging challenges. The paper is structured into three parts, dealing with the benefits of a properly conceived and effectively implemented consolidation programme, which has several components. beyond the benefits, the challenges that the banking industry stakeholders (especially the Central Bank of Nigeria) will face when the "dust settles". The final part offers some advice on what the CBN and other stakeholders should do in …

Export-Led Growth In Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis, Hiranya K. Nath, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This article examines time series evidence to investigate the link between exports and economic growth in Bangladesh. Using quarterly data for a period from 1976 to 2003 the article finds that industrial production and exports are cointegrated. The results of an error correction model (ECM) suggest that there is a long-run unidirectional causality from exports to growth in Bangladesh.