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Articles 1 - 30 of 30
Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
The Dynamics Of Monthly Changes In Us Swap Yields: A Keynesian Perspective, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
The Dynamics Of Monthly Changes In Us Swap Yields: A Keynesian Perspective, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
WCBT Working Papers
John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper investigates whether Keynes's conjecture also holds for the monthly changes in US long-term swap yields by econometrically modeling its dynamics using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The econometric modeling reveals that there is statistically significant effect on the monthly changes in the Treasury bill rate on the monthly changes in swap yields of different maturity …
Lessons Learned: Scott G. Alvarez, Esq., Part 2, Steven Kelly
Lessons Learned: Scott G. Alvarez, Esq., Part 2, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
Scott G. Alvarez was general counsel of the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He met with the Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS) to discuss a litany of legal aspects related to the Fed’s interventions under its emergency liquidity provision authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. We summarize some highlights from our interview with Mr. Alvarez. The transcript of this interview, conducted in April 2022, and one from an earlier Lessons Learned interview, in December 2018
United States: Main Street Lending Program, Steven Kelly
United States: Main Street Lending Program, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic caused slowdowns and disruptions to economic activity, businesses faced disruptions to their revenues and experienced increased demand for credit. Yet, as the pandemic worsened the economic outlook, banks tightened credit. Starting on March 17, the Federal Reserve rolled out several emergency programs aimed at capital markets. Most of these programs tended to benefit relatively large companies. On March 23, the Fed said it would introduce a program targeting small and mid-sized companies. On April 9, 2020, the Federal Reserve announced its first design iteration of the novel Main Street Lending Program (MSLP). The …
United States: Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly
United States: Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Congress passed and funded the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to help small businesses facing business disruptions keep workers on their payrolls and meet other expenses. The PPP, signed into law on March 27, 2020, provided a mechanism for authorized lenders to extend concessionary, forgivable loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA). Lenders ultimately extended approximately $800 billion in PPP loans. The SBA distributed the funds when the loan either defaulted or met the law's terms for SBA forgiveness. To buttress lenders' ability to fund PPP loans, the Federal Reserve …
United States: Municipal Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly
United States: Municipal Liquidity Facility, Steven Kelly
Journal of Financial Crises
In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe financial stress for state and local municipalities. Municipalities' public health responses led to material increases in expenditures. At the same time, many municipalities faced revenue delays and declines due to extended tax deadlines and disruptions in taxable economic activity. Institutional investors also put heavy selling pressure on municipal bonds. In response to stresses in the municipal financing market, the Federal Reserve invoked its Section 13(3) emergency lending authority and created the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF). The Fed created the facility to backstop municipal entities' access to capital markets to help them manage …
United States: Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility And Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, Natalie Leonard
United States: Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility And Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, Natalie Leonard
Journal of Financial Crises
The COVID-19 pandemic reached a critical stage in early 2020 causing severe distress and disruption in financial markets, and the United States government declared a federal state of emergency in the second week of March. As institutional investors including mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies withdrew from corporate bond markets and funding options for large US businesses dried up, the Federal Reserve became concerned that solvent businesses might have difficulty financing their operations. On March 23, the Federal Reserve Board invoked Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, creating two novel emergency lending facilities to support the corporate bond …
United States: Term Auction Facility, Corey N. Runkel, Anshu Chen
United States: Term Auction Facility, Corey N. Runkel, Anshu Chen
Journal of Financial Crises
Following the announcement on August 9, 2007, by BNP Paribas that it was suspending redemptions for three of its open-end investment funds that had invested heavily in mortgage-backed securities, liquidity in the American interbank and short-term funding markets tightened considerably. On August 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the cost of borrowing from the discount window. However, usage remained low, due largely to the perception that such borrowing implied weak financials. In December, the Fed launched the Term Auction Facility (TAF), which used single-rate auctions to mitigate this stigma. The TAF offered discount-window credit of 28 days, and later, 84 days. …
The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll
The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …
Stress Tests And Policy, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Stress Tests And Policy, Greg Feldberg, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Ten years after the Federal Reserve’s crisis-era bank stress test, it is time to recalibrate the stress tests for “peacetime.” Outside of a crisis, supervisors should tailor stress tests to focus on their comparative advantages by taking a macroprudential focus, with severe scenarios that enable them to learn about emerging risks in both traditional and shadow banking sectors. In peacetime, also, supervisors should emphasize risk- management practices and be wary of forcing rapid changes in capital levels for individual banks, while linking stress-test results with countercyclical capital buffers across the system.
Term Securities Lending Facility (Tslf) (U.S. Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos
Term Securities Lending Facility (Tslf) (U.S. Gfc), Manuel Leon Hoyos
Journal of Financial Crises
The 2007–09 financial crisis reached a critical stage in March 2008. Amid falling house prices and downgrades of mortgage-related securities, financial markets became severely disrupted. The Federal Reserve—the US central bank—became increasingly concerned about the inability of the 20 primary dealers, including the five largest US investment banks, to fund themselves in short-term funding markets, such as the repurchase agreement market, then estimated at $10 trillion. In response, the Fed created several emergency lending facilities to restore market liquidity that required the Fed to invoke Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The Term Securities Lending Facility authorized the Federal …
The Federal Reserve’S Response To The 1987 Market Crash (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard
The Federal Reserve’S Response To The 1987 Market Crash (U.S. Historical), Kaleb B. Nygaard
Journal of Financial Crises
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987, and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity, as needed, “to support the economic and financial system”; (2) providing support to the Treasury securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements; (3) allowing the federal funds rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0% and below; and (4) intervening directly to …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response E: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Securitization is a process that allows banks and other lenders to package loans and sell them as bonds called asset-backed securities (ABS), removing them from their balance sheets and immediately generating cash for new loans. ABS are an important component of the financing cycle for many types of loans to households and small businesses, including mortgages. In the fall of 2008, financial markets began experiencing disturbances as the effects of the U.S. subprime market meltdown spread. The ABS market froze decreasing the volume of new loans to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve became very concerned about the potential …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response D: Commercial Paper Market Facilities, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response D: Commercial Paper Market Facilities, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
During the summer of 2007, the U.S. residential mortgage market began to decline sharply negatively impacting the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, which often relied on mortgages as underlying support. Money Market Mutual Funds (MMMFs), significant investors in commercial paper (CP), quickly retreated from the market, causing a substantial decline in outstanding ABCP. In September 2008, pressures on the markets severely escalated again, when the Reserve Primary Fund MMMF “broke the buck” and prompted run-like redemption requests by many MMMF investors. These disruptions resulted in higher rates and shorter maturities, practically freezing the market for term CP. Concerned about the …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response C: Providing U.S. Dollars To Foreign Central Banks, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response C: Providing U.S. Dollars To Foreign Central Banks, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
The financial crisis that began in late 2007 with the decline in the United States (U.S.) subprime mortgage markets quickly spread to other markets and eventually disrupted the interbank funding markets in the U.S. as well as overseas. To address the strain in the U.S. dollar (USD) funding markets, the Federal Reserve worked with foreign central banks around the world to provide USD liquidity to affected overseas markets by entering into currency swap agreements. Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the resulting further destabilization of the world’s financial systems, the size and utilization of these swaps …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Patricia C. Mosser, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response B: Lending & Credit Programs For Primary Dealers, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Patricia C. Mosser, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Beginning in the summer 2007 the Federal Reserve (the Fed) deployed numerous conventional and innovative programs to address the credit crisis occurring in the wholesale lending markets that was beginning to affect the broader financial markets and threaten the economy at large. Two of those programs, the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) were aimed at providing liquidity to primary dealers and required the Fed to rely on its authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. Section 13(3) is a Depression Era amendment that permits the Fed expanded powers in “unusual and …
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response A: Lending & Credit Programs For Depository Institutions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
The Federal Reserve’S Financial Crisis Response A: Lending & Credit Programs For Depository Institutions, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
Beginning in summer 2007, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) was called upon to address a severe disruption in the interbank lending markets sparked by a downturn in the subprime mortgage market. As these developments began to impact the ability of banks to raise adequate funding, the Fed encouraged them to utilize the Discount Window (DW), its standing facility for lending to depository institutions, and repeatedly decreased the lending rate to make the facility more accessible. Despite the Fed’s efforts, for a number of reasons, including historical perceptions of stigma, banks were reluctant to utilize the DW. In December 2007, the …
Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker
Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker
Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current
The 2008 recession affected the American economy more than any recession since the Great Depression. Unlike its response to the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve aimed to stimulate the economy through all means in its power. However, the Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy tools were not viable options due to the zero lower bound. As a result, the Federal Reserve pursued an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing which involved purchases of long-term assets on a scale never before seen in the United States. Since its inception, quantitative easing has faced significant scrutiny over its merit and has …
Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises C: U.S. 2009 Stress Test, Chase P. Ross, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick
Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises C: U.S. 2009 Stress Test, Chase P. Ross, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
When President Obama took office in 2009, the Treasury focused on restarting bank lending and repairing the ability of the banking system as a whole to perform the role of credit intermediation. In order to do so, the Treasury needed to raise public confidence that banks had sufficient buffers to withstand even a very adverse economic scenario, especially given heightened uncertainty surrounding the outlook of the U.S. economy and potential losses in the banking system. The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP)—the so-called “stress tests”—sought to rigorously measure the resilience of the largest bank holding companies. Those found to have insufficient …
Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises B: U.S. Guarantees During The Global Financial Crisis, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick
Guarantees And Capital Infusions In Response To Financial Crises B: U.S. Guarantees During The Global Financial Crisis, June Rhee, Andrew Metrick
Journal of Financial Crises
During 2008-09, the federal government extended multiple guarantee programs in an effort to restore the financial market and contain the panic and crisis in the market. For example, the Treasury provided a temporary guarantee program for the money market funds, the FDIC decided to stand behind certain debts and non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, and the Treasury, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve agreed to share losses in certain assets belonging to Citigroup. This case reviews these guarantee programs implemented during the global financial crisis by the government and explores the different rationale that shaped certain design features of each program.
Disruption In The Repo Market - A Sign Of Systemic Issues, Tinatin Bezhanidze
Disruption In The Repo Market - A Sign Of Systemic Issues, Tinatin Bezhanidze
Senior Projects Spring 2020
The Repurchase Agreement (repo) market is an essential part of the financial system. Thus, a disruption in the repo market in September of 2019, leading to the first Federal Reserve intervention since the Global Financial Crisis, sowed panic. This paper discusses some of the possible explanations of the repo crisis, such as tax payments draining liquidity at the same time as the Treasury bonds were settled, changes in regulations leading to inability to use the reserves on the market, a problem of market domination and change in behavior of the non-bank participants. It builds on the theories of the economist …
How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz
How The Federal Reserve Aided The Peoples Bank Of China In Addressing Its 2015 Stock Market Crash, Alec Buchholtz
Journal of Financial Crises
An insight into the July 2015 exchange between the Federal Reserve Board and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) discussing efforts to apply lessons from the 1987 "Black Monday" stock market crash to a similar crash that was occurring in China.
The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner
The Early Phases Of The Financial Crisis: Reflections On The Lender Of Last Resort, Timothy F. Geithner
Journal of Financial Crises
This essay discusses the powers and limitations of the Federal Reserve’s role as Lender of Last Resort and how it deployed those powers during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. It considers the Fed’s authorities and the frameworks that it relied on in utilizing its powers to calm markets in turmoil and to assist specific financial institutions.
Public Actors In Private Markets: Toward A Developmental Finance State, Robert Hockett, Saule Omarova
Public Actors In Private Markets: Toward A Developmental Finance State, Robert Hockett, Saule Omarova
Saule T. Omarova
The recent financial crisis brought into sharp relief fundamental questions about the social function and purpose of the financial system, including its relation to the “real” economy. This Article argues that, to answer these questions, we must recapture a distinctively American view of the proper relations among state, financial market, and development. This programmatic vision – captured in what we call a “developmental finance state” – is based on three key propositions: (1) that economic and social development is not an “end-state” but a continuing national policy priority; (2) that the modalities of finance are the most potent means of …
A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala
A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala
Undergraduate Economic Review
This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.
U.S. Monetary Policy: Qe3, Warren Coats
U.S. Monetary Policy: Qe3, Warren Coats
Warren Coats
The Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) is not likely to help the U.S. economy’s recovery, which is already underway, but increases the risks of new asset bubbles and inflation.
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest
James J Forest
In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest
The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest
James J Forest
In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …
Understanding The Legitimacy Of Both Dissension And Acceptance Of Accommodative Monetary Policy, Maximilian Bevan
Understanding The Legitimacy Of Both Dissension And Acceptance Of Accommodative Monetary Policy, Maximilian Bevan
Maximilian Bevan
No abstract provided.
The Fed’S Binge, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel
The Fed’S Binge, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel