Macroeconomics Commons^™

Fiscal Administration Versus Fiscal Policy: An Investigation Into The Determinants Of The Real Tax Revenues From Consumption Tax In Egypt, Nariman Zahran

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis highlights the importance of fiscal administration relative to fiscal policies. It presents a broad view of the developments in both fields and tests their effects on real revenues from consumption tax in Egypt from fiscal year 2002 till 2023. It initially explains the proxies used for fiscal administration: the size of the tax base and the collection lag. The major fiscal policy change in Egypt was shifting from sales tax to Value-Added Tax (VAT) during fiscal year 2016/17. The effects of fiscal administration and fiscal policy on real tax revenues will be assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag …

Endogenous Business Cycles And Economic Policy, Peter Skott

Economics Department Working Paper Series

This paper examines the dynamics of Keynesian models that incorporate feedback effects from the labor market to income distribution, in- vestment, aggregate demand and output. A baseline version of the model can generate endogenous growth cycles, but cumulative divergence and economic collapse also become possible for plausible parameter values. Extensions of the model that include monetary and Öscal policy show greater robustness: the local instability of the stationary point leads to limit cycles (rather than complete collapse), even when large, destabilizing changes are made to parameters describing the private sector. The robustness of the general approach is reinforced by the …

Modern Monetary Theory: Merits, Critiques, And Contemporary Implications, Rebecca Singleton, Thomas Herndon

Honors Thesis

The study of macroeconomics is a diverse field, with conflicting opinions and numerous camps of thought. The election of 2016 brought this to the public attention, as the appointment of Stephanie Kelton as Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign economic advisor brought Dr. Kelton’s heterodox school of macroeconomic policy to the attention of mass media. In particular, Modern Monetary Theory became a public discussion, particularly in the wake of stimulus spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a heterodox macroeconomic theory most discussed in far-left and post-Keynesian academic circles, has faced backlash from a centrist mass media. I investigate the …

Long-Run Effects Of Austerity, Guilherme Klein Martins

Economics Department Working Paper Series

This paper provides evidence that austerity shocks have long-run negative effects on GDP. Besides addressing the important gap in the growing fiscal research regarding the short time horizon of the estimations, this paper analyzes two other important assumptions made in the literature regarding the (i) symmetry of episodes of fiscal expansion and con- traction and (ii) uniformity of fiscal multipliers for different sizes of shocks. We use narrative fiscal shocks and propensity score reweighting in a local projections setup to account for the potential endogeneity of austerity policies and the non-linearity of its effects over time. The estimation is also …

Is Egypt On A Sustainable Path Of Debt Repayment: Evidence From Imf Framework And Fiscal Reaction Function, Maha Rashied

Theses and Dissertations

Fiscal policy is the starting point for an economy to achieve solid economic and social objectives through macroeconomic stability. Risks associated with excessive borrowing and the required fiscal adjustments are threatening especially to developing countries whose debt to GDP ratios are on the rise. Those countries’ fiscal policies’ sustainability is questioned; hence this research aims at testing for Egypt public debt sustainability and assessing the method capitalized on by the Egyptian authorities; the IMF Approach. By comparing the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Approach to the fiscal reaction function with ARDL and VAR as estimation methods, the results of both methods …

Leveraging Import Substitution For Economic Expansion: The Case Of Nigeria, Paul Ihuoma Oluikpe

Bullion

The objective of this paper is to describe the import substitution policies of Nigeria with a historical and analytical outlook with a view to amplifying its dimensions of impact, and recommending potential options for optimizing policy and implementation. Method The methodology adopted for this paper is descriptive and historical analysis. Comparisons were drawn from various countries policies such as Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Korea, and the Philippines and outcomes are highlighted, and then extrapolated to the Nigerian context with a view to understanding the local context in the light of peer country implementation. The results from the implementation …

Three Essays On Gender-Specific Employment Outcomes Of Macroeconomic Policies, Selin Secil Akin

Doctoral Dissertations

This three-essay dissertation examines the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on gender-disaggregated employment outcomes both theoretically and empirically. The first essay constructs a structuralist macroeconomic model that explores channels whereby fiscal and monetary policies impact women’s paid and unpaid work. The essay discusses two factors related to labor market segregation that can explain differential effects of macroeconomic policies on male and female employment: the labor intensity of female-dominated sectors, and different responses of capacity utilization to aggregate demand shocks in male and female-dominated sectors. In addition, a decline in output resulting from aggregate demand shocks may increase women’s unpaid …

Empirical Analysis Of China’S Exchange Rate And Macroeconomic Policy, Jia Ji

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the effects of exchange rate and macroeconomic policy in China. It consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism. As China’s domestic financial markets deepen and develop further toward a market-based system, the country’s monetary policy transmission should continue to improve in the sense that the policy instrument’s influence on economic conditions increases in magnitude and stabilized across time. Using a short-term key interest rate as a standard monetary policy tool and time-varying parameter techniques, this study empirically demonstrates that China’s monetary policy framework is in the midst of transitioning to a …

Essays On Capital Structure Of Nations, Giovanni Perez

University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Implications Of Macroeconomic Controls In Ghana, Wisdom Takumah

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Ghana’s desire to achieve sustainable economic growth with relatively stable price level pursue both monetary and fiscal policies that could lead to macroeconomic. This study examines the effects of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth and determine the level of convergence of growth for Ghana using structural equation modeling (SEM) using time series data from 2008 to 2017. Both short run and long-run results revealed that the ratio of government spending to private investment was statistically significant and it exerted a positive impact on economic growth, an indication that government expenditure is a key channel through which we can …

Three Essays On Fiscal Policy, Sinem Buber Singh

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the domestic and international effects of fiscal policy shocks on country risk, stock markets returns and trading partners. There are three essays in this study.

First essay examines the relative impacts of macroeconomic, financial and political variables on country risk for five advanced economies; the US, the UK, Canada and Singapore for 1984:M1-2014:M12 and Germany for 1990:M9-2014:M12 time periods. To do so, I follow a two stage estimation procedure. In the first stage, a CAPM is used to estimate time-variant country betas which are used as a proxy for country risk by using a DCC-GARCH model. Then, …

An Exploration Of Stock-Flow Consistent Models: An Analysis Of Fiscal Policy Effectiveness, Quinn Patrick Mcinerney

Senior Projects Spring 2017

This project explores the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach to modeling with the goal of examining the effectiveness of different fiscal policy tools, specifically tax policies and government expenditure. By exploring the historical and theoretical elements of stock-flow consistent models, we aim to gather insight on past successful models proven to predict crises. This paper begins with a history and continues into a simple SFC model thought experiment, which emphasizes the flexibility of the models as well as a precursor to the shock approach we employ at the end of the paper. We create Model ECONOMY with several strong assumptions, such …

The Curious Case Of Greece: The Impact Of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Key Macroeconomic Variables. A Var Based Approach., Manny Kaliontzakis

Master's Theses

For years, the Vector Autoregressive approach has been the main tool for monetary economics and macroeconomic researchers around the world. Leading central banking figures, academics, and modern economic think tanks have used the approach to determine the effects of interest rate shocks on basic macroeconomic variables such as GDP, industrial production and unemployment rate. Shocking policy variables, such as interest rates or long term bond rates have given economists the ability to run reliable forecasts. The last 20 years have seen a turn in the use of the VAR approach on fiscal policy as well. Even though, in general, previous …

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif

Business Administration

This paper examines the effect of the developments introduced since 2003 in Egypt on the nature of interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives. Utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the dynamic interaction of policies and their effects on macroeconomic aggregates are investigated. The findings support the success of the developments in eliminating the fiscal dominance. However, coordination between policies is still weak to achieve the macroeconomic stabilization objectives. The results also prove the conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real GDP. However, the fiscal multiplier is very small. Likewise, expansionary monetary policy …

Balance Of Power In Monetary And Fiscal Policymaking And Its Effect On Economic Outcomes, Rachel Ng

Senior Theses and Projects

By analyzing the balance of power between key policymakers involved in restoring the economy back to health during two periods in history – the Nixon administration and the 2008 financial crisis –, my thesis reveals the detrimental effects the political business cycle has on the success of recovery. In the Nixon era, the evidence supports the notion that Nixon coerced Burns into lowering interest rates past Burns’ threshold, which exacerbated inflation and sent the economy into the dismal state of stagflation. Contrary to the popularly held belief that the Fed acts as an arm of the Treasury, Bernanke held his …

Three Essays Concerning The Relationship Between Exports, Macroeconomic Policy, And Economic Growth, Brandon James Sheridan

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation consists of three essays that collectively investigate the relationship between exports, macroeconomic policy and economic growth. The first essay investigates the relationship between disaggregated exports and growthto address why many developing countries rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods.Using regression tree analysis, I find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. The results imply that a country needs a minimum level of education before it is …

Appropriate Fiscal Policy Over The Business Cycle: Proper Stimulus Policies Can Work, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful recommendations for policy-makers, particularly in times of recession. Others take the laissez-faire view that policy reactions to the business cycle do not help in a rational expectations world and indeed do harm by increasing uncertainty. Still others, while not necessarily viewing themselves as in any sense ―Keynesian,‖ have a nagging feeling that sometimes doing nothing …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2010, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

2010 annual report reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and appraises the macroeconomic policies in 2010. the report is structured into two parts. Part 1 reviews the corporate operations of the bank, while the part 2 evaluates the performance of the economy against the challenges in both the thrust of monetary policy and other financial measures was to improve liquidity and enhance the efficiency and stability of the financial system without compromising the primary goal of monetary and price stability.

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …

Do Fiscal Responsibility Laws Matter? Evidence From Emerging Markets Suggests Not, John Thornton

John Thornton

This paper asks whether the adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs) has improved fiscal performance in nine emerging market economies, as measured by developments in their key fiscal balances. Examining these economies alone, their fiscal performance improved on average between the period before FLRs were adopted and the period after they were adopted. However, emerging market economies that did not adopt FLRs also experienced improvements in their fiscal performance around the same time. The finding suggests that the better fiscal performance in the nine emerging market economies resulted from something other than the adoption of FLRs.

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2008., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)'s 2008 report evaluates macroeconomic policies and outcomes, focusing on corporate operations and the economy's performance against domestic and external economic and financial developments. The CBN's monetary policy stance and banking and financial measures were deployed to ensure price stability and financial sector soundness. Despite the global economic downturn, the financial system remained relatively stable and overall macroeconomic performance was satisfactory. The formal financial system at end-December 2008 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Insurance Commission, the National Pension Commission, and various banks. The banking sector …

Explaining Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy In African Countries, John Thornton

John Thornton

Simple time series regressions for 37 low-income African countries during 1960–2004 suggest that government consumption is highly pro-cyclical,with consumption responding more than proportionately to fluctuations in output in many cases. The results from a cross-country specification suggest that government consumption is more procyclical in those African countries that are more reliant on foreign aid inflows and that are less corrupt, and that it is less procyclical in countries with unequal income distribution and that are more democratic. These results contrast with those from recent research using data sets that comprise a more diverse groups of countries in terms of geography …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2007, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 2007, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) faced significant challenges in monetary management due to statutory allocations to government tiers, autonomous foreign exchange inflows, and pre-election spending. These challenges were addressed through Open Market Operations (OMO), issuance of treasury securities, standing facilities, and foreign exchange swaps. The introduction of the monetary policy rate (MPR) in December 2006 moderated inter-bank rates, encouraged trading, and improved the transmission of monetary policy actions. The Bank intensified its non-regular management activities to ensure the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) target was met. The financial system at end-2007 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2001, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Report, as in the past, reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria in its efforts at discharging its mandate for the fiscal year 2001. The major objectives of monetary policy for 2001 were outlined in the Bank's Monetary Policy Circular No. 35, which aimed to maintain internal and external balance, contribute to sustainable output growth and poverty reduction, and focus on the banking system, rate, rate regime, viability, and stability. Key policy targets included growth in broad money, narrow money, aggregate bank credit, growth in bank credit to the government, private sector, inflation rate, and GDP growth. …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1986 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1986. The development in 1986 were mixed. The GDP at constant 1977/78 factor cost was estimated at N25,290 million, representing a decline of 3.3 per cent and the decline was largely due to poor performance of the manufacturing, crude petroleum, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The trajectory of monetary aggregates was relatively in the download direction. Money supply indicated a 1.2 per …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1984, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1984 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1984. It also examines future economic outlook. In 1984, the index of industrial production fell by 10.2 per cent significantly due to the poor performance of the manufacturing sector whose index of production fell by 18.2 per cent. In respect of domestic prices, the supply-side factors were dominant in exerting upward pressures on prices. There were acute shortages in consumer goods and …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1964, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1964 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1964. Export earnings of the developing countries rose during 1964, reflecting a continuing upswing in economic activity in the industrial countries. The rate of increase, however, was somewhat slower than in 1963. The share of the developing countries in total world exports in 1964, however, amounted to 22.1 per cent as compared with 22.9 per cent in 1963. World exports rose substantially …