Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Framework For Forecasting Coastal Water Level In Virginia Beach, Md Mahmudul Hasan, Malachi Schram, Sridhar Katragadda, Diana Mcspadden, Alisa N. Udomvisawakul, Heather Richter, Frank Liu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Coastal areas like Virginia Beach, USA, are increasingly vulnerable to flooding. To mitigate the impact of flooding, it is crucial for the City of Virginia Beach to have reliable 72-hour-ahead (3 days) forecasts of water levels at key gauge locations. To support this effort, several sensors have been installed throughout the city to monitor water levels and other environmental parameters such as wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure. Leveraging sensor data from one of these locations, we developed an uncertainty-aware deep learning model to forecast water levels. We employed deep quantile regression (DQR) to quantify variability in the predictions and …

Improving The Performance Of Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships For Sustainable Development In Coastal Areas : Sweden (Hanö Bay) As A Case Study, Jennie Larsson

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

Coastal areas are vital for both ecosystems and human societies. Comprising diverse terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, coastal areas provide us with essential resources and services. However, these areas are under threat from human activities and climate change, necessitating new governance structures to ensure their sustainable management and conservation. This research investigates how to improve the performance of local multi-stakeholder partnerships (M-SPs) in coastal areas, promoted as key mechanisms for achieving sustainable development goals. By drawing on stakeholder theory and using Pattberg & Widerberg’s (2014) analytical framework with nine building blocks for successful M-SPs as a foundation, the study examined …

Investigating The Thermal Stratification Patterns Of A Shallow Polymictic Boreal Shield Lake And The Effectiveness Of Models In Predicting Shallow Lake Thermal Profiles, Matthew Roberts

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Thermal stratification is a core process of lakes which plays a critical role in shaping the ecological dynamics of lakes, influencing major processes like nutrient cycling and oxygen availability. For shallow polymictic lakes, thermal stratification patterns present some unique differences due to the complex and variable nature of these lakes. In this thesis, I examined thermal stratification in a shallow polymictic lake in northwestern Ontario during the ice-free season of 2019 to investigate the frequency, duration, and driving factors of thermal stratification. The lake underwent 146 separate stratification events, with a median duration of 2 hours per event, with a …

The Response Of Tropopause Phenomena To Stratospheric Variability: Rossby Wave Breaking And Tropopause Polar Vortices, Cameron R. Paquette

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Variability in the high-latitude wintertime stratospheric flow, often referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, can precede anomalous conditions in tropospheric flow on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales and impact surface weather. The range of stratospheric impacts on tropospheric conditions range from shifts in the North Atlantic storm tracks, formation of cold spells, and development of extreme precipitation. Impacts of stratospheric variability are known to persist for up to 60 days, providing ample windows of opportunity in forecasting on S2S timescales. This dissertation focuses on the stratospheric impacts on tropopause-level processes, such as Rossby wave breaking (RWB) events and tropopause polar vortices …

Stratospheric Variability And Its Relationship To Cold Air Outbreaks In The United States, Paul T. Panhans

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Only since the early 2000s, has there been a growing body of work linking extreme winter temperature anomalies to the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). However, the understanding behind stratosphere-troposphere coupling and cold air outbreaks (CAOs) remain occasionally contradictory in the literature, making it difficult to properly articulate societal risks. Studies often focused on broad stratospheric influences, but this research directly compared stratospheric variability according to their respective tropospheric impacts. This dissertation filled a knowledge gap, as there has yet to be a comprehensive analysis to quantify the differences in stratospheric variability with and without CAOs …

A Dynamically Adapting Forecast Cone Based On Ensemble Spread, Michael N. Barletta

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Dynamically based ensemble prediction systems have gained considerable attention because they can provide a greater range of possible forecast outcomes and quantify the uncertainty in forecasts. In turn, forecasters can convey clearer messages to the public on the range of forecast scenarios and display inherent uncertainty in weather forecasts, which can be difficult to do with deterministic forecasts. Although global ensemble prediction systems have demonstrated skill in their probabilistic track predictions, the information contained within them is not always fully utilized beyond the mean forecast and standard deviation (i.e., spread). One way that these ensembles could be better employed is …

Influence Of Cloud-Radiative Forcing On Tropical Cyclone Development In Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Jannetta C. Richardson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This research seeks to better understand how cloud–radiative forcing (CRF) influences the structural evolution and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) during the organizaional stage, with a particular focus on environments characterized by moderate vertical wind shear. While CRF has been shown to impact TC development during genesis and mature stages, its role during the transitional post-genesis phase—when TCs exhibit disorganized convection and are highly sensitive to environmental influences—remains poorly understood. Moreover, forecasting TC intensity in moderate shear environments continues to present substantial challenges, underscoring the need for focused investigation of TC development in the moderate-shear regime.

The Weather Research …

Using The High Resolution Rapid Refresh To Validate A Novel Forecast Methodology, Sylvia M. Garmong

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is frequently used by forecasters for short term predictions and although the model performs well in many metrics, previous study (Fovell and Gallagher 2020) identified temperature and windspeed biases within the boundary layer using radiosonde and surface observations. The current work uses a forecast drift metric to study how model forecasts evolve with time and distance to radiosonde sites. The metric is calculated by subtracting model analysis from forecasts at the same valid time, creating a proxy for bias. HRRR data on native model levels are obtained from the Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services …

Deep Convection, Lightning, And Inertio-Gravity Waves: An Analysis Of Precipitation And Wave Dynamics In The Congo Basin, Stephen L. Solimine

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The lack of an extensive in situ observation network throughout equatorial Africa makes it difficult to monitor the Congo climate system. Model and reanalysis products have been used to fill informational gaps but often produce disparate results. To improve model representation of deep convection over the Congo, it’s important to first understand the influence of various thermodynamic and dynamic forces that may be underrepresented. Although satellite based remote sensing retrievals and reanalysis have their own set of limitations, they can offer a great deal of insight into the climate of regions otherwise lacking in observational networks.

The first section of …

Misoscale Vortices In The Eyewall Boundary Layer Of A Tropical Cyclone In A Large Eddy Simulation, Emily A. Lucy

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Since the late 1980s, there have been numerous observations of extreme updrafts, gusts, and small-scale rotation in the eyewall of tropical cyclones (TCs). Research aircraft, dropsondes, and, more recently, mobile radars have collected these observations, most often from within the boundary layer. Previous studies have documented dropsondes associated with extreme gusts and updrafts, while others have discussed specific incidents of misoscale features in tropical cyclones. Several high-resolution numerical simulations of TCs have documented similar features. This study uses one such simulation from Worsnop et al. (2017). A small but intense tropical cyclone in a quiescent environment is simulated.

This simulation …

Analysis Of Extreme Rainfall And Streamflow Events In The Catskill/Delaware Catchment Using The New York State Mesonet, Ada Ellingworth

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Extreme rainfall and streamflow often lead to increased turbidity in reservoirs in the Catskill/Delaware catchment, which is part of the New York City water supply system. To better understand extreme events that lead to increased turbidity, this study takes a dual approach: first, we identify hydrologic conditions during extremes to understand when and why extremes occur. Next, we evaluate an identified extreme case to evaluate mesoscale model skill in this region. Measurements from the New York State Mesonet and United States Geological Survey are used to identify hydrologic conditions from 2017-2024 associated with three extreme event types: rainfall, streamflow, and …

"Assessment Of The Likelihood To Stay Below 2 Degree Celsius Warming: Combining Modeling And Scenario Uncertainty.", Peter M. Booker

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in how much the Earth will warm in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations remains a major challenge for climate science and policy. In particular, estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) directly affect projections of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and the allowable carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C by 2100.

This study assesses the performance of a two-layer energy balance model (EBM) in reproducing TCR and ECS values under CMIP6 forcing scenarios, with a focus on SSP2-4.5. EBM outputs are compared against General Circulation Models (GCMs), and agreement is evaluated using …

The Large-Scale Flow Dynamics And Controls On Recurving Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, Alexander Kyle Mitchell

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

While eastern North Pacific (EPAC) tropical cyclones (TCs) most often move westward over open water, a subset deviates from this typical path, recurving toward higher latitudes or making landfall along the North American coastline. Because such events are relatively rare, they have received less attention, despite their significant contributions to rainfall and wildfire activity across the southwestern United States. This dissertation identifies and characterizes the spatial variability of EPAC TC tracks, analyzes the synoptic environments associated with TC recurvature near the North American coast, presents a detailed case study of two recurving EPAC TCs from late September to early October …

Buoy-Based Eddy Covariance Drag Coefficient At A Near-Shore And Offshore Site, David P. Marcial

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

An eddy covariance (EC) flux system was integrated onto a Navy Oceanographic Meteorological Automatic Device (NOMAD) floating lidar buoy fitted for measuring the offshore wind resource. The EC flux system consisted of two sonic anemometers and an inertial measurement unit that together provided high-frequency (10 Hz) motion-corrected wind measurements. To assess possible impacts of flow distortion, EC momentum fluxes (10 min) were calculated in gravity-aligned, natural, and planar fit (PF) coordinate frames. The buoy was anchored near the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT; near-shore) for validation of the buoy-based EC fluxes against the fixed tower measurements before …

Co-Creation, Interpretations And Engagement With A Movement-Based Symbol For Climate Justice: A Qualitative Inquiry, Kai Reimer-Watts

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The climate crisis demonstrates with complete clarity the need for massive systems-level changes towards far more sustainable societies. Global and local emissions need to decline rapidly to mitigate intensifying climate breakdown, accompanied by climate and sustainability solutions, to secure a far more stable, safe, and just future for all people and all life. Within these changes, engaging in our communities is essential to support and co-create broader solutions to help advance more sustainable societies, reduce negative impacts of a changing climate, and to move towards cultures and systems that recognize natural limits and centre care for people and planet.

‘Climate …

Do Dung Beetles Sink Or Swim: Exploring Dung Beetle Response To Precipitation, Lauren T. Cheshire

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Global climate change constitutes a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services of many taxa. The Mid-Atlantic region of the US is expecting to see an increase in extreme precipitation events and flooding. Dung beetles (Scarabaeinae) can tunnel below the soil surface allowing for water to dissipate into the soil rather than sit on the surface and add to flooding conditions. They also can decrease methane emission by burying dung and reduce outbreaks of pests that prefer the moist environment of dung. They contribute roughly $380 million in ecosystem services annually in the United States, yet their services may be …

Assessing Equity, Environmental Social Justice And Intersectionality In U.S. Federal Policies: A Comparative And Temporal Analysis Of The Department Of Transportation, Department Of Energy, And Environmental Protection Agency, Sneha Basu

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

As the climate crisis intensifies, U.S. federal policies play a critical role in addressing the disproportionate environmental burdens borne by marginalized communities. This thesis assesses how equity, environmental social justice, and intersectionality have been integrated into the policy documents of three key federal agencies: Department of Transportation (DOT), Department of Energy (DOE), and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), over a 20-year period (2004–2024). Using a quantitative content analysis of 46 policy documents, the study evaluates five core dimensions: depth of discussion, clarity of language, inclusiveness of marginalized groups, action-oriented language, and environmental justice considerations. The research reveals significant interagency disparities, with …

Robust Trend Estimation From Temporally Irregular Recreational Fisheries Surveys: A Panel Modeling Framework For Sparse Time Series, Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah, S. M. Taylor, Ute A. Mueller

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Monitoring of recreational fisheries faces ongoing challenges due to irregular data collection and sampling gaps. We used a robust statistical approach combining cross-sectional panel modeling with generalized linear models to analyze discontinuous time series data. We modeled recreational boating patterns across four distinct Western Australian locations using camera monitoring data (2011–2014), and integrated weather conditions and temporal factors to improve trend estimation. Environmental conditions were strongly related to boating activity, particularly wind effects of distinct north–south patterns. Recreational activity decreased at northern locations during easterly winds and at southern locations during northerly winds. Cross-validation demonstrated how environmental factors can be …

Dam It All: A Multi-Scalar Investigation Into The Ecological Role And Function Of Beaver Dams, Kenneth Larsen

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The central theme of this dissertation is ecological scaling, which examines how small, localized features, such as beaver ponds, contribute to large-scale watershed processes and how different modeling approaches at various scales reveal distinct insights. Through a combination of probabilistic modeling and high-resolution empirical research, this work demonstrates that small ponded systems, particularly those created by beavers (Castor canadensis), serve as critical biogeochemical control points, whose contributions to sediment and nutrient dynamics have been historically underestimated.

In Chapter 1, I contextualize this research within the broader fields of freshwater ecology, watershed modeling, and ecological restoration. I introduce the …

Sources Of Underwater Noise, Christine Erbe, Alec J. Duncan, Alexander Gavrilov, Montserrat Landero, Robert D. Mccauley, Iain Parnum, Evgeny Sidenko, Chandra Salgado-Kent, Evgeny Sidenko

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

The marine soundscape, whether in coastal areas or the deepest ocean, in the tropics or at the poles, contains a myriad of sounds. Sounds may be grouped by their origin into geophony (e.g., wind, precipitation, waves, earthquakes, volcanoes, and ice), biophony (e.g., invertebrates, fishes, and marine mammals), and anthropophony (e.g., port construction, mineral and hydrocarbon exploration and production, renewable energy installation, and shipping). This chapter gives a brief overview of the geophony and biophony, and then focuses on the anthropophony. The sounds of boats and ships of various types, marine seismic surveys, drilling, dredging, pile driving, windfarms, geotechnical site investigations, …