Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

"Assessment Of The Likelihood To Stay Below 2 Degree Celsius Warming: Combining Modeling And Scenario Uncertainty.", Peter M. Booker

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in how much the Earth will warm in response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations remains a major challenge for climate science and policy. In particular, estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) directly affect projections of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and the allowable carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C by 2100.

This study assesses the performance of a two-layer energy balance model (EBM) in reproducing TCR and ECS values under CMIP6 forcing scenarios, with a focus on SSP2-4.5. EBM outputs are compared against General Circulation Models (GCMs), and agreement is evaluated using …

Comparison Of Methane Emission Quantification Methods At Landfills In New York State, Alexandra M. Catena

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission increases are a consequence of global population rise and economic growth. It is well known that carbon dioxide is the dominant GHG by mass, but methane has received increasing attention recently due to its high warming potential and relatively short lifetime of about a decade. Methane has several different types of both natural and anthropogenic sources including wetlands, waste management, energy, agriculture and farming, and wildfires, which makes tracking and reducing methane emissions a complex problem. The emission rates of each of these sources are highly uncertain due to differing emission estimation methods, which can be …

The Large-Scale Flow Dynamics And Controls On Recurving Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, Alexander Kyle Mitchell

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

While eastern North Pacific (EPAC) tropical cyclones (TCs) most often move westward over open water, a subset deviates from this typical path, recurving toward higher latitudes or making landfall along the North American coastline. Because such events are relatively rare, they have received less attention, despite their significant contributions to rainfall and wildfire activity across the southwestern United States. This dissertation identifies and characterizes the spatial variability of EPAC TC tracks, analyzes the synoptic environments associated with TC recurvature near the North American coast, presents a detailed case study of two recurving EPAC TCs from late September to early October …

Buoy-Based Eddy Covariance Drag Coefficient At A Near-Shore And Offshore Site, David P. Marcial

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

An eddy covariance (EC) flux system was integrated onto a Navy Oceanographic Meteorological Automatic Device (NOMAD) floating lidar buoy fitted for measuring the offshore wind resource. The EC flux system consisted of two sonic anemometers and an inertial measurement unit that together provided high-frequency (10 Hz) motion-corrected wind measurements. To assess possible impacts of flow distortion, EC momentum fluxes (10 min) were calculated in gravity-aligned, natural, and planar fit (PF) coordinate frames. The buoy was anchored near the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT; near-shore) for validation of the buoy-based EC fluxes against the fixed tower measurements before …

Using Convolutional Neural Networks To Identify Rare Weather Events: Application To Kona Low Classifications With Large-Scale Wind Pattern, Anadhi Sharma

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Extreme events pose challenges in prediction on account of their low frequency and erratic nature. Among these events, Kona lows are rare subtropical cyclones that significantly impact the weather pattern of Hawaii, sometimes causing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding. In the past, studies have used traditional statistical methods such as synoptic climatology, regression analysis, and manual classification that rely on expert judgment to identify Kona lows; however, they often struggle to capture the complex spatial patterns of the Kona storms. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) exhibit a property called translation invariance, which allows them to learn and recognize Kona …

The Response Of Tropopause Phenomena To Stratospheric Variability: Rossby Wave Breaking And Tropopause Polar Vortices, Cameron R. Paquette

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Variability in the high-latitude wintertime stratospheric flow, often referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, can precede anomalous conditions in tropospheric flow on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales and impact surface weather. The range of stratospheric impacts on tropospheric conditions range from shifts in the North Atlantic storm tracks, formation of cold spells, and development of extreme precipitation. Impacts of stratospheric variability are known to persist for up to 60 days, providing ample windows of opportunity in forecasting on S2S timescales. This dissertation focuses on the stratospheric impacts on tropopause-level processes, such as Rossby wave breaking (RWB) events and tropopause polar vortices …

Limitations Of The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Gust Algorithm, Alex M. Glasser

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

ABSTRACT:

Accurate wind and gust forecasts are crucial in operational meteorology, yet there is a distinct gap in the literature regarding the verification of operational gust forecasts. In the present work, we assess the performance of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh's (HRRR) gust potential, verifying it against the Automated Surface Observing System's (ASOS) observed gusts across the Continental United States (CONUS). The HRRR gust's diurnal cycle reveals a significant underprediction of the gust during daylight hours and a slight overprediction of the gust during hours of darkness. The daytime underprediction undermines the assumption that forecasts represent a potential that tends to …

Stratospheric Variability And Its Relationship To Cold Air Outbreaks In The United States, Paul T. Panhans

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Only since the early 2000s, has there been a growing body of work linking extreme winter temperature anomalies to the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). However, the understanding behind stratosphere-troposphere coupling and cold air outbreaks (CAOs) remain occasionally contradictory in the literature, making it difficult to properly articulate societal risks. Studies often focused on broad stratospheric influences, but this research directly compared stratospheric variability according to their respective tropospheric impacts. This dissertation filled a knowledge gap, as there has yet to be a comprehensive analysis to quantify the differences in stratospheric variability with and without CAOs …

A Dynamically Adapting Forecast Cone Based On Ensemble Spread, Michael N. Barletta

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Dynamically based ensemble prediction systems have gained considerable attention because they can provide a greater range of possible forecast outcomes and quantify the uncertainty in forecasts. In turn, forecasters can convey clearer messages to the public on the range of forecast scenarios and display inherent uncertainty in weather forecasts, which can be difficult to do with deterministic forecasts. Although global ensemble prediction systems have demonstrated skill in their probabilistic track predictions, the information contained within them is not always fully utilized beyond the mean forecast and standard deviation (i.e., spread). One way that these ensembles could be better employed is …

Influence Of Cloud-Radiative Forcing On Tropical Cyclone Development In Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Jannetta C. Richardson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This research seeks to better understand how cloud–radiative forcing (CRF) influences the structural evolution and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) during the organizaional stage, with a particular focus on environments characterized by moderate vertical wind shear. While CRF has been shown to impact TC development during genesis and mature stages, its role during the transitional post-genesis phase—when TCs exhibit disorganized convection and are highly sensitive to environmental influences—remains poorly understood. Moreover, forecasting TC intensity in moderate shear environments continues to present substantial challenges, underscoring the need for focused investigation of TC development in the moderate-shear regime.

The Weather Research …

Deep Convection, Lightning, And Inertio-Gravity Waves: An Analysis Of Precipitation And Wave Dynamics In The Congo Basin, Stephen L. Solimine

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The lack of an extensive in situ observation network throughout equatorial Africa makes it difficult to monitor the Congo climate system. Model and reanalysis products have been used to fill informational gaps but often produce disparate results. To improve model representation of deep convection over the Congo, it’s important to first understand the influence of various thermodynamic and dynamic forces that may be underrepresented. Although satellite based remote sensing retrievals and reanalysis have their own set of limitations, they can offer a great deal of insight into the climate of regions otherwise lacking in observational networks.

The first section of …

Understanding The Dynamical Mechanisms Governing Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Persistent Flow Regimes And Their Associated Extreme Weather Events, Tyler Christopher Leicht

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Weather regimes are characterized as patterns of low-frequency variability in the middle to upper troposphere of the extratropics. Weather regimes can also be linked to variations in surface weather, making the study of weather regimes a bridge between traditional synoptic-dynamic meteorology and subseasonal-to-seasonal variability. This dissertation identifies and categorizes persistent flow regimes (PFRs), analyzes the dynamics underpinning PFR formation, identifies the linkages to atmospheric teleconnections, and examines the occurrence of surface weather extremes before and during PFRs.

PFRs are identified from 1979–2022 and grouped into five clusters using k-means clustering, which then allows for time-lag composite analysis to determine the …

Big Cells, Big Impact: Unravelling Seasonal Patterns Of Net Primary Production In Narragansett Bay, Dominique Jae Lockwood

Open Access Master's Theses

Net primary production is a measurement of available energy, or the amount of biomass that phytoplankton produce during photosynthesis that fuels marine food webs and drives carbon cycling. Despite its ecological importance, net primary production is relatively understudied in comparison to chlorophyll-a, which is often used as a proxy for biomass rather than productivity. In this study, we measured size-fractionated net primary production and chlorophyll-a concentrations in Narragansett Bay over a 14-month period from January 2022 to February 2023. Weekly surface water samples were collected and filtered to distinguish between small (> 10 μm) and large ( …

Investigating Ventilation In The Amundsen Sea, Antarctica Using An Eddy-Permitting Regional Ocean Model, Lauren Kowalski

Open Access Master's Theses

The Amundsen Sea is not a known site of bottom water formation, yet the presence of Winter Water reveals the role of deep winter mixing. In this study, we investigate how the production of Winter Water within the Amundsen Sea leads to ventilation by introducing a surface tracer into a regional configuration of MITgcm with ECCO-constrained forcing conditions for the years from 1998 to 2023. Modeled mixed layer depths routinely reached depths of 300 m or deeper in coastal polynyas and along sea ice divergence zones, driven by changes in salinity from sea ice formation and wind stress. The annual …

Navigating Online Perceptions Of Offshore Wind On Social Media: Facebook Discussions On Recent Whale Strandings, Giselle Hausmann

Open Access Master's Theses

The Biden-Harris administration implemented a goal to achieve 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 (US Department of Interior, 2021). The rapid increase in offshore wind activity on the East Coast, combined with NOAA’s declared unusual mortality event in 2016/2017, has sparked a discussion about offshore wind being a potential cause of whale deaths. This paper aims to analyze the discourse on offshore wind and whales through a content analysis of Facebook comments. Facebook pages from Massachusetts (The New England Aquarium), Rhode Island (Rhode Island DEM), New York (The Atlantic Marine Conservation Society), New Jersey (Marine Mammal Stranding Center), …

Investigating The Effectiveness Of Best Management Practices In Reducing Fecal Bacteria In Narrow River, Rhode Island, Katherine Thompson

Open Access Master's Theses

Fecal bacterial contamination shapes how communities manage and use estuarine waters, with consequences for ecosystem health and public access. In Rhode Island's Narrow River, elevated concentrations of fecal coliforms and enterococci have restricted shellfishing for decades despite ongoing management efforts. From 2004 to 2018, local organizations implemented Best Management Practices (BMPs) to address water quality challenges, yet their effectiveness remains incompletely understood. This study analyzes three decades of monitoring data using linear regression, generalized additive models, and Before After Control Impact methods to evaluate BMP effectiveness and identify key drivers of contamination. Linear regression revealed spatially variable trends, with bacterial …

Semi-Empirical Prediction Of Wave Runup During Nor’Easters In New England, Pranav Sai

Open Access Master's Theses

Wave runup amplifies the impact of storm events on coastal beaches, accelerating erosion and threatening infrastructure. Accurate quantification of extreme runup during storms is critical for improving coastal hazard predictions and informing resilience strategies. Field measurements of wave and water levels enable empirically derived formulas to calculate runup, parameterizing setup, incident swash, and infragravity swash separately. This study predicts extreme runup across Napatree Point, a sandy barrier at Rhode Island’s westernmost point, known for its dissipative beach morphology and exposure to intense storm activity. Using the ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models, mean sea level and surface wave parameters were simulated …

A Question Of Transparency, John Adam

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Question 1: Why is it easier to see through rain than fog?

Start thinking about this by imagining a fixed volume (V) of water being dispersed into, say, N identical droplets of diameter d. Surface area and volume considerations should lead to the answer in terms of V and d.

Question 2: (a) How "long" (in meters) might such a rain shower or fog bank be?

Hint: Suppose you are looking along a linear stack of S cubes with 1-m sides (through the rain or fog). Each cube contains N drops. If p is the visibility (i.e., the fraction of …

A Question Of Transparency: Solutions For Fermi Questions, March 2025, John Adam

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Question 1: Why is it easier to see through rain than fog?

Start thinking about this by imagining a fixed volume (V) of water being dispersed into, say, N identical droplets of diameter d. Surface area and volume considerations should lead to the answer in terms of V and d.

Solution to Question 1: N = VI(πd³/6) = 6V/πd³ ≈ 2V/d³.

The cross-sectional area A of each drop is πd²/4 ≈ 3d²/4, so the total area blocked off (assuming no overlapping drops—so this is an upper bound) is NA ≈ 1.5V/d, so the area blocked off is inversely proportional to …

Improving The Performance Of Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships For Sustainable Development In Coastal Areas : Sweden (Hanö Bay) As A Case Study, Jennie Larsson

World Maritime University Ph.D. Dissertations

Coastal areas are vital for both ecosystems and human societies. Comprising diverse terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, coastal areas provide us with essential resources and services. However, these areas are under threat from human activities and climate change, necessitating new governance structures to ensure their sustainable management and conservation. This research investigates how to improve the performance of local multi-stakeholder partnerships (M-SPs) in coastal areas, promoted as key mechanisms for achieving sustainable development goals. By drawing on stakeholder theory and using Pattberg & Widerberg’s (2014) analytical framework with nine building blocks for successful M-SPs as a foundation, the study examined …