Meteorology Commons^™

2026 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story of January 2026 was the major winter storm that impacted the state from Saturday, January 24 through Monday, January 26 with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, followed by extremely cold conditions. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were in place across the state on Friday, January 23, as snow and sleet spread into Tennessee from the west in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday. Most areas of the state saw an initial round of snow and sleet, before a layer of warm air aloft caused most locations to see …

Identification And Characterization Of Tornado Seismic Signals In The Central U.S., Seth Thompson

Theses and Dissertations--Earth and Environmental Sciences

Tornadoes cause extensive property damage and endanger lives. While Doppler radar can indicate the potential for tornado development, it cannot confirm that a tornado is in contact with the ground unless a debris signature is present. While on the ground, a significant amount of a tornado’s energy may be transferred into the earth as seismic vibrations. Thus, seismometers have the potential to detect on-the-ground tornadoes. Since 1960, only five papers have published seismic recordings from tornadoes. These studies have mostly reported on seismic waves generated by tornadoes at a relatively large range, from 0.01-2.5 Hz, representing uncertainty in the dominant …

Liutex - A Fluid Vortex, Oscar Alvarez

Mathematics Dissertations

Fluid vortices are found everywhere in our universe. A vortex can take the form of almost anything - from the classical spiral vortex to chaotic plumes. Defining a vortex physically and mathematically is absolutely necessary if we desire to study vortices and their interactions with each other as well as our physical world. Fluid vortices are incredibly important in the study of turbulent flows. From determining wear, optimizing design for better flow, efficiency, etc., to even predicting the weather on Earth or other planets, having the ability to measure vortices in fluid flow is invaluable. In this study, I investigate …

Forecasting Precipitation In Cuba Using Graph Based Deep Learning, Taufiqul Islam

Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses

Daily precipitation forecasting remained a challenging problem in regions characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear atmospheric dynamics, and intermittent rainfall behavior. Cuba represented a particularly complex case due to the combined influence of tropical cyclones, easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems, and orographic effects, which produced highly variable rainfall patterns in both space and time. Conventional statistical and machine-learning models typically treated stations independently and therefore overlooked spatial dependencies that strongly influenced rainfall variability across the island.

This study developed a spatiotemporal deep-learning framework for daily precipitation forecasting across 40 spatial nodes in Cuba using data from 1979 to 2023. The …

Key Processes Involved In The Vortex Alignment Of Sheared Tropical Cyclones, Luis O. Hernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are challenging to forecast when under vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS tilts a TC’s vortex, creating asymmetries in its structure that impedes intensification. Although work has been done to conceptualize and understand how TCs evolve under shear and how they axisymmetrize and intensify, vortex alignment remains a complex and unresolved topic. The goal of this study is to assess what physical processes are important to tilt reduction and how these processes evolve in weak TCs. Using the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System Model-B (HAFS-B) 2.1, a case study on two storms, Hurricane Earl (2022) and Hurricane Lee (2023) …

Drivers Of Extreme Streamflow During A Snowmelt-Enhanced Heavy Rainfall And Atmospheric River Event In The Catskill Mountains Of New York, Christopher A. Gilberti

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This study uses atmospheric reanalysis, precipitation and snow water equivalent (SWE) analyses, mesonet observations, and streamflow records to examine the impact of an atmospheric river storm that produced heavy rainfall and snowpack ablation across the Catskill Mountains of New York on 24–25 December 2020. Earlier in December, an antecedent storm produced SWE values in the Catskills above the 90^th percentile for that point in the season. The atmospheric river event followed with strong southerly warm-air advection ahead of an anomalously deep trough, temperatures and dewpoints that exceeded 10°C, and heavy orographically enhanced rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Sensible heat fluxes …

The Impact Of Downdraft Ventilation On Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Structure Using Aerial Reconnaissance Observations, Nicholas E. Johnson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity can be challenging to predict since it is modulated by many physical processes. One of these processes is ventilation: the injection of relatively cool, dry environmental air into the warm core of a TC that acts as “anti-fuel”, inhibiting intensification and increasing uncertainty with intensity forecasts. While ventilation has been examined in numerical modeling studies, there have been a limited number of observational studies investigating ventilation. The two primary objectives of this dissertation are to develop methods for measuring downdraft ventilation from aerial reconnaissance observations and to use those observations to better understand how ventilation affects …

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …

Linking Boundary Type, Storm Mode, And Tornado Intensity In Illinois, Jakob Barton

A with Honors Projects

A large dataset of tornadoes across Illinois from 2007-2024 were analyzed for different characteristics of thunderstorms and tornadoes, these characteristics were then compared with each other to find correlation and trends.

Applications Of Machine Learning For Evaluating Downward-Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions And Subseasonal Forecasts Of Opportunity, Elena M. Fernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Wintertime stratospheric dynamics provide key information for understanding atmospheric teleconnections and improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions on timescales of two weeks to two months. Periods of enhanced predictability, often referred to as forecasts of opportunity, arise from large-scale teleconnected variability, within which the stratosphere serves as an important precursor for tropospheric states, such as near-surface temperatures. While traditional diagnostics of downward coupled stratosphere-troposphere interactions typically rely on zonal-mean representations of wind and geopotential height, this dissertation presents an alternative vortex-centric framework through metrics that capture the daily geometric and dynamical evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex. The proposed stratospheric …

The Effects Of Downdraft And Radial Ventilation In Hurricanes Earl (2010) And Edouard (2014), Jacob Vile

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) is difficult to predict. Specifically, ventilation, the intrusion of dry and/or cool (i.e., low equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) air inside the TC, can have differing effects on TCs. Downdraft ventilation is the downward transport of below-mean  theta-e air by downdrafts, and radial ventilation is the inward transport of below-mean theta-e air by storm-relative radial winds. If this low theta-e air is able to get ingested by updrafts, it can result in a reduction of convection in the TC, thereby reducing intensity. Although most studies of ventilation have been conducted …

2025 - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2025 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Excerpt: 

The mean (average) temperature for 2025 across Tennessee was a bit warmer than normal for most of the state, with the majority of areas reporting temperatures that were 1-2°F above the 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals, with some areas, mostly in the northeastern section of the state within one degree of normal. However, there were a lot of temperature swings throughout the year with below normal temperatures for most regions of the state in January, July, August, and November, while well above normal temperatures were observed in parts of the state in February, April, May, and June [...]

Smart Pireps: Leveraging Technology To Simplify Pilot Weather Reporting In General Aviation, Emma Hellwege

Honors Projects

This honors project examines how emerging aviation technologies can support or automate components of Pilot Weather Reports (PIREPs) to improve reporting accuracy, reduce pilot workload, and increase participation within the general aviation (GA) community. PIREPs provide essential real-time weather observations—such as turbulence, icing, and visibility—that supplement automated systems and enhance situational awareness for pilots, air traffic control, and meteorologists. However, reports are vastly underutilized due to workload constraints, inconsistent training, voice-only submission methods, and technological disparities across the GA fleet.

Through a structured analysis of federal aviation documentation, sensor capabilities, human factors research, and recent advancements in automation, this study …

2025 December - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

December was defined by quite a bit of temperature variability (though the temperature swings resulted in near-normal monthly averages) and an overall dry pattern.

The month started out cooler than normal, with a slight moderation in the second week of the month, before a strong cold front sent temperatures tumbling into the teens or single-digits and wind chills into the single digits or below zero on December 14 and 15 - with many locations stuck in the 20’s or even teens for high temperatures. Following this cold weather, temperatures quickly rebounded into the normal and then well above …

Dynamics, Predictability And Impacts Of Multi-Year La Niña Event, Nahid A. Hasan

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

This dissertation investigates the dynamics, predictability, and impacts of multi-year La Niña events. Multi-year La Niña events are referred to as extended periods of unusually cooler tropical Pacific that persist for two or more consecutive winters. These prolonged events can increase the risk of natural hazards such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves in the western US and around the world. Despite their worldwide significance, questions remain about the mechanisms driving their initiation, their predictability, and regional hydroclimate impacts.

The first chapter of the dissertation introduces what scientists currently believe causes them, and how well different types of climate models can …

An Objective Method To Locate Shear Lines During The Northeast Monsoon Season In The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The shear line is a narrow zone of maximum horizontal wind shear, typically identified as a confluence zone of low-level wind streams. Previous studies showed that this system can trigger heavy to extreme rainfall events in the Philippines during the northeast monsoon season. However, a research gap remains in objectively identifying and locating this system. Thus, this study develops a detection method that may be used for monitoring and forecasting the location of shear lines. Results show that the gradient of meridional winds in the y-direction (∂V925hPa/∂y), the boundary layer moisture flux convergence, and the 925 hPa relative vorticity may …

Climatology Of Northeast Winds In Northern And Central California: A New Characterization Of The Diablo Wind, Alana R. Macken

Master's Theses

Diablo winds in northern California are known for driving some of the most destructive wildfires in state history. The Camp Fire of 2018, which caused at least 85 civilian fatalities, is just one example of the devastating outcomes associated with these rapidly developing downslope windstorms. While they are known to occur most frequently from fall through spring, much about the structure, evolution, and full spatial extent of these events remains poorly understood. Most previous studies have focused on a limited number of high-impact cases or have defined events using humidity-based thresholds in isolated regions such as the North Bay. As …

2025 November - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The month of November 2025 averaged warmer than normal by 2-4°F across most of the state. The northeastern corner of TN was closer to average, with a few areas even slightly cooler than normal. Additionally, November was drier than normal for most areas, with the exception of a few parts of the Cumberland Plateau and in East TN where heavier bands of precipitation set up while most of the state recorded only light rainfall.

The main weather and climate story of November 2025 was the early taste of winter that impacted the state November 9-12, which also coincided …

2025 October - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

October 2025 was a quiet month for weather across Tennessee. The major stories included improving drought conditions across the western half of the state and relatively large temperature fluctuations. There were some days with heavy rainfall in West Tennessee but flooding was minimal due to the dry conditions in September. Tennessee experienced some pronounced temperature swings during the month with many areas reaching into the 80’s or even 90’s in the first week of October as well as in the middle of October, and then down into the 20’s or 30’s by the end of the month. This …