Meteorology Commons^™

Atmospheric Remote Sensing Using X-Band Radar In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer, Daniel P. Greenway

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric remote sensors have always offered promising technological advancements for measuring atmospheric properties over large spatial areas at high spatiotemporal resolution – a feat not currently possible with present atmospheric measurement technologies. However, remote sensors do not measure these atmospheric properties directly; they rely on robust calibrations or conversions, complex mathematical inversion methods, and/or machine learning to retrieve these properties. These inverse methods rely on the selection of an objective function, a machine learning technique, and an accurate parameterization for atmospheric property estimation. By leveraging inverse methods to improve the characterization of properties measured by remote sensors, this work enables …

An Analysis Of The Rapid Intensification Of Hurricane Milton, Ayden Rodriguez, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Hurricane Milton (October 2024) provides a compelling case study of a multiscale pathway to rapid intensification (RI), highlighting the alignment of synoptic preconditioning, favorable environmental conditions, and rapid inner-core structural evolution. The storm originated from the interaction of multiple tropical waves embedded within a low-level trough associated with the Central American Gyre, which enhanced low-level vorticity and moisture convergence prior to development. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Milton encountered an environment characterized by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and weak vertical wind shear, enabling steady intensification and the onset of explosive RI that exceeded conventional …

Examining Extremes: A Comparison Between Machine Learning Based Southwestern Conus Seasonal Drought And High Fire Risk Event Synoptic Climatologies, Ethan M. Greenberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Southwestern United States (SW CONUS), comprised of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, is a vast region that tens of millions of people call home. Hosting ecosystems ranging from grasslands and shrublands to temperate forests and climate zones ranging from Mediterranean climates to arid deserts, the region is nearly unanimously prone to intense droughts and devastating wildfires. While fire weather conditions and drought are often studied separately or mentioned as background conditions for the other, there are relatively few studies that compare the typical meteorological conditions between the two. This study aims to more closely understand the meteorological relationship between …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Differential Reflectivity (Zdr) Columns Due To Environment In Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Adrianne J. Engel

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Polarimetric signatures have been of interest to researchers and operational forecasters since the completion of the WSR-88D network upgrade in 2013. Differential reflectivity (Z_DR) columns, which are collocated with supercell updrafts, are the focus of this study. Microphysical distributions within these signatures can be used to infer updraft strength and elucidate the processes responsible for updraft intensity and evolution. Z_DR column depth, areal extent, and variability of these metrics through space and time are assessed in a dataset of 114 nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Means of column metrics in nontornadic, non-tornado-producing, and tornado-producing analysis times are evaluated …

Extreme Precipitation Events And Population Exposure: Site Recommendations For The Future Tennessee Mesonet, Victoria G. Redlund

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study examines frequency of and population exposure to extreme rainfall events in Tennessee to guide the placement of future mesonet weather stations. Using 1991-2021 daily nClimGrid precipitation records, extreme events were defined as events of rainfall ≥50 mm. These events were collated on an annual scale and normalized alongside square-root-scaled population densities derived from Landscan to develop extreme rainfall vulnerability maps. Results highlight where extreme rainfall is most frequent relative to population densities in each county. The findings were compared with models of mesonet suitability and feasibility to determine how meteorological needs correlate with siting needs such as land …

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

2026 May - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story for May 2026 across Tennessee was the weather whiplash that many experienced with severe and extreme drought conditions giving way to flash flooding later in the month. Additionally, many saw large and rapid temperature swings with two strong blasts of cold air sending temperatures into the 30’s or low 40’s for many early in the month and again on May 14-15. Followed by a heat wave that brought an early taste of summer to the state from May 16-21. The Bristol/Tri-Cities airport experienced a 2-day span between freezing temperatures and 90-degree heat …

A Climatology Of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings And Their Tropospheric Response, Joe Lovelien, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can significantly influence surface weather, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs) across the midlatitudes. This study presents a climatology of SSWs from 1948-2024 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and examines their temporal distribution, relationships with large-scale climate variability, and impacts on surface temperatures in the United States. SSWs are identified using previously published definitions based on the reversal of zonal-mean winds at 60°N and 10 hPa. A total of 44 SSW events were identified, with a strong seasonal preference for January through March. Some decadal variability is observed, though …

2026 April 30 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Exploring Alternate Methods Of Flood Output Estimation During Natural Disasters, Finley Gardner

Honors College Theses

In April of 2025, extreme flooding damaged many homes and buildings of people across Kentucky. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) produces maps that show the potential for flooding in areas around water bodies, but many of the April flooding damaged areas were well outside of the FEMA classification zones. The main purpose of this thesis research was to create an accurate model of potential flood extent in Kentucky and compare it to FEMA maps. This model did not require extensive computing power and produced a map that accurately depicted flood extent through the use of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) …

2026 April 16 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 April 9 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Developing A Multi-Band Gnss Remote Sensing Station To Measure Precipitable Water Vapor For Flash Flood Nowcasting, Madison Gleydura

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Flash flood nowcasting in Central and Southern Appalachia is particularly challenging due to steep terrain, narrow valleys, highly localized rainfall patterns, and limited measurement coverage. Traditional remote sensing methods, such as Doppler radar and microwave radiometry, suffer from reduced resolution at long range and signal blockage by mountains. GNSS-meteorology offers an established alternative for measuring precipitable water vapor and is currently integrated into several numerical weather models. Recent research demonstrates that commercial-grade GNSS receivers can produce tropospheric products comparable to those from geodetic-grade equipment. The gaps in mountain coverage can be addressed by developing a low-cost, self-contained embedded system that …

Impact Of In Situ Observations From Three Torus Cases On Model Analyses And Forecasts Of Severe Convection, Robert M. Szot

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The quality of forecasts of severe deep convection in high-resolution numerical weather prediction is dependent on the representativeness of the model initial conditions. This representativeness may be negatively impacted by limited observation availability and by the presence of mesoscale heterogeneities that were not detected by conventional observations assimilated into convection-allowing models. By assimilating storm-scale observations from the Targeted Observation by Radars and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) of Supercells (TORUS) campaign into an ensemble styled after the Warn-on-Forecast System, this study aims to investigate if data from field work platforms can improve the quality of initial conditions in the ensemble, potentially …

2026 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of April 2026 was the hot and dry pattern that impacted Tennessee for most of the month and which was a continuation of this same pattern from March. Temperature anomalies across the state in April were slightly less than what we observed in March, but mean temperatures still ranged from 4-8°F above normal for April. Based on mean temperatures for the month, April 2026 was the warmest April on record in Knoxville’s 153-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 0.2°F) and Nashville’s 152-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 1.2°F). April 2026 was …

2026 April - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 - Tennessee Spring Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Seasonal and Annual Climate Summaries

No abstract provided.

Development And Evaluation Of An Mpas-Based Urban Modeling System For The New York City Region, Marco S. Yu, Kristian Rice

Publications and Research

Complex geometry and varying land cover make urban environments difficult to simulate accurately. This research presents a performance evaluation of the newly developed urban modeling system in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). Weather over the New York metropolitan area during June 2018 was simulated using supercomputing resources and the new urban modeling system. Modeled 2-m air temperature was compared with historical hourly observations from five NYC Mesonet stations, one located in each of the five boroughs. Comparison showed that the model follows the timing of warming and cooling well, but overestimates the magnitude of temperature swings at peaks …

Projections Of The Characteristics Of Extreme Precipitation In East Africa Using Bias-Corrected Cmip6 Models, Exavery K. Makula

Tanzania Journal of Science

In the context of ongoing global climate change, the intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to modify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events. Understanding how precipitation extremes will evolve under climate change is critical for East Africa (EA), a region highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards and strongly dependent on rainfall-driven socioeconomic systems. The region experiences two main rainfall seasons, namely the long rains (March-May, MAM) and the short rains (October-December, OND). This study investigates future projections of the characteristics of extreme precipitation across the EA using an ensemble of biascorrected CMIP6 global climate models. Extreme …