Meteorology Commons^™

2025 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

The Unique Features Of Typhoon Rai (2021): An Observational Study, Clint Eldrick R. Petilla, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, Hironori Fudeyasu, Ryuji Yoshida, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

Tropical Cyclone (TC) RAI (2021) made a devastating landfall in the Siargao-Dinagat Islands of the southeastern Philippines on December 16, 2021, causing about USD 942 M in damage, 405 reported deaths and 52 missing. Yet, observational studies on the environmental conditions during TC RAI remain limited, and a comparison with other landfalling TCs were not done. To shed light on the factors that made this TC reach a maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) of 105 kts (194.5 kph) and 915 hPa mean sea level pressure according to the WMO-IBTrACS, this study investigated the meteorological statistics of this TC relative to …

Rain-On-Snow Event Climatology And Hydrological Impacts In The Connecticut River Watershed, Samuel Davidson

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Rain-on-snow events, characterized by rain falling on existing snowpack, have the potential to bring about significant hydrological and environmental impacts including snowmelt, flooding, landslides, and other natural hazards. Despite prior evidence suggesting the Connecticut River Watershed has endured socioeconomic and environmental setbacks due to rain-on-snow events in the past, limited prior research has been performed on the role of rain-onsnow events within the region’s hydroclimatology. Gaining a deeper understanding of the occurrence and impacts of such events would provide valuable insights for risk and water resource managers. The purpose of this research was to create a climatology of rain-on-snow events …

Statistical Analysis Of Climate Trends And Variability In Tarrant County Using Annual, Decade, And Three-Decade Time Periods, Quinnton Debolt

Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses - Archive

This study is a statistical analysis of climate trends within the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex according to several time-scale models to understand how the climate for the locality has changed and to provide a basis for projections of what future climate might look like. Trends in mean temperature and precipitation for North Central Texas generally correlate with corresponding global trends linked to natural variability and anthropogenic-induced climate change. Temperature rises in this region annually by 0.08°C and by 0.22°C for a three-decade average. Seasonal increases in three-decadal averages of temperature for North Central Texas relative to the average of the reference …

Capturing High-Impact Weather In A Fine-Scale Climate Simulation Using The Model For Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (Mpas-A) V 7.0, James George Digilio Jr.

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

The research a long-term, high-resolution (15-km) global simulation using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 7.0, a community atmospheric modeling platform with unique capabilities for weather and climate research. This simulation spans 30 continuous years, covering water years 1990 through 2019 (i.e., 1 October 1989–30 September 2019) and is initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Sea surface temperatures and sea ice are prescribed and updated daily using the fine-scale (0.05°) Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA). To date, this is one of the few high-resolution MPAS-A simulations at …

Climate Change Effects On The 2022–2023 High Impact Series Of Atmospheric Rivers Along The United States West Coast, Hunter Martinez-Buehrer

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow bands of water vapor transport that are commonly associated with a low-level jet ahead of a cold front of an extratropical cyclone. When multiple ARs occur in succession of one another within a certain aggregation period, it is known as an AR family. ARs and AR families are important to the U.S. West Coast—and especially California’s—hydroclimate, providing both beneficial and hazardous precipitation to the region. Recent studies have suggested that not all ARs and, thus, AR families, respond similarly to a warming climate. Therefore, it is critical to better understand how climate change impacts …

Improving Understanding And Connections For Preparedness, Mitigation, Response, And Recovery For Tornado And Straight-Line Wind Events In Virginia: Summary Of The Inaugural Virginia Tornado And Straight-Line Wind Summit, Wie Yusuf, Monica Arul, Joshua Behr, Kaleen Lawsure, An Huy Pham, Henry Attivor

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Background

The Virginia Tornado and Straight-Line Wind Summit, the first of its kind in the Commonwealth, was held on October 15, 2025 in Isle of Wight County, Virginia. The Summit had several goals, including:

• Understanding Virginia’s wind risk and learning the science behind it.
• Hearing lessons learned from emergency managers who have experienced extreme wind events.
• Learning about practical steps to prepare, mitigate, and respond to severe wind events.
• Learning best practices for timely and actionable communication with the public before and after events.
• Strengthening interagency coordination and connecting with others to share resources, align priorities, and coordinate resilience planning. …

High-Altitude Balloon-Launched Uncrewed Aircraft System Measurements Of Atmospheric Turbulence And Qualitative Comparison With Infrasound Microphone Response, Anisa Haghighi

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

This study explores the use of a balloon-launched uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) to measure atmospheric turbulence in the troposphere and lower stratosphere using both wind velocity measurements and infrasonic acoustic energy. The UAS, a glider configured for autonomous descent along a predefined trajectory, had on board, in situ sensors to capture thermodynamic and kinematic atmospheric parameters. Additionally, it carried an infrasonic microphone to evaluate its potential for remotely detecting clear-air turbulence by capturing infrasonic waves. The system’s performance was assessed over the course of three test flights conducted in New Mexico, USA, in 2021. The descent enabled high-resolution profiling, with …

Comparing Surface Currents Near The Mouth Of Three Bays Along The U.S. East Coast: Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, And New York Bay, Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Monthly surface currents at 2 km resolution near the mouths of three U.S. east coast bays were obtained from high-frequency radars (Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar, CODAR) during 2012–2024. The currents near these bays, the Chesapeake Bay (CB), the Delaware Bay (DB) and the New York Bay (NB) were analyzed to infer similarity and differences, as well as potential common forcing from regional and basin-scale factors. The contribution to flow variability from local and remote forcing is evaluated by comparing surface currents with (a) river discharges into each bay, (b) with local and regional winds, and (c) with the North …

Spatiotemporal Evolution Of Surface Water Quality And Driving Factors Across Varying Levels Of Human Interference In A Major Subbasin Of The Yellow River Basin, China, Longmei Xie, Ruizhong Gao, Xixi Wang, Limin Duan, Lijing Fang, Hui Tong, Chang Yue, Tingxi Liu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Study region

The Dahei River Basin, a sub-basin of the Yellow River Basin, was selected for this study. Encompassing population centers and villages in Inner Mongolia, it supports vital ecosystems and underscores the need to address its unique challenges in water management and protection.

Study focus

This study examines surface water quality dynamics in the Dahei River Basin, a key aspect of sustainable water management. Predicting spatiotemporal variations and driving factors remains challenging. Using 2013–2023 datasets on water quality, hydrology, and meteorology, the composite pollution index (CPI), ANOVA, and generalized additive models were applied to provide insights for effective management. …

A Wall Of Smoke: Understanding The Drivers Of The June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Smoke Event For New York City, Gregory S. Randazzo

Dissertations and Theses

The 2023 Canadian wildfire season was notable for its extent and the dense smoke it produced. Motivated by the resulting air quality impacts in the New York City region, we explore how the total particulate matter output from the Quebec fires influenced PM2.5 concentrations downstream in New York City. Using injection height data from the Regional Advanced Baseline Imager + VIIRS Emissions dataset, we relate the tropospheric injection heights of the fires with the broader synoptic context and surface PM2.5 concentrations. Using data from the NYS Mesonet Profiler Network, radiosondes, and ERA5 reanalysis, we document the connection between an anomalous …

Understanding The Dynamical Mechanisms Governing Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Persistent Flow Regimes And Their Associated Extreme Weather Events, Tyler Christopher Leicht

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Weather regimes are characterized as patterns of low-frequency variability in the middle to upper troposphere of the extratropics. Weather regimes can also be linked to variations in surface weather, making the study of weather regimes a bridge between traditional synoptic-dynamic meteorology and subseasonal-to-seasonal variability. This dissertation identifies and categorizes persistent flow regimes (PFRs), analyzes the dynamics underpinning PFR formation, identifies the linkages to atmospheric teleconnections, and examines the occurrence of surface weather extremes before and during PFRs.

PFRs are identified from 1979–2022 and grouped into five clusters using k-means clustering, which then allows for time-lag composite analysis to determine the …

Limitations Of The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Gust Algorithm, Alex M. Glasser

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

ABSTRACT:

Accurate wind and gust forecasts are crucial in operational meteorology, yet there is a distinct gap in the literature regarding the verification of operational gust forecasts. In the present work, we assess the performance of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh's (HRRR) gust potential, verifying it against the Automated Surface Observing System's (ASOS) observed gusts across the Continental United States (CONUS). The HRRR gust's diurnal cycle reveals a significant underprediction of the gust during daylight hours and a slight overprediction of the gust during hours of darkness. The daytime underprediction undermines the assumption that forecasts represent a potential that tends to …

Convective Modes Associated With Precipitation Exceeding Postfire Debris Flow Thresholds In The Southwestern United States, Anya M. Aponte Torres

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Postfire debris flows can occur when surface-water runoff dislodges and carries a slurry of loose sediment and vegetation downslope, usually in steep, recently burned terrain. Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall embedded within short or long-duration rainstorms (e.g., thunderstorms and atmospheric rivers) is most commonly associated with this mode of debris-flow initiation. The typical horizontal grid spacings of global numerical weather prediction and general circulation models are too coarse to resolve these convective precipitation features, which poses an obstacle to short-term forecasting and investigating future trends in the frequency, magnitude, and characteristics of debris-flow generating rainfall. For this study, 15-minute precipitation and simulated …

Stratospheric Variability And Its Relationship To Cold Air Outbreaks In The United States, Paul T. Panhans

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Only since the early 2000s, has there been a growing body of work linking extreme winter temperature anomalies to the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). However, the understanding behind stratosphere-troposphere coupling and cold air outbreaks (CAOs) remain occasionally contradictory in the literature, making it difficult to properly articulate societal risks. Studies often focused on broad stratospheric influences, but this research directly compared stratospheric variability according to their respective tropospheric impacts. This dissertation filled a knowledge gap, as there has yet to be a comprehensive analysis to quantify the differences in stratospheric variability with and without CAOs …

Influence Of Cloud-Radiative Forcing On Tropical Cyclone Development In Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Jannetta C. Richardson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This research seeks to better understand how cloud–radiative forcing (CRF) influences the structural evolution and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) during the organizaional stage, with a particular focus on environments characterized by moderate vertical wind shear. While CRF has been shown to impact TC development during genesis and mature stages, its role during the transitional post-genesis phase—when TCs exhibit disorganized convection and are highly sensitive to environmental influences—remains poorly understood. Moreover, forecasting TC intensity in moderate shear environments continues to present substantial challenges, underscoring the need for focused investigation of TC development in the moderate-shear regime.

The Weather Research …

Using The High Resolution Rapid Refresh To Validate A Novel Forecast Methodology, Sylvia M. Garmong

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is frequently used by forecasters for short term predictions and although the model performs well in many metrics, previous study (Fovell and Gallagher 2020) identified temperature and windspeed biases within the boundary layer using radiosonde and surface observations. The current work uses a forecast drift metric to study how model forecasts evolve with time and distance to radiosonde sites. The metric is calculated by subtracting model analysis from forecasts at the same valid time, creating a proxy for bias. HRRR data on native model levels are obtained from the Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services …

Deep Convection, Lightning, And Inertio-Gravity Waves: An Analysis Of Precipitation And Wave Dynamics In The Congo Basin, Stephen L. Solimine

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The lack of an extensive in situ observation network throughout equatorial Africa makes it difficult to monitor the Congo climate system. Model and reanalysis products have been used to fill informational gaps but often produce disparate results. To improve model representation of deep convection over the Congo, it’s important to first understand the influence of various thermodynamic and dynamic forces that may be underrepresented. Although satellite based remote sensing retrievals and reanalysis have their own set of limitations, they can offer a great deal of insight into the climate of regions otherwise lacking in observational networks.

The first section of …

2024 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Extraordinary 21st Century Drought In The Po River Basin (Italy), Abel Andrés Ramírez Molina, Glenn Tootle, Giuseppe Formetta, Thomas Piechota, Jiaqi Gong

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Recent research identified 2022 as being the year of lowest seasonal April–May–June–July (AMJJ) observed streamflow for the Po River Basin (PRB) in the past two centuries. Expanding upon this research, we applied filters (2-year to 30-year filters) to the AMJJ observed streamflow and identified the late 20th and 21st century as displaying extreme drought. In this study, we introduce PALEO-RECON, an automated reconstruction tool developed to leverage tree ring-based proxies and streamline regression processes. Using PALEO-RECON, we reconstructed the AMJJ streamflow, applying traditional regression techniques and using a nested approach in which 30-, 40-, and 50-year windows within the ~200-year …