Meteorology Commons^™

A Wall Of Smoke: Understanding The Drivers Of The June 2023 Canadian Wildfire Smoke Event For New York City, Gregory S. Randazzo

Dissertations and Theses

The 2023 Canadian wildfire season was notable for its extent and the dense smoke it produced. Motivated by the resulting air quality impacts in the New York City region, we explore how the total particulate matter output from the Quebec fires influenced PM2.5 concentrations downstream in New York City. Using injection height data from the Regional Advanced Baseline Imager + VIIRS Emissions dataset, we relate the tropospheric injection heights of the fires with the broader synoptic context and surface PM2.5 concentrations. Using data from the NYS Mesonet Profiler Network, radiosondes, and ERA5 reanalysis, we document the connection between an anomalous …

Comparing Surface Currents Near The Mouth Of Three Bays Along The U.S. East Coast: Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, And New York Bay, Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Monthly surface currents at 2 km resolution near the mouths of three U.S. east coast bays were obtained from high-frequency radars (Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar, CODAR) during 2012–2024. The currents near these bays, the Chesapeake Bay (CB), the Delaware Bay (DB) and the New York Bay (NB) were analyzed to infer similarity and differences, as well as potential common forcing from regional and basin-scale factors. The contribution to flow variability from local and remote forcing is evaluated by comparing surface currents with (a) river discharges into each bay, (b) with local and regional winds, and (c) with the North …

Spatiotemporal Evolution Of Surface Water Quality And Driving Factors Across Varying Levels Of Human Interference In A Major Subbasin Of The Yellow River Basin, China, Longmei Xie, Ruizhong Gao, Xixi Wang, Limin Duan, Lijing Fang, Hui Tong, Chang Yue, Tingxi Liu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Study region

The Dahei River Basin, a sub-basin of the Yellow River Basin, was selected for this study. Encompassing population centers and villages in Inner Mongolia, it supports vital ecosystems and underscores the need to address its unique challenges in water management and protection.

Study focus

This study examines surface water quality dynamics in the Dahei River Basin, a key aspect of sustainable water management. Predicting spatiotemporal variations and driving factors remains challenging. Using 2013–2023 datasets on water quality, hydrology, and meteorology, the composite pollution index (CPI), ANOVA, and generalized additive models were applied to provide insights for effective management. …

Understanding The Dynamical Mechanisms Governing Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Persistent Flow Regimes And Their Associated Extreme Weather Events, Tyler Christopher Leicht

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Weather regimes are characterized as patterns of low-frequency variability in the middle to upper troposphere of the extratropics. Weather regimes can also be linked to variations in surface weather, making the study of weather regimes a bridge between traditional synoptic-dynamic meteorology and subseasonal-to-seasonal variability. This dissertation identifies and categorizes persistent flow regimes (PFRs), analyzes the dynamics underpinning PFR formation, identifies the linkages to atmospheric teleconnections, and examines the occurrence of surface weather extremes before and during PFRs.

PFRs are identified from 1979–2022 and grouped into five clusters using k-means clustering, which then allows for time-lag composite analysis to determine the …

Limitations Of The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Gust Algorithm, Alex M. Glasser

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

ABSTRACT:

Accurate wind and gust forecasts are crucial in operational meteorology, yet there is a distinct gap in the literature regarding the verification of operational gust forecasts. In the present work, we assess the performance of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh's (HRRR) gust potential, verifying it against the Automated Surface Observing System's (ASOS) observed gusts across the Continental United States (CONUS). The HRRR gust's diurnal cycle reveals a significant underprediction of the gust during daylight hours and a slight overprediction of the gust during hours of darkness. The daytime underprediction undermines the assumption that forecasts represent a potential that tends to …

Stratospheric Variability And Its Relationship To Cold Air Outbreaks In The United States, Paul T. Panhans

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Only since the early 2000s, has there been a growing body of work linking extreme winter temperature anomalies to the variability of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). However, the understanding behind stratosphere-troposphere coupling and cold air outbreaks (CAOs) remain occasionally contradictory in the literature, making it difficult to properly articulate societal risks. Studies often focused on broad stratospheric influences, but this research directly compared stratospheric variability according to their respective tropospheric impacts. This dissertation filled a knowledge gap, as there has yet to be a comprehensive analysis to quantify the differences in stratospheric variability with and without CAOs …

Using The High Resolution Rapid Refresh To Validate A Novel Forecast Methodology, Sylvia M. Garmong

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is frequently used by forecasters for short term predictions and although the model performs well in many metrics, previous study (Fovell and Gallagher 2020) identified temperature and windspeed biases within the boundary layer using radiosonde and surface observations. The current work uses a forecast drift metric to study how model forecasts evolve with time and distance to radiosonde sites. The metric is calculated by subtracting model analysis from forecasts at the same valid time, creating a proxy for bias. HRRR data on native model levels are obtained from the Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services …

Convective Modes Associated With Precipitation Exceeding Postfire Debris Flow Thresholds In The Southwestern United States, Anya M. Aponte Torres

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Postfire debris flows can occur when surface-water runoff dislodges and carries a slurry of loose sediment and vegetation downslope, usually in steep, recently burned terrain. Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall embedded within short or long-duration rainstorms (e.g., thunderstorms and atmospheric rivers) is most commonly associated with this mode of debris-flow initiation. The typical horizontal grid spacings of global numerical weather prediction and general circulation models are too coarse to resolve these convective precipitation features, which poses an obstacle to short-term forecasting and investigating future trends in the frequency, magnitude, and characteristics of debris-flow generating rainfall. For this study, 15-minute precipitation and simulated …

Influence Of Cloud-Radiative Forcing On Tropical Cyclone Development In Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Jannetta C. Richardson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This research seeks to better understand how cloud–radiative forcing (CRF) influences the structural evolution and intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) during the organizaional stage, with a particular focus on environments characterized by moderate vertical wind shear. While CRF has been shown to impact TC development during genesis and mature stages, its role during the transitional post-genesis phase—when TCs exhibit disorganized convection and are highly sensitive to environmental influences—remains poorly understood. Moreover, forecasting TC intensity in moderate shear environments continues to present substantial challenges, underscoring the need for focused investigation of TC development in the moderate-shear regime.

The Weather Research …

Deep Convection, Lightning, And Inertio-Gravity Waves: An Analysis Of Precipitation And Wave Dynamics In The Congo Basin, Stephen L. Solimine

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The lack of an extensive in situ observation network throughout equatorial Africa makes it difficult to monitor the Congo climate system. Model and reanalysis products have been used to fill informational gaps but often produce disparate results. To improve model representation of deep convection over the Congo, it’s important to first understand the influence of various thermodynamic and dynamic forces that may be underrepresented. Although satellite based remote sensing retrievals and reanalysis have their own set of limitations, they can offer a great deal of insight into the climate of regions otherwise lacking in observational networks.

The first section of …

2024 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Extraordinary 21st Century Drought In The Po River Basin (Italy), Abel Andrés Ramírez Molina, Glenn Tootle, Giuseppe Formetta, Thomas Piechota, Jiaqi Gong

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Recent research identified 2022 as being the year of lowest seasonal April–May–June–July (AMJJ) observed streamflow for the Po River Basin (PRB) in the past two centuries. Expanding upon this research, we applied filters (2-year to 30-year filters) to the AMJJ observed streamflow and identified the late 20th and 21st century as displaying extreme drought. In this study, we introduce PALEO-RECON, an automated reconstruction tool developed to leverage tree ring-based proxies and streamline regression processes. Using PALEO-RECON, we reconstructed the AMJJ streamflow, applying traditional regression techniques and using a nested approach in which 30-, 40-, and 50-year windows within the ~200-year …

Validating Atmospheric Freezing Level Heights Using Purdue University Weather Balloon Data, Danielle Harr

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

A Meteorological Investigation Of A Tornado- Producing, “Hybrid” Supercell-Multicell Storm Near Delphi, Indiana, On May 8, 2023, Evelyn Rose K. Girardi

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Advancing S2s Precipitation Outlooks Through The Weather Regime-Gaussian Mixture Model Framework, Wei Zhang

Funded Research Records

No abstract provided.

2024 December - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

December was relatively warm and wet for West Tennessee, while areas further east were closer to average. The main weather and climate stories of December 2024 included the strong blast of cold air early in the month that led to widespread light snowfall and record cold temperatures from December 3-6, and two cold fronts that brought strong thunderstorms, localized flash flooding, some small hail, and strong winds to the state on December 18 and December 28-29. Heavy rains on the 29th led to flash flooding and closure of roads and temporary bridges in parts of Carter County that …

Modeling Hourly Storm Surges Using Deep Learning Techniques, Md Abu Zafor

Master's Theses

Storm surges cause coastal flooding, one of the most devastating coastal hazards. Accurate modeling of storm surges is essential for predicting and mitigating these impacts. Traditional approaches model surges at individual tide gauges and often focus on daily time scales, leading to data redundancy and limiting their ability to capture sub-daily variability. This study addresses these limitations using deep learning (DL) algorithms to model hourly surges simultaneously at multiple tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Three algorithms, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and a hybrid ConvLSTM are employed to model surges using …

Local Rural Knowledge And Early Childhood Informal Science Education In Rural Nebraska, Sarah Michelle Paulos

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

This study aims to discover the existing experiences that lead to local rural knowledge (LRK) of specific rural Northeast Nebraska communities. This information will assist in understanding the impact that LRK has on young children’s science knowledge in rural communities. By engaging in hands-on experiences and interactions, science learning goals for children may be achieved and developed through science outreach programs. During Phase 1 of this study, adults in the selected rural communities participated in an online survey indicating their knowledge of various common rural phrases with the option to share personal stories of experiences and family history. This information …

Spatial Gap-Filling Of Himawari-8 Hourly Aod Products Using Machine Learning With Model-Based Aod And Meteorological Data: A Focus On The Korean Peninsula, Youjeong Youn, Seoyeon Kim, Seung Hee Kim, Yangwon Lee

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Given the complex spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, high-frequency satellite observations are essential for accurately mapping their distribution. However, optical remote sensing encounters difficulties in detecting Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over cloud-covered regions, creating data gaps that limit comprehensive environmental analysis. This study introduces a spatial gap-filling method for Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) hourly AOD data, using a Random Forest (RF) model that integrates meteorological variables and model-based AOD data. Developed and validated over South Korea from 1 January to 31 December 2019, the model effectively improved data coverage from 6% to 100%. The approach demonstrated high performance in blind tests, …

Hurricane Evacuation: Navigating Uncertainty During Covid 19 And With Existing Communication Scales, And Considering Public And Expert Perception Of Alternative Scales, Leilani D. Paxton

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the effectiveness of current hurricane warning products and communication strategies, exploring factors influencing public perception of risk and decision-making during evacuations. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining survey data, focus group discussions, and interviews with meteorologists and emergency managers. The first paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hurricane risk perception and evacuation decisions. Findings indicate that while COVID-19 concerns played a role in some individuals' decisions, particularly those with pets or concerns about shelter conditions, the majority of participants evacuated for Hurricane Ian. The study highlights the importance of providing clear, consistent, and …