Meteorology Commons^™

A Diagnostic Metric For Predicting Tropical Cyclone And Mid-Latitude Floods, Jonathon Klepatzki, Shawn M. Milrad

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

This study details a dynamic and thermodynamic metric (i.e., Extreme Flood Index [EFI]) designed to diagnose the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events associated with stagnant mid-latitude flow patterns (i.e., Rex blocks). As the global climate warms, rapid Arctic warming may be helping to slow the mid-latitude westerly jet stream, resulting in increased mid-latitude flow stagnation. The combination of long-duration ascent associated with easterly winds and warm moist air increases the severity of extreme precipitation events; as such, the EFI is specifically designed to detect this potent combination of ingredients. In 2013, a Rex block stalled a low-pressure system …

Development Of The Wrf-Co2 4d-Var Assimilation System V1.0, Tao Zheng, Nancy H. F. French, Martin Baxter

Michigan Tech Publications, Part 1

Regional atmospheric CO2 inversions commonly use Lagrangian particle trajectory model simulations to calculate the required influence function, which quantifies the sensitivity of a receptor to flux sources. In this paper, an adjoint-based four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation system, WRF-CO2 4D-Var, is developed to provide an alternative approach. This system is developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system, including the system coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem), with tangent linear and adjoint codes (WRFPLUS), and with data assimilation (WRFDA), all in version 3.6. In WRF-CO2 4D-Var, CO2 is modeled as a tracer and its feedback to meteorology is ignored. This …

2018 May - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

How College Campuses Are Using Social Media During Severe Weather Events, Emmale Davis

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study explores how college campuses are using social media during severe weather events. This topic surfaced after a tornado devastated Moore, Oklahoma in May 2013 and those displaced flocked to the University of Oklahoma campus after a post made on Twitter went viral prior to an official message being sent out by the university. In order to further explore this topic, a qualitative phenomenological case study was conducted at the following sites: University of Alabama, Missouri Southern State University, University of Oklahoma, and Florida State University. This study included observations of social media posts on Facebook and Twitter on …

Gis Modeling Of The Prominent Geohazards In Arkansas, Kyle Walker Rowden

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The State of Arkansas is prone to numerous geohazards. This thesis is a twofold study of prominent geohazards in Arkansas: the first fold includes a novel triggerless approach for mass wasting susceptibility modeling applied to the Boston Mountains in NW Arkansas, and the second fold is a GIS-based regression modeling of the extreme weather patterns at the state level. Each study fold is presented in this thesis as a separate chapter embracing a published peer-reviewed paper. In the first paper, I have used the analytical hierarchy process to assign preliminary statistical weights to the most cogent variables influencing mass wasting …

An Analysis Of Urban Heat Islands In Kentucky, Logan Mitchell

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The purpose of this research is to increase understanding of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in Kentucky by studying its three largest cities: Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green. By examining the UHIs of these three cities, two major attributes can be determined: if there is a relationship between the size of the city by population and the UHI magnitude, and if UHI magnitude follows any diurnal and/or seasonal cycles. Data was collected from weather stations within the three major cities, as well as from weather stations located in the rural areas surrounding them. The length of the time series …

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

Mathematics Of The Significant Tornado Parameter, Aaron Baker

Undergraduate Research Conference

The idea of this project came from my curiosity of weather and especially how severe storms are predicted. There are many parameters used to predict severe weather that use mathematical formulas. After sorting through the parameters, the STP was the one selected due to its use of other parameters for prediction of tornadoes, as well as concepts used in Single and Multi-Variable Calculus, such as areas between curves and vector magnitude and direction, and learning how to use new graphs than what is normally used.

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

2018 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change

Introduction To Weather And Climate (Vsu), Jason Allard, Weimin Feng

Geological Sciences and Geography Grants Collections

This Grants Collection for Introduction to Weather and Climate was created under a Round Seven ALG Textbook Transformation Grant.

Affordable Learning Georgia Grants Collections are intended to provide faculty with the frameworks to quickly implement or revise the same materials as a Textbook Transformation Grants team, along with the aims and lessons learned from project teams during the implementation process.

Documents are in .pdf format, with a separate .docx (Word) version available for download. Each collection contains the following materials:

• Linked Syllabus
• Initial Proposal
• Final Report

Concorde Meteorological Analysis (Cma) - Data Guide, Patrick Fitzpatrick, Yee H. Lau

Faculty Publications

CONCORDE is the CONsortium for oil spill exposure pathways in COastal River-Dominated Ecosystems (CONCORDE), and is an interdisciplinary research program funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) to conduct scientific studies of the impacts of oil, dispersed oil and dispersant on the Gulf’s ecosystem (Greer et al. 2018). A CONCORDE goal is to implement a synthesis model containing circulation and biogeochemistry components of the Northern Gulf of Mexico shelf system which can ultimately aid in prediction of oil spill transport and impacts.

The CONCORDE Meteorological Analysis (CMA) is an hourly gridded NetCDF dataset which provides atmospheric forcing for …

A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger

Theses and Dissertations

Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …

Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins

Theses and Dissertations

Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …

The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza

Theses and Dissertations

Strong winds from downbursts pose a significant hazard to personnel and launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The CCAFS/KSC complex has a robust mesonet from which an 18 year (1995-2012) warm-season convective wind climatology (WSCWC) was developed (Koermer 2017). While the frequency of downbursts in the area has been determined, the frequency at the individual tower locations has not. The 5-minute peak wind data from the WSCWC was analyzed to determine the geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida. For this project a downburst was determined by the threshold of …

Reconstructing Historical Hurricane Tracks In The Atlantic Basin: Three Case Studies From The 1840s, Emily L. Cerrito

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Analyzing past tropical cyclone activity enables researchers to recognize patterns of hurricane variability, estimate hurricane return periods, and assess local risk to future storms. This paleotempestology study used original primary data to make the historical record as comprehensive and accurate as possible for three major hurricanes: October 1844, October 1846, and September 1848. This thesis presents the reconstructed storm tracks, assesses the societal impacts, and evaluates the storm intensity of these three major hurricanes for the eastern U.S. and Cuba. The data utilized in this study include ship logbooks, newspapers, diaries, and instrumental meteorological records. A geographic information system (GIS) …

Ceilometer Measurements From The University Of Western Ontario Of Smoke From The Extraordinary Fires Of 2017 In Western Canada, Achini J K Abayakoon Ms.

Western Research Forum

Background:

The summer of 2017 saw many fires in Western Canada. Smoke from these fires was transported by winds over to London and was measured using a Lufft CHM15k ceilometer which was installed at the Cronyn Observatory of The University of Western Ontario.

Methods:

The cloud base height can be calculated by the time taken for the backscatter signal to reach the transmitter while the backscatter effects can be used to determine the atmospheric structure using the principle of light detection and ranging (LiDAR).

Results:

Smoke particle concentrations over London, Ontario were observed within 72 hours of the fires taking …

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Estimation Of Pm2.5 In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Modis Aod And Meteorological Data Using The Back Propagation Neural Network, Xialing Ni, Chunxiang Cao, Yuke Zhou, Xianghui Cui, Ramesh Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

With the economic growth and increasing urbanization in the last three decades, the air quality over China has continuously degraded, which poses a great threat to human health. The concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly affects the mortality of people living in the polluted areas where air quality is poor. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the well organized urban regions in northern China, has suffered with poor air quality and atmospheric pollution due to recent growth of the industrial sector and vehicle emissions. In the present study, we used the back propagation neural network model approach to estimate …

Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, Sam Lashley

Purdue Road School

The National Weather Service is working with core partners to build a Weather Ready Nation for present and future generations by taking advanced action against the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation and flooding. One way in which this can be accomplished is by studying trends in historical weather data and applying what we learn to future mitigation efforts. The goal is to gain a better understanding of the magnitude and impacts that future extreme precipitation events may have on local infrastructure.

This presentation will review extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred across Indiana along …