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Droughtscape, Winter 2019, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018

Drought impact summary 2018

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought

Upcoming events

A New Model For Lifting Condensation Levels Estimation, Nihad E. Daidzic Ph.D., Sc.D.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Knowledge of and the ability to predict lifting condensation levels (LCL) is important ingredient in weather predictions, cloud formation, planetary albedo and Earth’s energy balance. It is also essential topic in aviation safety and flight operations. In this article, we derive a new model of LCL and compare it to some older commonly-used models. This includes also the recently published Romps’ (2017) model. The new model presented here includes dependence, however weak, of the surface atmospheric pressure and the specific humidity on the LCL height and temperature. Such is not the case with widely used models and expressions by Espy …

An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Rafael Uryayev

Dissertations and Theses

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the most common weather phenomena affecting the United States, Canada, and Europe. They can pose serious hazards over large swaths of area. In this thesis, a statistical model of ETCs, called SynthETC, is discussed. The model accounts for the for genesis, track path, termination, and intensity of statistically generated ETCs. Genesis is modeled as a Poisson process, whose mean is determined by climate and historical information. Tracks are modeled as a regression-mean determined by climate and historical information plus a stochastic component. Lysis is modeled using logistic regression, with climate states as covariates. Intensity is modeled …

Hydroclimate Drivers And Atmospheric Dynamics Of Floods, Nasser Najibi

Dissertations and Theses

Our preliminary survey showed that most of the recent flood-related studies did not formally explain the physical mechanisms of long-duration and large-peak flood events that can evoke substantial damages to properties and infrastructure systems. These studies also fell short of fully assessing the interactions of coupled ocean-atmosphere and land dynamics which are capable of forcing substantial changes to the flood attributes by governing the exceeding surface flow regimes and moisture source-sink relationships at the spatiotemporal scales important for risk management. This dissertation advances the understanding of the variability in flood duration, peak, volume, and timing at the regional to the …

A Climatology Of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems In The U.S., Jacob Adam Strohm

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Quasi-linear convective systems, or QLCSs, are a common, organized thunderstorm mode in the U.S. Over the last fifty years, severe weather research has focused on the supercell, but, recently, QLCSs have become an increasingly important area of study. Researchers and operational meteorologists realize that this morphology is difficult to forecast and may be responsible for a large proportion of the severe weather reports in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. This study seeks to determine the degree to which QLCSs threaten humans and their assets by, first, assessing their climatology and, second, measuring their contribution to the severe report record. …

Adding Value To Numerical Weather Predictions For The Aviation Industry In South Africa., Quinton Jacobs Mr., Willem A. Landman Prof.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

The main objective of this study is to determine whether human forecasters at the main airports of South Africa add value to the raw numerical weather prediction model output when they provide forecast services to the aviation industry. Dataset pairs of weather observations made at these airports and terminal aerodrome forecasts are constructed for three forecast systems: the human forecasters, persistence forecast and the raw output from the 12 km resolution Unified Model administered by the South African Weather Service. These three dataset pairs are independently evaluated by a forecast verification system developed at the South African Weather Service. A …

On Atmospheric Lapse Rates, Nihad E. Daidzic

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

We have derived and summarized and most important atmospheric temperature lapse rates. ALRs essentially govern vertical atmospheric air stability and creation of some cloud types. The sensitivity analysis of various atmospheric lapse rates and their dependence on actual ideal-gas air properties and gravitational attraction was conducted for the first time to the best of our knowledge. SALR, which has DALR as the upper asymptote, showed steepest decrease at around 9 degrees Celsius then flattening out and apparently approaching another asymptotic solution which has not been investigated as it falls outside of the terrestrial temperature range. ISA lapse rates are adopted …

Spatial And Temporal Analysis Of The 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak In Central Alabama, Whitney Flynn, Tanveer Islam

Research, Publications & Creative Work

This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak in Central Alabama. Disasters, and vulnerabilities to such events, vary across space and time. The 2011 Super Outbreak was the largest, most costly, and one of the most deadly tornado outbreaks ever recorded in U.S. history. In this study, the results of 29 documented tornado tracks (889 data points total) in Central Alabama reveal findings related to complex topography and its effects on tornado intensity. The temporal pattern s of this particular outbreak are - consistent with other studies’ evidence that suggests a small peak …

Coupling Between Land–Ocean–Atmosphere And Pronounced Changes In Atmospheric/Meteorological Parameters Associated With The Hudhud Cyclone Of October 2014, Akshansa Chauhan, Rajesh Kumar, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

India is vulnerable to all kinds of natural hazards associated with land, ocean, biosphere, atmosphere, and snow/glaciers. These natural hazards impact large areas and the population living in the affected regions. India is surrounded by ocean on three sides and is vulnerable to cyclonic activities. Every year cyclones hit the east and west coasts of India, affecting the population living along the coasts and infrastructure and inland areas. The extent of the affected inland areas depends on the intensity of the cyclone. On 12 October 2014, a strong cyclone “Hudhud” hit the east coast of India that caused a high …

Analysis Of Land Surface Temperature Over Urban Landcover Types Using Satellite Remote Sensing And Ground-Based Applications, Makini Valentine, Justine Ginchereau

Publications and Research

Urban areas have discrete differences in their land surface temperatures (LST) compared to rural areas. These regions are covered with impermeable materials with less vegetation and moisture. Consequently, this phenomenon causes major thermal intensities of different land surfaces, negatively impact people and environment. The objective of this project is to examine and to compare land surface temperature obtained from in-situ data and satellite-based observations in order to understand the diurnal variation and heat transfer at each surface type. The study utilizes series of hand held thermal infrared cameras and one Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) infrared camera to find land surface …

Characterizing Temperature Variability States Across Southern South America And Associated Synoptic-Scale Meteorological Patterns, Judah Adam Detzer

Dissertations and Theses

The aim of this thesis is to understand spatiotemporal temperature variability in southern South America by identifying overarching temperature variability states and their associated synoptic-scale meteorological patterns. Further, the temporal frequency of occurrence of those temperature variability states is investigated as is the role of recurrent low-frequency modes of climate variability (El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode) on temperature variability. K-means cluster analysis is used to group all months during the period 1980-2015 into four primary categories for summer and winter separately. Monthly maps of temperature anomalies are provided as input to the k-means algorithm and the …

2018 December - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Umphlett Qci Dec 2018, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Water Resources and Drought

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Wind-Driven Setup, Roughness, And Drag Over A Depth- And Fetch-Limited Coastal Estuary, Jeffrey Allen Colvin

Theses and Dissertations

The understanding of the momentum exchange across the air-sea interface is critical to accurately model and forecast wind speed, wave properties, setup, and circulation. This is particularly true for a restricted estuary, such as the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), where wind is the driving force behind water movement due to the limited number of direct ocean connections. Current atmospheric and hydrodynamic models use formulations of the drag coefficient and/or roughness length based on open ocean studies in which wave properties are not considered. This dissertation develops two parameterizations – one for wind setup and one for the drag coefficient – …

Retinex-Based Visibility Enhancement System For Inclement Weather With Tracking And Distance Estimation Capabilities, Marwan S. Alluhaidan

Dissertations

Road conditions affected by weather are well known to have an impact on the number of vehicle accidents and fatalities, due to low- to no-visibility conditions. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, there are more than 1,259,000 crashes each year. On average, 6,000 people are killed and more than 445,000 people are injured annually due to severe weather conditions. These accidents could be significantly reduced if real-time visibility enhancement systems were made available. However, eliminating the impact of weather conditions on visibility is still lacking and beyond our control. The time has come to develop technology that is capable …

Calibration Of The Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (Vcsel) Water Vapor Hydrometer, Minghui Diao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

No abstract provided.

Evolution Of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections, Andra J. Garner, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T, Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton

School of Earth & Environment Departmental Research

The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections …

Impacts Of Pacific Ssts On Atmospheric Circulations Leading To California Winter Precipitation Variability: A Diagnostic Modeling, Boksoon Myoung, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

One of the primary meteorological causes of the winter precipitation deficits and droughts in California (CA) is anomalous developments and maintenance of upper-tropospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific. In order to understand and find the key factors controlling the winter precipitation variability in CA, the present study examines two dominant atmospheric modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere using an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and their associated large-scale circulation patterns for the last 41 winters (1974/75–2014/15). Explaining 17.5% of variability, the second mode (EOF2) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulations in the North Pacific and cyclonic circulations in …

Pulsed Fiber Optics Lasers As Highly Sensitive Sensors, Hanieh Afkhamiardakani

Shared Knowledge Conference

An interferometer or resonator is a device in which optical beams of specific frequencies circulate with minimal losses. These losses are completely compensated by the gain inside a laser resonator. A small perturbation introduced inside the laser can affect its frequency, which in turns becomes a metric of that perturbation. The perturbation is usually caused by an electric or magnetic field, rotation, acceleration, nonlinear index of refraction etc. Tiny changes of optical frequency are monitored by superimposing the laser field and a reference field (from the same laser) on a detector. This technique requires creating a laser in which two …

The Nebraska Mesonet: Technical Overview Of An Automated State Weather Network, Martha Shulski, Stonie Cooper, Glen Roebke, Allen L. Dutcher

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Nebraska Mesonet was established in 1981 as one of the nation’s first automated state weather networks. ‘‘Automated’’ is defined by the nature of the observations being made and recorded by machine, as opposed to observations made and recorded manually. At the time of inception, the five observing locations were geared toward servicing agricultural production applications. The Nebraska Mesonet has grown to 69 stations (as of 2018) and is now a multipurpose environmental observing network under the Nebraska State Climate Office (NSCO). The network is composed of environmental observation stations, sited using best practices for mesoscale and microscale environment situations. …