Meteorology Commons^™

2018 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in …

Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …

Caves As Observatories For Atmospheric Thermal Tides: An Example From Ascunsă Cave, Romania, Virgil Drăgușin, Laura Tîrlă, Nicoleta Cadicheanu, Vasile Ersek, Ionuț Mirea

International Journal of Speleology

As part of a microclimate study at Ascunsă Cave, Romania, we used Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data loggers to record cave air temperature variability. At one of the monitoring points we recognized the presence of semidiurnal cycles on the order of a few thousands of a degree Celsius that could be produced under the influence of the semidiurnal tidal components of the Sun (S₂) or the Moon (M₂). Using a Gemini Tinytag Plus 2 data logger with an external probe we measured core rock temperature and showed that it does not influence the cave air temperature …

The O2/N2 Ratio And Co2 Airborne Southern Ocean Study, Britton Stephens, Matthew Long, Ralph Keeling, Eric Kort, Colm Sweeney, Eric Apel, Elliot Atlas, Stuart Beaton, Jonathan Bent, Nicola Blake, James Bresch, Joanna Casey, Bruce Daube, Minghui Diao, Ernesto Diaz, Heidi Dierssen, Valeria Donets, Bo-Cai Gao, Michelle Gierach, Robert Green, Justin Haag, Matthew Hayman, Alan Hills, Martín Hoecker-Martínez, Shawn Honomichl, Rebecca Hornbrook, Jorgen Jensen, Rong-Rong Li, Ian Mccubbin, Kathryn Mckain, Eric Morgan, Scott Nolte, Jordan Powers, Bryan Rainwater, Kaylan Randolph, Mike Reeves, Sue Schauffler, Katherine Smith, Mackenzie Smith, Jeff Stith, Gregory Stossmeister, Darin Toohey, Andrew Watt

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by mediating atmosphere–ocean partitioning of heat and carbon dioxide. However, Earth system models are demonstrably deficient in the Southern Ocean, leading to large uncertainties in future air–sea CO2 flux projections under climate warming and incomplete interpretations of natural variability on interannual to geologic time scales. Here, we describe a recent aircraft observational campaign, the O2/N2 Ratio and CO2 Airborne Southern Ocean (ORCAS) study, which collected measurements over the Southern Ocean during January and February 2016. The primary research objective of the ORCAS campaign was to improve observational constraints …

2018 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Hurricane Fred (2015): Cape Verde's First Hurricane In Modern Times: Observations, Impacts, And Lessons Learned, Gregory Jenkins, Ester Brito, Emanuel Soares, Sen Chiao, Jose Lima, Benvendo Tavares, Angelo Cardoso, Francisco Evora, Maria Monteiro

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

During 31 August 2015, Hurricane Fred traversed through the Cape Verde islands, passing near Boa Vista and possibly making landfall over São Nicolau during the evening hours. Hurricane Fred was a category 1 storm with maximum winds of 75 kt and a sea level pressure of 986 hPa during 31 August. The African easterly wave associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Fred emerged from Guinea on 29 August and was named Tropical Storm Fred on 30 August. Prior to impacting Cape Verde, the storm caused the sinking of a ship and the loss of seven lives off the coast of Guinea-Bissau …

2018 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

The Influence Of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections On The Geography Of Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Nicholas Ray Adkins

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

The research in this thesis used statistical and spatial analysis methods to test the influence of six Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on the latitude and longitude components of tropical cyclogenesis occurring in the eastern and western North Pacific Ocean basins for the period 1979-2016. The Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnection patterns were examined independently and in combination for association with variations in cyclogenesis geography. Four of the six teleconnection patterns were found to exert an influence on cyclogenesis latitude and/or longitude in …

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape, Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado

Drought and water crisis book updated

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs

New staff at the NDMC

Drought Summit in photos

The General Aviation Pilot Preflight Weather Planning: Weather Products Usability & Limitations, Jayde King, Yolanda Ortiz, Nicholas Defilippis, Thomas A. Guinn, Beth Blickensderfer, Thomas Robert

General Aviation Weather Display Interpretation

Over the last 30 years, a large percentage of weather-related aviation accidents have occurred under General Aviation (GA) operations (FAA, 2010; Fultz & Ashley, 2016; AOPA, 2008).

• Novice Private Pilots VFR into IMC
• High Risk For Incurring Fatality

Aviation Weather Challenges

1. Difficult to interpret Aviation Weather Products
2. Pilot's Decision Making Biases and Errors
3. GA Pilots' Lack of Aviation Weather Experience

Spatial Patterns In Lightning Flashes Centered On Tornadoes, Alexander Ziemecki

Summer Community of Scholars Posters (RCEU and HCR Combined Programs)

No abstract provided.

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification In Environments Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs : Environmental Influences And Convective Characteristics, Michael Fischer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid …

The Upper-Level Turbulence, Static Stability And Tropopause Structure Of Tropical Cyclones, Patrick Duran

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Upper-tropospheric thermodynamic processes can play an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) structure and evolution. Despite its importance, until recently few in-situ observations were available in the upper levels of TCs. Two recent field campaigns -- the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment -- provided a wealth of high-altitude observations within TCs. These observations revealed that the upper-level static stability and tropopause structure of TCs can change dramatically with both space and time.

Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

African easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer. Many studies have used observations and idealized models to highlight processes associated with the movement and growth of AEWs, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for these phenomena. Here, the predictability of AEWs in ECMWF EPS forecasts is assessed during two periods of enhanced AEW activity (July--September 2007--2009 and 2011--2013). Specifically, AEW predictability is analyzed through three main areas of focus: 1) verifying AEW position and intensity forecasts, and assessing their relation to convective …

Impact Of Past Experiences With Tornadoes On Future Decisions In Nebraska, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE: Research Products

The National Weather Service (NWS) advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is to determine how the number of sources and what …

Mls Measurements Of Stratospheric Hydrogen Cyanide During The 2015-2016 El Niño Event, Hugh C. Pumphrey, Norbert Glatthor, Peter F. Bernath, Christopher D. Boone, James W. Hannigan, Ivan Ortega, Nathaniel J. Livesey, William G. Read

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

It is known from ground-based measurements made during the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Niño events that atmospheric hydrogen cyanide (HCN) tends to be higher during such years than at other times. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite has been measuring HCN mixing ratios since launch in 2004; the measurements are ongoing at the time of writing. The winter of 2015- 2016 saw the largest El Niño event since 1997-1998. We present MLS measurements of HCN in the lower stratosphere for the Aura mission to date, comparing the 2015- 2016 El Niño period to the rest of the …

Quantitative Examination And Comparison Of Altimetry Rules-Of-Thumb For General Aviation, Thomas A. Guinn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

General aviation rules of thumb (ROTs) for density altitude and true altitude are examined and developed. Both ROTs originate from the same basic principle of hydrostatic balance, but differ significantly in the assumptions made regarding the atmospheric temperature profile. While the ROT for DA assumes a standard atmospheric vertical temperature lapse rate, the ROT for true altitude requires information regarding the observed layer-mean temperature of the atmosphere. Since the layer-mean temperature between the aircraft and the surface is typically unknown, it must be inferred from the temperature at a single level by again assuming a linear lapse rate. This method …