Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

The Impact Of Madden-Julian Oscillation On Rainfall Variability In South Sulawesi And Its Implications For Science Education, Misbahuddin Mansur, Pariabti Palloan, Agus Susanto

Jurnal Pendidikan Sains

This study examined the relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall variability in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, using daily rainfall observations from 24 stations during 1990–2020. A quantitative observational design based on long-term climatological time-series analysis was employed. MJO activity was identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, while rainfall variability was analyzed through rainfall anomalies, rainfall frequency, and spatial patterns across Seasonal Zones (ZOM). The results indicate that active MJO phases were generally associated with wetter conditions and higher rainfall frequency, whereas suppressed phases corresponded to drier conditions. Rainfall responses varied considerably among regions, with coastal areas …

A Statistical Analysis Of Current And Future Hurricane Activity In The North Indian Ocean, Basil Lund

2026 Symposium

A hurricane is defined as a tropical storm with winds sustained at 74 mph or greater. I examined major (category 3 and above) hurricane activity over the North Indian Ocean from the years 1972-2019 as reported by Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Archive. Using RStudio, I conducted a binomial analysis of the CSU dataset to calculate probabilities of zero to ten years with one or more major North Indian Ocean hurricanes in the next decade. I conducted a geometric analysis to determine probabilities associated with waiting periods for the next year with a major hurricane, as well as a Poisson …

Evapotranspiration Everywhere, All The Time: Towards A Unified View From Earth Observation, Joshua B. Fisher, Martha C. Anderson, Diego G. Miralles, Kanishka Mallick, Paul C. Stoy, Youngryel Ryu, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Scientists want to know everything, everywhere, and all the time. This is particularly true in Earth science, where we seek to understand processes that span from the molecular to the planetary scale in how the world works, how it affects us, and how we impact it—especially the water cycle. Evapotranspiration (ET) was the last component to be measured in closing the water cycle: for decades, closing the water budget meant adding up all the measurable components, then inferring ET as the residual. Early measurements relied on water loss from pans and weighing lysimeters, followed by sensors inserted into plants to …

Atmospheric Remote Sensing Using X-Band Radar In The Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer, Daniel P. Greenway

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric remote sensors have always offered promising technological advancements for measuring atmospheric properties over large spatial areas at high spatiotemporal resolution – a feat not currently possible with present atmospheric measurement technologies. However, remote sensors do not measure these atmospheric properties directly; they rely on robust calibrations or conversions, complex mathematical inversion methods, and/or machine learning to retrieve these properties. These inverse methods rely on the selection of an objective function, a machine learning technique, and an accurate parameterization for atmospheric property estimation. By leveraging inverse methods to improve the characterization of properties measured by remote sensors, this work enables …

An Analysis Of The Rapid Intensification Of Hurricane Milton, Ayden Rodriguez, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Hurricane Milton (October 2024) provides a compelling case study of a multiscale pathway to rapid intensification (RI), highlighting the alignment of synoptic preconditioning, favorable environmental conditions, and rapid inner-core structural evolution. The storm originated from the interaction of multiple tropical waves embedded within a low-level trough associated with the Central American Gyre, which enhanced low-level vorticity and moisture convergence prior to development. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Milton encountered an environment characterized by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and weak vertical wind shear, enabling steady intensification and the onset of explosive RI that exceeded conventional …

Examining Extremes: A Comparison Between Machine Learning Based Southwestern Conus Seasonal Drought And High Fire Risk Event Synoptic Climatologies, Ethan M. Greenberg

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Southwestern United States (SW CONUS), comprised of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, is a vast region that tens of millions of people call home. Hosting ecosystems ranging from grasslands and shrublands to temperate forests and climate zones ranging from Mediterranean climates to arid deserts, the region is nearly unanimously prone to intense droughts and devastating wildfires. While fire weather conditions and drought are often studied separately or mentioned as background conditions for the other, there are relatively few studies that compare the typical meteorological conditions between the two. This study aims to more closely understand the meteorological relationship between …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Differential Reflectivity (Zdr) Columns Due To Environment In Tornadic And Nontornadic Supercells, Adrianne J. Engel

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Polarimetric signatures have been of interest to researchers and operational forecasters since the completion of the WSR-88D network upgrade in 2013. Differential reflectivity (Z_DR) columns, which are collocated with supercell updrafts, are the focus of this study. Microphysical distributions within these signatures can be used to infer updraft strength and elucidate the processes responsible for updraft intensity and evolution. Z_DR column depth, areal extent, and variability of these metrics through space and time are assessed in a dataset of 114 nontornadic and tornadic supercells. Means of column metrics in nontornadic, non-tornado-producing, and tornado-producing analysis times are evaluated …

Clear-Air Turbulence Climatology And Trends, Liam Rodgers, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Clear‑air turbulence (CAT) is a major aviation hazard that occurs near airline cruising altitudes in both cloud and cloud‑free environments. Its lack of a distinct visual signature makes detection and avoidance difficult. CAT is associated with wind shear near jet streams, gravity waves, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and may be further enhanced by climate change. This study examines the climatology, spatial distribution, seasonal variability, and trends of CAT over the contiguous United States.

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) from 2001–2025 between 100 and 400 hPa are analyzed alongside jet stream, shear, and stability diagnostics derived from NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis data. Proxies such as inverse …

A Climatology Of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings And Their Tropospheric Response, Joe Lovelien, Mark Sinclair

Publications

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can significantly influence surface weather, including cold air outbreaks (CAOs) across the midlatitudes. This study presents a climatology of SSWs from 1948-2024 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and examines their temporal distribution, relationships with large-scale climate variability, and impacts on surface temperatures in the United States. SSWs are identified using previously published definitions based on the reversal of zonal-mean winds at 60°N and 10 hPa. A total of 44 SSW events were identified, with a strong seasonal preference for January through March. Some decadal variability is observed, though …

Warming Climate Amplifies Vapor Pressure Deficit Limits On Gross Primary Productivity, Shiqin Xu, Nate G. Mcdowell, Tim R. Mcvicar, Diego G. Miralles, Stephen Sitch, Pablo Sanchez-Martinez, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hylke E. Beck, Matthew F. Mccabe

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Ongoing climate warming may profoundly impact terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), a key component of the global carbon cycle. However, uncertainty in the relative roles of atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) and root-zone soil moisture (SM) limits predictions of drought impacts on GPP. Here, we show that growing-season GPP was more strongly constrained by VPD than SM globally, based on observation-constrained model estimates, satellite retrievals and Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations. The importance of VPD increased with higher temperatures and more severe and prolonged droughts. This pattern reflects VPD’s critical role in regulating stomatal conductance and plant hydraulic …

Assessing Hyperlocal And Local Air Quality Through Passive Samplers And Low-Cost Monitors, Yan He

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Air pollution is a major environmental health concern and has been associated with respiratory disease, cardiovascular morbidity, metabolic disorders, premature mortality, and additional adverse health outcomes. Air pollution often exhibits substantial variability at fine spatial scales, yet conventional regulatory monitoring networks are too sparse to resolve neighborhood-level exposure gradients that may exist in many urban and rural communities. Hyperlocal differences in pollutant concentrations—driven by local emission sources, land use characteristics, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological conditions—can lead to systematic differences in long-term exposure among populations living only short distances apart. Improving exposure characterization therefore requires dense monitoring strategies and spatial modeling …

Dynamics And Energetics Of Fast Waves From The Earth's Surface To The Lower Thermosphere, Richard L. Walterscheid, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D.

Publications

We use a Full Wave Model to examine the dynamics and energetics of waves that can be excited in the troposphere by a large explosive event. We find resonant structures in phase speed wavenumber space that can have substructures with distinct properties. The primary waves found are Lamb waves and fast deep waves (denoted 𝐿′) that have a hybrid internal-external wave nature and were recently identified in observations. Lamb waves and thermospherically ducted waves are branches of two continuous forms separated by a gap in which Lamb waves are preempted by Lamb speed waves oscillating with the buoyancy frequency. We …

Developing A Multi-Band Gnss Remote Sensing Station To Measure Precipitable Water Vapor For Flash Flood Nowcasting, Madison Gleydura

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Flash flood nowcasting in Central and Southern Appalachia is particularly challenging due to steep terrain, narrow valleys, highly localized rainfall patterns, and limited measurement coverage. Traditional remote sensing methods, such as Doppler radar and microwave radiometry, suffer from reduced resolution at long range and signal blockage by mountains. GNSS-meteorology offers an established alternative for measuring precipitable water vapor and is currently integrated into several numerical weather models. Recent research demonstrates that commercial-grade GNSS receivers can produce tropospheric products comparable to those from geodetic-grade equipment. The gaps in mountain coverage can be addressed by developing a low-cost, self-contained embedded system that …

Impact Of In Situ Observations From Three Torus Cases On Model Analyses And Forecasts Of Severe Convection, Robert M. Szot

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The quality of forecasts of severe deep convection in high-resolution numerical weather prediction is dependent on the representativeness of the model initial conditions. This representativeness may be negatively impacted by limited observation availability and by the presence of mesoscale heterogeneities that were not detected by conventional observations assimilated into convection-allowing models. By assimilating storm-scale observations from the Targeted Observation by Radars and Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) of Supercells (TORUS) campaign into an ensemble styled after the Warn-on-Forecast System, this study aims to investigate if data from field work platforms can improve the quality of initial conditions in the ensemble, potentially …

Projections Of The Characteristics Of Extreme Precipitation In East Africa Using Bias-Corrected Cmip6 Models, Exavery K. Makula

Tanzania Journal of Science

In the context of ongoing global climate change, the intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to modify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events. Understanding how precipitation extremes will evolve under climate change is critical for East Africa (EA), a region highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards and strongly dependent on rainfall-driven socioeconomic systems. The region experiences two main rainfall seasons, namely the long rains (March-May, MAM) and the short rains (October-December, OND). This study investigates future projections of the characteristics of extreme precipitation across the EA using an ensemble of biascorrected CMIP6 global climate models. Extreme …

Changes In Land, Ocean, Atmospheric Parameters Associated With The 2025 Myanmar (Mw 7.7) Earthquake, Feng Jing, Akshansa Chauhan, Ashwani Raju, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Multiple parameters associated with the land, atmosphere, and ocean were analyzed to study short-term and immediate pre-earthquake changes associated with the 28 March 2025 Myanmar earthquake (Mw 7.7). Anomalous clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (ClrOLR) and trace gases (CH₄, CO, and O₃) were detected within two months prior to the mainshock. Vertical changes at different pressure levels suggest a possible underground source. High-temporal-resolution observations of the infrared brightness temperature and surface air pressure revealed short-lived fluctuations shortly before the earthquake, which may reflect localized stress adjustments and surface latent heat flux release during the final stage of earthquake preparation. In the …

Constraints To Adopting Locally Based Innovation Systems In Adapting To Climate Change Impacts In Serengeti District, Tanzania, Donald Mwiturubani

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania depend mainly on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This paper is based on a study conducted in Burunga and Musati villages in Serengeti District, Tanzania. The study employed a mixed methods approach; combining qualitative and quantitative methods. It involved 154 participants and employed household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions as data collection methods. The findings suggest that smallholder farmers in the study area are aware of climate change and do, indeed, develop, adopt, and use locally-based innovation systems that avert or minimise its impacts. Smallholder …

Long-Term Variability Of Air Quality And Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Rice Crop Burning In Punjab During 2012–2020, Harsimranjit Kaur Romana, Dericks Praise Shukla, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Punjab, India's primary rice and wheat production hub, has witnessed rapid expansion of paddy cultivation over the past two decades, driven by minimum support price incentives, changes in government policies, alignment of sowing with the monsoon season and the adoption of high-yielding varieties. This transition has intensified groundwater extraction and shortened the fallow period between rabi and kharif crop seasons, reducing the window between rice harvesting and wheat sowing, leading to widespread open-field burning of rice residue and recurrent post-monsoon air-quality deterioration across the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Despite numerous short-term or single-pollutant assessments, a spatially resolved, multi-pollutant and multi-decadal evaluation linking …

Characterizing Atmospheric Turbulence With The Lunar Step Response Method, Patrick D. Carattini, Caleb J. Stilp, Katelyn M. Atkinson, Stephen C. Cain

Faculty Publications

Most methods that astronomers use to characterize the strength of atmospheric turbulence in and around their observatories use differential image motion monitors observing a star to provide the necessary data for the measurement. With the Moon becoming a greater national priority, the need to characterize atmospheric paths between observatories on Earth and the Moon is potentially going to grow in the future. To this end, the differential image motion monitor is not an ideal instrument for characterizing turbulence along paths between observatories and the Moon as the bright Moon makes it difficult to detect and locate stars in its vicinity. …

A Unified Methodological Framework For Generating Digital Twins Of Multi Class Uncrewed Systems (Uxs), Sai Raghava Pathuri

Shelby Hall Graduate Research Forum Presentations

No abstract provided.