Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape, Spring 2023, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2023

Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting Model With Sample Filtering, Ruthbetha Kateule, Lucas A. Sakala, Mahadia Tunga

Tanzania Journal of Science

Short-term energy load forecasting is a crucial task in the power smart grid, which enables the power utilities to understand the future energy demands and plans to attain the demand and supply equilibrium, thereby optimizing power deployment and reducing power losses. Several techniques have been implemented to enhance energy load forecasting. However, the nonlinear nature of the data collected in the smart grid makes it difficult to attain 100% energy load forecasting accuracy. For instance, the Deep Feedforward Neural Networks model based on Input Attention Mechanism and Hidden Connection Mechanism has a mean absolute percentage error of 3.17%; model based …

Geo-Statistical Analysis Of Meteorological Drought And Recurrence Intervals In The Context Of Climate Change Over Extreme Northeastern Region Of Nigeria, Iliya B. Abaje

Tanzania Journal of Science

This study examined the occurrence of meteorological drought in the context of climate change over the extreme northeastern region of Nigeria using rainfall and temperature data spanning a period of 60 years (1961-2020) and 40 years (1981-2020), respectively. Linear regression, 5-year moving average and Cramer’s test were used to examine the changes in the rainfall and temperature. Rainfall Anomaly Index was used in depicting periods of different drought intensities in the region. The trend analysis of the climate data revealed that the region has been experiencing increasing rainfall and temperature in recent years. Findings also revealed that the droughts of …

Mapping The Spatial Footprint Of Sea Breeze Winds In The Southeastern United States, Shaowu Bao, Leonard Pietrafesa, Paul Gayes, Stephen Noble, Brian Viner, Jian-Hua Qian, David Werth, Grant Mitchell, Savannah Burdette

Marine Science

Sea breeze winds are observed at various locations worldwide, but the spatially continuous mapping of sea breeze winds is rare. We have developed a scheme to map the areas of the southeastern United States (SEUS) coast influenced by sea breeze winds using a range of surface re-analysis data to identify their occurrence. Changes in wind direction and dew point temperature are both used to detect a potential sea breeze signature, which is then confirmed by cumuliform clouds seen in satellite images or coastal fronts shown as cohesive lines in radar reflectivity images. Filters are employed to remove onshore winds not …

Analysis Of Energy Transfer Among Background Flow, Gravity Waves And Turbulence In The Mesopause Region In The Process Of Gravity Wave Breaking From A High-Resolution Atmospheric Model, Alan Z. Liu, Fan Yang, Christopher James Heale, Jonathan Brian Snively, Wenjun Dong, Thomas Lund

Publications

We conducted an analysis of the process of GW breaking from an energy perspective using the output from a high-resolution compressible atmospheric model. The investigation focused on the energy conversion and transfer that occur during the GW breaking. The total change in kinetic energy and the amount of energy converted to internal energy and potential energy within a selected region were calculated.
Prior to GW breaking, part of the potential energy is converted into kinetic energy, most of which is transported out of the chosen region. After the GW breaks and turbulence develops, part of the potential energy is converted …

Analysis Of Energy Transfer Among Background Flow, Gravity Waves And Turbulence In The Mesopause Region In The Process Of Gravity Wave Breaking From A High-Resolution Atmospheric Model, Fan Yang, Alan Z. Liu, Christopher J. Heale, Jonathan B. Snively, Wenjun Dong, Thomas Lund

Publications

We conducted an analysis of the process of GW breaking from an energy perspective using the output from a high-resolution compressible atmospheric model. The investigation focused on the energy conversion and transfer that occur during the GW breaking. The total change in kinetic energy and the amount of energy converted to internal energy and potential energy within a selected region were calculated. Prior to GW breaking, part of the potential energy is converted into kinetic energy, most of which is transported out of the chosen region. After the GW breaks and turbulence develops, part of the potential energy is converted …

Dynamic Characteristics Of Aerosol Optical Properties Over Dibrugarh City In The North-Eastern Indian Region During 2018–2021, Akshansa Chauhan, Shukla Acharjee, Ramesh P. Singh, Brent N. Holben

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Aerosols play an important role in the earth's environment across the globe through their involvement in various earth system cycles. The change in the aerosol properties may cause short and long-term impacts, the knowledge of such changes is useful in the estimation of the pollution sources of any region. We have carried out the analysis of the aerosols' optical and radiative properties using AERONET station data from 2018 to 2021 in Dibrugarh City. The higher Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) values during winter and pre-monsoon months indicate high anthropogenic activities, and biomass burning in Dibrugarh. The impact of various sources and …

Atmospheric Polarization And Solar Position As Kalman Updates To A Navigation Solution, Thomas J. Wheeler

Theses and Dissertations

Simulation and physical testing of a sensor that measures relative position of the Sun and polarization of light in the atmosphere as a navigational aid in a Kalman filter.

Communicating About Extreme Heat: Results From Card Sorting And Think Aloud Interviews With Experts From Differing Domains, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh, Savannah Olivas

Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity Faculty Scholarship

Climate trends indicate that extreme heat events are becoming more common and more severe over time, requiring improved strategies to communicate heat risk and protective actions. However, there exists a disconnect in heat-related communication from experts, who commonly include heat related jargon (i.e., technical language), to decision makers and the general public. The use of jargon has been shown to reduce meaningful engagement with and understanding of messages written by experts. Translating technical language into comprehensible messages that encourage decision makers to take action has been identified as a priority to enable impact-based decision support. Knowing what concepts and terms …

Validation Of Bottom-Up Gnss Radio Occultation Method To Measure D- And E-Region Electron Density, Dylan J. Shaver

Theses and Dissertations

An in-depth validation of a new bottom-up approach using GNSS Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) data to generate electron density profiles in the D- and E-region ionosphere. This comparison was completed using daytime ionosonde profiles when sporadic-E (E_s) was not present, and corresponding FIRI profiles. The average GNSS-RO profile is a few kilometers higher in altitude than the ionosonde profiles at the minimum frequency, f min. When the ionosonde profiles are shifted so that the altitudes match at f min, they are in good agreement up to the E-region peak altitude, hmE. Below f min, the …

Molecular Dynamics Simulation Data: Mw And Mlmw Water Model Ice Nucleation On A Hydrophilic Substrate With Negative Pressure, Will Cantrell, Tianshu Li, Issei Nakamura, Elise Rosky, Raymond Shaw

Michigan Tech Research Data

This dataset contains the data supporting Figures in the study by Rosky et al., "Molecular simulations reveal that heterogeneous ice nucleation occurs at higher temperatures in water under capillary tension", submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics in February 2023. Input files for reproducing the molecular dynamics simulations are included.

The abstract from the paper reads: Using a molecular model of water freezing on a hydrophilic substrate, it is found that heterogeneous ice nucleation rates occur at higher temperatures in water that is under tension, in other words under negative pressure. For pressures ranging from from 1 atm to …

Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations For Earth’S Atmosphere, Christopher J. Heale, Christopher G. Kruse, Jadwiga H. Richter, M. Joan Alexander, Julio T. Bacmeister, Junhong Wei

Publications

Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), or buoyancy waves, transport momentum and energy through Earth’s atmosphere. GWs are important at nearly all levels of the atmosphere, though, the momentum they transport is particularly important in general circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere. Primary sources of atmospheric GWs are flow over mountains, moist convection, and imbalances in jet/frontal systems. Secondary GWs can also be generated as a result of dissipation of a primary GWs. Gravity waves typically have horizontal wavelengths of 10’s to 100’s of kilometers, though, they can have scales of 1’s to 1000’s of kilometers as well. Current effective resolutions …

Droughtscape, Winter 2023, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2023

Using Stochastic Physics Perturbations In Ensemble Forecasts To Investigate Predictability Of Mesoscale Winter Precipitation Events, William Massey Bartolini

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Accurate winter precipitation forecasts are difficult due to factors influencing precipitation amounts and precipitation types including numerical weather prediction biases. In particular, large forecast errors can arise due to uncertainties in parameterized processes, especially those related to microphysics and turbulence. Many winter weather impacts are due to mesoscale precipitation features that are better represented in convection-permitting model forecasts. One way to account for model physics uncertainty is to design convection-permitting ensembles using stochastic physics methods. For example, stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) varies parameters within individual schemes. SPP methods can be combined with varied initial and boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) to represent …

The Impacts Of Atlantic And Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability On South American And Arctic Climate, Zhaoxiangrui He

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations mainly include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on decadal-interdecadal timescales. Understanding their impacts on South American and Arctic climate is crucial for studying climate variability and helpful to constrain climate model projections for these regions on multidecadal timescales. Prior studies focused mainly on their impacts on global climate, but multidecadal impacts on South American climate are poorly understood due to the lack of long observational records. Furthermore, earlier research investigated primarily the isolated impacts on global climate from the Atlantic …

Assimilating New York State Mesonet Observations For A Summertime Convective Event, Hsiao-Chun Lin

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In New York State (NYS), the prediction of high-impact severe weather event has presented a challenging forecasting problem. The NYS Mesonet (NYSM) has the potential to improve the severe weather forecasting through its continuous in situ and remote sensing measurements on the lower troposphere. The dense observing network can capture the evolution of mesoscale motions with high temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of this dissertation are (1) to assess whether the assimilation of NYSM observations into numerical weather prediction models could improve model analysis and short-term weather forecasting, and (2) to figure out the important key factor and physical …

Understanding Precipitation Dynamics Of Southern China Through Isotope Analysis Of Lake Yilong Sediments And Other Regional Records, Angelena N. Campisi

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The delivery of monsoonal precipitation in the face of climate change is a growing concern, especially within regions with high population density and a corresponding demand for freshwater resources. Within these regions, the monsoon season can deliver more than half of the annual freshwater for the area. Regional climate dynamics controlling these precipitation patterns within the Holocene (11.7 kyr BP−present) are poorly understood and difficult to differentiate within a single climate proxy from a single site. However, by cross referencing different proxies within a given region we can begin to discern general trends in precipitation dynamics on centennial and multi−centennial …

The Effects Of Ep And Cp Enso Phases During Different Seasons On The First Four Dominant Modes Of The Mjo, Suphanat Maneesai

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual climate mode that is dominant in tropical Pacific and affects regional and global weather and climate. Some may categorize ENSO into two types – eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO) and central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO). Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant intraseasonal mode in the tropics that impacts regional and global weather. Previous studies have established relationships between ENSO and MJO. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed to retrieve the principal components (PCs), instead of filtering atmospheric data, to approximately trace the MJO to analyze its relationship with ENSO. An …

Stratospheric Glider Measurements Of Atmospheric Parameters, Anisa Haghighi

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

In June 2021 a series of high altitude flights were conducted in Spaceport America, NM, using a balloon launched Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) to assess its capability to conduct measurements of various atmospheric properties and study turbulence in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. This UAS descends using an automated flight trajectory. The instruments aboard included a NASA-developed infrasonic microphone to evaluate its remote turbulence detection capabilities and a five-hole probe capable of measuring the in situ wind vector. Also on board were temperature, humidity and wind profile sensors. This document focuses on the atmospheric properties measured at high altitudes, the …

Precision Meteorological Prediction Employing A Data-Driven, Adaptive, Real-Time (Dart) Approach, Sujit Sinha

Theses and Dissertations--Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

The objective of this research is to improve precision meteorological prediction, benefiting both uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) operations by avoiding hazardous flight conditions and tracking contaminant or toxic clouds caused by incidents, accidents, or fires. The operational concept is to collect meteorological observations from instruments mounted on a swarm of UAVs, telemeter the data to a weather simulation model, revise the predicted solution by adapting the flow field to the observations, and then transmit the updated forecast to appropriate personnel as well as to the guidance system of UAVs for repositioning to the next set of most beneficial measurements. While …