Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Sources And Significance Of Symmetric Instability In The Outflow Layer Of Tropical Cyclones, Minghao Zhou

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The tropical cyclone (TC) outflow layer is an integral part of the TC transverse circulation: warm and moist air converges in the boundary layer of the TC; rising motion and condensational heating occur in the TC eyewall and rainbands; the TC warm core and divergent anticyclone establish in the mid-upper troposphere, with the mass imported into the TC center exported away through outflow near the tropopause.

A series of state-of-the-art numerical simulations were utilized to investigate different scenarios of TC outflow evolution, from an idealized axisymmetric setup to a semi-idealized asymmetric setup, to a real-case setup of TC–trough interaction. Large …

Investigating The Uncertainties Of Forecasting Ne Cold Season Precipitation In Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Yanna Chen

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

A major winter storm on March 2, 2018, posed significant challenges in predicting precipitation type (P-type) in the northeast U.S., particularly the Hudson Valley. While National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts predicted a mix of rain and snow, observations showed predominantly snow, with errors in snow depth forecasts of 8-12 inches near Albany.

This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate how model physics (microphysics, cumulus, boundary layer, and radiation schemes) and domain configuration influenced snow depth predictions. Results revealed significant sensitivities to cumulus and radiation schemes, as well as the vertical resolution in the middle troposphere. …

Hysplit In Simulating The Atmospheric Dispersion Of Hazardous Aerosols: A Case Study In St. Louis, Missouri, Ahmet Tolga Odabasi

Masters Theses

"Atmospheric dispersion and transmission play an important role in the behavior and effects of air pollution. Human health can be adversely affected by air pollution in a variety of ways, both immediately and over time. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) modeling program, a computer model and software package, tracks the transport trajectories and distributions of air pollution and various pollutants, including radioactive pollutants, in the atmosphere. It also facilitates research on pollution sources. This study simulated the transport of hazardous aerosols in St. Louis region for the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 using the HYSPLIT modeling …

The Future Of Convective Mode In The United States, Jeremy Malcolm Corner

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This work examines potential changes in convective mode associated with hazardous convective weather (HCW) using a suite of high-resolution regional climate simulations and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML). An AI/ML model called a convolutional neural network (CNN) is first generated and validated using an existing dataset of composite reflectivity images centered on tornado reports from 1996 – 2017 called SVRIMG (SeVeRe IMaGes). Each image in SVRIMG is annotated with four possible convective modes: 1) cellular; 2) mixed mode; 3) linear; and 4) other. The best-performing model, which achieves an accuracy exceeding 90% on testing images, is then used to diagnose storm …

A Climatology And Characteristics Of Midwest Heavy Snowfall, Benjamin William Warren

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Understanding the characteristics of snowfall across the Midwest U.S. is critical for regional ecosystems, water cycles, and socioeconomic activities. The Midwest, however, has not been the primary focus of snow-related research in recent years. Therefore, this research uses observational and reanalysis data in the Midwest from 1991 through 2020 and radar data from 2009 through 2020 to create a comprehensive snowfall climatology, investigate regional trends in heavy snowfall, and determine the frequency of banded versus non-banded snowfall. As expected, heavy snowfall (i.e., daily snowfall accumulation >4") is most frequent in northern Midwest (e.g., Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), with the frequency …

The Impact Of Thunderstorms On Take-Off Data In South Africa, Quinton Jacobs Mr.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aviation and meteorology are entwined disciplines, as aviation occurs in the atmosphere. Prevailing weather conditions at take-off are of utmost importance to aviation. This determines the payload of the aircraft and runway in use. Forecast verification is essential to aviation as it determines the quality of the forecasting products. The tolerances for take-off data are stringent and slightly relaxed tolerances are used in South Africa by mutual agreement.

There are six aerodromes in South Africa where Take-off Data are produced, in varying climatic conditions as South Africa is in both the tropics and midlatitudes. Thunderstorms are a common occurrence over …

Using Airborne Measurements To Evaluate Forecasts Of Freezing Drizzle Aloft Results From The Wintre-Mix Field Campaign, Megan Schiede

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Icing associated with the accretion of supercooled large droplets (SLD) serves as a significant hazard to aviation activities. Forecasting SLD events is complex due in part to the limitations of numerical weather prediction models. The Winter Precipitation Type Research Multiscale Experiment (WINTRE-MIX) aimed to comprehend such limitations within numerical forecasts of precipitation type (p-type) through the use of extensive observations during events with multiple p-types. To investigate precipitation processes aloft in winter storms with near-freezing surface conditions, research flights were orchestrated with the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 aircraft. This study examines a WINTRE-MIX intensive observing period that took …

A Comparison Of Arctic And Atlantic Basin Cyclone Predictability From A Climatology And Case Study Perspective, Peyton Capute

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Arctic cyclones (ACs) can transport warm, moist air into the Arctic region, which combined with strong winds may lead to rapid declines in sea ice during the summer. As a consequence, accurate sea ice predictions during the summer may rely on being able to predict cyclone-related wind speed and direction, which critically depends on the cyclone track and intensity. Despite this, there are relatively few studies that have documented the predictability of ACs during the summer, beyond a few case studies. In addition, there has been no extensive comparison of whether these cyclones are more or less predictable relative to …

Toward The Unified Theory Of Said-Linked Subauroral Arcs, Evgeny V. Mishin, Anatoly V. Streltsov

Publications

We present a unified approach to subauroral arcs within intense subauroral ion drifts (SAID), which explains the observed transition of a precursor Stable Auroral Red (SAR) arc into Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE). This approach is based on the short-circuiting concept of fasttime SAID as an integral part of a magnetospheric voltage generator between the innermost boundaries of the freshly injected plasma sheet electrons and ring current ions. Here, enhanced plasma turbulence rapidly heats the bulk plasma and accelerates suprathermal non-Maxwellian “tails.” Heat and suprathermal electron transport rapidly elevate the ionospheric electron temperature—the source of a bright SAR arc. …

The Importance Of Ice Microphysics In Storm Electrification, Yichen Cai

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Evanescent but powerful, lightning is the vast scale release of storm energy from accumulation of minuscule cloud particle interactions. Although lightning occurrence seems random, thunderstorms “electrify” themselves in methodical ways and show structured patterns. This study explores the role of ice microphysics in thunderstorm charging and discharge through numerical simulation.

A squall line has been simulated ideally and realistically with generally consistent conclusions. Drastically different amount of lightning was produced when using three different microphysical models: Depending on the choice of charging scheme, the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) two-moment model appropriately captures or overestimate the amount observed by the …

Predictability Of Downslope Windstorms And Mechanisms Controlling Their Onset, Matthew James Brewer

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Downslope windstorms in the western United States often contribute to the ignition and ex- acerbation of existing wildfires due to their hot, dry, and gusty nature. Accurate forecasts of these windstorms are imperative for mitigating wildfire risk. However, forecasting downslope windstorms remains challenging due to their sensitivity to environmental conditions.

The Sundowner Windstorms of the Santa Barbara, California region have been asso- ciated with many large wildfires in the area. This study analyzes special observations from the Sundowner Wind Experiment field campaign to better understand the diurnal cycle of these windstorms. Analysis of the strongest windstorm during the campaign indicates …

Understanding Local And Large-Scale Drivers Of Rainfall Variability And Change Over The Hawaiian Islands Region, Katrina Fandrich

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Hawaiian rainfall variability is strongly influenced by anthropogenic climate change and natural variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). For local decision-makers and resource managers, understanding the drivers of rainfall variability and change in Hawai‘i is crucial for climate adaptation and mitigation planning. Previous studies have applied statistical and dynamical downscaling to produce high-resolution rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands region. However, to date, downscaling has only been used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late-century rainfall projections for the Hawaiian Islands. For regions like Hawai’i, that are highly vulnerable …

Investigating Microphysical Variability And Entrainment In Clouds Using Airborne Digital Holography, Machine Learning, And Large Eddy Simulations, Nithin Allwayin

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Advancing our understanding of cloud microphysics—the processes governing cloud particles' formation, growth, and interactions—is essential for accurate weather and climate modeling. In this work, we investigate how droplet size distributions vary in a cloud and explore how microphysical properties such as droplet size and number concentration respond to entrainment and mixing.

In the first part of the work, a novel algorithm is developed combining hypothesis testing with density-based clustering to identify characteristic cloud droplet size distribution types in marine stratocumulus clouds. Applied to data from the airborne Holographic Detector for Clouds (HOLODEC), the algorithm successfully identifies a relatively small set …

Data In 'Development At The University Of North Dakota Of A Digital Thermosonde Instrument For The Study Of Atmospheric Optical Turbulence (C_N^2)', Blake T. Sorenson, David J. Delene

Datasets

A thermosonde, an instrument that measures very high resolution temperature difference between two fine-wire platinum thermocouples, was attached to a weather balloon and lifted through the atmosphere, collecting observations of optical turbulence, in the spring of 2018 and 2019. The thermosonde collected raw temperature difference measurements, while an onboard Graw DFM-09 radiosonde observed standard meteorological parameters (temperature, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and altitude). The Graw meteorological observations are housed in the .txt files, while the raw radiosonde data (containing the raw, encoded thermosonde measurements) are housed in the .gsf files. The decoded voltage and temperature difference …

Deep Learning Approaches For Chaotic Dynamics And High-Resolution Weather Simulations In The Us Midwest, Vlada Volyanskaya, Kabir Batra, Shubham Shrivastava

Discovery Undergraduate Interdisciplinary Research Internship

Weather prediction is indispensable across various sectors, from agriculture to disaster forecasting, deeply influencing daily life and work. Recent advancement of AI foundation models for weather and climate predictions makes it possible to perform a large number of predictions in reasonable time to support timesensitive policy- and decision-making. However, the uncertainty quantification, validation, and attribution of these models have not been well explored, and the lack of knowledge can eventually hinder the improvement of their prediction accuracy and precision. Our project is embarking on a two-fold approach leveraging deep learning techniques (LSTM and Transformer) architectures. Firstly, we model the Lorenz …

An Investigation Into Past And Future Freezing Level Height And Equilibrium Line Altitude In The Tropical Andes Using Cmip6, Shelby Turner

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The freezing level height (FLH) in the tropical Andes has increased over the past several decades, as is evident with the receding of alpine glaciers in this region. The accuracy of Global Climate Models (GCMs)—specifically previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—in this region remains an issue, as the complex terrain and climate characteristics are difficult to simulate realistically. The changes seen in these tropical alpine glaciers in the past few decades are a clear indicator of the effects climate change is having in this tropical mountain region, making it important to better understand current and projected future …

Characterizing And Understanding Orographic Precipitation Over The Mountains Of Extratropical South America, Yazmina Rojas Beltran

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Extratropical South-America (30-40°S) varies significantly in topography, including a coastal mountain range with elevation from 700-1300 m, a central valley, and the Andes, with elevation from 1000-2500 m on the western side of the continent. The topography of the area can disrupt frontal systems approaching from the Pacific Ocean, leading to enhanced orographic precipitation over the windward slope of the Andes and a sharp rain shadow, with less precipitation in the leeside. These phenomena are also observed over the coastal mountains of south-central Chile. The main goals of this study are to characterize and understand orographic precipitation and rain shadow …

Initiation Criteria For The Onset Of Geomagnetic Substorms Based On Auroral Observations And Electrojet Current Signatures, Mayowa Michael Kayode-Adeoye

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

In recent years, several substorm onset criteria have been developed, either from auroral observations (many authors) or from auroral electrojet properties such as those described by (Forsyth et al., 2015; Maimaiti et al., 2019; Newell & Gjerloev, 2011; Partamies et al., 2011) The different criteria are being investigated using a low order physics model of the magnetosphere called WINDMI (Spencer et al., 2009) and inferences are being made in line with the WINDMI model. The model variables will be compared with the criteria for substorm onset proposed by examining the SML index.

The WINDMI model uses solar wind and IMF …

Multi-Layer Evolution Of Acoustic-Gravity Waves And Ionospheric Disturbances Over The United States After The 2022 Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption, P. A. Inchin, A. Bhatt, S. A. Cummer, S. D. Eckermann, B. J. Harding, J. Ma, J. J. Makela, J B. Snively

Publications

e Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai volcano underwent a series of large-magnitude eruptions that generated in the atmosphere. We investigate the spatial and temporal evolutions of fluctuations driven by atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) and, in particular, the Lamb wave modes in high spatial resolution data sets measured over the Continental United States (CONUS), complemented with data over the Americas and the Pacific. Along with >800 barometer sites, tropospheric observations, and Total Electron Content data from >3,000 receivers, we report detections of volcano-induced AGWs in mesopause and ionosphere-thermosphere airglow imagery and Fabry-Perot interferometry. We also report unique AGW signatures in the ionospheric D-region, measured …

Translation Speed Influence On Tropical Cyclone Storm Tide And Surge Generation Along The Gulf Of Mexico Coast, Samantha L. Camarda

LSU Master's Theses

This research examines tropical cyclone translation speed as a factor in storm tide and surge height upon landfall on the United States Gulf Coast. Understanding the effect of translation speed on peak storm tide/surge height is needed to better prepare for and predict future damage from tropical cyclone events. Tropical cyclone data are taken from hourly interpolated best-track HURDAT2 data from 1970–2021. This study uses the HURDAT2 hourly interpolated observation data points (24-hours) pre-landfall to landfall. Translation speed is calculated based on the distance traversed between hourly points. Peak storm tide and storm surge data are taken from SURGEDAT from …