Behavioral Economics Commons^™

The Effect Of Magnitude And Probability On Plea Bargain Decision-Making, Megan L. Small

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Decision-making is studied in various aspects of life and can be especially vital in the context of the criminal justice system, such as plea bargains. Previous research in this area used a less commonly used task (fill-in-the-blank) in addition to a student sample (Falligant & Pence, 2019). The current study uses probability discounting to study the choice between accepting a plea bargain for a shorter incarceration sentence or risking a trial with a longer sentence on a sample of adults with experience in the criminal justice system. Three sentence durations, or magnitudes, were used (1 year, 5 years, and 25 …

Signals From On High And The Power Of Growth Mindset: A Natural Field Experiment In Attracting Minorities To High-Profile Position, Jeffrey A. Flory, Andreas Leibbrandt, Christina Rott, Olga B. Stoddard

Faculty Publications

We conduct a large-scale natural field experiment with a Fortune 500 company to test several approaches to attract minorities to high-profile positions. 5,000 prospective applicants were randomized into treatments varying a portion of recruiting materials. We find that self-selection at two early-career stages exhibits a substantial race gap. Importantly, we show that this gap can be strongly influenced by several treatments, with some increasing application rates by minorities by 40 percent and others being particularly effective for minority women. The heterogeneities we find by gender, race, and career stage shed light on the underlying drivers of self-selection barriers among minorities.

Jue Insight: Migration, Transportation Infrastructure, And The Spatial Transmission Of Covid-19 In China, Bingjing Li, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.

Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In most democracies, members of parliament (MPs) are elected either through a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German electoral system to investigate the causal effect of a district election on an MP’s conformity with the party line. A district election does not affect roll-call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party-line voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party-line discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches …

Are Risk Attitudes And Rainfall Variability Determinants Of Diversification? Evidence From Rondonia, Brazil, Brenna Swinger

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Risk exposure and management are inherent to smallholder farmers. One of the risks they face is climate change. Climate change decreases rainfall, increases frequency of drought, adds heat stress to crops from higher temperatures, and leads to higher rainfall variability. The threat of rainfall variability causes higher production in some years and lower in others. Even if the average income remains the same, people’s welfare is reduced by the variability and the size of the loss will depend on their attitudes towards risk.

Diversification is one adaption strategy that may help reduce climate risk. Diversified farmers produce multiple types of …

Invited Perspective - Engaging Aspirations To Nurture Communities, Kentaro Toyama

Subsistence Marketplaces

For subsistence communities, the question is whether aspirations can be applied to motivate behavior that is, on the one hand consistent with people’s aspirations, but which might otherwise be difficult to elicit. Could poorer households be encouraged to save, to spend more on their children’s education, or to act against unhealthy social norms? A couple of examples suggest this is not only possible, but highly successful in contexts where other appeals fail.

Testing The Relationship Between Confidence And Effort: A Behavioral Finance Perspective On The Problem Of Financial Literacy, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

This experimental study tested the relationship between confidence and effort with the ultimate objective of discovering how these factors may influence financial literacy. This was done through a modified version of a slider test and ball allocation task. The population consisted of 85 random participants who were primarily approached through social media. A simple OLS regression, along with robustness checks, namely the Tobit model and instrumental variable (IV) regression model using Tobit estimators, were utilized to confirm the causal relationship between confidence and effort.

Does Precise Case Disclosure Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence From Covid-19 In Singapore, Aljoscha Janssen, Matthew H. Shapiro

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limiting the spread of contagious diseases can involve both government-managed and voluntary efforts. Governments have a number of policy options beyond direct intervention that can shape individuals’ responses to a pandemic and its associated costs. During its first wave of COVID-19 cases, Singapore was among a few countries that attempted to adjust behavior through the announcement of detailed case information. Singapore's Ministry of Health maintained and shared precise, daily information detailing local travel behavior and residences of COVID-19 cases. We use this policy along with device-level cellphone data to quantify how local and national COVID-19 case announcements trigger differential behavioral …

The Effects Of Cost, Level Of Safety, And Severity Of Injury On Manager Decisions To Implement A Safety Solution, Jonathan M. Hochmuth

Dissertations

Workplace injuries continue to be a source of substantial human and financial costs each year. Behavioral safety processes have been effective in reducing workplace injuries by increasing safety-related behaviors. In recent years, the focus in behavioral safety has shifted towards the role of managers in establishing and maintaining safe behaviors and conditions in the workplace. Understanding how managers make decisions to allocate resources is critical to improving safety. The field of behavioral economics has developed methods for studying decision-making. While there have been calls to apply these methods to occupational safety, there are only two empirical studies which have done …

Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the relationship between real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Findings show that domestic consumption determines the regime shift in real exchange rate, suggesting a nonlinear linkage with clearly distinct regimes. The lagged exchange rate is shown to have a significant linear effect on the current exchange rate. On the other hand, current foreign consumption is positive but has no significant impact on the exchange rate in the linear part of the model. In the nonlinear part of the model, evidence of a significant negative …

Economic Impact Of Targeted Government Responses To Covid-19: Evidence From The Large-Scale Cluster In Seoul, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Jinwook Shin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the economic impact of South Korea's targeted responses to the first large-scale COVID-19 cluster in Seoul. We find that foot traffic and retail sales decreased only within a 300 meter radius of the cluster and recovered to its pre-outbreak level after four weeks. The reductions appear to be driven by temporary business closures rather than the risk avoidance behavior of the citizens. Our results imply that less intense, but more targeted COVID-19 interventions, such as pin-pointed, temporary closures of businesses, can be a low-cost alternative after lifting strict social distancing measures.

Tourism And Terrorism- A Study Of Jammu And Kashmir, Altaf Ahmd Kumar

Journal of Tourism Insights

Abstract

Purpose - This research article analyzes terrorism and its impacts on tourism in Jammu and Kashmir. This article aims to know what terrorism is and how it impacts the tourism sector in the three geographical regions of erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated into two union territories by the Indian government after the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution.

Methodology - Secondary data sources have been used, collected from Director Tourism Kashmir, Director Tourism Jammu, Jammu, and Kashmir Coalition of Civil Societies, and Home Ministry of India. In this research paper, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) of …

Life Satisfaction And Tax Morale In Azerbaijan: Mediating Role Of Institutional Trust And Financial Satisfaction, Orkhan Nadirov, Khatai Aliyev, Bruce Dehning, Ilaha Sharifzada, Rafiga Aliyeva

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

This paper examines the relationship between life satisfaction (measured as the self-reported satisfaction of each individual with their past life and goal achievements) and tax morale (measured as the likelihood of an individual’s intrinsic motivation to pay taxes). Using a large-scale survey dataset from Azerbaijan, it is documented that life satisfaction is positively associated with tax morale. Life satisfaction plays a significant role in increasing tax compliance practices. It is also important to note that there is a positive mediating effect of life satisfaction on tax morale through financial satisfaction and institutional trust. In line with our hypotheses, the results …

Municipal Optimization Of Short-Term Rental Regulations: The Reality Of Airbnb In South Texas Communities, Kenneth M. Culbreth Iii

St. Mary's Law Journal

Abstract forthcoming.

The Giver: Vision & Memory, Alexander J. Dontre

All Faculty and Staff Scholarship

A memory hole is the banishment of problematic thoughts. We exile that which we prefer not to exist. Enter the perilous Memory Hole: The Psychology of Dystopia, to explore a legion of social and psychological themes through the lens of dystopian literature. The crushing fist of 1984 annihilating thoughts from existence as a means of persuasion. The exquisite seduction of addiction as an agent of control in Brave New World. Incineration of the written word to bask in the embers of peace of mind in Fahrenheit 451. Each chapter weaves in and out of the dystopian realms forged …

Teaching Math With Confidence-Recommendations For Improving Numeracy From The Lens Of Confidence Building, Louie Bernard A. Jacob, Miguel Angelo S. Rabago, Hans Erickson A. Tan, Lawrence Dacuycuy, Gerardo L. Largoza, Maria Fe Carmen L. Dabbay

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Despite the vast amount of literature surrounding the topic of financial literacy and related problems, there is still no universally accepted solution to this issue because the main factors causing financial literacy problems are still not fully understood both by researchers and current policy-makers. A possible new approach was discovered by Skagerlund et al. (2018), as their research suggested that financial literacy is driven by numeracy (the ability to process and perform basic numerical concepts and calculations) rather than direct knowledge about financial concepts. Given that numeracy is an effort based task, this policy brief provides a list of recommendations …

A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach To Portfolio Selection: An Application To The Blue Chip Stocks In The Philippine Stock Exchange (2010-2019), Vishal Bhagia, Colleen Monica K. Chiu, Paulynne J. Castillo, Roberto B. Raymundo, Joel Q. Tanchuco

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

There has been a growing interest in the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a nonparametric approach in portfolio optimization due to its flexibility in overcoming the limitations of the conventional mean-variance portfolio (MVP) model. Therefore, this study aims to validate the allocative efficiency of the DEA cross-efficiency model using blue chip stocks in the Philippine Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. This study finds that the proposed model is able to distinguish a unique set of best-performing stocks across each holding period and outperforms the MVP more consistently. The results of this study suggest that the proposed DEA …

Oil Price Fluctuations Impact On The Lebanese Economic Well Being, Hanadi Taher

BAU Journal - Health and Wellbeing

This paper investigates the impact of oil price fluctuation on the Lebanese economic well being during the period from 1988 to 2018 using multivariable ordinary least square method with annual time series. taking the Lebanese GDP per capita as proxy for the economic wellbeing as dependent variable and the crud oil average annual prices as proxy for oil price fluctuations with Labor and gross fixed capital formation as two control variables. The test results show a significant and positive impact for the oil price fluctuations on the Lebanese economic well being and the significant results for control variables. In testing …

Improving Youth Financial Literacy: A Profile Of Middle School Camp Attendees, Jamie Lynn Byram, John Grable, Kenneth J. White, Michael Thomas, Kimberly Watkins

Journal of Extension

The purpose of this paper is to present a profile of middle-school-age youth who participated in a week-long experiential residential camp focused on helping campers learn about and interact with money, personal finance topics, and mainstream financial service providers. Based on pre- and post-test data, it was determined an experiential real-world camp experience can increase the financial confidence and goal-setting abilities of young people.

Projected Versus Actual On-Campus Student Enrollment During The Covid-19 Pandemic For Fall 2020 At Purdue University: A Quantitative Analysis Of Purdue Office Of Enrollment Management Data, Max Bebekoski

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

No abstract provided.

Other-Regarding Expert Behavior - Economics Experiments, Erik Darwin Hille

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This thesis analyzes two experiments where experts are facing other-regarding versus self-interested choices on behalf of their clients. The experimental models isolate and examine singular aspects of the complex varied transactions that transpire between experts and their clients every day. Prior literature modeling experts in dictator games or expert advice games shows that given a clear choice with direct culpability that experts are willing to make “fair” other regarding decisions that sacrifice some of their own monetary outcome to increase the outcome for others. However, in these same experiments with the same subject, experts are willing to hide behind many …

The Price Elasticity Of African Elephant Poaching, Quy-Toan Do, Andrei A. Levchenko, Lin Ma, Julian Blanc, Holly Dublin, Tom Milliken

Research Collection School Of Economics

The objective of this paper is to provide an estimate of the elasticity of elephant poaching with respect to prices. Ivory being a storable commodity subjects its price to Hotelling’s no-arbitrage condition, hence allowing identification of the supply curve. The price of gold, one of many commodities used as stores of value, is thus used as an instrument for ivory prices. The supply of illegal ivory is found to be price inelastic with an elasticity of 0.4, with changes in consumer prices passing-through to prices faced by producers at a rate close to unity. Estimations based on a number of …

Social Norms And Fertility, Sunha Myong, Junghae Park, Junjian Yi

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document three stylized facts on marriage and fertility patterns in East Asian societies: (i) their marriage rates are among the highest in the world, but their total fertility is the lowest; (ii) although they have the lowest total fertility, almost all married women have at least one child; and (iii) almost no single women have any children. As these societies have been influenced by Confucianism over millennia, marriage and fertility decisions are potentially shaped by two social norms: the unequal gender division of childcare and the stigma attached to out-of-wedlock births. We present a model incorporating the two social …

Divergent Expectations And Dynamic Price Discovery, Shankar Narayanan

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Purpose: To provide empirical evidence supporting the claim that divergent expectations underlie price formation during the U.S. equity market opening hours. We focus on earnings announcements to support this claim. This dissertation argues that the clarity of earnings announcements and a firm’s balance sheets is inversely associated with the quality of price discovery during the opening hours after the earnings announcements, as ambiguities in information underlie divergence in expectation. We look at short-term volatility during the opening half-hours of U.S. equity markets after the earnings announcements to assess the quality of price discovery. We also consider changes in short-term …

Providing Childcare, Christine Ho, Sunha Myong

Research Collection School Of Economics

Women’s economic empowerment has been hailed as one of the most remarkable revolutions in the past 50 years. Yet, women still face the lion’s share of the burden of childcare despite major progress in their education and earnings capacity. This is particularly salient in many Asian countries. This chapter proposes a synthesis of the state of knowledge on childcare and discusses policy-relevant issues applicable to the Singapore context. Selected policies are documented and lessons from the international landscape are discussed. Raising children incurs both direct costs in the form of childcare and opportunity costs in the form of career costs. …

Measuring Palatability As A Linear Combination Of Nutrient Levels In Food Items, Jeffrey S. Young

Faculty & Staff Research and Creative Activity

It well known that palatability and nutritional quality of foods and/or diets are viewed as being in tension with one another. While there exist multiple measures of healthiness, there are no such measures for tastiness. This gap limits the degree to which researchers can investigate this tension and its implications for dietary behavior and hence public health and nutrition policy. The scope of future work concerning the dietary behavior of Americans would expand greatly if researchers better understood consumers’ willingness to eat certain foods, which matters as much as recommending those foods for them to eat in the first place. …

The Asymmetric Effect Of Sentiment On Equity Returns, Mishal Ahmed

Dissertations

In the first chapter titled “The Asymmetric Effect of Sentiment on U.S. Equity Returns”, we test the asymmetric impact of investor sentiment, proxied by the Baker-Wurgler (2007) investor sentiment index, on expected stock returns in the U.S. We regress sentiment on market and economy-wide fundamentals, use the residuals as a measure of excess sentiment and estimate long-horizon return regressions using positive and negative components of excess sentiment as predictors. We hypothesize that excessive optimism leads investors to make significant portfolio changes whereas excessive pessimism makes investors more cautious about investing, due to loss aversion. Primary results confirm our hypothesis with …

“Why Am I The Only One Responsible For The Whole Family?”: Expressions Of Economic Filial Piety And Financial Anxiety Among Female Survivors Of Sex Trafficking In Cambodia, Julia M. Smith-Brake, Lim Vanntheary, Nhanh Channtha

Dignity: A Journal of Analysis of Exploitation and Violence

Filial piety has evolved and spread in different ways throughout Asia, with the common thread of deep respect and gratitude towards one’s parents remaining a very strong cultural value. In Khmer culture, filial piety includes the expectation that daughters and daughters-in-law provide daily assistance to parents and parents-in-law. Financial anxiety includes the worry and negative mental health outcomes associated with financial stressors. This article presents findings from the Butterfly Longitudinal Research Study on themes on filial piety and financial anxiety, combining survey results from across multiple years as well as a thematic analysis of themes from focus group discussions and …

Predicting Financial Failure Using The Financial Indicators "An Empirical Study On The Services Sector Companies Listed On The Palestine Stock Exchange", Dr. Khaled Hasan Zubdeh

Journal of the Arab American University مجلة الجامعة العربية الامريكية للبحوث

The objective of this study was to examine the predictability of companies' failures by developing a mathematical model consisting of a set of financial ratios. In order to reach precise scientific results, the statistical analysis (SPSS) program was used and the financial data of the companies were subjected to multiple discrimination analysis for the fiscal years 2010-2017. The study was applied to the companies of the services sector listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange, that are ten companies out of 48 public companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange in all sectors. The researcher reached to a mathematical model consisting …

Emotional Finance: The Impact Of Emotions On Investment Decisions, Leef H. Dierks, Sonja Tiggelbeck

Journal of New Finance

Emotions have a decisive influence on individual investment decisions and thus on market developments. Collective behavior, which often prevails in markets, can trigger the development of speculative bubbles as, more often than not, investors rely on trust in an attempt to reduce the uncertainty and complexity prevailing in markets. Based on the developments surrounding German financial services provider Wirecard in 2020, this contribution explains why retail and institutional investors decided to trust the company's narrative in an attempt to reduce uncertainty, despite increasingly obvious large-scale accounting inconsistencies.