Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Ceo Linguistic Stress And Abnormal Stock Returns Evidence From S&P 500 Earnings Conference Calls, Yiqi Sun

CMC Senior Theses

Stress is pervasive among corporate executives, yet its effect on firms' future abnormal return remains largely unexplored. This paper examines whether CEO's Linguistic stress exhibited during earnings conference calls predicts future abnormal stock returns. I provided a Large Language Model (Claude Sonnet 4.6) psychology-backed prompts to analyze CEO stress from linguistic patterns in 7491 earnings call transcripts from 470 companies in the S&P 500 during 2020-2024. I found three main results. First, the CEO linguistic stress is negatively and significantly associated with the immediate market reaction, with a one-unit increase in stress score associated with a 0.9% decrease in the …

Procedural Rhetoric And Prosociality: How Game Mechanics Shape Altruistic Decision-Making, Elijah Emory-Muhammad

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates how different prosocial video game designs influence subsequent altruistic behavior, specifically comparing interactive narratives with procedural rhetoric. While prior research demonstrates that prosocial games can prime helpful behaviors, less is known about the underlying mechanical structures driving these effects. Fifteen participants engaged with either an Interactive Narrative Game (ING) or a Procedural Rhetoric Game (PRG) before completing a resource allocation task (Dictator Game). Results revealed no statistically significant differences between the two conditions in promoting sacrificial altruism or satisfying basic psychological needs. Instead, participants across both groups demonstrated a strong adherence to an equality-seeking norm, consistently choosing …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Beginner's Luck: The Impact Of Early Wins On Long-Term Gambling Patterns, Jasmine Tan

CMC Senior Theses

The legalization of online sports gambling has rapidly expanded access to gambling platforms, raising concerns about its potential impacts on gambling behavior and addiction. This study investigates whether early wins in online sports gambling predict sustained gambling engagement. Using longitudinal data from 46,339 subscribers to online gambling site bwin Entertainment, we analyzed the gambling activity of new sports bettors over 18 months. Gamblers were categorized based on early outcomes (losses, break-even, small wins, and big wins), and engagement was measured by total bets placed, total gambling days, total stakes after the first three days, and frequency of play. Interaction terms …

From Pixels To Proposals: Exploring The Effects Of Empathy And Immersion On Economic And Moral Decision - Making In Video Games, Alex Dien

CMC Senior Theses

This study explores the role of immersive environments, specifically video games, in shaping empathy and decision-making during economic exchanges like the Ultimatum Game. Traditional economic models emphasize rationality, but more recent research highlights the influence of emotions and empathy on decision-making. Using a 2x2 between-subjects design, this proposed study will investigate how varying levels of immersion (active gameplay versus passive observation) and fairness of offers (fair versus unfair) affect participants' responses to non-human characters (NPCs). I plan to recruit eighty participants, aged 18-25, to engage with a video game, Red Dead Redemption 2 (Rockstar Games, 2018) either through playing or …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

Just As Advertised: The Perception And Effectiveness Of Artificial Intelligence In Digital Advertising, Brandon Isem Cáceres

CMC Senior Theses

What do you think when you hear “AI in advertising”? Does it spark intrigue, or does it feel like just another tech buzzword? In today’s fast-paced digital marketing landscape, connecting with consumers is a high-stakes challenge, and artificial intelligence is at the forefront of innovation. From automating campaigns to creating hyper-targeted content, AI promises efficiency and precision—but how do audiences perceive this shift? By analyzing key performance indicators (KPIs) like impressions, click-through rates, and cost-per-click in an an original A/B test, this thesis evaluates the perception and effectiveness of AI-driven advertising strategies. Combining historical insights, case studies, and an original …

You Lose, You Lag: Evidence From 2020 And 2024 On U.S. Partisan Bias, Presidential Election Defeat, And Perceived Future Real Income, Brandon O. Felix

CMC Senior Theses

Recent presidential elections, in particular the two most recent ones, have revealed striking partisan divides, not only in political attitudes but also in household economic expectations. This study investigates how partisan electoral loss shapes perceived changes in real income across income groups, using data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers surrounding the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. I employ ordered logistic regression models for the baseline models and generalized ordered logistic regression models for those models with pertinent demographic controls in order to analyze the probability of respondents expecting real income losses, stability, or gains, respectively. Generating …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

Happy Teams: Utilizing Remote Data Entry Work To Understand The Relationship Between Team Gender Composition, Team Performance, And Worker Satisfaction, Laura Zimmer

CMC Senior Theses

The following study contributes to existing scholarship surrounding the relationship between gender and teamwork. My experiment aims to build on how gender impacts team members' success, emotions, and overall experience by randomly pairing individuals in two-person remote teams, to complete data entry tasks together. Teams work together remotely to complete tasks rating Chicago roads. Pre and post-teamwork surveys were completed by individuals surrounding their emotions and experience working with their partner. My results demonstrate that single-gender female teams report the highest increases in happiness while working in teams. Individuals were found to rate partners of their same gender more highly …

Mental Imagery Contributes To Loss Aversion By Amplifying Negative Emotions, Daniel Kroshchuk

CMC Senior Theses

Defined as the experience of sensory information without the presence of external stimuli, mental imagery is thought to play a role in memory, emotional regulation, and decision-making. Recent studies suggest that mental imagery varies widely across the general population, with approximately 2-4% of individuals having a reduction or complete absence of visual imagination, a phenomenon known as aphantasia. Individuals with aphantasia show reduced emotional arousal to fear-inducing imagery, raising the question of how variation in imagery affects cognitive processes that are influenced by emotion. Specifically, in economic decision-making it has been shown that the prospect of loss triggers negative emotions, …

Playing To Win: The Effects Of Implementing Gamification Strategies In Product Marketing, Sabrina Stone

CMC Senior Theses

Let’s play a game. What effect do you think video games have on twenty-first-century marketing? In this age defined by its nature of digitality, capturing the attention of consumers is an arduous competition. Through market segmentation, research, and the observable variables of consumer behavior, product marketing has turned to video games as a solution to appeal to younger demographics. Gamification is an increasingly applied product marketing strategy employed to increase favorable metrics. Of those key performance indicators (KPIs), boosted measures such as click-through rates, impressions, and engagement rates suggest that gamification is a strategic opportunity to persuade consumers to take …

Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello

CMC Senior Theses

I examine how recessions and the business cycle impact the time individuals allocate to altruism, using American Time Use Survey data from 2002-2019. The aim of the paper was to create a measure of altruism to explore changes in attitudes towards charity and altruism instead of the financial ability to do so. Additionally, I want to understand how economic shocks, such as recessions, impact behaviors and habits across the US population. Using ordinary least squares and the Tobit model, I created two models to capture both changes during and after recessionary periods. The first model is a regression of individuals’ …

The Lure Of Musical Comfort: An Analysis Of How Consumer Preferences In Popular Music Change Depending On The State Of The U.S. Economy Using Billboard Hot 100, Spotify Api, & Economic Data, Lindsey A. Larson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines data from Spotify’s Web API for all songs that have been on the Billboard Hot 100 chart from the first chart’s release in August 1958 to May 2021 to determine the relationship between music misery and economic misery. Twelve dependent variables– duration, danceability, energy, key, acousticness, speechiness, mode, loudness, instrumentalness, liveness, valence, and tempo– are used to measure the impact of Arthur Okun’s U.S. economic misery index on each characteristic. Using 12 individual linear regressions– one for each dependent variable– I find that during times of increased economic hardship, consumers are likely to choose to listen to …

The Influence Of Political Party Affiliation And Park Accessibility On Covid-19 Case Incidence, Sascha Wolf-Sorokin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the joint effect of political party affiliation and the urban landscape, as measured by access to parks, on case rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. Presidential Election returns are used as a proxy for a county’s political party affiliation prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A county population’s spatial relationship to its parks encapsulates the green open space within an urban environment. The data set controls for features of the built environment, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (race, gender, income, education), COVID-19 government regulations, and presidential election returns. Using …

Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the differences between probability matchers and utility maximizers in their preferences for information sources in a lab environment. In this paper, we consider the best source of information to be the most connected one. We conducted several linear probability model type regressions along with logit regressions. Furthermore, we also attempted to control and fix any potential misclassifications in classifying the cognitive strategy by using instrumental variables. The results show that utility maximizers will almost always choose the most informed node. Probability matchers, on the other hand, do not exhibit such a behavior as the probability matching strategy …

A Network Pandemic: Exploring The Effects Of Social Connectedness On The Spread Of Covid-19 In The United States, Mrinalini Bhushan

CMC Senior Theses

Social interactions influence the way we think and act. Recent literature on COVID-19 and social connectedness explores how social interactions influence people’s perceptions of the risk from COVID-19 and their behaviors. This paper seeks to investigate how social connectedness, political ideologies, and physical interaction are associated with local COVID-19 case and death rates at the US county level. Social connectedness, as defined by (Bailey et al, 2018) measures connectedness between US counties based on Facebook friendship links. I examine whether a county’s average social connectedness to other counties, as determined by the Facebook index, has an impact on its own …

Not From My Wallet: Mental Accounting For Peer-To-Peer Digital-Payments, Jason Saltzman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examined the presence and scope of mental accounting biases for peer- to-peer digital-payment systems (Venmo, PayPal, and Zelle) that have gained popularity in recent years. Payment mechanism related biases have implications for both consumers and retailers. The experimental study in this paper looked at different aspects of biases including how participants evaluate and account for money transferred through peer-to- peer digital-payment, if participants treat this money as completely fungible, and if treatment of this money is affected by demographic variables. Participants in the study were split into two treatments that differed only in regard to the account (peer-to-peer …

Counterfactual Conditional Analysis Using The Centipede Game, Ahmed Bilal

CMC Senior Theses

The Backward Induction strategy for the Centipede Game leads us to a counterfactual reasoning paradox, The Centipede Game paradox. The counterfactual reasoning proving the backward induction strategy for the game appears to rely on the players in the game not choosing that very same backward induction strategy. The paradox is a general paradox that applies to backward induction reasoning in sequential, perfect information games. Therefore, the paradox is not only problematic for the Centipede Game, but it also affects counterfactual reasoning solutions in games similar to the Centipede Game. The Centipede Game is a prime illustration of this paradox in …

Love At First Byte: An Economic Analysis Of The Internet Dating Apocalypse, Hamsa Srikanth

CMC Senior Theses

We’re often warned that the internet will hasten the dating apocalypse. The internet (it is posited) is depriving us of the elusive in-person magic, and modern courtship is now little more than love at first byte.

There remains uncertainty, however, about what the independent impact of the internet on the dating market has been. Similar to the internet, the telephone also changed the way we communicate, but its effect on the dating market was mostly complementary to the 'traditional' ways of meeting – i.e. calling your school crush at home. So the question remains: Is the effect of the …

The Changing Nature Of Work, Leadership, And Organizational Culture In Future Ready Organizations, Saloni Dhir

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The relationship between individual and organizational performance is a key challenge for leaders in modern organizations, especially with the current disruption in technology and innovation. This thesis is a literature review and compilation of the relevant empirical evidence on various processes of industrial groups and organizational characteristics such as the changing nature of work, leadership, and company culture in detail. I investigate the complex challenges that millennials and organizations are facing in the current VUCA work environment as well as their potential responses to these changes. I map out the evolution of the concept of work and compare changes …

The Mall Ain’T Dead Yet! An Aristotelian Argument For The Continuation Of Physical Retail Space With The Rise Of Modern Technology, Tarah Gilbreth

CMC Senior Theses

According to Aristotle, for a human being to live their best life, that is a life that flourishes, is to live a political life. A political life is lived best in a polis , or a self - sufficient community, so therefore, the most flourishing human life is one lived in a polis . Also, for a polis to be self - sufficient, its citizens must be flourishing, so there exists a special sort of constitutive relationship between the polis and its citizens. There are certain capacities available to human beings in the polis that promote their flourishing (namely loyalty …

The Effect Of Fast Food Restaurants On Type 2 Diabetes Rates, Grace Bailey

CMC Senior Theses

This paper conducts an analysis of county level data to determine the effect of fast food restaurants on type 2 diabetes rates. Due to endogeneity concerns with respect to the location of fast food restaurants, this paper follows the work of Dunn (2010) and uses the number of interstate exits in a given county to serve as an instrument for fast food restaurants. The strength of the instrument, which is theoretically and empirically tested in this paper, imposes some restraints on the interpretation of the findings. Using the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation method, I find that the presence of fast …

Nudging Towards Social Change: The Application Of Psychology And Behavioral Economics In Promoting Responsible Consumption, Larissa Chern

CMC Senior Theses

With workplace disasters in developing countries increasingly in the news, a major question is how to encourage consumers to use corporate social responsibility as a criterion in purchasing. Distinct from environmental concerns, social responsibility is defined here with respect to the humanitarian aspects of corporate practice, including fair wages and working conditions, equitable treatment of the disadvantaged, and restriction of child labor. Although the idea of socially responsible consumption (SRC) was first identified over forty years ago, most recent research on changing consumption habits focuses specifically on environmentally responsible consumption (ERC). Combining the psychological concept of social norms with economic …

Determinants Of Organ Donor Registration Rates Among Young Americans, Syed Umar Farooq

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper I examine the factors that affect the likelihood an individual is a registered organ donor. Unlike many studies which focus on subpopulations in specific regions, I utilize national data to get a broader assessment of individuals from around the country across a number of racial and religious classifications. Using a probit model and controlling for a variety of parameters, I find that some racial and religious variables are negatively and significantly associated with organ donor registration rates, while education and being female are positively associated with organ donor registration rates. I conclude by discussing the implications of …

Revenue Incentives And Referee Propensity To Make Foul Calls In The Nba Finals, Daniel Fallon-Cyr

CMC Senior Theses

In this study I examine foul calls by NBA referees alongside the difference in aggressiveness of twelve NBA basketball teams as they compete for the Championship Title. I aim to identify referee biases that increase the likelihood of the NBA Finals ending in a later game due to league revenue incentives. My data consists of 91 individual NBA Finals games played between the 2001 and 2016 NBA Finals. After controlling for changes in play as well as the difference in aggressiveness, I find that NBA referee’s foul calls are more dependent on a call on the opposing team in situations …

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Consumer Neuroscience: A Multi-Disciplinary Approach To Marketing Leveraging Advances In Neuroscience, Psychology And Economics, Bridget E. Blum

CMC Senior Theses

For decades, neuroscience has greatly contributed to our foundational understanding of human behavior. More recently, the findings and methods of neuroscience have been applied to study the process of decision-making in order to offer advanced insights into the neural mechanisms that influence economic and consumer choices. In this thesis, I will address how customized marketing strategies can be enriched through the integration of consumer neuroscience, an integrative field anchored in the biological, cognitive and affective mechanisms of consumer behavior. By recognizing and utilizing these multidisciplinary interdependencies, marketers can enhance their advertising and promotional mix to elicit desired neural and affective …