Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Equality In Times Of Uncertainty: Economic Downturn And Body Image Messaging Toward Women, Ritsa Giannakas

Honors Theses

A vast body of literature indicates that the economy and the status of women are interlinked, with higher levels of economic well-being tending to correspond with advancements in women’s rights. However, little of this research has investigated the changes in the wellbeing of women as it pertains to their physical and mental health, especially as it pertains to exploring the impacts of economics on eating disorder rates and societal messaging toward women. This thesis investigates a novel theory linking economic uncertainty and downturn to the spread of pro-eating disorder content online, positing that economic uncertainty may coincide with a “conservative …

Adaptive Learning Gain In Asset Pricing, Sedealy Juste Lokossou

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This paper delves into the complexities of asset pricing, emphasizing the need to go beyond prevailing paradigms and constant learning gain assumptions. We examine the influence of personal experiences, adaptive learning processes, and subjective return expectations on asset pricing. By incorporating the concept of time-varying learning gain, we provide a more realistic portrayal of asset pricing. Empirical analysis reveals a consistent negative correlation between experienced real payout growth and subsequent returns, indicating counter-cyclical behavior. Our findings also support the mean-reversion hypothesis in stock returns, although caution is needed due to some scenarios lacking statistical significance. Theoretical exploration uncovers that higher …

Discrete Choice Experiments In Agricultural And Food Economics: Two Essays On Information Provision Modalities, Uncertainty Adjustment, And Hypothetical Bias, Monsoïa Arsène Juste Agossadou

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Stated discrete choice experiments are extensively used in applied economics to study preferences and valuation for new products, as well as costs and benefits of new policies and programs. Moreover, information provision experiments widely use the method to examine information effects on different outcomes. This thesis explores two methodological issues in discrete choice experiments: (i) information provision modalities and (ii) hypothetical bias. The first study examines the effect of information modality by testing the effect of using combined text script and audio clip (treatment) versus only text script (control) to convey information in discrete choice experiments. Specifically, the study elicits …

No Need For Certainty In Animal Sentience, Yew Kwang Ng

Animal Sentience

This commentary supports Crump et al.’s (2022) point that where risks to welfare are severe, strong evidence of sentience is sufficient to warrant protecting welfare. Crump et al.’s eight criteria for sentience are also useful. Flexible decision-making (5) and flexible behaviour (6) are consistent with Ng (1995). The concession that the “no-need-for-sentience” proposition is unnecessary also strengthens the importance of the target article’s conclusions.

Emotional Finance: The Impact Of Emotions On Investment Decisions, Leef H. Dierks, Sonja Tiggelbeck

Journal of New Finance

Emotions have a decisive influence on individual investment decisions and thus on market developments. Collective behavior, which often prevails in markets, can trigger the development of speculative bubbles as, more often than not, investors rely on trust in an attempt to reduce the uncertainty and complexity prevailing in markets. Based on the developments surrounding German financial services provider Wirecard in 2020, this contribution explains why retail and institutional investors decided to trust the company's narrative in an attempt to reduce uncertainty, despite increasingly obvious large-scale accounting inconsistencies.

Three Essays On Uncertainty In Social Dilemmas, Abdul Kidwai

Doctoral Dissertations

Social dilemmas are settings where the interest of the individual is at odds with those of society i.e. overharvesting in a fishery, not contributing to a public good. These dilemmas are widespread and take myriad forms with public goods and common-pool resources being the most prominent ones. The purpose of this dissertation is to examine how individual behavior is impacted by the presence of uncertainty in public goods and common-pool resources. These dilemmas exhibit two types of uncertainty, strategic and environmental. Strategic uncertainty refers to uncertainty about the actions of other individuals facing the dilemma i.e. will other individuals contribute …

Tax Uncertainty And Business Activity, Jungho Lee, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities. We develop a statewide tax-uncertainty measure (TU measure) and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty. By comparing adjacent counties across state borders, we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation (a 30% increase in the TU measure) leads to a 0.17% point per-year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years. The result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state-policy uncertainties.

Emotions, Intuitions And Risk Perception In Critical Care, Oleksandr Dubov

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The theory of decision-making as it applies to bioethics and healthcare assumes a rational decision maker: someone who knows all his alternatives, has clear preferences, can rank and weigh risks and benefits of an intervention, and always acts in his own best interests. However, the growing body of research from the field of decision science shows that, in reality, such a purely rational decision maker does not exist. Instead, patients are rational within personal or environmental constraints such as uncertainty or ambiguity in which non-rational approaches such as emotion and intuition are instrumental. This issue is particularly important in critical …

American Obesity: Rooted In Uncertainty, Institutions And Public Policy, James Woodward

Theses and Dissertations--Public Policy and Administration

Despite the efforts of policymakers, medical professionals, and other stakeholders, obesity and related health problems show no signs of receding from their record-high rates. Public policy has largely taken the form of consumer advice, (e.g., USDA’s Dietary Guidelines). Since consumers bear most of the costs associated with their obesity, the goal of obesity prevention appears to be incentive-compatible, prima facie. That is, there is no a priori case for much further policy intervention unless existing advice is deficient or consumers’ exhibit systematically poor decision-making.

My review of the literature shows that scholars have long conveyed a consistent narrative regarding …

Ethics And The Economist: What Climate Change Demands Of Us, Julie A. Nelson

Economics Faculty Publication Series

Climate change is changing not only our physical world, but also our intellectual, social, and moral worlds. We are realizing that our situation is profoundly unsafe, interdependent, and uncertain. What, then, does climate change demand of economists, as human beings and as professionals? A discipline of economics based on Enlightenment notions of mechanism and disembodied rationality is not suited to present problems. This essay suggests three major requirements: first, that we take action; second, that we work together; and third, that we focus on avoiding the worst, rather than obtaining the optimal. The essay concludes with suggestions of specific steps …

Modelling Biased Judgement With Weighted Updating, Jesse A. Zinn

Jesse A Zinn

The weighted updating model is a generalization of Bayesian updating that allows for biased beliefs by weighting the functions that constitute Bayes’ rule with real exponents. This paper shows that weighting a distribution affects the information entropy of the resulting distribution, suggesting that weighted updating can model biases in which individuals mistake the information content of data. The paper augments the base model in two ways, allowing it to account for additional biases. The first expansion involves discrimination between data. The second allows the weights to vary over time. The paper also presents a set of sufficient conditions for the …

Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry And Dixit-Pindyck Option Values Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We extend the Arrow–Fisher–Hanemann–Henry (AFHH) and Dixit–Pindyck (DP) option values to a game situation. By reinterpreting the AFHH option value as a change in the surplus from conservation because of the prospect of future information, we deal with a conceptual difficulty associated with the AFHH option value in the presence of strategic interactions. We then introduce the DP option value into a game situation. We show that the equivalence between the expected value of information and the DP option value in the standard model does not hold under strategic interactions.

Ethics And The Economist: What Climate Change Demands Of Us, Julie A. Nelson

Julie A. Nelson

Climate change is changing not only our physical world, but also our intellectual, social, and moral worlds. We are realizing that our situation is profoundly unsafe, interdependent, and uncertain. What, then, does climate change demand of economists, as human beings and as professionals? A discipline of economics based on Enlightenment notions of mechanism and disembodied rationality is not suited to present problems. This essay suggests three major requirements: first, that we take action; second, that we work together; and third, that we focus on avoiding the worst, rather than obtaining the optimal. The essay concludes with suggestions of specific steps …

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry And Dixit-Pindyck Option Values Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We extend the Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry (AFHH) and Dixit-Pindyck (DP) option values to game situations. By reinterpreting the AFHH option value as a change in the surplus from conservation because of the prospect of future information, we deal with the conceptual difficulty associated with the AFHH option value in the presence of strategic interactions. We then introduce the DP option value into a game situation. We show that the equivalence between the expected value of information and the DP option value in the standard model does not hold under strategic interactions.

Reflexivity In Financial Markets: A Neuroeconomic Examination Of Uncertainty And Cognition In Financial Markets, Steven Pikelny

Senior Projects Spring 2011

Financial markets exist to disperse the risks of an unknown future in an economy. But for this process to work in an optimal fashion, investors – and subsequently markets – must have a way to interpret uncertainty. The investor rationality and market efficiency literature utilizes a methodology inadequate to address this fact, so I supplement it with the perspectives of epistemology, economic sociology, neuroscience, cognitive science, and philosophy of mind. This approach suggests that what is commonly viewed as market “inefficiency” is not necessarily caused by investor irrationality, but rather by the inherent nature of the epistemological problem faced by …

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …

Czech Voucher Privatization: A Case Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Katia Hristova

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

In my study, I plan to analyze voucher privatization in the Czech Republic. This process is best characterized as decision making under both risk and uncertainty, where the thousands of individuals who initially received vouchers were operating under near total uncertainty while larger institutional investors who later seized control of the vouchers were operating under conditions of risk. I will analyze the resulting patterns of ownership in comparison to the goals of the process. I will also discuss the role of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank as institutions which affect the conditions under which voucher privatization was conducted. …