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Articles 1 - 30 of 172
Full-Text Articles in Behavioral Economics
What, Exactly, Is Surveillance Pricing?, Kaylina Stroud
What, Exactly, Is Surveillance Pricing?, Kaylina Stroud
McNair Summer Research Program
Surveillance pricing is a method of price discrimination in which firms use personal data to set individualized prices. While this practice is often criticized on grounds of privacy, unfairness, or exploitation, these objections do not fully explain what is morally objectionable about surveillance pricing. This paper examines surveillance pricing through the lenses of price discrimination, market competition, efficiency, exploitation, and deception. I argue that surveillance pricing is not inherently unethical merely because it results in different consumers paying different prices for the same product. Nor is it necessarily objectionable when it promotes mutually beneficial exchanges and efficient market outcomes. The …
The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante
The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante
Business and Economics Honors Papers
This paper examines whether NBA draft decisions can be better explained by incorporating non-geometric time discounting into a model of general manager decision making. Using a dataset of 285 NBA draft prospects over a 12-year period, the impact of college statistics on Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is determined, and these impact values are then used to create a “predicted” VORP for the first 4 seasons of each player’s career: a projection of what a general manager might think of a prospect’s future value given their college statistics. Following this, geometric and hyperbolic time discounting models are applied to estimate …
The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield
The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield
Economics Honors Projects
This paper examines trading reactions to quarterly earnings reports and the impact of recent monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It argues that the market, as a product of rational and irrational investor behavior, interprets firms’ financial performance within a broader macroeconomic context, affirming the causal channels found in similar studies. This study differs from prior research by looking at the recent, not simultaneous, monetary policy announcement for each earnings announcement in order to understand if the two types of information remain complementary. By conducting an event study model, this study confirms that the interaction of …
The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates
The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates
Scripps Senior Theses
Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …
The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr
The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr
Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects
This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …
Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole
Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …
Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray
Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray
Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences
The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …
Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works
Classical theories posit that risk preferences are stable across decision contexts. Two branches of empirical literature assess this claim. Structural approaches examine within-person consistency of model-based estimates of risk aversion, while “model-free” approaches examine within-person correlations of risky choices. We elucidate the latent structure underlying the model-free approach. Using this structure, we develop a new approach to assessing preference stability that has stronger testable implications, and we partially identify features of stability and heterogeneity of risk preferences. Our study illustrates a general principle: partial identification through minimal assumptions grounded in economic theory robustly bridges fully structural and model-free methods.
Revisiting Kin And Ethnic Favoritism In The Bribery Experiment, Mahsa Akbari, Duman Bahrami-Rad, Erik O. Kimbrough
Revisiting Kin And Ethnic Favoritism In The Bribery Experiment, Mahsa Akbari, Duman Bahrami-Rad, Erik O. Kimbrough
Economics Faculty Articles and Research
We report a conceptual replication of Akbari et al. (2020), who study the impact of co-ethnicity and kinship on behavior in an experimental “bribery game”. In the game, player A can offer a bribe to B, who can help A by inefficiently transferring resources from passive third-party C. We replicate the finding that by varying the relatedness of A, B and C, we can substantially modulate the willingness of A to offer the bribe and the willingness of B to reciprocate the bribe by harming C. The findings are consistent with theories of kin altruism and ethnic favoritism.
Criminal Behavior Responses To Changing Penalties: Estimating The Impact Of Felony Theft Threshold Changes, Ezra R. Simmons
Criminal Behavior Responses To Changing Penalties: Estimating The Impact Of Felony Theft Threshold Changes, Ezra R. Simmons
All Theses
This study estimates how criminal behavior changes in response to shifts in felony theft thresholds, contributing to broader evidence on the deterrent effects of criminal penalties. Using detailed incident-level crime reports, this study applies econometric techniques to evaluate how offenders responded to reduced penalties. Analyzed within is California’s Proposition 47, which raised the felony threshold for theft-related offenses from $450 to $950. The results show a significant increase in low-level shoplifting (approximately 21%) and more substantial rises (approximately 24% to 30%) in crimes within the threshold overlap ($450 to $950). Additionally, the value stolen in crimes below the $450 threshold …
Benefits Of Extended Unemployment Insurance On Post-Unemployment Outcomes, Alyssa Roche
Benefits Of Extended Unemployment Insurance On Post-Unemployment Outcomes, Alyssa Roche
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This thesis investigates how unemployment insurance (UI) affects individuals during and after unemployment. Drawing on historical evidence from recent recessions in the United States, publicly available data, behavioral insights, and mathematical modeling, it argues that the benefits of extending UI outweigh the potential costs. The analysis incorporates a wide range of sources, including empirical economic studies using regression models and psychology and business research that highlight behavioral responses to financial stress and job insecurity. By combining quantitative data with behavioral context, the thesis offers a more comprehensive understanding of how extended UI influences job search decisions, wage outcomes, and overall …
The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom
The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom
Master's Projects and Capstones
This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …
Learning Rules Under Asymmetric Information: A Cournot Market Experiment, Marshall H. Pentes
Learning Rules Under Asymmetric Information: A Cournot Market Experiment, Marshall H. Pentes
Honors Theses
I present the use of best response (BR) and imitation (IM) learning rules in experimental Cournot duopoly markets under asymmetric information. In treatment BR, one subject (called BR1) receives, after every round, information about their previous quantity choices, the previous market prices, their previous profits, the previous quantities of the the other firm in the market, and the previous Cournot best response to the quantity of the other firm. In treatment IM, one subject (called IM1) receives, after every round, information about the prior quantities of and profits of both firms in the market. The BR1 and IM1 subjects are …
The Impact On Life-Cycle Consumption, Saving, Labor Supply, And On Bequests When Individuals Possess Time-Inconsistent Preferences, Barna Bose
All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present
This study examines how the presence of time-inconsistent preferences affects a representative individual's decisions about how much to consume, to save, and how intensively to work, in addition to the size of a bequest to leave behind at death. The model is used to analyze the behavior of both time-inconsistent individuals (characterized by a hyperbolic discount function) and the behavior of time-consistent individuals (characterized by an exponential discount function). The model demonstrates how these two representative types of individuals make intertemporal choices over time. While the model distinguishes between time-inconsistent and time-consistent individuals with respect to using alternative discount functions, …
Analisis Kepemilikan Sertifikat Tanah Terhadap Akses Pinjaman Rumah Tangga, Abdul Azzis Azzis, Chaikal Nuryakin
Analisis Kepemilikan Sertifikat Tanah Terhadap Akses Pinjaman Rumah Tangga, Abdul Azzis Azzis, Chaikal Nuryakin
Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi
This study aims to examine the impact of land certificate ownership on access to loans from formal financial institutions. Utilizing data from Indonesia in 2018, we employ logistic regression analysis to investigate the relationship between land certificate ownership and loan access in the country. The examination of land certification in relation to loan access, by distinguishing types of land ownership evidence and loan types, is deemed essential. The findings indicate that the impact of land certification is less effective for low-income households. Beyond ensuring accessible and affordable land certification processes, the government should formulate policies for innovative loan schemes, such …
What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider
What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider
Undergraduate Theses
The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust …
Undominated Monopoly Regulation, Debasis Mishra, Sanket Patil
Undominated Monopoly Regulation, Debasis Mishra, Sanket Patil
Working Papers
We study undominated mechanisms with transfers for regulating a monopolist who privately observes the marginal cost of production. A mechanism is undominated if no other mechanism gives the regulator a strictly higher payoff at some marginal cost of the monopolist without lowering the regulator’s payoff at other costs. We show that an undominated mechanism has a quantity floor: whenever the monopolist is allowed to operate, it produces above a threshold quantity. Moreover, the regulator’s operation decision is stochastic only if the monopolist produces at the quantity floor. We provide a near-complete characterization of the set of undominated mechanisms and use …
On Strategy-Proofness And The Salience Of Single-Peakedness In A Private Goods Allotment Problem, Shurojit Chatterji, Jordi Masso, Shigehiro Serizawa
On Strategy-Proofness And The Salience Of Single-Peakedness In A Private Goods Allotment Problem, Shurojit Chatterji, Jordi Masso, Shigehiro Serizawa
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider strategy-proof rules operating on a rich domain of preference profiles in a set up where multiple private goods have to be assigned to a set of agents with entitlements and where preferences display satiation. We show that if the rule is in addition tops-only, same-sided and individually rational with respect to the entitlements, then the preferences in the domain have to satisfy a variant of single-peakedness (referred to as multi-dimensional single-peakedness relative to the entitlements). We also provide a converse of this main finding. It turns out that this domain coincides with the one already identified in a …
Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey
Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey
All Theses
This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …
The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti
The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti
Journal of Strategic and Global Studies
Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …
Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor
Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.
Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov
Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi
Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …
On The Stability Of Norms And Norm-Following Propensity: A Cross-Cultural Panel Study With Adolescents, Erik O. Kimbrough, Erin L. Krupka, Rajnish Kumar, Jennifer M. Murray, Abhijit Ramalingam, Sharon Sánchez‑Franco, Olga L. Sarmiento, Frank Kee, Ruth F. Hunter
On The Stability Of Norms And Norm-Following Propensity: A Cross-Cultural Panel Study With Adolescents, Erik O. Kimbrough, Erin L. Krupka, Rajnish Kumar, Jennifer M. Murray, Abhijit Ramalingam, Sharon Sánchez‑Franco, Olga L. Sarmiento, Frank Kee, Ruth F. Hunter
Economics Faculty Articles and Research
Norm-based accounts of social behavior in economics typically reflect tradeoffs between maximization of own consumption utility and conformity to social norms. Theories of norm-following tend to assume that there exists a single, stable, commonly known injunctive social norm for a given choice setting and that each person has a stable propensity to follow social norms. We collect panel data on 1468 participants aged 11–15 years in Belfast, Northern Ireland and Bogotá, Colombia in which we measure norms for the dictator game and norm-following propensity twice at 10 weeks apart. We test these basic assumptions and find that norm-following propensity is …
Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin
Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin
Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses
This paper seeks to examine and provide a possible explanation for economic anomalies in Hong Kong following its handover to China. Hong Kong was on a 99-year lease to the United Kingdom from China before being handed back over July 1st, 1997. Due to the “one country, two systems” policy espoused in the handover agreement that was to be implemented for fifty years, this event marks a rare natural experiment of a peaceful regime change without a significant change in governance. This paper seeks to understand the impact of the act of regime change on selected key macroeconomic …
Interviews In Global Catholic Studies: Matthew Eggemeier And Peter Fritz, Mathew N. Schmalz, Matthew Eggemeier, Peter Joseph Fritz
Interviews In Global Catholic Studies: Matthew Eggemeier And Peter Fritz, Mathew N. Schmalz, Matthew Eggemeier, Peter Joseph Fritz
Journal of Global Catholicism
No abstract provided.
Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata
Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …
External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator
External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …
Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman
Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks
Journal of New Finance
Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …