Behavioral Economics Commons^™

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Ceo Linguistic Stress And Abnormal Stock Returns Evidence From S&P 500 Earnings Conference Calls, Yiqi Sun

CMC Senior Theses

Stress is pervasive among corporate executives, yet its effect on firms' future abnormal return remains largely unexplored. This paper examines whether CEO's Linguistic stress exhibited during earnings conference calls predicts future abnormal stock returns. I provided a Large Language Model (Claude Sonnet 4.6) psychology-backed prompts to analyze CEO stress from linguistic patterns in 7491 earnings call transcripts from 470 companies in the S&P 500 during 2020-2024. I found three main results. First, the CEO linguistic stress is negatively and significantly associated with the immediate market reaction, with a one-unit increase in stress score associated with a 0.9% decrease in the …

Procedural Rhetoric And Prosociality: How Game Mechanics Shape Altruistic Decision-Making, Elijah Emory-Muhammad

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates how different prosocial video game designs influence subsequent altruistic behavior, specifically comparing interactive narratives with procedural rhetoric. While prior research demonstrates that prosocial games can prime helpful behaviors, less is known about the underlying mechanical structures driving these effects. Fifteen participants engaged with either an Interactive Narrative Game (ING) or a Procedural Rhetoric Game (PRG) before completing a resource allocation task (Dictator Game). Results revealed no statistically significant differences between the two conditions in promoting sacrificial altruism or satisfying basic psychological needs. Instead, participants across both groups demonstrated a strong adherence to an equality-seeking norm, consistently choosing …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Beginner's Luck: The Impact Of Early Wins On Long-Term Gambling Patterns, Jasmine Tan

CMC Senior Theses

The legalization of online sports gambling has rapidly expanded access to gambling platforms, raising concerns about its potential impacts on gambling behavior and addiction. This study investigates whether early wins in online sports gambling predict sustained gambling engagement. Using longitudinal data from 46,339 subscribers to online gambling site bwin Entertainment, we analyzed the gambling activity of new sports bettors over 18 months. Gamblers were categorized based on early outcomes (losses, break-even, small wins, and big wins), and engagement was measured by total bets placed, total gambling days, total stakes after the first three days, and frequency of play. Interaction terms …

From Pixels To Proposals: Exploring The Effects Of Empathy And Immersion On Economic And Moral Decision - Making In Video Games, Alex Dien

CMC Senior Theses

This study explores the role of immersive environments, specifically video games, in shaping empathy and decision-making during economic exchanges like the Ultimatum Game. Traditional economic models emphasize rationality, but more recent research highlights the influence of emotions and empathy on decision-making. Using a 2x2 between-subjects design, this proposed study will investigate how varying levels of immersion (active gameplay versus passive observation) and fairness of offers (fair versus unfair) affect participants' responses to non-human characters (NPCs). I plan to recruit eighty participants, aged 18-25, to engage with a video game, Red Dead Redemption 2 (Rockstar Games, 2018) either through playing or …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

Just As Advertised: The Perception And Effectiveness Of Artificial Intelligence In Digital Advertising, Brandon Isem Cáceres

CMC Senior Theses

What do you think when you hear “AI in advertising”? Does it spark intrigue, or does it feel like just another tech buzzword? In today’s fast-paced digital marketing landscape, connecting with consumers is a high-stakes challenge, and artificial intelligence is at the forefront of innovation. From automating campaigns to creating hyper-targeted content, AI promises efficiency and precision—but how do audiences perceive this shift? By analyzing key performance indicators (KPIs) like impressions, click-through rates, and cost-per-click in an an original A/B test, this thesis evaluates the perception and effectiveness of AI-driven advertising strategies. Combining historical insights, case studies, and an original …

You Lose, You Lag: Evidence From 2020 And 2024 On U.S. Partisan Bias, Presidential Election Defeat, And Perceived Future Real Income, Brandon O. Felix

CMC Senior Theses

Recent presidential elections, in particular the two most recent ones, have revealed striking partisan divides, not only in political attitudes but also in household economic expectations. This study investigates how partisan electoral loss shapes perceived changes in real income across income groups, using data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers surrounding the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. I employ ordered logistic regression models for the baseline models and generalized ordered logistic regression models for those models with pertinent demographic controls in order to analyze the probability of respondents expecting real income losses, stability, or gains, respectively. Generating …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

Improving American Men's Quality Of Life By Economically Empowering American Women, Margot Rosenblatt

Scripps Senior Theses

In this paper, I explore the relationship between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality of life in the United States. I created an index of women’s economic empowerment based on county-level data on labor force participation rates, rates of pay, teen birth rates, and families in which a woman is the primary income earner. I then created an index of men’s quality of life based on financial, physical, and mental health indicators. Adjusting for income, dominant industry type, age, population density, race variables, and environmental factors, I found a statistically significant positive correlation between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality …

Happy Teams: Utilizing Remote Data Entry Work To Understand The Relationship Between Team Gender Composition, Team Performance, And Worker Satisfaction, Laura Zimmer

CMC Senior Theses

The following study contributes to existing scholarship surrounding the relationship between gender and teamwork. My experiment aims to build on how gender impacts team members' success, emotions, and overall experience by randomly pairing individuals in two-person remote teams, to complete data entry tasks together. Teams work together remotely to complete tasks rating Chicago roads. Pre and post-teamwork surveys were completed by individuals surrounding their emotions and experience working with their partner. My results demonstrate that single-gender female teams report the highest increases in happiness while working in teams. Individuals were found to rate partners of their same gender more highly …

Mental Imagery Contributes To Loss Aversion By Amplifying Negative Emotions, Daniel Kroshchuk

CMC Senior Theses

Defined as the experience of sensory information without the presence of external stimuli, mental imagery is thought to play a role in memory, emotional regulation, and decision-making. Recent studies suggest that mental imagery varies widely across the general population, with approximately 2-4% of individuals having a reduction or complete absence of visual imagination, a phenomenon known as aphantasia. Individuals with aphantasia show reduced emotional arousal to fear-inducing imagery, raising the question of how variation in imagery affects cognitive processes that are influenced by emotion. Specifically, in economic decision-making it has been shown that the prospect of loss triggers negative emotions, …

L’Économie Solidaire De Kabylie : Une Perspective Critique, Mohamed-Amokrane Zoreli

Journal of Amazigh Studies

Résumé :

Dans cet article, l’auteur réalise, pour le contexte de la Kabylie, une étude d’ensemble de l’évolution des pratiques d’économie sociale, du modèle originel jusqu’à la période actuelle, en passant par les différentes phases de colonisation puis d’indépendance. L’objectif est triple. Voir d’abord quels sont les ressorts, les mécanismes et les finalités des solidarités locales originelles et comment elles se mobilisent pour répondre à des besoins socio-économiques et politiques. Voir ensuite comment l’Etat-nation et la mondialisation ont impacté dans le temps long ces solidarités locales, en les démobilisant et immobilisant par différents moyens, juridiques, économiques et politiques. Voir enfin …

Conspicuous Wellness: How Acquired Identities Affect Conspicuous Consumption, Katherine S. Eu

Scripps Senior Theses

This research provides evidence that individuals will conspicuously consume based on their acquired identities, which parallels similar conclusions drawn for conspicuous consumption based on ascribed identities. Using data from 653 respondents, I found positive marginal effects of the “that girl” wellness identity on product choices, accounting for an individual’s potential higher willingness-to-pay, demographics, and speed of making product choices. I conclude that the more an individual associates themselves with an identity, the higher the likelihood of choosing products which align and signal membership in an identity subculture.

Neo-Whorfian Examination Of Cross-Linguistic Temporal Discounting Behavior, Piper Connelly

Scripps Senior Theses

This study examines differences in temporal discounting tendencies in German and French participants (recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk) through the lens of Neo-Whorfian cognition and the Linguistic Savings Hypothesis (Chen 2013). The LSH proposes that tendencies towards future-oriented economic decisions can be cognitively explained by literal morphosyntactic conventions of one’s native language. Our experiments (sooner-smaller/larger-later choices, endowment-investment task) failed to produce results aligning with the LSH, but uncovered the importance of controlling for risk appetite when specifically investigating intertemporal choice. There are several fruitful improvements to consider for the future, such as stricter sampling, taking richer detail of time preferences, …

Playing To Win: The Effects Of Implementing Gamification Strategies In Product Marketing, Sabrina Stone

CMC Senior Theses

Let’s play a game. What effect do you think video games have on twenty-first-century marketing? In this age defined by its nature of digitality, capturing the attention of consumers is an arduous competition. Through market segmentation, research, and the observable variables of consumer behavior, product marketing has turned to video games as a solution to appeal to younger demographics. Gamification is an increasingly applied product marketing strategy employed to increase favorable metrics. Of those key performance indicators (KPIs), boosted measures such as click-through rates, impressions, and engagement rates suggest that gamification is a strategic opportunity to persuade consumers to take …

Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello

CMC Senior Theses

I examine how recessions and the business cycle impact the time individuals allocate to altruism, using American Time Use Survey data from 2002-2019. The aim of the paper was to create a measure of altruism to explore changes in attitudes towards charity and altruism instead of the financial ability to do so. Additionally, I want to understand how economic shocks, such as recessions, impact behaviors and habits across the US population. Using ordinary least squares and the Tobit model, I created two models to capture both changes during and after recessionary periods. The first model is a regression of individuals’ …

Covid-19, Vaccines, And Decision Theory, Michael A. Lewis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this piece, I delve into some thoughts I've had about decision theory. These have been inspired by the vaccine rollout phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic. I focus on decision making under uncertainty, as it relates to the decision to get vaccinated or not.

Why Do Rich People Not Retire?, Xiya Li

Scripps Senior Theses

Work and leisure are central to the human condition. Scholars from many fields have tried to understand why Americans work so much. Many people believe that when they have enough money, they will retire. However, many people are not willing to retire even if they have enough money to do so. Most people who do not have enough money to retire do not even get any amount of leisure from their jobs. If the view that enough money directly leads to retirement is wrong, then it is time to reconsider using this logic to think of the possibility of retiring. …

The Lure Of Musical Comfort: An Analysis Of How Consumer Preferences In Popular Music Change Depending On The State Of The U.S. Economy Using Billboard Hot 100, Spotify Api, & Economic Data, Lindsey A. Larson

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines data from Spotify’s Web API for all songs that have been on the Billboard Hot 100 chart from the first chart’s release in August 1958 to May 2021 to determine the relationship between music misery and economic misery. Twelve dependent variables– duration, danceability, energy, key, acousticness, speechiness, mode, loudness, instrumentalness, liveness, valence, and tempo– are used to measure the impact of Arthur Okun’s U.S. economic misery index on each characteristic. Using 12 individual linear regressions– one for each dependent variable– I find that during times of increased economic hardship, consumers are likely to choose to listen to …

The Influence Of Political Party Affiliation And Park Accessibility On Covid-19 Case Incidence, Sascha Wolf-Sorokin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the joint effect of political party affiliation and the urban landscape, as measured by access to parks, on case rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. Presidential Election returns are used as a proxy for a county’s political party affiliation prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A county population’s spatial relationship to its parks encapsulates the green open space within an urban environment. The data set controls for features of the built environment, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (race, gender, income, education), COVID-19 government regulations, and presidential election returns. Using …

The Effect Of Female Managers On Mutual Fund Performance During Down Markets, Madison Gates, Madison I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Women in the finance industry have long been underrepresented. The mutual fund industry is no exception, with female managers in the United States falling stagnant at only 11% from 2000 to 2019. Given this low and stagnant number, this study seeks to understand if female managers impact mutual fund performance, specifically comparing down and up market periods. The data for this research was compiled from individual US mutual fund prospectus and fact sheet information in order to create a unique dataset containing the returns for every year between 2000 and 2019 as well as gender make-up, average experience, and team …

Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the differences between probability matchers and utility maximizers in their preferences for information sources in a lab environment. In this paper, we consider the best source of information to be the most connected one. We conducted several linear probability model type regressions along with logit regressions. Furthermore, we also attempted to control and fix any potential misclassifications in classifying the cognitive strategy by using instrumental variables. The results show that utility maximizers will almost always choose the most informed node. Probability matchers, on the other hand, do not exhibit such a behavior as the probability matching strategy …

A Network Pandemic: Exploring The Effects Of Social Connectedness On The Spread Of Covid-19 In The United States, Mrinalini Bhushan

CMC Senior Theses

Social interactions influence the way we think and act. Recent literature on COVID-19 and social connectedness explores how social interactions influence people’s perceptions of the risk from COVID-19 and their behaviors. This paper seeks to investigate how social connectedness, political ideologies, and physical interaction are associated with local COVID-19 case and death rates at the US county level. Social connectedness, as defined by (Bailey et al, 2018) measures connectedness between US counties based on Facebook friendship links. I examine whether a county’s average social connectedness to other counties, as determined by the Facebook index, has an impact on its own …

Not From My Wallet: Mental Accounting For Peer-To-Peer Digital-Payments, Jason Saltzman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examined the presence and scope of mental accounting biases for peer- to-peer digital-payment systems (Venmo, PayPal, and Zelle) that have gained popularity in recent years. Payment mechanism related biases have implications for both consumers and retailers. The experimental study in this paper looked at different aspects of biases including how participants evaluate and account for money transferred through peer-to- peer digital-payment, if participants treat this money as completely fungible, and if treatment of this money is affected by demographic variables. Participants in the study were split into two treatments that differed only in regard to the account (peer-to-peer …

The Name Game: The Importance Of Resourcefulness, Ruses, And Recall In Stock Ticker Symbols, Gary N. Smith, Naomi Baer, Erica Barry

Pomona Economics

Previous research reported that a portfolio of stocks with clever ticker symbols outperformed the overall market by a significant margin during the years 1984 to 2005. This paper reports the performance of those stocks during the subsequent years 2006 to 2018, and also investigates the 2006-2008 performance of a new set of clever-ticker stocks. Both clever-ticker portfolios beat the market by a substantial margin, supporting the resiliency of the clever-ticker phenomenon.

Circadian Variations And Risky Decision Making, Sana Sra

Scripps Senior Theses

Over the past decades, decision making under risk has garnered a great amount of attention both in the field of economics and psychology. Although state-dependent variabilities of risk taking are well-documented, little is known about the effects of a person’s preferred time of day, or chronotype, in risky decision making. Under circumstances of circadian mismatch (e.g., when an “early bird” makes decisions in the evening), research suggests that decision making may reflect a greater reliance on heuristics, such as using stereotypes in social judgments. However, the effects of circadian mismatch on heuristics in risky decision making are relatively unexplored. This …