Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Pooling And Winsorizing Machine Learning Forecasts To Predict Stock Returns With High-Dimensional Data, Erik Mekelburg, Jack Strauss

Finance: Faculty Scholarship

We evaluate US market return predictability using a novel data set of several hundred ag- gregated firm-level characteristics. We apply LASSO, Elastic Net, Random Forest, Neural Net, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine methods and find these models experience large prediction errors that lead to forecast failures. However, winsorizing and pooling machine learning model forecasts provides consistent out-of-sample predictability. To assess robustness, we apply machine learning methods to high-dimensional data for Canada, China, Germany and the UK as well as the Goyal-Welch data. All machine learning models we consider, except for the ensemble pooled methods, fail to significantly …

Notes And Thoughts On Retrieving Historical Members Of The S&P 500 From Wrds, Lip Hwe Tee

Research Collection Library

Retrieving all historical members or constituents of the S&P 500 can be done using Python coding on the CRSP dataset through an API connection with WRDS (Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS), n.d. -f; WRDS, n.d. -e).

Machine Learning As Arbitrage: Can Economics Help Explain Ai?, Huahao Lu, Matthew Spiegel, Hong Zhang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Machine learning algorithms have shown to be remarkably successful tools for predicting asset returns. However, the underlying economic mechanisms behind their performance remain unclear. This paper proposes a model-based dynamic arbitrage trading strategy that combines economic and statistical nonstationarity to demystify this black box. In predicting stock returns based on 153 firm characteristics (anomalies), our strategy ranks anomalies similarly to neural networks in the cross-section. Overall, it accounts for approximately 87.9 bps monthly alphas of the high-minus-low portfolios selected by neural networks in the time series. When unpublished anomalies and microcap stocks are excluded from trading, this strategy can fully …

Research On The Influence Mechanism Of Value Co-Creation On Enterprise Performance: Empirical Evidence From China's Motorsport Culture Industry, Xiaodong Weng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

We are in an era of digital economy and enterprise change management. The application of digital technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Cloud Computing, and Big Data (collectively known as ABCD technologies) has increased the competition in the value chain and value network between customers and enterprises. Users can now intervene in product design, transaction, and feedback before, during, and after the process, breaking through the limitations of time and space. They leverage their low-cost advantage to draw attention, shifting from a traditional, unidirectional supply logic to a value co-creation logic. This influences both enterprises and customers to produce …

The Downstream Impact Of Upstream Tariffs: Evidence From Investment Decisions In Supply Chains, Thorsten Martin, Clemens A. Otto

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how US manufacturing firms' investment responds to tariff reductions in supplier industries. Our estimates, based on tariff reductions following multinational trade agreements, suggest that a hypothetical 10% reduction of all upstream tariffs would increase downstream investment by 4% to 6%. This estimate is not explained by decreasing uncertainty and stems from tariff reductions for homogeneous and low-R\&D inputs, consistent with the investment response resulting from cost reductions rather than superior foreign technology embodied in imported inputs. Evidence from an instrumental variable estimation using the sudden increase in Chinese import penetration suggests that import competition also increases downstream investment.

Improving Volatility Forecasting: A Study Through Hybrid Deep Learning Methods With Wgan, Adel Hassan A. Gadhi, Shelton Peiris, David E. Allen

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

This paper examines the predictive ability of volatility in time series and investigates the effect of tradition learning methods blending with the Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP). Using Brent crude oil returns price volatility and environmental temperature for the city of Sydney in Australia, we have shown that the corresponding forecasts have improved when combined with WGAN-GP models (i.e., ANN-(WGAN-GP), LSTM-ANN-(WGAN-GP) and BLSTM-ANN (WGAN-GP)). As a result, we conclude that incorporating with WGAN-GP will’ significantly improve the capabilities of volatility forecasting in standard econometric models and deep learning techniques.

Advancing Sustainable Investing: A Deep Learning Model For Multi-Source Stock Prediction, Hongxuan Yu, Tingting Zhang, Murat Kizildag

Journal of Global Business Insights

The burgeoning role of the stock market within the national economy elevates the importance of precise stock price analysis and prediction, a field that has garnered substantial interest in academic research. Stock price fluctuations, influenced by many factors, including company fundamentals, market sentiment, capital flows, industry news, and macroeconomic policies, present a highly dynamic and complex challenge for predictive modeling. Addressing this challenge, our study introduces an innovative method that capitalizes on the synthesis of news text and stock price data for forecasting market movements. We employ GloVe embeddings to capture semantic nuances from news text and integrate them with …

Millennials’ Perception Towards Adaption And Intention Of M-Banking: Experience From A Developing Country, Noman Hasan, Md. Shahed Mahmud, Abdul Gaffar Khan, Reshma Pervin Lima, Shiblu Miah

Journal of Global Business Insights

In recent years, m-banking has been developed rapidly around the world. The research aims to measure millennials’ perception towards adaption and intention of m-banking from a developing country’s perspective. A PLS-SEM modeling approach was performed to test the hypothetical model. The empirical results reveal that perceived ease of use, perceived security and privacy, and perceived cost significantly affect the millennials’ attitude to adopt m-banking. In contrast, perceived usefulness and perceived self-efficacy have an insignificant effect. Furthermore, attitude towards adopting m-banking significantly impacts adoption and intention among millennials. Practical and theoretical implications have been identified based on the study results.

Essays On Corporate Finance, Su Hee Yun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1. The impact of ESG disasters on Green and Brown firms

I investigate the effect of a firm’s prior ESG reputation on the market impact of ESG incidents. I find that firms with a better ESG reputation, i.e., higher ESG ratings, experience less negative stock-market reactions and analysts' forecast revisions compared to firms with a poorer ESG reputation. But managers of Greener firms, when producing earnings guidance, do not forecast a lower impact of these incidents on future earnings. Similarly, actual decreases in future earnings following these incidents are not significantly different between Green and Brown firms. Altogether, the …

The Impact Of Instrumental Attribution In Ai-Enabled Monitoring On Counterproductive Work Behavior, Qiang Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

AI-enabled monitoring tools are theoretically expected to suppress unethical employee behavior. However, in practice, employees may perceive such monitoring as being driven by leaders' instrumental motives, primarily focused on personal performance evaluation and self-interest. This perception can foster feelings of job insecurity and moral disengagement, ultimately leading to counterproductive work behavior (CWB), which includes unethical employee behavior and turnover. These outcomes may undermine the intended effectiveness of AI-enabled monitoring tools. This study aims to explore the impact of Instrumental Attribution in AIenabled Monitoring (IAAIM) on CWB, specifically focusing on unethical employee behavior and turnover, through both theoretical and empirical lenses. …

Tail Risk Network Analysis Of Asian Banks, Thach N. Pham, Robert Powell, Deepa Bannigidadmath

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

This study aims to investigate the tail risk dependence of individual banks in Asian emerging markets. Using value at risk and conditional value at risk to measure tail risk and employing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to build the network, this study analysed interconnectedness at three levels: system-wide, country level and individual bank level. This study yields three key findings. First, banks in Asian emerging markets have a notably high tail risk network, particularly during more extreme market conditions. Second, the smaller and more interconnected banks are the most systemically important in the region, rather than the …

Cash Holding And Corporate Governance On Company Financial Performance: Case Study Of Construction Infrastructure Project Supporting Industries On The Indonesian Stock Exchange, Mariana Ing Malelak, Zeplin Jiwa Husada Tarigan, Sautma Ronni Basana, Ferry Jie

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

The Indonesian government currently focuses on high infrastructure development to prepare for connectivity between one city and another. The massive construction of the new government capital is also called the archipelago's capital. This condition impacts companies supporting construction projects, which are growing rapidly. This growth is supported by corporate governance and the cash-holding industry, which supports infrastructure projects for the company's financial performance. This research aims to determine the role of cash holding and corporate governance (board skill, independent director, managerial ownership) on the financial performance of infrastructure-supporting manufacturing companies in Indonesia. The sample used in this research was 83 …

Low/No-Code And Traditional Code Integration In Digital Banking, Kim Siang Yeo, Alan @ Ali Madjelisi Megargel

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper seeks to combine the merits of Low/No-Code Programming (LNCP) with Traditional Programming (TP) systems to achieve true “agility” when creating banking infrastructure. While it is easy to fall prey to Shiny Object Syndrome in today’s dynamic and fast-paced banking technology world, it is not easy to pick out the right technology for today and tomorrow’s financial industry. Instead, LNCPs allow us to hedge all bets by equally lowering the technical entry barriers for each technology. The added integration of TP, when needed, also rounds out the faults related to sole LNCP use and provides any bank with a …

Impact Of Work From Home Factors On Employee Work Engagement, Okoye Shedrach Obumneme, Muhammad Nizam Zainuddin

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The aim of the study is to examine the various work from home related factors which help in bringing about improved employee work engagement based on the work assigned to them. The study employed a quantitative research approach, positivism research philosophy, and case study research design. The study made use of 201 participants, with data collected through questionnaire and online survey tool (Google Form). Participants for the study were sampled from AmIT Global Solutions, AppCable Sdn Bhd, IWG 3.2, Regus Management Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Deventure Sdn Bhd, and Texas Instruments. Thethree hypotheses proposed in the study were examined using multiple …

A Study On The Impact Of Financial Incentives And Work Environment On Employee Motivation To Work: A Case Study Of Employees Of Paradise Estate Management Company, Okoye Shedrach Obumneme, Farha Ghapar

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The study aims to investigate the impact of financial incentives and workplace environment on employee work motivation. Individually, the study examines the impact of work allowances, employee wages, organisational culture, and internal communication on employee motivation to work in an organisation. The research employed a survey research design. The population of the study focused on the employees of Paradise Estate Management Company. A total of 79 respondents were selected from a pool of 120 employees in the organisation. The questionnaires were administered and distributed to respondents through Google Form. Multiple regression analysis was adopted to test the different hypotheses. The …

Cooperative Preschool Education In Ethnic China: Ulanqab Case Study, Yu Dong, Siow-Hooi Tan, Hway-Boon Ong

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The integrated education of family, kindergarten, and community is crucial for children’s development. However, in China’s ethnic regions, preschool education faces significant shortcomings, with limited community involvement and consideration of ethnic characteristics. This study aims to address these gaps by proposing a conceptual framework tailored for ethnic areas, focusing on the Ulanqab region. Drawing on domestic and international research, we develop a model comprising family, preschool, and community inputs, emphasising the importance of community participation. The model includes educational inputs, educational processes, and target outcomes, with the goal of improving preschool education quality. Through this research, we seek to understand …

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Healthcare Expenditures In Selected Asian Countries, Nurin Amni Aqilah Binti Cek Ahmad Azam, Mazlynda Md Yusuf

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The rising cost of healthcare in Asian countries has become a matter of concern, reflecting an extensive influence of socioeconomic factors. This study highlighted that the financial burden on healthcare systems is crucial for ensuring sustainable and equitable access to medical services. However, the impact of socioeconomic factors on healthcare expenditures varies across countries and regions. Therefore, this study seeks to determine socioeconomic factors affecting healthcare expenditures in 10 Asian countries, utilising annual data starting from 2006 to 2020. By employing panel data analysis and the model of fixed effect with a feasible generalised least squares method, the finding shows …

Convertible Bond Pricing In Chinese Transportation Industry : A Comparison Methods Between Binomial Tree Model And Black-Scholes Model, Zirui Peng, Xinrui Xinrui, Chui Zi Ong

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

One bond type that can lower financing costs for the issuer is a convertible bond. Additionally, its characteristic with option value gives investors access to high-yielding, low-drawdown, and superior investment instruments. Exactly, convertible bonds have a strong market appeal to investors. In recent years, the issuance scale of convertible bonds has continued to expand, and its share in the bond market has gradually increased. Fair pricing is essential to maintaining the convertible bond market’s smooth operation. In light of this, the convertible bonds in the transportation sector listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are chosen for this article. Following the …

The Impact Of Social Media Advertising On Online Shopping Preferences In Nilai City, Malaysia, Fatimah Az Zahra Binti Zulkifli, Shahrina Ismail, Sharifah Fairuz Syed Mohamad

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

Social media advertisements can influence consumers' purchasing preferences by impacting their awareness, attitude, trust, and intention towards the advertised products, services, or brands. This study aims to achieve two objectives: firstly, to determine the correlation between independent variables (security, privacy, product features, social influence, and promotion) and secondly, to examine the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables (online shopping purchasing preference among shoppers in Nilai). Convenience sampling was used to collect survey data, with questionnaires distributed through various online platforms to respondents residing in Nilai. A total of 272 responses were collected. The study utilized a Pearson correlation model …

Attracting Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) In Madani Economy: What Factors Matter?, Yi-Shan Chong, Chee-Lip Tee

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has long been acknowledged as a vital driver of economic development, and Southeast Asia stands out as a prime destination for such investments. However, Malaysia's share of FDI in the region has been diminishing, signalling a loss of competitiveness. In response, the Malaysian government has prioritized enhancing competitive strength in its recent development framework, Madani Economy. This study aims to shed light on the factors that require greater attention to achieve these objectives. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and monthly data spanning from 2010 to 2019, the findings underscore the importance of growing market …

Factors Influencing Non-Performing Loans Between Islamic And Conventional Banks In Malaysia, Najwa Hanisah Mohd Azmi, Sharifah Fairuz Syed Mohamad, Shahrina Ismail

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

This study reveals the long-term effects of several variables on Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in Islamic banks (IBs) and conventional banks (CBs) in Malaysia. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique, the study supports a proactive approach and finds a persistent association between NPLs and asset quality, loan quality, unemployment rate, and inflation rate. Using the ARDL approach, the analysis covers the monthly period from 2018 to early 2021. This study aims to investigate NPLs at two different times: before and after the COVID-19 epidemic. The findings indicate that The ARDL model identifies Loan Quality 1 and 2 as significant influencers …

The Mediating Effect Of Job Satisfaction Between Organizational Learning And Job Performance, Alaa S. Jameel

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

This study aims to find the impact of organizational learning on job performance among preparatory school teachers through the mediator role of job satisfaction. A survey was conducted at six preparatory schools in Heet City, Iraq. The study employed stratified random sampling to ensure a fair representation of samples from all six schools, and a questionnaire was used to collect the data. The results from 183 valid questionnaires were analyzed using Smart-PLS, indicating that organizational learning positively and significantly impacted a teacher’s performance. Moreover, job satisfaction also showed a significant positive effect on job performance. Additionally, organizational learning has a …

Determinants Of Subjective Well-Being Of Migrants: A Systematic Review, Dombagaha Pathiranage Marian Shavini Medonka Peiris

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

The study aims to comprehensively analyze existing literature to derive insights into the determinants of Subjective Well-being (SWB) among migrants and identify underexplored areas within the research landscape, proposing directions for future studies. Utilizing the PRISMA framework, 22 relevant peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2024 were selected, excluding books, conference proceedings, and dissertations. The analysis considered factors such as publication year, geographical scope, methodology, and sector. The findings of this investigation reveal that research on migrants’ SWB is predominantly quantitative, with a significant lack of nuanced perspectives. Most studies focus on developed countries, resulting in an underrepresentation of developing …

Product Team In Transition: A Qualitative Case Study Of Team Motivation And Collaboration During Agile Adaptation, Ahmad Murtadha Abdul Wahab, Magiswary Dorasamy, Abdul Aziz Ahmad

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

Agile approaches have received organisation acceptance as effective frameworks for managing complicated projects in rapidly changing situations. This study explores the challenges of agile adaptation in product team motivation that attempted to implement the existing agile adaptation. In order to implement the agile adaptation, it is essential for the product team to make adjustments and collaborate with others. Inadequate procedures and outside factors have been identified by some studies as barriers to existing agile adaptation (Conboy et al., 2011). Although implementing an agile approach has numerous advantages, doing so can be more complex with adaption and modification processes, especially to …

Examining The Offline Shopping Preferences Of Millennial Women: A Comprehensive Review, Ilham Khalisah Binti Khairuddin, Anusuyah A/P Subbarao

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

This paper explores the offline shopping preferences of millennial women and strategies to enhance their shopping experience in malls. The study begins with an overview of offline shopping, defining shopping malls, in-store experiences, and the evolving landscape of offline shopping. It also characterizes millennial women and their unique preferences. The literature review identifies three main factors influencing offline shopping: socio-cultural, psychological, and environmental. These factors are analysed separately to understand their impact on millennial women's shopping behaviours. Additionally, the paper examines various mall strategies aimed at increasing millennial women's intention to shop offline, categorized into development, environment, and marketing & …

Understanding The Resistance Towards Apple Pay Among Malaysians, Krishna Moorthy, Yong Qing Low, Chun T'Ing Loh

International Journal of Management, Finance and Accounting

This study investigates the resistance towards Apple Pay among Malaysians. The research is supported by the Innovation Resistance Model (IRT), which offers a comprehensive framework to understand and analyze the factors that impede the acceptance and usage of technological innovations. The study utilizes a quantitative approach, employing a questionnaire survey to collect data from a sample of Malaysian consumers. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) is utilized for data analysis. The findings shed light on the specific barriers that Malaysians encounter when considering the adoption of Apple Pay, including the usage barrier, value barrier, risk barrier, tradition barrier, and image …

Climate Challenges: Central Banks In The Hot Seat – Rethinking Monetary Policy And Educational Activity, Łukasz Kurowski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Global warming poses many challenges for all economic entities. The two main challenges facing all countries are climate change mitigation and adaptation. Central banks also face difficult tasks in this context. The difficulty stems from the impact of climate change on all sectors of the economy. Central banking has to deal with the new challenges created by climate change for monetary policy, macroprudential policy, but also climate education. The aim of the article is to verify to what extent climate change is considered in the central bank’s main objective – monetary policy. Therefore, the article examines the frequency with which …

[Abstract For] Using Excel’S “Lambda” Function To Compute Modified Duration, Dollar Duration, And Bond Convexity, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo, Andrew C. Szakmary, Nancy Tran

Finance Faculty Publications

We create a modified duration function that is more accessible than Excel’s current Macaulay duration function (=DURATION) which requires several details about the bond.

The dollar duration and convexity functions are not currently available in Excel’s default functions. When these functions are copied to a second Excel file, the functions automatically become available as functions within the second file without the need for recreating the functions.

We provide instructions on how to implement the =LAMBDA function to more than just the creation of the bond application functions.

Defining Value And Measuring Roi For Expatriate International Assignments In Firms That Internationalize As Born-Global Companies, Dale Collins

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The expatriate international assignment, a time-tested tool for global organizations, is known to be expensive and fraught with risks; defining its value has proven difficult for multinational firms in the twentieth century that internationalized using multi-stage theory. Recently, born-global internationalization theory has gained momentum among emerging firms, notably technology-based firms employing expatriate assignments. This study asks, how do born-global firms define value or benefit when determining return on investment (ROI) for expatriate international assignments? Multi stage theory posits firms first establish domestic markets creating well-developed cultures and sophisticated policies designed to mitigate risk and contain costs prior to internationalizing. Born-global …

Utilizing Machine Learning To Forecast Sector-Level Equity Returns From Sector-Level Financial Ratios, Greg Kuppenheimer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Academics and equity analysts often utilize fundamental financial ratios to evaluate an industry's financial and operational performance. However, sophisticated econometric methods could be improved for estimating these ratios' importance in predicting sector-level stock return performance. To address this gap, gradient-boosted decision tree methods were applied to the WRDS sector-level financial ratio database to identify if financial ratios effectively forecast sector-level stock returns in future periods. The findings show that these ratios are predictive and economically material, both stand alone and in combination with other macroeconomic factors. Using these predictions, long and long-short sector-level portfolios were created, and most of these …