Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Who Invests In Crypto? Revealed Types And Economic Drivers Of Retail Investment, Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson, Jason Kotter

Faculty Publications

Using transaction-level data from millions of U.S. households, we provide the first comprehensive characterization of retail cryptocurrency investment. Crypto investors are distinguished not by demographics but by a latent behavioral type revealed through consumption patterns—one that also predicts higher participation in traditional equity brokerages. The economic forces driving crypto investment, including income shocks, workplace peer effects, and inflation exposure, mirror those driving traditional investment. Crucially, households whose consumption matches the crypto-investor profile are more responsive to all these drivers across both asset classes, suggesting that investor type is a more relevant distinction than asset class.

Acceptance Of Central Bank Digital Currency In Pakistan In A Modified Utaut2 Framework, Hassan Raza, Danish Siddiqui

Business Review

This study investigates the factors influencing consumer acceptance of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Pakistan by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) model. This study integrates Perceived Trust (T) as moderator and Shariah Compliance (SC) and Perceived Credibility (PC) as mediator to fit the model according to unique religious and socioeconomic context of Pakistan. After collecting data from 332 respondents were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The result of the study indicates that Use of CBDC is most affected by Performance Expectancy (PE), Effort Expectancy (EE) and Facilitating Conditions (FC). …

Proof Of Reserves: A Double-Helix Framework, Maksym Lazirko, Deniz Appelbaum, Miklos Vasarhelyi

Department of Accounting and Finance Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Cryptocurrency exchanges face increasing pressure to demonstrate reserve adequacy following platform failures, yet current Proof of Reserves (PoR) systems suffer from incomplete verification approaches that examine either on-chain or off-chain assets separately. This study introduces the Double-Helix Framework, a verification methodology that integrates on-chain blockchain analysis with off-chain consensus algorithms to provide complete assessment of exchange financial positions. The framework employs parallel verification strands that simultaneously validate blockchain-recorded transactions and off-chain financial information, creating a unified assessment mechanism that addresses the verification gaps in existing PoR systems. The framework's integration of traditional auditing principles with distributed ledger verification creates new …

Artificial Intelligence And Digital Technologies In Finance: A Comprehensive Review, Soudeh Pazouki, Mohamad Jamshidi, Mirarmia Jalali, Arya Tafreshi

Finance Faculty Publications

This study explores the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technologies on the financial technology (FinTech) industry, highlighting their role in fostering business growth, operational efficiency, and enhanced customer engagement. AI-driven strategies have unlocked new avenues for streamlining workflows, boosting productivity, and expanding financial inclusion by reaching underrepresented populations. However, these advancements also pose challenges, including navigating complex regulatory frameworks and adapting to the rapidly evolving technological landscape. This paper delves into the macroeconomic effects of AI, examining its influence on labor markets, consumer behavior, and organizational success. Furthermore, the paper discusses blockchain applications and their potential to …

Do Investors Value Firm's Application Of Cryptocurrency And Blockchain Technology?, Shensi Wang

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This paper examines how investors view a firm's involvement with cryptocurrency or blockchain technology, measured by 10-K disclosures containing the related keywords. I find that investors negatively react to the information related to cryptocurrency or blockchain in the three-day window, but the negative trend is reversed after day four. Surprisingly, the topic analysis indicates that the market reacts positively to all topics related to cryptocurrency and blockchain, except for the "competition environment," suggesting that factors outside adopting cryptocurrency or blockchain affect the negative correlations observed before.

The Value Of Cryptocurrency In An Efficient Portfolio, Bryn Taylor

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

With the recent approval of Bitcoin-backed exchange traded-funds, it is now easier than ever for mainstream investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies. This paper aims to employ the Markowitz efficient frontier model to determine the potential for cryptocurrency investment to increase the risk-adjusted performance of a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. The analysis finds that investors can expect a meaningful increase of 4.41% to the risk-adjusted performance of their portfolio when allocating 4.83% of their total investment to cryptocurrency. However, this potential increase is highly sensitive to cryptocurrency returns, volatility, and correlations to stock. As such, whether adding cryptocurrency …

From Tweets To Token Sales: Assessing Ico Success Through Social Media Sentiments, Donghao Huang, S. Samuel, Quoc Toan Huynh, Zhaoxia Wang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the advent of social network technology, the influence of collective opinions has significantly impacted business, marketing, and fundraising. Particularly in the blockchain space, Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) gain substantial exposure across various online platforms. Yet, the intricate relationships among these elements remain largely unexplored. This study aims to investigate the relationships between social media sentiment, engagement metrics, and ICO success. We hypothesize a positive correlation between favorable sentiment in ICO-related tweets and overall project success. Additionally, we recognize social media engagement indicators (mentions, retweets, likes, follower counts) as critical factors affecting ICO performance. Employing machine learning techniques, we conduct …

On The Effects Of Information Asymmetry In Digital Currency Trading, Kwansoo Kim, Robert John Kauffman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We report on two studies that examine how social sentiment influences information asymmetry in digital currency markets. We also assess whether cryptocurrency can be an investment vehicle, as opposed to only an instrument for asset speculation. Using a dataset on transactions from an exchange in South Korea and sentiment from Korean social media in 2018, we conducted a study of different trading behavior under two cryptocurrency trading market microstructures: a bid-ask spread dealer's market and a continuous trading buy-sell, immediate trade execution market. Our results highlight the impacts of positive and negative trader social sentiment valences on the effects of …

Taming The Digital Wild West: The Need To Fully Regulate The Crypto Market, Shawn Stevenson

Lewis & Clark Law Review

Despite past doubts from sophisticated investors, cryptocurrencies have fully emerged from the underground and become a hot topic in mainstream financial discussions. At its peak, the global crypto market possessed a market cap of nearly $3 trillion, with the vast amount of that value created in less than two years. But this rapid growth has also come with extreme volatility; now more than a year out from that peak, the global crypto market has shrunk to under $1 trillion and has been riddled by high-profile bankruptcies. On top of this extreme volatility, the largely unregulated crypto market has become an …

Bitcoin As A Legal Tender: The Case Of El Salvador, Ariela Samour

Honors College Theses

On September 7, 2021, President Nayib Bukele made Bitcoin a legal tender in El Salvador. This action cemented El Salvador as the first country in the world to make cryptocurrency a legal medium of exchange. As a new legal currency, Bitcoin could be used in any transaction, from purchasing a cup of coffee to paying taxes inside the country. This paper discusses the background of the decision to make Bitcoin a legal tender in El Salvador and addresses how it affects socio-economic problems. Finally, the study administered a survey to more than 300 individuals in El Salvador to investigate the …

In Search Of Cryptocurrency Failure, Donglian Ma, Jun Tu, Zhaobo Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores the determinants of cryptocurrency failure and the pricing of crypto failure risk. We document different significant market- and characteristic-based predictors for coin and token failures. The introduction of Bitcoin futures and the outbreak of COVID19 affect the importance of many predictors. Investors require extra return for bearing high failure risk of crypto assets. The return difference across high and low failure risk crypto assets is not explained by the market, size and momentum factors in the cryptocurrency market. Finally, investors benefit from diversifying into high failure risk crypto assets that is little correlated with the stock market.

Modelling Sentiment And Trader Aggressiveness In Cryptocurrency Markets: An Empirical Analysis Of The Bitcoin Limit Order Book., Angelique Nicole Huei Yin Thang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Cryptocurrency assets are inherently susceptible to social sentiment. Due to emotional contagion, extreme emotions influence and drive traders’ order execution behaviour. This study aims to empirically model the relationship between sentiment and trader aggressiveness for two types of traders: Whales and Retails. Additionally, I uncover the mediating roles of momentum, mean reversion, and market timing underpinning the dynamics of the off-chain Bitcoin market. Time series data collected from the Coinbase level 3 Bitcoin limit order book is first reconstructed to access its core structure. Next, sentiment data from Reddit is extracted and processed using an internal Natural Language Processing pipeline. …

The Economics Of Financial Scams: Evidence From Initial Coin Offerings, Kenny Phua, Bo Sang, Chi Shen Wei, Gloria Yang Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the economics of financial scams by analyzing the market for initial coin offerings (ICOs). Using data snapshots of 5,873 ICOs, we find that irregularities in ICO characteristics across listing websites predict higher scam risk and are likely intentional. These patterns are consistent with a model where malicious issuers maximize profits by using irregularities to screen for naïve investors. Almost half of the ICOs in our sample may be scams, amounting to more than U.S. $6 billion in losses. Our results draw attention to the frequent use of screening mechanisms in financial scams.

Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …

The Future Of Cryptocurrency And Blockchain Technology In Finance, Wanyi Wong, Alan @ Ali Madjelisi Megargel

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Cryptocurrencies have been all the rage in recent years, with many being drawn to their appeal as speculative investment assets. Its proponents also champion the secure and decentralised nature of the technology it is based on, called the blockchain. Given the secure nature of blockchain technology, the idea of adopting cryptocurrencies as legal tender currency has also been mooted and experimented with – with the most famous example being the Central American nation of El Salvador’s bold move to adopting the cryptocurrency Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021. In theory, this would provide a solution to the high transaction …

Evolve Path Tracer: Early Detection Of Malicious Addresses In Cryptocurrency, Ling Cheng, Feida Zhu, Yong Wang, Ruicheng Liang, Huiwen Liu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the boom of cryptocurrency and its concomitant financial risk concerns, detecting fraudulent behaviors and associated malicious addresses has been drawing significant research effort. Most existing studies, however, rely on the full history features or full-fledged address transaction networks, both of which are unavailable in the problem of early malicious address detection and therefore failing them for the task. To detect fraudulent behaviors of malicious addresses in the early stage, we present Evolve Path Tracer, which consists of Evolve Path Encoder LSTM, Evolve Path Graph GCN, and Hierarchical Survival Predictor. Specifically, in addition to the general address features, we propose …

The Role Of Disclosure In Defi Markets: Evidence From Twitter, Amanda Aw Yong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platforms use self-executing smart contracts to provide financial services and are programmed to automatically post all transactions on the public blockchain. Notwithstanding this public availability of blockchain information, DeFi platforms also aggregate these transactions and disclose the summarized blockchain information on their Twitter accounts. This paper studies whether and how voluntary disclosure of blockchain information plays a role in the transparent DeFi market. I find that the number of blockchain-related tweets is associated both with an increase in the platform’s Total Value Locked (TVL) and with an increase in the unique number of platform users. The relationship …

The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that change in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium is the single most significant predictor of Bitcoin daily return. This sentiment measure is similar to the closed-end fund discount measure as in Baker and Wurgler (2006), but more likely to reflect the excess demand from traditional investors than from blockchain specialists. Although there is a substantial variation in Bitcoin price quotes worldwide, this Grayscale premium and discount predict Bitcoin daily return for the most liquid Bitcoin exchanges. Using K-means clustering and LDA analysis, we find that this predictability is especially significant when there is a large variation in bullish and …

From Tether To Terra: The Current Stablecoin Ecosystem And The Failure Of Regulators, Mary E. Burke

Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law

The Tether controversy and Terra crash have placed stablecoins in the regulatory spotlight. Stablecoins are often portrayed as posing systemic risks to financial markets, with some pundits labelling them “the villain of the finance world.” Global regulatory bodies, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), and political leaders, including the Biden Administration, have all called for stablecoin regulation. These officials allege that stablecoins’ structure, combined with their exponential growth, pose a unique risk to global markets. Before the May 2022 Terra crash, government reports superficially treated stablecoins by exclusively focusing on asset-backed coins. Post …

The Effects Of Cryptocurrency Wealth On Household Consumption And Investment, Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di. Maggio, Mark Johnson, Jason Kotter, Emily Williams

Faculty Publications

We use bank transaction data from millions of U.S. households to:

1. Characterize retail crypto traders
2. Explore the drivers of crypto adoption
3. Examine the effect of crypto wealth on consumption and investment
4. Document spillovers of crypto wealth to the local economy

Secure Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet Supporting Stealth Address, Xin Yin, Zhen Liu, Guomin Yang, Guoxing Chen, Haojin Zhu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Over the past decade, cryptocurrency has been undergoing a rapid development. Digital wallet, as the tool to store and manage the cryptographic keys, is the primary entrance for the public to access cryptocurrency assets. Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet (HDW), proposed in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 32 (BIP32), has attracted much attention and been widely used in the community, due to its virtues such as easy backup/recovery, convenient cold-address management, and supporting trust-less audits and applications in hierarchical organizations. While HDW allows the wallet owner to generate and manage his keys conveniently, Stealth Address (SA) allows a payer to generate fresh address (i.e., …

When Will Cryptocurrency’S Winter Come To An End?, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

With the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies dropping dramatically, what is in store for the digital asset market?

The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that ongoing zero portfolio weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate in a standard Bayesian portfolio theory framework. With ten years of prior data, equity market investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to justify never having bought cryptocurrency: -10.6% per month for Bitcoin, and -19.6% per month for a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply that investors should short cryptocurrency. Optimal absolute weights are generally small but non-trivial (1-5%), frequently positive, and fairly smooth despite returns being volatile. Under a wide range of priors, the certainty equivalent …

Cryptocurrencies: Now What?, Wei Zhou, Fathurraman

Perspectives@SMU

New use cases could lead to wider adoption, but regulation and the transition to Web3 must be handled first

Regulating The Fintech Space, Jing Yang, Patrick Thng, Zhu Juntao, Kell Jay Lim

Perspectives@SMU

China gets to grips with fintech but still frowns upon cryptocurrencies. Regulation, blockchain technology, and central bank digital currencies will be under the spotlight amidst the crypto crash

Is The Crypto World Having Its Own 2008 Lehman Brothers Moment?, Eric Lim

Perspectives@SMU

Cryptocurrency markets have tumbled in recent times due to the age-old story of greed, arrogance and disregard for responsibility, writes UNSW Business School’s Eric Lim

Coinbase Global Inc. Strategic Audit, Decker Bobin

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in the U.S during 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. Coinbase’s application allows users to buy, sell, and exchange different cryptocurrencies on the open market. Cryptocurrencies are digital assets used as a medium to quickly transfer value, globally, without any middleman. Some cryptocurrencies have different technology than others, but all are based on blockchain, and cryptography. Blockchain technology allows transactions to be built into a chain that is forever accessible, hence the name “public ledger.” Cryptography is what ensures ultimate ownership, through seed phrases, and security through encryption. Coinbase has several large competitors …

Flight To Bitcoin, Gloria Yang Yu, Jinyuan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper uncovers an overlooked motivation of Bitcoin investment: investors hold Bitcoin as an asset on which government authorities have limited influence. Consistent with this motivation, we document a flight-to-Bitcoin (FTB) phenomenon whereby local demand for Bitcoin increases with local economic policy uncertainties and Bitcoin ownership shifts from centralized exchanges to decentralized wallets amid such turbulence. FTB is driven by investors’ lack of confidence in government as FTB is stronger in countries where the confidence in government is low and corruption incidents surge. Finally, a comparison with safe-haven assets further differentiates FTB from flight-to-safety.

The Analysis Of The Roles Of Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Gold As Hedge And Safe-Haven Assets On The Indonesian Stock Market Before And During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Carla A. Wijaya, Maria Ulpah

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The uncertainty due to the COVID-19 outbreak has encouraged investors to look for value hedging instruments to minimize risk, which can be in the form of hedging assets or safe-haven assets. In response to it, this study aims to find out whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold can behave as hedging and safe-haven assets before and amid the pandemic in Indonesia. The strategy is by observing the effects of volatility and return of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold on the Indonesian stock market. This study employed both quantile regression and simple linear regression models on data of daily closing price taken before …

Modeling The Impact Of Adding Cryptocurrency In A Portfolio, Ashley Pineault

Honors Theses and Capstones

This study examines the backgrounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum. How they came about, where they differ from one another in functions, and what investors believe will be a better cryptocurrency stock as an investment to include in an optimized portfolio. It will also study the impact of adding two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, into a hypothetical, optimal investment portfolio. Data collection includes the adjusted closing price of 30 diversified stocks from 2016 to 2021. Those adjusted closing prices are the beginning of determining the optimal portfolio for three separate portfolios. One has the Ethereum cryptocurrencies, the other has Bitcoin …