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Articles 1 - 30 of 126
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Impact Of Attention And Yield Curve On Term Structure Of Equity, Matthew C. Aved
Impact Of Attention And Yield Curve On Term Structure Of Equity, Matthew C. Aved
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the term structure of equity and specifically focuses on the impact of term spread and market attention. The paper builds on prior work that developed the concept by adding behavioral explanations for differences between the short-term and long-term returns while also attempting to link the term structure of equity and the bond yield curve. The study examines these influences by running t-tests and regressions on dividend strip and S&P 500 return data (1996-2017) and attention data collected by Bloomberg (2010-2017). The results provide some insight into how these variables influence short-term and long-term returns; however, limited instances …
Attention And Technical Analysis: State‑Dependent Predictability Of Cnn‑Based Stock Return Forecasts, Crystal Y. Ma
Attention And Technical Analysis: State‑Dependent Predictability Of Cnn‑Based Stock Return Forecasts, Crystal Y. Ma
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis studies how investor attention around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements affects cross-sectional return predictability measured by a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on price charts. I replicate Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu’s (2023) image-based CNN using 20-day OHLCV “price images,” train it on U.S. equities from 1993–2000, freeze the model, and apply it out of sample to 2001–2024 CRSP data. The CNN assigns each stock a weekly probability of outperforming which is then sorted into deciles that form high–minus–low (H–L) long–short portfolios at horizons of 1 to 10 trading days. For matched non-FOMC (control) weeks, the equal-weighted CNN …
Investor Reactions To Clinical Trial Outcomes: Interpreting Impacts Using Ai-Based Measures Of Investor Sentiment, Sofia K. Weinstein
Investor Reactions To Clinical Trial Outcomes: Interpreting Impacts Using Ai-Based Measures Of Investor Sentiment, Sofia K. Weinstein
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines how investors react to biotechnology firms’ clinical trial announcements and whether artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance our understanding of those market reactions. Using a representative sample of 95 firm-event observations between 2014 and 2025, the study measures cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding clinical readouts, regulatory decisions, and partnership disclosures. Event-study regressions test for heterogeneity across trial phase, therapeutic area, and textual sentiment derived from company press releases. Consistent with expectations, later-phase trials, particularly Phase II and III, produce stronger short-term abnormal returns. However, categorical variables such as phase or therapeutic area explain little of the total variation …
Market Reactions To Software M&A: Cross-Border Vs. Domestic Evidence, Aaryan Magan
Market Reactions To Software M&A: Cross-Border Vs. Domestic Evidence, Aaryan Magan
CMC Senior Theses
The software industry in the United States has seen a period of sustained merger and acquisition (M&A) activity as firms seek synergies in diverse product offerings, efficiency plays, or intellectual capital. Within this activity is also a subset of deals that comprise U.S. acquirers transacting with foreign companies. These cross-border transactions have become an integral part of M&A strategy for companies across all industries. This paper aims to gauge investor sentiment regarding cross-border M&A deals in the software industry relative to domestic M&A deals in the software industry. The event-study methodology captures Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) in two distinct event …
The Emergence Of Buy Now Pay Later Platforms: A Business Analysis Study, Asher Frye
The Emergence Of Buy Now Pay Later Platforms: A Business Analysis Study, Asher Frye
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis dives into the growth of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing and its implications for consumer financial health. Using Affirm’s 2019-2024 data and recent reporting from regulators, it documents strong BNPL expansion alongside emerging concerns about repayment risk and credit score impacts. These insights motivate me to conduct an experiment testing whether clearer disclosure affects consumer BNPL choices. While the experiment shows no statistically significant effects, it underscores the need for further study of BNPL understanding and consumer behavior.
Auditor Independence And Its Impact On Debt Financing Outcomes, Harry Zhou
Auditor Independence And Its Impact On Debt Financing Outcomes, Harry Zhou
CMC Senior Theses
This study investigates whether perceived auditor independence, proxied through proportions of non-audit service fees and client dependence of the auditor, is associated with the outcome of debt contracts. While prior research examines how these proxies relate to auditor independence itself, and other strands of literature assess how audit quality influences debt contracting, few studies evaluate whether lenders interpret auditor independence signals in ways consistent with auditors. This study aims to contribute to the broader literature by examining the auditor independence proxies and its direct relationship to debt contract structure holistically. Two OLS models were employed to investigate the relationship between …
Do The Oscars Move Markets? Best Picture Recognition And Public Equity Responses, Avi Dayani
Do The Oscars Move Markets? Best Picture Recognition And Public Equity Responses, Avi Dayani
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines when culturally salient events become financially material by testing whether Academy Awards recognition is reflected in public equity markets. The central question is whether Best Picture nomination announcements and wins generate abnormal returns or abnormal trading activity for the publicly traded parent firms linked to nominated films, and whether those responses depend on the firm’s exposure to filmed entertainment. I study Best Picture nominees from 2000 through 2024, map each film to the public parent of its primary distributor, and construct a firm-by-Oscar-year sample of 119 observations. Using an event-study framework, I calculate abnormal returns as firm …
Audit Fee Spillovers Following Sec Scrutiny: Evidence From Auditor Portfolio Effects, Rakhshaan R. Adamjee
Audit Fee Spillovers Following Sec Scrutiny: Evidence From Auditor Portfolio Effects, Rakhshaan R. Adamjee
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines whether audit firms reprice clients that are not under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) review when a greater share of the auditor’s other clients face SEC scrutiny. Results indicate economically meaningful pricing spillovers. In the full sample, a ten-percentage-point increase in auditor-level exposure is associated with approximately 2% higher fees for non-scrutinized clients. The effect is stronger for Big Four networks: the Big Four slope is about 3.6% per ten points, and a Big Four only replication yields roughly 8.9%. Among Big Four, measuring exposure at the signing-office level also produces a positive but smaller association (~0.4% …
From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago
From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …
Uncovering Earnings Management In The U.S. Tech Industry: Strategies To Meet Or Just Beat Analyst Eps Expectations, Morgan Schilling
Uncovering Earnings Management In The U.S. Tech Industry: Strategies To Meet Or Just Beat Analyst Eps Expectations, Morgan Schilling
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates earnings management practices within the U.S. tech industry, focusing on firms that meet or just beat analyst EPS expectations. I specifically built off the Stubben (2010) model that used discretionary revenue to identify potential mismanagement across multiple industries. The modified model incorporates deferred revenue as well as accounts receivable to identify revenue recognition practices in an industry where subscription based revenue is highly relevant. I hypothesize that tech firms with aggressive revenue recognition strategies, particularly those with higher levels of accounts receivable, are more likely to engage in earnings management in order to meet EPS targets. A …
Better Than Blume: An Approach To Forecasting Future Stock Betas With Linear Bayesian Models And Sample-Wide Priors, Kian Shah
CMC Senior Theses
This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of stock beta forecasts by comparing the widely used Blume adjusted beta to four Bayesian regression models I developed. Stock beta, an essential measure of systematic risk, plays a crucial role in portfolio management and valuation; however, raw betas lack forecasting capabilities. While various attempts have been made to develop alternative beta forecasting models, the Blume adjustment remains the most commonly used. To evaluate this, I created four Bayesian models utilizing a single, sample-wide set of priors, simplifying the computational requirements compared to stock-specific priors. The analysis is based on daily return data for …
Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes
Optimizing Bitcoin Allocation: Predictability Of Bitcoin Portfolio Weights Through Macroeconomic Variables, Kirby Baynes
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines whether Bitcoin is a beneficial asset in a diversified, mean-variance optimized portfolio and whether its portfolio weights can be reliably predicted using macroeconomic variables. Using data from December 2013 to February 2025, the analysis applies rolling-window portfolio optimization and OLS regressions with Newey-West standard errors to test the relationship between Bitcoin allocations and a set of macroeconomic indicators. Results show that Bitcoin receives non-zero weights across portfolios and that its optimal allocation is sensitive to variables such as changes in the Credit Spread and Yield Curve. These variables were statistically significant in several models and produced meaningful …
Scaling Social Impact Bonds In The United States: Barriers, Incentives, And Policy Solutions, Angelique M. Rivanis
Scaling Social Impact Bonds In The United States: Barriers, Incentives, And Policy Solutions, Angelique M. Rivanis
CMC Senior Theses
Social Impact Bonds (SIBs) are a form of outcomes-based financing that fund social programs by shifting financial risk from the government to private investors. While SIBs have gained international traction, their long-term viability in the United States depends on structural reforms. This thesis examines two completed U.S. SIB projects, Rikers Island in New York and the Just-in-Reach project in Los Angeles, through an analysis of their design, implementation, and outcomes. While both projects focus on criminal justice, they provide context about the scalability of SIBs across multiple social policy areas.The three primary constraints are high transaction costs, limited investor interest, …
Altman Z-Score Relationship With Stock Price Performance After Layoff Announcements, Natalie Phillips
Altman Z-Score Relationship With Stock Price Performance After Layoff Announcements, Natalie Phillips
CMC Senior Theses
This paper examines the broader implications of such workforce reductions, historically prevalent in corporate environments since the advent of "new capitalism" in the late 20th century. Characterized by intense global competition, deregulation, and technological advancements, this era saw a surge in corporate downsizing as a means to enhance efficiency and competitiveness. Despite the strategic intentions, layoffs often signal underlying organizational challenges, prompting critical inquiry into their short- and long-term impacts on firm performance and investor sentiment. Central to this study is the exploration of whether a firm's Altman Z-Score, a metric predicting bankruptcy risk, influences stock price reactions following layoff …
Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov
Forecasting Equity Betas Using Option-Implied Moments, Ivan Kolesnikov
CMC Senior Theses
Traditional beta estimates are constructed from historical stock‑and‑market returns and therefore adjust only as fast as realized data accrue. This thesis investigates whether the forward‑looking information embedded in equity‑option prices can enhance beta forecasts. Using near‑end‑of‑day quotes for 236 S&P 500 firms between 2007 and 2024, I extract risk‑neutral variance and skewness, construct five alternative beta estimators (historical, option‑implied, and three hybrids), and evaluate them against realized betas over six‑, twelve‑, and twenty‑four‑month windows. Rolling‑OLS beta remains the most accurate benchmark at short horizons, yet option‑implied moments add economically and statistically significant value when systematic exposure is expected to change …
A Multiple Perspective Analysis On Urban Poverty In Developing Nations: A Case Study On Nigeria, Colonial Implications, And Modern-Day Outcomes, Julian Rivera-Williams
A Multiple Perspective Analysis On Urban Poverty In Developing Nations: A Case Study On Nigeria, Colonial Implications, And Modern-Day Outcomes, Julian Rivera-Williams
CMC Senior Theses
This paper will dissect urbanization and poverty in Nigeria as a case study of the challenges of underdevelopment and the lingering effects of colonialism in Africa. To draw a complete understanding of challenges faced by developing nations facing systemic underdevelopment, high poverty, and low productivity– nations like Nigeria, my research will uncover colonial impacts and post-colonial policies that initiated urban poverty and underdevelopment outcomes we see today. The purpose of my thesis is to encompass existing fragmented academia on the causes and consequences of underdevelopment and connect historical implications to current impacts of global development today including the influence of …
The Public Face Of Private Credit: Performance Dynamics In Business Development Companies, Russell Kuan
The Public Face Of Private Credit: Performance Dynamics In Business Development Companies, Russell Kuan
CMC Senior Theses
This study examines the performance dynamics of public Business Development Companies (BDCs) – a unique and growing component of the private credit market that bridges public and private financing. Publicly traded BDCs provide critical capital to underserved middle-market firms, while giving investors access to private credit opportunities. Using a hand-pulled dataset derived from 10-K filings and supplemental sources, this research identifies the key financial and operational factors driving BDC performance, with a focus on senior secured loan allocations, portfolio yield, and leverage strategies. The findings reveal that portfolio yield and senior secured loan allocations are significant predictors of total returns …
Betting Against All Betas: Do Fama-French-Carhart Factors Share The Beta Anomaly?, Kevin Jiang
Betting Against All Betas: Do Fama-French-Carhart Factors Share The Beta Anomaly?, Kevin Jiang
CMC Senior Theses
Frazzini and Pedersen’s (2013) Betting Against Beta is an investment strategy that exploits a well-documented anomaly in the Capital Asset Pricing Model. This anomaly is called the beta anomaly, which states that the model overestimates the risk-adjusted returns of high-beta assets and underestimates the risk-adjusted returns of low-beta assets. According to the beta anomaly, betas and alphas should be negatively correlated. Frazzini and Pedersen prove that an investor is able to generate positive abnormal returns by holding a long position in low-beta assets and a short position in high-beta assets. They also show that their Betting Against Beta factor delivers …
Sector-Specific Volatility Management: Evidence From U.S. Equity Industry Portfolios, Ryan Enney
Sector-Specific Volatility Management: Evidence From U.S. Equity Industry Portfolios, Ryan Enney
CMC Senior Theses
Within this paper I examine the performance of volatility management across ten U.S. equity industry portfolios. This research is motivated by Moreira and Muir’s (2017) findings, which show that scaling exposure inversely with realized volatility increases Sharpe ratios. I evaluate four distinct volatility-management techniques: one-month realized variance, one-month realized volatility, six-month exponentially weighted moving average of realized volatility (EWMA), and GARCH forecasted one-month volatility. I find that volatility-managed industry portfolios statistically and economically increase Sharpe and Sortino ratios in direct comparison to their unmanaged counterparts. The EWMA strategy provides the most robust performance after accounting for practical transaction costs and …
Navigating New Capital Sources: Financing Constraints And The Growth Of Private Credit, David George Mathias Jr.
Navigating New Capital Sources: Financing Constraints And The Growth Of Private Credit, David George Mathias Jr.
CMC Senior Theses
The rapid growth of private credit—non-bank lending where firms receive funds directly from private lenders like asset managers, private equity firms, and institutional investors—has reshaped corporate financing dynamics. This paper examines how private credit influences firm financing constraints and macroeconomic risk through the use of a dataset consisting of private credit deals, firm-level financial metrics, and macroeconomic indicators from 1995 to 2023. Regression analysis reveals that private credit has an insignificant effect on financing constraints as it generally acts as a substitute for traditional financing and a counterforce to tightening bank policies. However, a significant relationship emerges between private credit …
Unlocking Value Or Signaling Trouble? Exploring The Determinants Of Immediate Market Reactions To Underwater Employee Option Exchanges, Riley Lai
CMC Senior Theses
Whether employee option exchanges are an effective process to ensure a firm’s future outlook is vital for companies to consider. Evaluating the impact of these exchanges on firm value and shareholder wealth can provide insights for companies to align employee incentives with shareholder interests. This paper seeks to determine a definitive correlation between employee option exchange announcements and positive or negative abnormal returns over the announcement window. The focus is on the regulatory environment post-Section 409A, a provision in the Internal Revenue Code that prohibits the issuance of in-the-money employee stock options. This paper fills a significant gap in the …
National And Regional Bank Deposits And Their Relationship To The Stock Market, Joseph Zhong
National And Regional Bank Deposits And Their Relationship To The Stock Market, Joseph Zhong
CMC Senior Theses
Institutional investors started using bank deposits as a Leading Economic Indicator to predict stock market returns. I find that bank deposits lead stock market returns by 2 weeks at the national level. Examining the mechanism through which bank deposits affect stock market returns, existing literature postulates the Bank Deposit Lending Channel: increased bank deposits increase financial liquidity, powering and leading stock market returns. I do not find evidence for the Bank Deposit Lending Channel. In my regional analysis, I find that bank deposit behavior differs drastically between US regions. In general, regional bank deposits still lead stock market returns. In …
The Pricing Of Forecast-Based Earnings Uncertainty In Equity Markets, Brenda G. Galvan
The Pricing Of Forecast-Based Earnings Uncertainty In Equity Markets, Brenda G. Galvan
CMC Senior Theses
This paper constructs a firm-level measure of earnings forecast uncertainty by adapting the macroeconomic methodology of Jurado et al. (2015) to micro-level financial statement data from Compustat and CRSP. Using a two-stage estimation procedure, I first forecast the scaled year-over-year changes in earnings, defined as the change in income before extraordinary items normalized by firm sales,based on lagged firm fundamentals. I then model the squared forecast errors to extract the unpredictable component of earnings variation, generating a forward-looking, firm-specific measure of ex-ante uncertainty. Empirically, I examine whether this forecast uncertainty measure is priced in equity markets by regressing future stock …
Startup Equity To Stock Exchange: Key Drivers In Venture-Backed Ipo Journeys, Aryaman Shiv Khosla
Startup Equity To Stock Exchange: Key Drivers In Venture-Backed Ipo Journeys, Aryaman Shiv Khosla
CMC Senior Theses
This study investigates the components that shape the probability of a venture capital (VC) backed company’s ability to transition from private to public markets through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The study employs logistic regression models to analyze firm-specific and funding-related determinants of IPO likelihood. Key predictors in this study include total VC funding, number of VC rounds, average deal size growth, size of first round, average days between rounds, company age, number of employees, and primary industry sector. The findings reveal that higher total funding increases IPO likelihood, highlighting the critical role of robust capital access in fueling growth …
The Effect Of The Tcja And Cares Act On Charitable Contributions And The Financial Health Of The Nonprofit Sector, Nathanio A. Bright
The Effect Of The Tcja And Cares Act On Charitable Contributions And The Financial Health Of The Nonprofit Sector, Nathanio A. Bright
CMC Senior Theses
This thesis examines the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act of 2020 on charitable contributions and nonprofit financial health. The standard deduction increase introduced by the TCJA disincentivized middle to low-income earners from making contributions. In March 2020, Congress temporarily increased the AGI limit on charitable deductions while simultaneously offering an above-the-line deduction for all U.S. taxpayers. While earlier studies have analyzed the effect of the TCJA in disincentivizing charitable contributions, no study has examined the moderating effect of the TCJA and CARES Act in affecting contributions …
Corporate Decision-Making: Three Essays In Applied Finance, Mohamed Ahmed Abd El Rahman Ahmed Khashbah
Corporate Decision-Making: Three Essays In Applied Finance, Mohamed Ahmed Abd El Rahman Ahmed Khashbah
CGU Theses & Dissertations
Corporate Decision-Making: Three Essays in Applied Finance.By Mohamed Ahmed Abd El Rahman Ahmed Khashbah Claremont Graduate University: 2024 This dissertation consists of three distinct chapters, each focusing on a different topic. Chapter 1 of this dissertation investigates the relative effectiveness of earnings and cash flows as predictors in corporate decision-making processes within the U.S. financial market. Drawing on two decades of comprehensive financial data from Compustat, encompassing the years 2000 to 2019 and involving 18,595 firm-year observations across 980 diverse companies, this study employs a robust methodological framework. Advanced statistical techniques, including regression and correlation analyses, alongside firm-specific time-series and …
Revolutionizing Lithium Extraction: Analysis Of Factors Affecting Commercialization Timelines With Insights From The Shale Gas Boom, Bilge Tayyar
CMC Senior Theses
This study draws parallels between Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and hydraulic fracturing to highlight the transformative potential of DLE technology in the lithium industry. The comparative analysis supports the hypothesis that DLE might expedite commercialization timelines, similar to the effect hydraulic fracturing has had on traditional shale gas extraction. The study includes a regression analysis to determine the factors affecting the commercialization of conventional lithium brine extraction methods, thereby better understanding the potential changes DLE will create. The regression model, based on data from 11 projects, examines the impact of variables such as temperature range, tax rates, royalty rates, regulatory …
Unions’ Impact On Firms’ Financial Decision Making: A Look At Right-To-Work Laws And Their Impact On Firms’ Leverage Decisions, Rachana Muvvala
Unions’ Impact On Firms’ Financial Decision Making: A Look At Right-To-Work Laws And Their Impact On Firms’ Leverage Decisions, Rachana Muvvala
CMC Senior Theses
I study the impact of unions on firms’ financial decision making by exploring their capital structure, specifically leverage. I test two opposing hypotheses to understand the relationship between unions and firms’ leverage: (1) the bargaining hypothesis which suggests that firms use higher leverage as a bargaining device with unions, and (2) the crowding-out hypothesis which suggests that firms have lower leverage because unions crowd out their debt capacity due to their perceived riskiness. Focusing on the 2007 to 2022 period, I examine right-to-work (RTW) laws, since they are exogenous shocks that decrease union power in five different states. Then, I …
Owning Green: Evaluating The Effects Of Actively Managed Sustainability Fund Ownership On Esg Scores, Caleb Young
Owning Green: Evaluating The Effects Of Actively Managed Sustainability Fund Ownership On Esg Scores, Caleb Young
CMC Senior Theses
The growing trend of acknowledging ESG performance as a material concern when conducting due diligence on investment opportunities has exacerbated the number of assets being managed by investors with sustainability-oriented goals. At the same time, as social and climate-related issues have become more intense, investors want to use their agency as shareholders to influence companies to act in ways that align with their values. Frequently, this can be most effectively achieved through proxy voting and corporate engagement, particularly if the fund is an active manager. This thesis explores the interaction between ESG-focused ETFs and mutual funds and their management style …
Ceo Characteristics That Lead To Extreme Outperformance: A Statistical Analysis Of William Thorndike’S “The Outsiders”, William Turner
Ceo Characteristics That Lead To Extreme Outperformance: A Statistical Analysis Of William Thorndike’S “The Outsiders”, William Turner
CMC Senior Theses
What makes a high-performing CEO? What CEOs should you invest in? These are the questions that the Board of Directors, headhunters, academics, and investors all seek the answer to. This paper explores the answer to this question by examining CEO performance at the extremes. Inspired by the work of William N. Thorndike’s “The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success,” this study expands upon his methodology, employing a statistical approach to analyze a broader dataset of CEOs over the past thirty years. Using a logit model of hyper-outperforming versus hyper-underperforming CEOs, it assesses the …