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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 1 - 30 of 131

Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management

Distribution Comparisons Of Eac Cost Growth For Aircraft Work Breakdown Structure Elements, Kyle P. Marquis, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Robert D. Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine Apr 2025

Distribution Comparisons Of Eac Cost Growth For Aircraft Work Breakdown Structure Elements, Kyle P. Marquis, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Robert D. Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes and investigates the distribution of cost growth of the Estimate at Completion (EAC) for the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements of approximately 60 historical United States Acquisition Category I Research, Development, Test and Evaluation aircraft programs. Using the method of maximum likelihood in conjunction with the Akaike Information Criterion, the authors suggest that both the lognormal and Weibull distributions provide relatively good fit to EAC cost growth, with the lognormal slightly edging out the Weibull. As a summarized finding, the authors present their empirical results for the mean, coefficient of variation (CV), the 15th and 85th percentiles …

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Analyzing Stability Of Estimates At Completion For Long Duration Development Efforts, Bradley Vuu, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas, Edward D. White Apr 2025

Analyzing Stability Of Estimates At Completion For Long Duration Development Efforts, Bradley Vuu, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Defense program managers utilize Earned Value Management (EVM) methodologies to measure, report, and predict the cost and schedule performance of their programs. Previous research conducted by Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) has shown varied results in the stability of EVM Estimates at Completion (EACs). Stability is defined as a 10% or less deviation from the final EAC at a specified percent completion point of the program. The Christensen (1996) and Kim et al. (2019) studies also noted that program-specific factors, such as phase, can impact the accuracy of EVM metrics. This study builds upon those works by assessing …

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Accuracy Of Time Phasing Missile And Munition Using The Continuous Distribution Function, Joseph Zobler Mar 2025

Accuracy Of Time Phasing Missile And Munition Using The Continuous Distribution Function, Joseph Zobler

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate cost and schedule estimates are crucial for maintaining the U.S. military’s technological and operational superiority, ensuring efficient resource allocation and timely development of advanced defense systems. This research examines S-curve models for time-phasing non-recurring Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) expenditures in missile and munition acquisition programs. This research evaluates the commonly used 60/40 rule, which assumes 60% of expenditures occur by 50% of the schedule, for its accuracy using Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) and Earned Value Management Central Repository (EVM-CR) data from 21 missile and munition development programs.

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Advancing Defense Software Cost Estimation Through Regression, Probabilistic, And Machine Learning Models, Stephen D. Chatterton Mar 2025

Advancing Defense Software Cost Estimation Through Regression, Probabilistic, And Machine Learning Models, Stephen D. Chatterton

Theses and Dissertations

Accurately estimating software costs is critical for effective project management within the Department of Defense (DoD), where early decisions shape resource allocation and risk management. This work evaluates regression-based Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs), probabilistic models, and machine learning techniques to address limitations of traditional estimation methods. Using records from two DoD repositories, the analysis applied Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), Random Forest, and neural networks to model and classify software costs, with key predictors including Source Lines of Code (SLOC), Equivalent Source Lines of Code (ESLOC), and programming hours. The findings highlight strengths and trade-offs of …

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Creating And Analyzing Space Vehicle Seit/Pm Factors, Jordan A. Bosco Mar 2025

Creating And Analyzing Space Vehicle Seit/Pm Factors, Jordan A. Bosco

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense relies on accurate cost estimation to inform budget decisions. Beyond being a critical component of the Defense Acquisition System, cost estimation is a legal requirement in the budgeting process. Cost analysts, therefore, have both a fiduciary and statutory responsibility to produce realistic estimates. Among the many elements of a space system cost estimate is Space Vehicle Systems Engineering, Integration & Test, and Program Management (SEIT/PM). While existing factors aid in estimating SEIT/PM, Space Systems Command is interested in research in alternatives to the current methods and crosschecks for those methods. This study develops a set of …

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Production Box Cost Estimating Relationships For Dod Avionics, Carla J. Cisneros, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Robert D. Fass, Shawn M. Valentine Oct 2024

Production Box Cost Estimating Relationships For Dod Avionics, Carla J. Cisneros, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Robert D. Fass, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

The authors use historical information obtained from the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise to estimate recurring production unit cost for DoD avionics via cost estimating relationships (CERs). The specific modeled responses include mean unit cost, median unit cost, and the 100th production unit cost (T100) utilizing learning curve theory. For T100, the authors adopt both a multiplicative and an additive error for CER comparison. Recommended CERs consist of the mean unit cost and the T100 utilizing a multiplicative error. Moreover, results reveal that weight has a significant effect on cost as well as a potential underaccounting of real price change or …

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Cost Estimating Relationships For Avionics Recurring Production Box Costs, Carla J. Cisneros Mar 2024

Cost Estimating Relationships For Avionics Recurring Production Box Costs, Carla J. Cisneros

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates a dataset of 286 Department of Defense (DoD) avionics boxes, employing regression methods to establish seven cost estimation relationships (CERs) for predicting avionics recurring production box costs. Not confined to T100 costs, three baseline models use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) T100 cost, explaining 83%, 86%, and 83% of dataset variation. Additionally, four robust models depict mean and median, T100 OLS, and T100 non-linear learning curves, explaining 67%, 65%, 97%, and 87% of the variation. These models strike a balance between simple baseline and overly complex computational models. Identified cost drivers include weight, year of first flight, volume, …

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The Impact Of Advancing Technology On Fire Control Radar Costs, Dustin M. Brewer Mar 2024

The Impact Of Advancing Technology On Fire Control Radar Costs, Dustin M. Brewer

Theses and Dissertations

Radar systems are integral components of fighter aircraft, gaining heightened importance with the emergence of fifth-generation variants. Among these systems, fire control radar plays a crucial role by providing pilots with unparalleled long-range sensing capabilities vital for navigation and target identification. The rapid evolution of radar technology is deemed essential to align with the evolving mission requirements, a factor anticipated to significantly impact radar system costs. This research investigates the influence of evolving technology on fire control radar development and production costs. To accomplish this objective, radars are categorized into generations based on existing literature, and a comparative analysis is …

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Discerning Satellite Subsystem Costs To Improve Cost Estimation, Ryan A. Candella Mar 2024

Discerning Satellite Subsystem Costs To Improve Cost Estimation, Ryan A. Candella

Theses and Dissertations

The race for supremacy in the space environment is accelerating, with the United States taking a significant step by establishing its dedicated military branch for space operations. Achieving dominance in this realm relies on efficiently managing costs and securing rapid funding to initiate new programs. One step towards accomplishing this goal is to comprehend the cost distribution across the primary components of a Space Vehicle Bus and to delve into lower-level Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements for more precise and expeditious cost estimations. To achieve this, descriptive statistics for a variety of Bus subsystem WBS elements are provided in this …

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Exploring Fiscal Year Budget Assessments: A Look At Sbir/Sttr And Congressional Rescissions, Bryan N. Palmer Mar 2024

Exploring Fiscal Year Budget Assessments: A Look At Sbir/Sttr And Congressional Rescissions, Bryan N. Palmer

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the relationship between acquisition programs within the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (LCMC) and budgetary assessments from both the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR & STTR) programs, as well as Congressional Rescissions. It analyzes the tendency and severity of budget cuts across different programs, considering factors such as completion time, budget activities, and a variable akin to true Acquisition Category (ACAT) levels. Key findings include a significant difference in the rates of proportion of programs assessed between appropriations 3010 (23.65%) and 3600 (67.05%) from fiscal years 2010-2023. The research indicates a …

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Cloud One Migration Schedule Drivers And Schedule Growth, Ryan J. Jansen Mar 2024

Cloud One Migration Schedule Drivers And Schedule Growth, Ryan J. Jansen

Theses and Dissertations

Cloud One, chartered in 2017 under the guidance of Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC) leadership, continues to serve as the USAF’s leading cloud services and hosting platform by providing secure computing environments, application migration assistance, and data management. Prior research has yielded qualitative insights regarding Cloud One’s personnel requirements, application of technical performance, requirements fulfillment, security risks, and various other cost metrics, but schedule improvement recommendations based on the quantitative analysis of migration schedule data has yet to be provided. This research identifies trends within migration sprint schedules and completed schedule data for Cloud One’s completed application migrations. …

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Comparative Analysis Of Satellite Battery Technologies: A Cross-Sectional And Temporal Study Within And Across Battery Types, Andrew H. Chung Mar 2024

Comparative Analysis Of Satellite Battery Technologies: A Cross-Sectional And Temporal Study Within And Across Battery Types, Andrew H. Chung

Theses and Dissertations

Trends in costs for batteries incorporated in satellite electrical power systems (EPS) have been identified by Space Systems Command (SSC) within the Unmanned Space Vehicle Cost Model (USCM) database. A subset of pre-1980s data consisting of Nickel-Cadmium battery costs was excluded from battery cost estimating relationship (CER) development as a result of this determination. This research aims to ascertain the impacts of these trends on satellite cost estimating practices by assessing developments in battery costs over time, comparing normalized Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd) / NickelHydrogen (NiH2) / Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) battery costs, identifying differences between the NiH2 and Li-Ion modern battery types, and …

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Developing A Rule-Of-Thumb To Predict Total O&S Costs Utilizing A Single Ces Element, Shane A. Scantling Mar 2024

Developing A Rule-Of-Thumb To Predict Total O&S Costs Utilizing A Single Ces Element, Shane A. Scantling

Theses and Dissertations

A rule of thumb is a broadly accurate guide based on experience rather than theory. This study examines the potential for a rule of thumb to predict Operation and Sustainment (O&S) costs. The Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) found that a single variable could accurately predict total O&S costs. We found that while a single variable could be highly predictive and strongly correlated to total O&S costs, it is not the same variable for all platforms. We improved upon this initial heuristic proposed by Stumborg by developing an individual heuristic for each Mission Design (MD). We found that a form …

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Development Of Cost Factors For Satellite Rechargeable Batteries, Katelyn A. Clements Mar 2024

Development Of Cost Factors For Satellite Rechargeable Batteries, Katelyn A. Clements

Theses and Dissertations

Factors are often used by the cost estimating profession to predict costs of future projects or project components. Cost factors can be useful when little to no cost data is available from which to build an initial estimate or as an easy-to-use cross check of a primary estimate. Specific to satellites, previous studies have examined cost factors at higher Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) levels (e.g., Level 2 or Level 3), while this research analyzes cost factors developed using data specific to rechargeable batteries at USCM WBS Level 4 and its parent, the Electrical Power System (EPS) at Level 3. Within …

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Cost Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha Jones, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine Jul 2023

Cost Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha Jones, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

The authors use both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate average and standard deviation trends in cost estimates for major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) grouped into decades from the 1970s to 2010s. For total program-cost-growth factors (CGFs), the 2010s exhibited lower CGFs compared to the 1990s. For the program-acquisition-unit cost (PAUC) CGFs, the 2010s appear lower than the 1990s and borderline lower than the 1970s. A statistically significant decreasing trend in the standard deviations of total program CGFs throughout the decades was identified. This lowering variability trend also appeared for PAUC CGFs from the 1980s onward. This finding appears to …

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Cost Estimating Relationships For Recurring T100 Flyaway Costs, Kyrie M. Rojo Mar 2023

Cost Estimating Relationships For Recurring T100 Flyaway Costs, Kyrie M. Rojo

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates a dataset of over 80 Air Force and Navy aircraft and applies regression techniques to create two cost estimating relationships (CERs) for predicting recurring T100 flyaway costs, depending on where in the acquisition lifecycle the estimate takes place. The first CER explains 89 percent of the variation in the dataset and can be applied prior to Milestone B (MS B). The second CER explains 88 percent of the variation in the dataset and can be applied between MS B and MS C. Significant cost drivers identified include stealth, cohort, empty weight, the natural log of speed, legacy …

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Effects Of Level Of Effort Measurement In The Application Of Earned Value Management, James M. Demos Mar 2023

Effects Of Level Of Effort Measurement In The Application Of Earned Value Management, James M. Demos

Theses and Dissertations

Major Air Force contracts are subject to overview utilizing Earned Value Management (EVM). EVM is flexible in its application through the adherence of guidelines rather than strict rules. Due to this method, there is concern for potential abuse of application through overuse of Level of Effort (LOE) as a measurement technique. There are current recommended practices and rules of thumb that suggest LOE should be limited to 15% of a program’s budget with no quantitative research to support this claim. This study examines how LOE is currently employed in ACAT I Air Force programs and what LOE’s impact is on …

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A Decadal Analysis Of Factor Trends In Production Data For Department Of Defense Acquisition Programs, Scott A. Reilly Mar 2023

A Decadal Analysis Of Factor Trends In Production Data For Department Of Defense Acquisition Programs, Scott A. Reilly

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves the analysis of standard parametric cost factors across decades within the Production phase of Department of Defense (DoD) acquisitions. DoD cost estimators utilize factors to develop budgets, build cost estimates, measure program progress, and crosscheck for other estimating methodologies. This research analyzed contract data from 732 cost data summary reports (DD Form 1921) across seven decades and eight common work breakdown structure (WBS) elements. In addition to analyzing differences in these WBS elements, this research also provides analysis across decades for several commodity types, contract types, contractor types, and service branches. The statistical tests conducted in our …

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Rate Effects In Aircraft Learning Curves, Caleb J. Ahern Mar 2023

Rate Effects In Aircraft Learning Curves, Caleb J. Ahern

Theses and Dissertations

Across the Department of Defense (DoD), a wide variety of analytical tools are employed by cost analysts to estimate weapon system costs. One of the techniques widely employed by practitioners is the learning curve (LC). Although learning curves have been widely studied, using rate-adjustments or production rate effects (PRE), their usage have only intermittently been evaluated in place of using the traditional learning curve. Previous studies analyzing production rate found mixed results. This research aims to examine aircraft production data to determine if production rate model is preferrable in United States Air Force programs. Additionally, this PRE research seeks to …

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Using Blockchain To Track Dod Funding And Auditing, Prithvi Prasanna Sep 2022

Using Blockchain To Track Dod Funding And Auditing, Prithvi Prasanna

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) currently faces a significant problem when it comes to auditing and tracking financial transactions. The DoD has failed every audit since 2017 although it is gradually improving its auditable rating year after year. Concurrently, Blockchain is an emerging technology that has typically been used for cryptocurrencies but has slowly been adapted by private enterprises for their auditing and invoicing problems. This study investigates the value proposition of blockchain technology to improve DoD financial tracking and auditing. To test the hypothesis that blockchain is the optimal option for the DoD, this paper employs an industry blockchain …

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The Effect Of Company Financial Health On The Likelihood Of Cost Overruns, Brady C. Weaver Mar 2022

The Effect Of Company Financial Health On The Likelihood Of Cost Overruns, Brady C. Weaver

Theses and Dissertations

Financial ratio analysis has long been used to determine the financial health of firms and project business performance. Despite the usefulness of financial ratio analysis, risk analysis in defense acquisitions largely ignores these indicators of company financial well-being. This research performs contingency table statistical analysis to determine if a relationship exists between company financial ratios and their future cost performance on Air Force contracts. The general findings are that poor financial ratios at the time of contract start are related to increased likelihood of cost overruns on that contract. Specifically, recent trends of a company’s current ratio in comparison to …

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Analysis Of Cost And Schedule Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha J. Jones Mar 2022

Analysis Of Cost And Schedule Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha J. Jones

Theses and Dissertations

This study uses both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate trends in cost and schedule estimates created by the Department of Defense for their Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) throughout the last five decades. For schedule growth percentages, we did not identify any statistically significant trend regarding increasing or decreasing schedule changes or variances of schedule estimates throughout the five decades analyzed. Examining the overall cost growth of MDAPs, a statistically significant difference between the Cost Growth Factors (CGFs) calculated between the 1990s and the 2010s was found, with the 2010s exhibiting lower CGFs. A downward trend in the variances …

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Analysis Of Time-Phased Estimates Accuracy, Budget Profile And Under-Spending In Defense Acquisition Programs, Thinh Q. Tran Mar 2021

Analysis Of Time-Phased Estimates Accuracy, Budget Profile And Under-Spending In Defense Acquisition Programs, Thinh Q. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

As fiscal resources become more limited due to the expanding range of mission needs, accurate cost estimating and budgeting have become more important than ever before. Accurate cost estimates allow the Department of Defense (DoD) to budget with confidence and to effectively communicate its needs to Congress. This research looks to analyze estimates from Air Force’s programs using Milestone B and Initial Operational Capability as the analysis window. Initial analysis of the linear interpolation of the percent budget change indicates that there is underspending in the earlier stages of acquisition programs’ development cycle. Additionally, looking at the cumulative budget change …

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Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards Mar 2020

Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …

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The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic Mar 2020

The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic

Theses and Dissertations

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …

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The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato Mar 2020

The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato

Theses and Dissertations

The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …

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Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford Mar 2020

Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford

Theses and Dissertations

Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.

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Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack Mar 2020

Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …

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Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell Mar 2020

Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …

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Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown Oct 2019

Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes how development budget estimates, as reported in the Selected Acquisition Reports, change over time for primarily Air Force space programs. Government acquisition policy emphasizes the importance of developing an accurate point estimate for programs to ensure program budget efficiency; however, statistics imply space programs tend to underspend at the beginning of the program and to overspend at the end of Initial Operational Capability. This suggests new phasing methods that reflect the unique needs of space and perhaps other developmental-type programs by allocating more of the budget in later years rather than at the beginning of the program, …

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