Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Evaluation Of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return And Pitfalls, Francis Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles fast becoming popular with high net worth individuals as well as institutional investors. These are funds that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. Given that they have substantial latitude to invest, it is instructive to examine the performance of hedge funds as compared to other forms of managed funds. This paper provides an overview of hedge funds and discusses their empirical risk and return profiles. It also poses some concerns …

The Finite Moment Log Stable Process And Option Pricing, Peter Carr, Liuren Wu

CRIF Working Paper series

We document a surprising pattern in market prices of S&P 500 index options. When implied volatilities are graphed against a standard measure of moneyness, the implied volatility smirk does not flatten out as maturity increases up to the observable horizon of two years. This behavior contrasts sharply with the implications of many pricing models and with the asymptotic behavior implied by the central limit theorem (CLT). We develop a parsimonious model which deliberately violates the CLT assumptions and thus captures the observed behavior of the volatility smirk over the maturity horizon. Calibration exercises demonstrate its superior performance against several widely …

Time-Varying Arrival Rates Of Informed And Uninformed Trades, David Easley, Robert F. Engle, Maureen O’Hara, Liuren Wu

CRIF Working Paper series

In this paper we extend the model of Easley and O’Hara (1992) to allow the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades to be time-varying and forecastable. We specify a generalized autoregressive bivariate process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades and estimate the model on 16 actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange over 15 years of transaction data. Our results show that uninformed trades are highly persistent. Uninformed order arrivals clump together, with high uninformed volume days likely to follow high uninformed volume days, and conversely. This behavior is consistent with the passive characterization …

A Dynamic Equilibrium Model Of Real Exchange Rates With General Transaction Costs, Gautam Goswami, Milind Shrikhande, Liuren Wu

CRIF Working Paper series

We study the behavior of real exchange rates in a two-country dynamic equilibrium model. In this model, consumers can only consume domestic goods but can invest costlessly in capital stocks of both countries. Nevertheless, transporting goods between the two countries is costly and, hence, the rebalancing of the capital stock can only happen finitely often. We propose a realistic cost structure for goods transportation, wherein the total cost increases with the amount of shipment but the unit cost decreases with it due to economies of scale. Given such a cost structure, the optimal decisions on when and how much to …

Credit Rationing In The U.S. Mortgage Market: Evidence From Variation In Fha Market Shares, Brent W. Ambrose, Anthony Pennington-Cross, Anthony M. Yezer

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the nature of mortgage credit rationing across geographic markets and time. Particular attention is paid to the response of conventional mortgage supply to higher risk conditions associated with regional recessions. We develop a series of four indirect tests based on the spatial variation of the FHA share of mortgages, both endorsements and applications, as well as FHA and conventional rejection rates. Results of these four tests indicate that conventional mortgage underwriting criteria do not become more flexible and may even become more demanding when local economic conditions deteriorate. This result indicates the use of non-price credit rationing …

A Life Cycle Cost Analysis Of The Proposed Replacement Of Pope Air Force Base's C-130e Fleet Using A Fleet Replacement Model, Lance R. French

Theses and Dissertations

The 43rd Airlift Wing at Pope AFB, NC, possesses 33 E-model C-130 aircraft. The airplanes range in age from 30-36 years old. Current plans call for replacing Pope's aging fleet of tactical airlifters with new C-130J model planes in FY11. There are two replacement alternatives proposed in this research. The first is to calls for replacing the C-130Es with C-130Js now. The second option is upgrade the C-130Es to C-130Xs and replace them in 10 years with the C-130J. The results indicate that the least cost solution is to upgrade Pope's fleet of C-130Es to C-130Xs now. However, after conducting …

Forecasting Research & Development Program Budgets Using The Weibull Model, Thomas W. Brown

Theses and Dissertations

Norden (1970) uses the Rayleigh, which is a degenerative of the Weibull, to model manpower on research and development (R&D) programs. Several research efforts extend his work including Lee, Hogue, and Gallagher (1997) who build R&D program budgets based on Rayleigh expenditures. We demonstrate the theoretical limitations to the Rayleigh model and present the Weibull model, which mitigates those limitations. Using 102 completed R&D defense programs, we develop regression models to predict the requisite shape and scale parameters to forecast Weibull-based budgets. Using the remaining 26 completed R&D programs to validate the robustness of our regression models, we show that …

Risk Management In Banking & Insurance Sector, Rakesh Agarwal

Management Dynamics

No abstract provided.

Fixing Mistakes In Your Credit Report, Barbara Rowe

All Current Publications

No abstract provided.

Sampling Concepts, Paul Boyd, Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

The usefulness of any research is dependent upon how well the group studied represents the group about which decisions are to be made or conclusions drawn. That is, it depends upon how well the sample reflects relevant characteristics of the population. When it is possible to study every member of that group there is no problem, for on these occasions we can easily calculate the exact attribute (parameter) of interest for our population.

For example, if we were interested in determining the average number of gallons of gasoline sold to customers at our service station yesterday, we …

Indiana State University Financial Report 2002, Indiana State University

Financial Reports

No abstract provided.

Asset Pricing Under The Quadratic Class, Markus Leippold, Liuren Wu

CRIF Working Paper series

We identify and characterize a class of term structure models where bond yields are quadratic functions of the state vector. We label this class the quadratic class and aim to lay a solid theoretical foundation for its future empirical application. We consider asset pricing in general and derivative pricing in particular under the quadratic class. We provide two general transform methods in pricing a wide variety of fixed income derivatives in closed or semi-closed form. We further illustrate how the quadratic model and the transform methods can be applied to more general settings.

Proposal For A Centralized And Integrated Registry For Security Interests In Intellectual Property, William J. Murphy

Law Faculty Scholarship

As the world economy enters the twenty-first century, job and wealth creation is increasingly based on innovation and creativity that, in turn, can give rise to important intellectual property rights. For many companies and individuals these intellectual property rights may represent their most valuable assets, or in some cases, their only valuable assets. As a result, intellectual property rights increasingly play a critical the role in financing.

Unlocking the job and wealth creating potential of intellectual property assets requires putting these assets into use, and that often requires a capital investment. Unfortunately, many entrepreneurs and innovators lack the capital necessary …

2001-2002 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

2001-2002 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Are Sri Funds Different From Non-Sri Funds, From A Financial Asset Perspective?: Evidence From Some Australian Sri Funds, Ingebjørg Kristoffersen

Theses : Honours

Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) has seen a remarkable growth in recent years – primarily in the US and UK, but also in other markets including Australia. This growth, along with the development of corporate social responsibility, is suggested to be a result of increased awareness in social, environment and human rights issues. The literature offers several suggestions as to how SRIs and SRI funds may differ from other investments, as financial assets. It has been suggested that SRIs are more likely to represent smaller stocks, and also more likely represent growth rather than value stocks compared to non-SRIs. Furthermore, different …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 10, 2002, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Communicating Effectively with Words, Numbers, and Pictures: Drawing on Experience • Karolina Duklan and Michael A. Martin

Unearned Premiums and Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses in Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance • Joseph Cheng

Can Utility Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning? • Zaki Khorasanee

Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria • Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, and Chang- Ye Tu

Model Risk and Surplus Management Under a Stochastic Interest Rate Process •Jennifer L. Wang and Rachel J. Huang

Some Comments on the Pricing of an Exotic Excess of …

Improving Mortality: A Rule Of Thumb And Regulatory Tool, John H. Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We develop a simple exact formula for determining cohort life expectancies under constant continuous uniform improvement in mortality using only a cross-sectional (period) Gompertz life table for the lives concerned and a simple approximation applicable to all life tables. The present values of annuities for such lives can be determined simply and accurately across the whole age span.

Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses how the statistical software WinBUGS can be used to implement a Bayesian analysis of several popular severity models applied to exact size-of-Ioss data. The particular models targeted are the gamma, inverse gamma, loggamma, lognormal, (two-parameter) Pareto, inverse (two-parameter) Pareto, Weibull, and inverse Weibull distributions. It is possible to implement additional size-of-Ioss models (including those for truncated data) using methods analogous to those described herein.

Model Risks And Surplus Management Under A Stochastic Interest Rate Process, Jennifer L. Wang, Rachel J. Huang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses simulations to explore the effects of incorrectly identifying the underlying interest rate process on assets, liabilities, and surplus levels. We show that mismodeling the interest rate (called model risk) could not only lead to a misstatement of the company's surplus, but could also cause a mismatch between the company's assets and liabilities. Our simulations demonstrate that three aspects of interest rates affect model risk: (i) volatility, (ii) level of long-term interest rate, and (iii) the speed at which the drift rate adjusts. We conclude that asset-liability managers should not ignore the impact of the model risks, regardless …

Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A prorata formula is commonly used to calculate unearned premium reserves in property-casualty insurance. I believe, however, that an exposure-adjusted formula is more appropriate in automobile extended warranties. This paper describes the exposure-adjusted approach to calculate the unearned premium reserves of an automobile extended warranty insurance program, to test the adequacy of the calculated reserves, and to determine the allowable deferred policy acquisition expenses from an insurance company's perspective.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice Volume 10 (2002) -- Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Utility-maximization models for optimizing portfolio choices can be subdivided into two classes: those based on maximizing the expected utility of lifetime consumption and those based on maximizing the expected utility of retirement wealth. It is argued that the first type of model, which optimizes both saving and investment decisions, is difficult to apply in practice because of inadequate (or unreliable) information about individual preferences. Although the second type of model only optimizes investment decisions, it is of greater practical value because fewer data on individual preferences are required. The second type of model is used to derive formulae for the …

Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses a multivariate analog of Panjer's algorithm to develop a method for pricing a complex excess of loss treaty. The treaty is such that some layers inure to the benefit of other layers. The structure of this treaty is discussed. Numerical examples are provided.

Communicating Effectively With Words, Numbers, And Pictures: Drawing On Experience, Karolina Duklan, Michael A. Martin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

In this paper, we discuss techniques for developing effective communication skills, focusing in particular on technical writing, the use of graphics, and presentation. The key principles of effective communication that we propose to actuaries are as follows:

• Identify your audience and consider their needs and abilities;

• Focus on substantive content;

• Choose appropriate communication tools;

• Use language that is simple, concrete, and familiar;

• Integrate text, numbers, and graphics;

• Respond to information complexity creatively.

We focus in particular on the use of graphics as a communications tool as they are an efficient and potentially highly effective …

Further Remarks On Risk Sources Measuring: The Case Of A Life Annuity Portfolio, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper considers a model that allows the actuary to measure the riskiness connected to the randomness of projected mortality tables in evaluating a portfolio of life annuities, obtaining a measure to reflect the risk associated with the randomness of the projection. The coherence of the risk parameters with the specific nature of the considered risk sources is also discussed. Numerical examples illustrate the results, showing the importance of the risk components in terms of the number of policies and comparing measure tools obtained by means of two procedures.

A Note On The Parallelogram Method For Computing The On-Level Premium, David P.M. Scollnik, Wai Man Sara Lau

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses the differences appearing in the descriptions of the parallelogram method for the determination of earned premium at current rate levels given by McClenahan (1996) and Brown and Gottlieb (2001). It observes that the former is consistent with the method of extending exposures while the latter is not. An illustration is provided. This paper also discusses two other approaches to the determination of the earned premium.

Dynamic Funding And Investment Strategy For Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria, Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, Chang-Ye Tu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper studies the dynamic funding policy and investment strategy for defined benefit pension plans using one of the most comprehensive dynamic pension models to date. The model includes three investable assets: one risk free and two risky. The optimal plan decisions are formulated as a stochastic control problem that is solved using dynamic programming. The objective function uses performance measures to take into account the stability and solvency of the plan. The model is then applied to a Taiwanese pension.

Pemikiran Abu Yusuf Mengenai Kewangan Islam : Kajian Dalam Kitab Al-Kharaj, Hanin Mahamud Azaki

Student Works (2000-2009)

This dissertation explains the contribution of Abu Yusuf in Islamic Finance based on his Kitab al-Kharaj in which he has been regarded as an outstanding Muslim thinker of Hanafi school of thought. In this work, Abu Yusuf highlighted the position of land taxation (al-kharaj) according to Islamic perspective. ln other words, it tries to view Islamic rulings concerning land tax, its procedures as well as its measurement. Hopefully it will assist in the implementation of land tax accordance with the spirit of Islam. Chapter one explains the background of Abu Yusuf, his teachers and writings. Chapter two mentions the theory …

Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles C. Tu, Mark Eppli

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the …

Rapid, Specific Determination Of Iodine And Iodide By Combined Solid-Phase Extraction/Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy, Matteo P. Arena, Marc D. Porter, James S. Fritz

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

A new, rapid methodology for trace analysis using solid-phase extraction is described. The two-step methodology is based on the concentration of an analyte onto a membrane disk and on the determination by diffuse reflectance spectroscopy of the amount of analyte extracted on the disk surface. This method, which is adaptable to a wide range of analytes, has been used for monitoring ppm levels of iodine and iodide in spacecraft water. Iodine is used as a biocide in spacecraft water. For these determinations, a water sample is passed through a membrane disk by means of a 10-mL syringe that is attached …