Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Military procurement (6)
- Regression analysis (5)
- Life cycle costing (4)
- Cost analysis (3)
- Cost estimates (3)
-
- Cost estimating (3)
- Defense contracts (3)
- Delphi method (3)
- Government purchasing (3)
- Military acquisition (3)
- Armed Forces--Appropriations and expeditures (2)
- Computer software--Costs (2)
- Cost control (2)
- Cost growth (2)
- Cost models (2)
- Cost overruns (2)
- Finance (2)
- Military airplanes (2)
- Military helicopters--Cost of operation --Forecasting (2)
- Procurement (2)
- Program management (2)
- United States. Air Force--Cost control (2)
- United States. Dept. of Defense--Procurement (2)
- Weapons systems--Costs (2)
- Acquisition Reform (1)
- Acquisitions program (1)
- Aeronautical Systems Center (U.S.)--Costs (1)
- Aeronautical Systems Center (U.S.)--Procurement--Costs (1)
- Affordability (1)
- Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (1)
- Publication Year
- Publication Type
Articles 61 - 86 of 86
Full-Text Articles in Business
Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher
Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher
Theses and Dissertations
This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Air Force Helicopters. Specifically, this research evaluates three separate forecasting techniques to predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Air Force. It starts by empirically analyzing the Operating and Support cost by CAIG categories for each helicopter. For forecasting purposes, the actual CPFH figures were compiled from FY96 to FY03 for a total of eight MAJCOMs flying the MH-53J/M, the HH-60G, or the UH-1N helicopters. The research explores the use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's …
An Analysis Of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Richard A. Phillips
An Analysis Of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Richard A. Phillips
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) aircraft weapon systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts affected aircraft weapon system cost growth. A "pre-reform" (1 January 1991-31 December 1996) period and a "post reform" (1 January 1997-31 December 2001) period were subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program …
Comparative Analysis On The Cost Of Oversight For The New National Security Space Acquisition Policy- A Delphi Method Approach, Darrin L. Dereus
Comparative Analysis On The Cost Of Oversight For The New National Security Space Acquisition Policy- A Delphi Method Approach, Darrin L. Dereus
Theses and Dissertations
For the past 50 years, the military's use of space for our national defense has increased exponentially. The use of space has increased so much that recent events have led to the approval for most space Major Defense Acquisition Programs to fall under their own process of oversight to track and monitor these programs. The largest reason for this change is due to the difference in spending profiles and current acquisition regulations that are not structured to meet these space expenditure plans. The key problem is no one knows, for sure, how much the oversight process actually costs and if …
Forecasting Research & Development Program Budgets Using The Weibull Model, Thomas W. Brown
Forecasting Research & Development Program Budgets Using The Weibull Model, Thomas W. Brown
Theses and Dissertations
Norden (1970) uses the Rayleigh, which is a degenerative of the Weibull, to model manpower on research and development (R&D) programs. Several research efforts extend his work including Lee, Hogue, and Gallagher (1997) who build R&D program budgets based on Rayleigh expenditures. We demonstrate the theoretical limitations to the Rayleigh model and present the Weibull model, which mitigates those limitations. Using 102 completed R&D defense programs, we develop regression models to predict the requisite shape and scale parameters to forecast Weibull-based budgets. Using the remaining 26 completed R&D programs to validate the robustness of our regression models, we show that …
A Life Cycle Cost Analysis Of The Proposed Replacement Of Pope Air Force Base's C-130e Fleet Using A Fleet Replacement Model, Lance R. French
A Life Cycle Cost Analysis Of The Proposed Replacement Of Pope Air Force Base's C-130e Fleet Using A Fleet Replacement Model, Lance R. French
Theses and Dissertations
The 43rd Airlift Wing at Pope AFB, NC, possesses 33 E-model C-130 aircraft. The airplanes range in age from 30-36 years old. Current plans call for replacing Pope's aging fleet of tactical airlifters with new C-130J model planes in FY11. There are two replacement alternatives proposed in this research. The first is to calls for replacing the C-130Es with C-130Js now. The second option is upgrade the C-130Es to C-130Xs and replace them in 10 years with the C-130J. The results indicate that the least cost solution is to upgrade Pope's fleet of C-130Es to C-130Xs now. However, after conducting …
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we …
Revising R & D Program Budgets When Considering Funding Curtailment With A Weibull Model, Paul H. Porter
Revising R & D Program Budgets When Considering Funding Curtailment With A Weibull Model, Paul H. Porter
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops an analytical technique to estimate the impact of funding curtailment on an R&D program. The method quickly produces a revised budget by year for an on-going R&D program when funding in one year is reduced. We assume program requirements remain unchanged. The program duration may be unchanged or "stretched" to a later completion date. We use the Rayleigh and Weibull functions to model expenditure profiles, which forms basis of the analytical approach. Our proposed methodology accounts for budget outlay rates and inflation. We validate the proposed analytical technique using historical cost data from several programs.
Dollarizing Qualitative Discriminators Used In Best Value Source Selections, Jason R. Borchers
Dollarizing Qualitative Discriminators Used In Best Value Source Selections, Jason R. Borchers
Theses and Dissertations
With the decreasing budget that gets allocated to the Department of Defense each year, the government needs to be able to acquire more with less. This has a direct impact on how source selections are conducted. This research proposes a method using four different levels of cost that will provide the government with the best overall value in the conduction of source selections. This differs from previous source selections, because source selection teams, in general, only considered proposal price in their evaluation.
A Critical Analysis Of The Air Force's International Merchant Purchase Authorization Card (Impac) Program, Roy D. Thrailkill
A Critical Analysis Of The Air Force's International Merchant Purchase Authorization Card (Impac) Program, Roy D. Thrailkill
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) purchased over $ 1.3 billion worth of goods and services with the IMPAC in fiscal year (FY) 2000 alone. The proliferation of the IMPAC has changed the way organizations procure goods and services and empowered them with a tool to increase their procurement flexibility and responsiveness. These benefits have been accompanied by regulatory and procedural constraints that have presented challenges to key participants of this streamlined purchase process. This thesis addresses documented deviations of the IMPAC program's execution from its theoretical design. It describes the structure of the IMPAC program, analyzes the execution of …
Estimating C-17 Operating And Support Costs: Development Of A System Dynamics Model, Christopher D. Purvis
Estimating C-17 Operating And Support Costs: Development Of A System Dynamics Model, Christopher D. Purvis
Theses and Dissertations
This research provides justification for experimenting with system dynamics (SD) for performing Operation and Support Cost estimates. For the C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft, these costs could exceed $64 billion dollars. Also, many of our weapon systems are beginning to reach the end of their effective life span, and discussions about the impact of aging, on aircraft, has become a hot topic in the literature. System Dynamics is a modeling methodology developed in 1958, but never used extensively for cost estimating. SD offers unique capabilities to the cost estimator, including the ability to model causal relationships. This capability offers the …
The Adequacy Of The Fourteen General Systems Characteristics As Function Point Adjustment Factors, Michael D. Prater, Joseph C. Willoughby
The Adequacy Of The Fourteen General Systems Characteristics As Function Point Adjustment Factors, Michael D. Prater, Joseph C. Willoughby
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to assess the perceived adequacy of the 14 general systems characteristics (GSCs) in deriving a value adjustment factor (VAF) for calculating final function point counts. Two self-administered surveys were used to collect data. Based on the survey results, it is clear that the 14 GSCs currently do not adequately represent the applications complexity required to adjust function point counts. The current GSCs remain controversial and while this research can not conclusively state that one factor is more accurate than any other, it is evident that certain GSCs are perceived to he more useful for …
The Development Of Laser Cost Estimating Relationships (Cers) From Commercial Data, Michael J. Nolette, Steven L. Seeley
The Development Of Laser Cost Estimating Relationships (Cers) From Commercial Data, Michael J. Nolette, Steven L. Seeley
Theses and Dissertations
The Post Cold War acquisition environment has been marked by significant budget reductions and the greater use of commercial practices. In this austere and rapidly changing acquisition environment, accurate cost estimates are paramount to maximize the use of the DoD's critical resources. The advancement of laser technology has spawned a large variety of military laser applications such as the Airborne Laser (ABL), Space Based Laser (SBL) and a host of other smaller programs. Furthermore, the Air Force Laboratory's Directed Energy Applications for Tactical Airborne Combat (DEATAC) Study (the sponsoring activity of this thesis research) is considering a host of airborne …
Implementation Of An Activity-Based Costing System In An Air Force Laboratory Environment, Jayson M. Wrona, Martin Memminger
Implementation Of An Activity-Based Costing System In An Air Force Laboratory Environment, Jayson M. Wrona, Martin Memminger
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this study was to examine the initial implementation of an Activity Based Costing (ABC) system within the United States Air Force's Research Laboratories (AFRL). We were attempting to ascertain what the initial purposes for implementing ABC within AFRL were, then determine whether or not those goals were being attained. We also attempted to evaluate the current system's appropriateness for achieving those initial purposes. Finally, we provide suggested changes to the model and areas for future research. We noted problems with AFRL's current ABC system. We were able to condense the problem into two main categories. First, when …
An Exploratory Study Of The Use Of Parametric Estimating In Department Of Defense Contracting, Patricia Blakely, Rudolph Haynesworth
An Exploratory Study Of The Use Of Parametric Estimating In Department Of Defense Contracting, Patricia Blakely, Rudolph Haynesworth
Theses and Dissertations
An initiative to expand the use of parametric estimating in government contracting has enjoyed only marginal success. Some reasons for the slower pace of implementation are the lack of availability of historical data, training, acquisition rules, utility, and accuracy concerns. Those associated with the Parametric Cost Estimating Initiative (PCEI) have a higher perception of parametric utility and accuracy than those not associated with the initiative. The PCEI advocates using parametric techniques in any situation, not just the concept/development phases advocated by most literature. Parametric estimating is a catch all term for several different types of statistically based methodologies, ranging from …
Software Support Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study Of Model Content And Parameter Sensitivity, Kevin L. Brummert, Philip R. Mischler Jr.
Software Support Cost Estimating Models: A Comparative Study Of Model Content And Parameter Sensitivity, Kevin L. Brummert, Philip R. Mischler Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
This research entailed a comparison of five software estimating models: PRICE-S, SEER-SEM, SoftCost-OO, SoftEst, and SPR KnowledgePLAN. The objective was to research the differences of the software models as related to software support cost. The following major question areas were addressed: (1) How do the differences between the models impact the resulting cost estimates? (2) To what degree can we explain and adjust for the differences between cost models? All items were for flight avionics of a manned aircraft. The differences between the models significantly impact the resulting estimates. Over the five models evaluated, a range of over $60 million …
A Vft Approach To Allocation Of Manpower And Budget Cuts, Thomas G. Boushell
A Vft Approach To Allocation Of Manpower And Budget Cuts, Thomas G. Boushell
Theses and Dissertations
The National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC), like many Department of Defense (DoD) and civilian organizations, has been forced to undergo budget and manpower reductions. This year's resource allocation decision requires NAIC to identify both contracts and personnel to be cut. In order to reduce the amount of time and subjectivity involved in this important decision, a resource allocation model was developed to compare different alternatives. This model uses decision analysis with value-focused thinking to quantify the resultant impact of the chosen cuts. The impact was quantified based upon the NAIC Commander's values and preferences, which were used to build a …
Calibration And Validation Of The Cocomo Ii.1997.0 Cost/Schedule Estimating Model To The Space And Missile Systems Center Database, Wayne A. Bernheisel
Calibration And Validation Of The Cocomo Ii.1997.0 Cost/Schedule Estimating Model To The Space And Missile Systems Center Database, Wayne A. Bernheisel
Theses and Dissertations
The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy of COCOMO II.1997.0, a software cost and schedule estimating model, using Magnitude of Relative Error, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error, Relative Root Mean Square, and a 25 percent Prediction Level. Effort estimates were completed using the model in default and in calibrated mode. Calibration was accomplished by dividing four stratified data sets into two random validation and calibration data sets using five times resampling. The accuracy results were poor; the best having an accuracy of only .3332 within 40 percent of the time in calibrated mode. It was found that …
Calibration And Validation Of The Sage Software Cost/Schedule Estimating System To United States Air Force Databases, David B. Marzo
Calibration And Validation Of The Sage Software Cost/Schedule Estimating System To United States Air Force Databases, David B. Marzo
Theses and Dissertations
This research entailed calibration and validation of the SAGE Software Cost/Schedule Estimating System, Version 1.7 as a means to improve estimating accuracy for DoD software-intensive systems, and thereby introduce stability into software system development. SAGE calibration consisted of using historical data from completed projects at the Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) and the Electronic Systems Center (ESC) to derive average performance factors (i.e., calibration factors) for pre-defined categories of projects. A project was categorized for calibration by either its primary application or by the contractor that developed it. The intent was to determine the more appropriate categorization for calibration. …
A Study Of Historical Inflation Forecasts Used In The Department Of Defense Future Years Defense Program, Mark S. Sweitzer
A Study Of Historical Inflation Forecasts Used In The Department Of Defense Future Years Defense Program, Mark S. Sweitzer
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis explores historical inflation forecasts used in the Department of Defense (DoD) Future Years Defense Program. The study examines historical DoD forecasts against experienced inflation as measured by the Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product implicit price deflator (GNP/GDP IPD) from 1979 to 1996. This study also compares the accuracy of DoD forecasts with those made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Data Resources, Incorporated (DRI). The results regarding the performance of historical DoD inflation forecasts are mixed. Upon examining budget through five year GNP/GDP IPD forecast spans, DoD short-term results do not indicate a downward bias …
Tracking Overhead Orta Costs In Technology Transfer Activities, Thomas S. Van Egeren
Tracking Overhead Orta Costs In Technology Transfer Activities, Thomas S. Van Egeren
Theses and Dissertations
An ever shrinking Research and Development (R&D) budget, coupled with a widespread perception that the nation is not realizing an adequate return from its substantial investment in the federal laboratory system, has paved the way for an increase in the transfer of technology from the federal laboratories to the private sector. The objective of this research is to determine the indirect cost of performing technology transfer by identifying the resources consumed by several key Office of Research and Technology Applications (ORTA) organizations and the activities performed within these organizations. It was hypothesized that the ORTA organizations, which are considered indirect …
A Comparative Study And Estimation Of The Life-Cycle Cost Impact Of Application Of Real-Time Non-Intrusive (Rtni) Monitoring Technology To Real-Time Embedded Systems, Michael D. Lewis
Theses and Dissertations
The use of real time non-intrusive (RTNI) monitoring has had an impact on life cycle costs of existing programs through a reduction in debug time. Other areas in which RTNI monitoring can provide potential benefits to future programs are through the use of increased dynamic testing and the sharing of testing time among more engineers. There are a number of areas in which software life cycle costs are impacted by various cost drivers. To determine which areas were affected by the use of RTNI monitoring, a panel of expert users of RTNI monitoring was created using a form of the …
Some Empirical Evidence On The Non-Normality Of Cost Variances On Defense Contracts, Robert J. Conley Iv
Some Empirical Evidence On The Non-Normality Of Cost Variances On Defense Contracts, Robert J. Conley Iv
Theses and Dissertations
This study tested the hypothesis that defense cost variances reported on the Cost Performance Report are normally distributed. The DOD requires that all defense cost variances which breech a pre-specified threshold be investigated. The present variance investigation model has been criticized because it can prompt frivolous investigations. In theory, statistical models could reduce the number of frivolous investigations, but they are not used because they require too much information about the cost variance, including its distributional form. Often such models assume a normal distribution, but researchers have shown that the models do not work properly if the assumption is fallacious. …
The Design Of A Financial Management Database System, Edward G. Leszynski
The Design Of A Financial Management Database System, Edward G. Leszynski
Theses and Dissertations
This research led to the design and development of a financial management database system for the Aeronautical Systems Center (AS C) Environmental Management (EM) Systems Program Office (SPO), which has the responsibility of managing the environmental contracts for the Government-Owned, Contractor-Operated (GOCO) plants that are owned by the Air Force. This thesis investigated the various 'development strategies' and 'methodologies' described in the Management Information Systems literature in order to devise an end-user development strategy capable of meeting the EM SPO's requirements. In addition, the information requirements, conceptual design and prototyping, and procedures phases of the System Development Life Cycle (SDLC) …
An Evaluation Of U.S. Air Force Aviation Fuel Consumption Factors To Accurately Predict Aviation Fuel Costs By Aircraft Mission, Design, And Series, Jodi A. Clayton
An Evaluation Of U.S. Air Force Aviation Fuel Consumption Factors To Accurately Predict Aviation Fuel Costs By Aircraft Mission, Design, And Series, Jodi A. Clayton
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis was to undertake a systematic, scientific study of the accuracy of Air Force published fuel factors to estimate fuel costs at MAJCOM level by mission, design, and series (MDS) since the implementation of the Fuels Automated Management System (FAMS) under the current environment of decentralized aviation fuel (AVFUEL) funding. The research found that, at MAJCOM level, the use of USAF published AVFUEL factors in estimating out-year costs would have overstated costs in both fiscal year (FY) 1994 and FY 1995 by $2.5 M (FY 1994), by $.25 M (FY 1995), and may potentially understate costs …
Cost Management Competencies For Department Of Defense Program Managers, Brent R. Baxter, Kurt R. Bolin
Cost Management Competencies For Department Of Defense Program Managers, Brent R. Baxter, Kurt R. Bolin
Theses and Dissertations
The magnitude of money involved in the acquisition of defense systems and the public scrutiny resulting from cost overruns and program failures make cost management competence critical to program success. This research examined the cost management competencies required of defense program managers. A cost management competency model was developed from a foundation of past research. The model was evaluated through a mail survey of 682 intermediate and senior level military program managers in Air Force Materiel Command. The results provided by the 330 respondents indicate that 29 of the 47 competencies in the model were valuable to the program managers. …
Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact Or Fiction, David D. Christensen
Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact Or Fiction, David D. Christensen
Faculty Publications
Program managers are advocates by necessity, When taken to the extreme, program advocacy can result in the suppression of adverse information about the status of a program gram. Such was the case in the Navy's A-12 Program. In A-12 Administrative inquiry, Beach (1990) speculates that such abiding cultural problems were not unique to the Navy. To test that assertion, this paper examines cost overrun data on 64 completed acquisition contracts extracted from the Defense Acquisition Executive Summary database. Cost overruns at various contract completion points are compared with projected final cost overruns estimated by contractor and government personnel. 17 comparison …