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Logistic And Multiple Regression: The Two-Step Approach To Estimating Cost Growth, Daniel C. Genest
Logistic And Multiple Regression: The Two-Step Approach To Estimating Cost Growth, Daniel C. Genest
Theses and Dissertations
This study sought to predict cost growth in major Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs using logistic and multiple regression. In recent years, the use of statistical regression has proven to be successful in predicting the relationships associated with cost growth. This research follows on the work of Sipple (2002) and Bielecki (2003) and further explores the possibilities of using statistical regression to accurately estimate the dollar value associated with risk and uncertainty early in a program's life cycle. In doing so, the author intends to reduce cost growth by increasing the accuracy of the original cost estimates subsequently used …
Logistic And Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach To Accurately Estimate Cost Growth In Major Dod Weapon Systems, Matthew B. Rossetti
Logistic And Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach To Accurately Estimate Cost Growth In Major Dod Weapon Systems, Matthew B. Rossetti
Theses and Dissertations
This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study …