Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Cost estimating (2)
- Acquisitions program (1)
- Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (1)
- Bayesian updating (1)
- Beta distribution (1)
-
- Cost estimation (1)
- Cost factors (1)
- Electrical power systems (1)
- Forward operating bases (1)
- Funding (1)
- Lifecycle cost (1)
- Military contingency operations (1)
- Subject matter expert (1)
- Subjective uncertainty (1)
- Technology readiness level (TRL) (1)
- Triangular distribution (1)
- Work breakdown structure (WBS) (1)
Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Business
Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford
Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford
Theses and Dissertations
Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.
The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato
The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato
Theses and Dissertations
The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …
Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell
Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …
Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack
Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack
Theses and Dissertations
This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …
Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards
Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards
Theses and Dissertations
Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …
The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic
The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic
Theses and Dissertations
The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …