Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 2 of 2
Full-Text Articles in Business
Forecasting Research & Development Program Budgets Using The Weibull Model, Thomas W. Brown
Forecasting Research & Development Program Budgets Using The Weibull Model, Thomas W. Brown
Theses and Dissertations
Norden (1970) uses the Rayleigh, which is a degenerative of the Weibull, to model manpower on research and development (R&D) programs. Several research efforts extend his work including Lee, Hogue, and Gallagher (1997) who build R&D program budgets based on Rayleigh expenditures. We demonstrate the theoretical limitations to the Rayleigh model and present the Weibull model, which mitigates those limitations. Using 102 completed R&D defense programs, we develop regression models to predict the requisite shape and scale parameters to forecast Weibull-based budgets. Using the remaining 26 completed R&D programs to validate the robustness of our regression models, we show that …
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we …