Business Commons^™

Using Blockchain To Track Dod Funding And Auditing, Prithvi Prasanna

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) currently faces a significant problem when it comes to auditing and tracking financial transactions. The DoD has failed every audit since 2017 although it is gradually improving its auditable rating year after year. Concurrently, Blockchain is an emerging technology that has typically been used for cryptocurrencies but has slowly been adapted by private enterprises for their auditing and invoicing problems. This study investigates the value proposition of blockchain technology to improve DoD financial tracking and auditing. To test the hypothesis that blockchain is the optimal option for the DoD, this paper employs an industry blockchain …

The Effect Of Company Financial Health On The Likelihood Of Cost Overruns, Brady C. Weaver

Theses and Dissertations

Financial ratio analysis has long been used to determine the financial health of firms and project business performance. Despite the usefulness of financial ratio analysis, risk analysis in defense acquisitions largely ignores these indicators of company financial well-being. This research performs contingency table statistical analysis to determine if a relationship exists between company financial ratios and their future cost performance on Air Force contracts. The general findings are that poor financial ratios at the time of contract start are related to increased likelihood of cost overruns on that contract. Specifically, recent trends of a company’s current ratio in comparison to …

Analysis Of Cost And Schedule Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha J. Jones

Theses and Dissertations

This study uses both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate trends in cost and schedule estimates created by the Department of Defense for their Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) throughout the last five decades. For schedule growth percentages, we did not identify any statistically significant trend regarding increasing or decreasing schedule changes or variances of schedule estimates throughout the five decades analyzed. Examining the overall cost growth of MDAPs, a statistically significant difference between the Cost Growth Factors (CGFs) calculated between the 1990s and the 2010s was found, with the 2010s exhibiting lower CGFs. A downward trend in the variances …

Analysis Of Time-Phased Estimates Accuracy, Budget Profile And Under-Spending In Defense Acquisition Programs, Thinh Q. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

As fiscal resources become more limited due to the expanding range of mission needs, accurate cost estimating and budgeting have become more important than ever before. Accurate cost estimates allow the Department of Defense (DoD) to budget with confidence and to effectively communicate its needs to Congress. This research looks to analyze estimates from Air Force’s programs using Milestone B and Initial Operational Capability as the analysis window. Initial analysis of the linear interpolation of the percent budget change indicates that there is underspending in the earlier stages of acquisition programs’ development cycle. Additionally, looking at the cumulative budget change …

Analysis Of Beta Distribution For Subjective Uncertainty Analysis In Cost Models, Ryan D. Stafford

Theses and Dissertations

Subjective uncertainty exists within the realm of cost estimation. Typical methodology for subjective uncertainty involves elicitation from a subject matter expert to provide a high, low, and most likely value -- defining a triangular distribution -- to model said uncertainty. This manuscript explores ways to leverage research on elicitation geared towards defining a triangular distribution and provide a simple conversion to a beta distribution usable by cost analysts with various degrees of mathematical knowledge. Furthermore, this manuscript attempts to demonstrate the benefits of using a beta distribution through its application as a conjugate prior for Bayesian updating in cost models.

The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato

Theses and Dissertations

The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …

Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …

Improving Acquisitions In Science And Technology Programs Through Factor Development And Program Analysis, Eric A. Plack

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves a study of Air Force science and technology (S&T) programs which includes the creation of standard factors and a program analysis. There has been little prior cost research on S&T programs, which occur very early in the acquisition lifecycle. This leads the cost analyst to utilize estimating techniques such as analogy, factors, and parametric in order to develop budgets with minimal information. The absence of formal S&T cost reporting requirements and common cost elements necessitate a segregated two phased data analysis. The Factor Development phase accomplishes the development and creation of two new standard cost factors along …

Developing Standard Production Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Jordan S. Edwards

Theses and Dissertations

Cost estimators commonly use the analogy and factor method when developing Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) estimates. Previous studies discussing and developing factors for the production lifecycle phase have been limited in scope and statistical analysis efforts. This research significantly expands the currently available toolkit for Department of Defense cost analysts by updating the current database of historical data and exploring potential relationships through statistical testing. Specifically, 3,462 unique factors were created across nine level II Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements broken down into four categories; commodity type, contract type, contractor type, and service. The production cost factors were created …

The Utility Of Self-Assessment In Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy, Dana P. Luketic

Theses and Dissertations

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making – from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to …

A Case Study Of Epa Clauses As They Apply To Fixed Price Contracts, Trevor A. Enos

Theses and Dissertations

Adjusting fixed price contract prices over long periods of performance is vital to protect both the government and contractor from market price fluctuations. This is accomplished via an Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) clause which currently utilize forecasts of producer price indexes (PPI) as a baseline. There is currently a lack of research on if the use of these forecasts as a baseline for calculating EPAs is the best alternative. This research involves determining the validity of using Global Insight (GI) forecasts for the purpose of calculating EPAs in fixed price contracts. Two EPA clauses are examined as a case study …

An Analysis Of Profit Margin In Relation To The Better Buying Power Initiative, Jerry (Trey) L. Baker Iii

Theses and Dissertations

Recent Better Buying Power (BBP) initiatives have sought to better contractually align contractor profit with performance. Profit should incentivize efficiency in cost and schedule and only be awarded when earned. The current research seeks evidence that BBP has been effective in improving performance. The first part of the research examines the trends of profit margin and cost growth both before and after the implementation of the first BBP initiative. BBP recommended the use of incentive type contracts over award fee contracts, where appropriate. This research found an increased use of incentive type contracts and a reduced use of award fee …

Comparing Estimated To Actual Development Budgets For Air Force Space Programs, Christopher J. Elworth

Theses and Dissertations

The accuracy of budget estimates is vital in ensuring cost efficiency and decreasing the possibility of budget and schedule growth. The goal of this study was to determine when budget estimates increase and what may cause those increases. Percent schedule and linear interpolation was used to analyze the budget changes. Space program budget growth does not increase at a constant rate between Milestone B (MS B) and Initial Operational Capability (IOC). When an exponential curve was fit to the deviations in budget growth, the mean and median R2 for the programs in this study were .83 and .91, respectively. Many …

An Analysis Of Estimate Variance In Program Office Estimates, Benjamin J. Bonenfant

Theses and Dissertations

Past research has shown that predicting the cost growth within DoD systems is an important topic. Total program cost growth and predictors of program cost growth have been studied. Kozlak (2017) studied cost growth at four major reviews: Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability. This research attempts to assess cost growth and cost variance at similar points in a program life cycle. In the past the majority of studies have been done identifying programs as either: Acquisition Category (ACAT) I and non-ACAT I programs, or Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) and non-MDAP …

Developing Standard Emd Cost Factors For Major Defense Acquisition Program (Mdap) Platforms, Matthew R. Markman

Theses and Dissertations

This research involves the creation of standard factors that more accurately reflect observed outcomes in the development stages of major programs. Traditionally, estimation techniques such as analogy, parametric, engineering build-up, and factors are utilized to develop budgets and serve as the baseline for measuring project progress. This effort accomplishes the development and creation of 443 new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and service. The factors are developed for those elements that are "common" in a wide array of projects such as program management, systems engineering, data, training or …

Analysis Of Influences Of Separation Decisions In The Financial Management Career Field, Shauna Young

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to analyze influences on separation decisions of active duty Air Force financial management officers. Researchers tested nine variables to determine their separation implications. The tested variables were major command, age, prior enlisted service, spouse, commissioning source, AFIT cost analysis master’s degrees, engagement, crystallization of job alternatives, and exhaustion. Results proved that age, prior enlisted service, having a spouse, and being an Air Force Academy or AFIT graduate correlates to whether a financial management officer will separate from the Air Force. In addition, the engagement level or having a defined list of job alternatives readily …

Using Multiple And Logistic Regression To Estimate The Median Will-Cost And Probability Of Cost And Schedule Overrun For Program Managers, Ryan C. Trudelle

Theses and Dissertations

The main concern of a program manager is to manage the cost, schedule, and performance triad of a program. Historically, programs tend to meet the performance aspect at the expense of cost or schedule, or both. This research gives the acquisition community a set of tools that enables them to impartially analyze the cost and schedule of their programs, helping to mitigate these issues. Five regression models encompass this toolset; one to estimate the median program cost and four to identify the probability of realizing a given overrun. The cost model explains 81% of the variation in program acquisition using …

A Cost Benefit Analysis Of Emerging Led Water Purification Systems In Expeditionary Environments, Alicia D. Binggeli

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force is a rapid mobile force responsible for national defense and reaction to calls for humanitarian aid across the globe. Rapid Global Mobility is a major tenant of the Air Force strategy. It provides the nation its global reach, underpins its role as a global power, and ensures that tomorrow, just as today, the United States can respond quickly and decisively to unexpected challenges to its interests. The ability to produce or acquire potable water is an essential piece of this tenant. Reverse Osmosis Water Purifications Units (ROWPUs), the workhorse for all military units, provide all the necessary …

Engineering Change Orders And Their Impact On Dod Acquisition Contracts, Ian S. Cordell

Theses and Dissertations

Cost growth is a problem DoD wide. Cost Estimators attempt to remedy this problem by accounting for uncertainty in the estimates they complete. They use tools such as Engineering Change Orders (ECO’s) to account for the uncertainty, by applying a percentage to the final amount estimated. The following research gives the acquisition community a more precise tool to predict whether a DoD Acquisition Contract will have an Engineering Change Order, which can then be used also during programmatic cost estimating, and also a method for predicting the proper amount of ECO to apply when certain variables are present. The study …

A Longitudinal Study And Color Rating System Of Acquisition Cost Growth, Cory N. D'Amico

Theses and Dissertations

different angles have been looked at to try and discover how to better estimate cost, what causes cost growth, and how to mitigate it. This research addresses this through examining cost growth from a longitudinal perspective, evaluating cost growth factors at major program reviews, and assessing the cost growth by applying color rating metrics. The results of this analysis show that breaking cost growth into longitudinal segments of a programs lifecycle allows the true behavior of cost growth to be seen, when it can often be masked in the traditional approach of evaluating lifecycle cost growth. Additionally, when applying the …

Cost Analysis Reform: Where Do We Go From Here? A Delphi Study Of Views Of Leading Experts, Thomas W. Lamb

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DOD) has faced many fiscal challenges in recent years, and these challenges have driven cost saving initiatives across all services and career fields. Many improvement initiatives or new policies aimed at better estimating, controlling, and reducing costs have been initiated to meet fiscal challenges. The senior leaders within the cost analysis workforce are faced with the challenge of managing change within their organizations to improve cost analysis processes and practices, while continuing to provide key decision support in the form of ongoing quality cost estimates.

This purpose of this research is to generate applicable research thrust …

Predicting Cost Growth Using Programs Reviews And Milestones For Dod Aircraft, Scott J. Kozlak

Theses and Dissertations

Past research shows predicting cost growth is an important topic with DoD systems. Researchers have attempted to predict total program cost growth as well as identify predictors of program cost growth. Our research addresses this through examining cost growth at reviews and milestones along an aircrafts schedule. We assess cost growth factors at four major reviews, Critical Design Review, First Flight, Development Test and Evaluation End, and Initial Operating Capability. The first portion of the analysis focuses on identifying cost growth factors and percent of total cost growth at the four program reviews. The second portion identifies predictors of cost …

Earned Value Reporting On Agile Software Development Programs Within The Department Of Defense, Elizabeth G. Hodson

Theses and Dissertations

The correct measurement of earned value on agile software development programs has recently been identified as a concern by software developers implementing agile development methods. This research attempts to address the difficulties in reporting earned value on agile development programs, and the differences between the measures of completion in agile development versus earned value reporting. The major difference was identified to be in translating between the work originally planned and the work that was “recently” planned as part of the agile development process. This difference, if not transparent, leads to different measurements of earned value and inconsistent reports of a …

Determining The Optimal Work Breakdown Structure For Government Acquisition Contracts, Brian J. Fitzpatrick

Theses and Dissertations

The optimal level of Government Contract Work Breakdown Structure (G-CWBS) reporting for the purposes of Earned Value Management was inspected. The G-Score Metric was proposed, which can quantitatively grade a G-CWBS, based on a new method of calculating an Estimate At Completion (EAC) cost for each reported element. A random program generator created in R replicated the characteristics of DOD program artifacts retrieved from the Cost Analysis Data Enterprise (CADE) system. The generated artifacts were validated as a population, however validation at the demographic combination level using an artificial neural network was inconclusive. Comparative WBS forms were created for a …

Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez

Theses and Dissertations

Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability (IOC).We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in …

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flight Test Approval Process And Its Implications: A Methodological Approach To Capture And Evaluate Hidden Costs And Value In The Overall Process, Tuan U. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

The advancement in small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) technology has brought a new revolution in the military domain. Their uses have become more synonymous with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. Concerns over their flight test safety and accountability have been addressed in multiple policies to mitigate mishaps and increase proper accountability. However, current DoD and FAA mandated regulations and policies concerning UAV flight tests are sometimes considered slow and time-consuming, which may lead to delays in UAV research and development. This study explores the quantitative and qualitative measure of benefits associated with an abbreviated flight test process for SUAVs. Specifically, …

An Evaluation Of The Argentinean Basic Trainer Aircraft Domestic Development Project, Guillermo A. Stahl

Theses and Dissertations

The Argentine Air Force (AAF) is facing increasing challenges in maintaining and sustaining trainer aircraft. The current trainer aircraft used by the AAF face obsolescence issues and decreased serviceability. Argentina used to have the largest aircraft industry among the Latin America countries, but a number of factors such as not maintaining objectives and policies over time undermined its consolidation and were instrumental in Argentina losing its leadership position. To meet AAF requirements and revive Argentina's domestic aircraft industry, an indigenous basic trainer aircraft project is proposed. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the project's viability using a multi-criteria …

Minuteman Iii Cost Per Alert Hour Analysis, Allen R. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis analyzes the cost associated with the Minuteman III (MM III) weapon system. The research develops three models for determining MM III costs per alert hour (CPAH). The first model is based on the Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group cost per flying hour model. The model is modified to include depot level reparables, consumables, and personnel costs. The second model is based on the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Analysis Improvement Group cost per flying hour model and is formulated using service-wide data from the Air Force Total Ownership Cost tool. The third model is a …

Acquisition Program Problem Detection Using Text Mining Methods, Trevor P. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research provides program analysts and Department of Defense leadership with an approach to identify problems in real-time for acquisition contracts. Specifically, we test the abilities of statistical algorithms using text mining techniques to detect unusual changes in acquisition programs’ cost estimates at the completion of the programs. Currently, the government purchases monthly written reports, an informational tool on status of an acquisition program, but has not been integrated into problem prediction analysis. We center our research on the following two questions: First, can we quantify the qualitative written reports? Second, can we use these quantifications of the texts to …

Smoking In The United States Air Force: Trends, Most Prevalent Diseases And Their Association With Cost, Michail Gkoutouloudis

Theses and Dissertations

This research focuses on the smoking rates among the Active Duty Air Force (ADAF) personnel and the association of smoking and cost of hospitalization because of diseases related to smoking. Three types of analyses were used in this research. The Contingency Analysis was based on the data taken from the Air Force Web HA questionnaire. The Pivot Table Analysis and the Regression Analysis were based on a second data set associated with the cost of hospitalization. The Contingency Analysis showed that smoking in the U.S. Air Force is more prevalent among the enlisted, males, and the younger age groups. The …