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Finance and Financial Management

Air Force Institute of Technology

2004

Articles 1 - 12 of 12

Full-Text Articles in Business

Analysis And Forecasting Of U.S. Navy Operating And Support (O&S) Costs For Rotary Aircraft, Christopher J. Wilkes Mar 2004

Analysis And Forecasting Of U.S. Navy Operating And Support (O&S) Costs For Rotary Aircraft, Christopher J. Wilkes

Theses and Dissertations

This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Navy rotary aircraft. Three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Navy. The process begins by empirically analyzing Operating & Support cost categories for each helicopter. Trends were examined in CPFH. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1997 to 2003 for the CH-46D, the CH-53D, the MH-53E, the SH-60F, the UH-1N, and the UH-3H helicopters. The forecasting techniques explored were the 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear …

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A Comparative Analysis Of The Cost Of Oversight Of Major Defense Acquisition Programs Strictly Under The Direction Of The Department Of Defense 5000 Series Of Instructions, Gary P. Rousseau Mar 2004

A Comparative Analysis Of The Cost Of Oversight Of Major Defense Acquisition Programs Strictly Under The Direction Of The Department Of Defense 5000 Series Of Instructions, Gary P. Rousseau

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Department of Defense has been caught in a continual cycle of acquisition reform since its inception over two hundred years ago. The goal of acquisition reform has always been to find the perfect balance between the amount of program oversight and the amount of flexibility in which program managers are allowed to manage their programs. The only truth learned throughout this process is that defense acquisition does need oversight and that there is no cookie cutter pattern for oversight that will fit all types of acquisition programs equally well. That being said, the focus of this thesis …

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Logistic And Multiple Regression: The Two-Step Approach To Estimating Cost Growth, Daniel C. Genest Mar 2004

Logistic And Multiple Regression: The Two-Step Approach To Estimating Cost Growth, Daniel C. Genest

Theses and Dissertations

This study sought to predict cost growth in major Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs using logistic and multiple regression. In recent years, the use of statistical regression has proven to be successful in predicting the relationships associated with cost growth. This research follows on the work of Sipple (2002) and Bielecki (2003) and further explores the possibilities of using statistical regression to accurately estimate the dollar value associated with risk and uncertainty early in a program's life cycle. In doing so, the author intends to reduce cost growth by increasing the accuracy of the original cost estimates subsequently used …

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Analysis And Forecasting Of Army Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, John C. Hawkins Mar 2004

Analysis And Forecasting Of Army Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, John C. Hawkins

Theses and Dissertations

This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Army Helicopters. Specifically, three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Army. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1995 to 2003 for all MACOMs flying the AH-64A, the CH-47D, and the UH-60A helicopters. The number of MACOMs was then reduced to the top three with regard to total CPFH expenditure. The use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method were explored for each helicopter's data. …

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Creating Cost Growth Models For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Phase Of Acquisition Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Brandon M. Lucas Mar 2004

Creating Cost Growth Models For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Phase Of Acquisition Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Brandon M. Lucas

Theses and Dissertations

Cost growth remains a concern for cost analysts, program managers, senior DoD decision-makers, Congress, and even the American public. All of these people have a vested interest in the cost of DoD programs and most would like to see those costs decrease; as such, we need additional tools to help combat cost growth. Previous research creates the foundation for the use of a two-step methodology to help predict cost growth, which we follow closely. First, utilizing logistic regression we analyze whether specific program characteristics predict cost growth within the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase for combined RDT&E and procurement …

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Establishing A Foundation To Capture The Cost Of Oversight For A Major Defense Program Within The Information Technology (It) Acquisition Community, Monroe Neal Jr. Mar 2004

Establishing A Foundation To Capture The Cost Of Oversight For A Major Defense Program Within The Information Technology (It) Acquisition Community, Monroe Neal Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

In 1970 the Department of Defense introduced the Department of Defense Directive 5000 (DoD 5000) to standardize the acquisition process. The directive created oversight forums to ensure the policies and procedures created were followed, to track program progress, and to identify programs in trouble. Although oversight was essentially created to help reduce the cost of acquisitions, there is reason to believe that it may increase the costs. However, because only been a few studies have been conducted to estimate the cost of oversight, no one knows how much "oversight" actually costs individual programs. Numerous oversight processes are being used today, …

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Estimating Cost Growth In Engineering And Schedule Cost Categories Using A Two-Pronged Regression Approach, Chris J. Mcdaniel Mar 2004

Estimating Cost Growth In Engineering And Schedule Cost Categories Using A Two-Pronged Regression Approach, Chris J. Mcdaniel

Theses and Dissertations

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study …

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Logistic And Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach To Accurately Estimate Cost Growth In Major Dod Weapon Systems, Matthew B. Rossetti Mar 2004

Logistic And Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach To Accurately Estimate Cost Growth In Major Dod Weapon Systems, Matthew B. Rossetti

Theses and Dissertations

This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study …

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An Analysis Of Missile Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Christopher C. Abate Mar 2004

An Analysis Of Missile Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Christopher C. Abate

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) missile systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform (1 January 1991 to 31 December 1996) period and post reform (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001) period was subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid …

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Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher Mar 2004

Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher

Theses and Dissertations

This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Air Force Helicopters. Specifically, this research evaluates three separate forecasting techniques to predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Air Force. It starts by empirically analyzing the Operating and Support cost by CAIG categories for each helicopter. For forecasting purposes, the actual CPFH figures were compiled from FY96 to FY03 for a total of eight MAJCOMs flying the MH-53J/M, the HH-60G, or the UH-1N helicopters. The research explores the use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's …

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An Analysis Of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Richard A. Phillips Mar 2004

An Analysis Of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model, Richard A. Phillips

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) aircraft weapon systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts affected aircraft weapon system cost growth. A "pre-reform" (1 January 1991-31 December 1996) period and a "post reform" (1 January 1997-31 December 2001) period were subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program …

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Comparative Analysis On The Cost Of Oversight For The New National Security Space Acquisition Policy- A Delphi Method Approach, Darrin L. Dereus Mar 2004

Comparative Analysis On The Cost Of Oversight For The New National Security Space Acquisition Policy- A Delphi Method Approach, Darrin L. Dereus

Theses and Dissertations

For the past 50 years, the military's use of space for our national defense has increased exponentially. The use of space has increased so much that recent events have led to the approval for most space Major Defense Acquisition Programs to fall under their own process of oversight to track and monitor these programs. The largest reason for this change is due to the difference in spending profiles and current acquisition regulations that are not structured to meet these space expenditure plans. The key problem is no one knows, for sure, how much the oversight process actually costs and if …

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