Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Does The Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods For Eliciting Expert Judgement, Claire Cruickshank

Masters Theses

An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may …

Modeling Performance, Cost, Delivery, And Trip Distribution Of Demand Responsive Transit Systems With Zoning, Mahour Rahimi

Doctoral Dissertations

Demand responsive transit (DRT) services are expensive to operate, so it is crucial to understand the factors that drive the agency costs and be able to investigate and predict the effect of possible changes in specific operating parameters as well as demand and service coverage areas on total costs. In this research, we adopt the concept of the analytical model proposed by Daganzo (1978) to present continuum approximation (CA) models that can estimate important service related factors. As the first step, we propose three analytical models to approximate the operation related variables of DRT services; Fleet Size, Vehicle Hours Traveled …

Theory And Practice Of Supply Chain Synchronization, Michael Prokle

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop strategies to synchronize component procurement in assemble-to-order (ATO) production and overhaul operations. We focus on the high-tech and mass customization industries which are not only considered to be very important to create or keep U.S. manufacturing jobs, but also suffer most from component inventory burden. In the second chapter, we address the deterministic joint replenishment inventory problem with batch size constraints (JRPB). We characterize system regeneration points, derive a closed-form expression of the average product inventory, and formulate the problem of finding the optimal joint reorder interval to minimize inventory and ordering costs per unit …

Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep uncertainties resulting from climate change, demographic pressures, and rapidly evolving socioeconomic conditions are challenging the way that water planners design and operate large-scale infrastructure systems. Conventionally, water infrastructures have been developed using stationary methods, assuming that the underlying uncertainties can be derived from historical data or experience. However, these methods are less useful under deeply uncertain climate and socioeconomic conditions, in which the future can be substantially different from the past and cannot be expressed by well-defined probability distributions. The recognition of deep uncertainties in long-term water resources planning has led to the development of “decision-analytical” frameworks that do …

Modeling The Economic And Environmental Performance Of Offshore Wind Energy, Alexana Cranmer

Doctoral Dissertations

Offshore wind is a growing source of energy globally. Like any energy technology, it has impacts on the environment. In the case of renewable energy, we need a way to consider the environmental benefits as well as the environmental costs. This dissertation develops a set of models to examine the economic and environmental costs and benefits and the trade-offs between them. We ask how much offshore wind energy should be sited, and where should that offshore wind energy be located? The first model estimates the economic impact of wake interactions between wind farms. Wind farm sites are chosen through a …

Multi-Criteria Decision Making When Planning Sustainable Multimodal Transportation Routes In A Linear Corridor, Marie Louis

Doctoral Dissertations

In urban and suburban locations, public transit can be seen as an effective mode of daily transportation. The majority of the time, travelers would seek the cheapest, shortest, and possibly most eco-friendly means of transit. When designing public transit network systems, transportation planners and decision-makers, with input from stakeholders, should strive to optimize transportation services to meet the needs of the population most efficiently and at the lowest cost, that is, providing a transportation system that s the three E's of the sustainability concept: environment, social equity, and economic. Previous studies have focused on sustainability as the primary concern in …

Explorations Into Machine Learning Techniques For Precipitation Nowcasting, Aditya Nagarajan

Masters Theses

Recent advances in cloud-based big-data technologies now makes data driven solutions feasible for increasing numbers of scientific computing applications. One such data driven solution approach is machine learning where patterns in large data sets are brought to the surface by finding complex mathematical relationships within the data. Nowcasting or short-term prediction of rainfall in a given region is an important problem in meteorology. In this thesis we explore the nowcasting problem through a data driven approach by formulating it as a machine learning problem.

State-of-the-art nowcasting systems today are based on numerical models which describe the physical processes leading to …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Retail Analytics And Optimization For Store-Wide Shelf-Space Management, Tulay Flamand

Doctoral Dissertations

A major constituent of modern-time economies, retailing is a vibrant business sector that is marked by high competition, tight profit margins, novel business strategies in online and in-store environments, and demanding consumers. Driven by massive volumes of point-of-sale data, retail analytics has become instrumental for unveiling better managerial practices. Our research falls under the umbrella of retail shelf space management. In self-service outlets, shelf space constitutes a scarce resource and its management is central to ensuring an attractive shopping experience and a profitable business. We investigate how, under a given store layout, the allocation of product categories can be optimized …

Stochastic Network Design: Models And Scalable Algorithms, Xiaojian Wu

Doctoral Dissertations

Many natural and social phenomena occur in networks. Examples include the spread of information, ideas, and opinions through a social network, the propagation of an infectious disease among people, and the spread of species within an interconnected habitat network. The ability to modify a phenomenon towards some desired outcomes has widely recognized benefits to our society and the economy. The outcome of a phenomenon is largely determined by the topology or properties of its underlying network. A decision maker can take management actions to modify a network and, therefore, change the outcome of the phenomenon. A management action is an …

The Effect Of Interruptions On Primary Task Performance In Safety-Critical Environments, Cheryl Ann Nicholas

Doctoral Dissertations

Safety critical systems in medicine utilize alarms to signal potentially life threatening situations to professionals and patients. In particular, in the medical field multiple alarms from equipment are activated daily and often simultaneously. There are a number of alarms which require caregivers to take breaks in complex, primary tasks to attend to the interruption task which is signaled by the alarm. The motivation for this research is the knowledge that, in general, interrupting tasks can have a potentially negative impact on performance and outcomes of the primary task. The focus of this research is on the effect of an interrupting …

Design, Implementation, And Evaluation Of A User Training Program For Integrating Health Information Technology Into Clinical Processes, Ze He

Doctoral Dissertations

Health information technology (IT) implementation can be costly, and remains a challenging problem with mixed outcomes on patient safety and quality of care. Systems engineering and IT management experts have advocated the use of sociotechnical models to understand the impact of health IT on user and organizational factors. Sociotechnical models suggest the need for user-centered implementation approaches, such as user training and support, and focus on processes to mitigate the negative impact and facilitate optimal IT use during training. The training design and development should also follow systematic processes guided by instructional development models. It should take into account of …

Aircraft Demand Forecasting, Kayla M. Monahan

Masters Theses

This thesis aims to forecast aircraft demand in the aerospace and defense industry, specifically aircraft orders and deliveries. Orders are often placed by airline companies with aircraft manufacturers, and then suddenly canceled due to changes in plans. Therefore, at some point during the three-year lead time, the number of orders placed and realized deliveries may be quite different. As a result, orders and deliveries are very difficult to predict and are influenced by many different factors. Among these factors are past trends, macroeconomic indicators as well as aircraft sales measures. These predictor variables were analyzed thoroughly, then used with time …

Strategies For Reducing Supplier Risk: Inputs Into The Supply Chain, Christopher A. Greene

Masters Theses

There are many aspects to consider when managing an entire supply chain from procurement to fulfillment. Complex assemblies require hundreds of components, sourced from all corners of the globe, to come together in a synchronized fashion. Given the magnitude of the supply chain, high quality standards, and significantly increased outsourcing, there is a strong need to monitor supplier risk and quickly identify and mitigate potential problems. Moreover, the continuous pressure to reduce resources and pressure to cut costs, further increases the need for the development of procedures and tools that can quickly and efficiently address these potential supply chain risks. …

Simulation Of 48-Hour Queue Dynamics For A Semi-Private Hospital Ward Considering Blocked Beds, Wei Chen

Masters Theses

This thesis study evaluates access to care at an internal medicine unit with solely semi-private rooms at Baystate Medical Center (BMC). Patients are divided into two types: Type I patient consumes one bed; Type II patient occupies two beds or an entire semi-private room as a private space for clinical reasons, resulting in one empty but unavailable (blocked) bed per Type II patient. Because little data is available on blocked beds and Type II patients, unit-level hospital bed planning studies that consider blocked beds have been lacking. This thesis study bridges that gap by building a single-stream and a two-stream …

Role Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies In Near Term Energy Policy, Olaitan P. Olaleye

Doctoral Dissertations

In the first part of this thesis, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D portfolios of Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-Fuels, Bio-Electricity and Batteries for electric transportation. We show that CCS significantly complements Bio-Electricity, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. From the probabilistic analysis of future energy scenarios we observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; portfolios with only renewables tend to be stochastically dominated by others; and that there are clear decreasing marginal returns to scale. We …

Evaluation Of A Training Program (Strap) Designed To Decrease Young Drivers Secondary Task Engagement In High Risk Scenarios, Akhilesh Krishnan

Masters Theses

Distracted driving involving secondary tasks is known to lead to an increased likelihood of being involved in motor vehicle crashes. Some secondary tasks are unnecessary and should never be performed. But other secondary tasks, e.g., operating the defroster, are critical to safe driving. Ideally, the driver should schedule when to perform the critical tasks such that the likelihood of a hazard materializing is relatively small during the performance of the secondary task. The current study evaluates a training program -- STRAP (Secondary Task Regulatory & Anticipatory Program) -- which is designed to make drivers aware of latent hazards …

Application Of Techniques For Map Estimation To Distributed Constraint Optimization Problem, Yoonheui Kim

Doctoral Dissertations

The problem of efficiently finding near-optimal decisions in multi-agent systems has become increasingly important because of the growing number of multi-agent applications with large numbers of agents operating in real-world environments. In these systems, agents are often subject to tight resource constraints and agents have only local views. When agents have non-global constraints, each of which is independent, the problem can be formalized as a distributed constraint optimization problem (DCOP). The DCOP is closely associated with the problem of inference on graphical models. Many approaches from inference literature have been adopted to solve DCOPs. We focus on the Max-Sum algorithm …

Quality Competition In Supply Chain Networks With Applications To Information Asymmetry, Product Differentiation, Outsourcing, And Supplier Selection, Dong Li

Doctoral Dissertations

The quality of the products produced and delivered in supply chain networks is essential for consumers' safety, well-being, and benefits, and for firms' profitability and reputation. However, because of the complexity of today's large-scale highly globalized supply chain networks, along with issues such as the growth in outsourcing and in global procurement, as well as the information asymmetry associated with quality, supply chain networks are more exposed to both domestic and international quality failures. In this dissertation, I contribute to the equilibrium and dynamic modeling and analysis of quality competition in supply chain networks under scenarios of information asymmetry, product …

Guidelines For Scheduling In Primary Care: An Empirically Driven Mathematical Programming Approach, Hyun Jung Alvarez Oh

Doctoral Dissertations

Primary care practices play a vital role in healthcare delivery since they are the first point of contact for most patients, and provide health prevention, counseling, education, diagnosis and treatment. Practices, however, face a complex appointment scheduling problem because of the variety of patient conditions, the mix of appointment types, the uncertain service times with providers and non-provider staff (nurses/medical assistants), and no-show rates which all compound into a highly variable and unpredictable flow of patients. The end result is an imbalance between provider idle time and patient waiting time. To understand the realities of the scheduling problem we analyze …

Resilience Of Transportation Infrastructure Systems To Climatic Extreme Events, Alexandra C. Testa

Masters Theses

A topology-based approach has been used to measure the resilience of a highway network to climatic events. Civil infrastructure systems are inarguably critical to the everyday functions of society. Because such systems are regionally distributed, their components undergo a wide range of hazard intensities, often dependent on their relative locations. The ability of an infrastructure system to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from extreme events is paramount to its ability to continuously serve users. The topological properties of a network can provide a good means to assess the resilience of the system which is adequate to comprehend the preparedness …

X-Band Dual Polarization Phased-Array Radar For Meteorological Applications, Krzysztof Orzel

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation details the development and operation of a novel dual-polarized Phase-Tilt Weather Radar (PTWR) designed for meteorological applications. The use of radar has a well-documented history in detection and classification of weather phenomena, but due to the limited mechanical scanning speed, its usage for severe weather observations remains far from ideal. The PTWR utilizes phased-array technology and provides unique capabilities such as smart scanning, fast scan update, and tracking. This technology is considered a candidate for a replacement and consolidation of the current US weather and surveillance radar networks. The dissertation can be divided into three parts. First, the …

Resource And Supply Allocation And Relief Center Location For Humanitarian Logistics, Guven Ince

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation examines two salient issues that arise in the strategic planning of disaster management operations for providing relief to populations that are impacted by a disaster, such as an earthquake. The first issue is the alleviation of destitution faced by affected populations in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. The second is the establishment of an infrastructure for provision of relief, for a much longer period of time, until normalcy is restored. Central to the alleviation of destitution is the avoidance of critical shortages in meeting the demand for relief supplies. The literature on pro-active and strategic planning of …

Flexibility And Capacity Allocation Under Uncertain Prescheduled (Non-Urgent) Demand And Same-Day (Urgent) Demand In Primary Care Practices, Xiaoling Gao

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we are applying and extending well-established concepts of flexibility in manufacturing and service sectors to a healthcare setting: primary care. In the healthcare scenarios, appointments are booked over time and thus future resource capacity is sequentially being allocated under partial demand information. In manufacturing flexibility is typically presented as a technology choice that requires heavy investment for expensive flexible equipment, or highly cross-trained workers, but can then be used at little or no cost to satisfy demand. In primary care, however, the resources are inherently flexible, as primary care physicians are naturally able to see other panel's …

Model-Based Guidance For Human-Intensive Processes, Stefan Christov

Doctoral Dissertations

Human-intensive processes (HIPs), such as medical processes involving coordination among doctors, nurses, and other medical staff, often play a critical role in society. Despite considerable work and progress in error reduction, human errors are still a major concern for many HIPs. To address this problem of human errors in HIPs, this thesis investigates two approaches for online process guidance, i.e., for guiding process performers while a process is being executed. Both approaches rely on monitoring a process execution and base the guidance they provide on a detailed formal process model that captures the recommended ways to perform the corresponding HIP. …

Syllabus: Introduction To Mechanical And Industrial Engineering, Erin Baker

Sustainability Education Resources

Student teams will explore engineering analysis and design under the theme of Engineering Sustainability: Energy and the Environment, incorporating economics, environmental impacts, and social concerns. ENGIN 113 is intended to introduce students to the fields of Mechanical Engineering and Industrial Engineering, and to provide students with important skills that they will need to be successful in college and the professional world. The specific course objectives are to:  Develop effective teamwork skills, including peer- and self-evaluation.  Practice critical thinking and engineering problem solving.  Take a systems approach to design, incorporating economics, environment, and social concerns  Develop information …

Classroom Exercise: Intro To Mechanical And Industrial Engineering, Erin Baker

Sustainability Education Resources

This classroom exercise was developed for Introduction to Mechanical and Industrial Engineering; Engineering Sustainability: Energy and the Environment. This is a freshman class with a class size of about 200. It is intended to get students to think critically about energy in the economy; to recognize the power of technological change; and to inspire them to work toward solving climate change.

How Much Do In-Vehicle Tasks With Swapping, Switching And Spillover Effects Interfere With Drivers’ Ability To Detect And Respond To Threats On The Forward Roadway?, Siby Samuel

Doctoral Dissertations

Distractions have long been associated with crashes. A review of the literature shows drivers engaging in secondary tasks to be three times as likely to crash as compared to attentive drivers. Although several studies report that excessively long glances away from the forward roadway elevate the risk of crashes, little research has been conducted to determine how long a driver needs to glance towards the forward roadway in between glances inside the vehicle to perform a secondary task in order to detect threats present in or emerging from the forward roadway. To determine this, drivers were asked to perform simulated …

Optimizing Consumer-Centric Assortment Planning Under Cross-Selling Effects, Ameera Ibrahim

Doctoral Dissertations

Central to modern-time, consumer-focused retailing is the ability to provide attractive and reasonably-priced product assortments for different customer profiles. To this end, retailers can benefit from the use of data analytics in order to identify distinct customer segments, each characterized by their buying power, shopping behavior, and preferences. Further, retailers can also benefit from a careful examination of alternative procurement options and cost levers associated with products that are considered for inclusion in the assortment. Issues of assortment planning lie at the interface of operations and marketing. Profitable planning trade-offs can be identified using an optimization methodology and are simultaneously …

Defining, Evaluating, And Improving The Process Of Verifying Patient Identifiers, Junghee Jo

Doctoral Dissertations

Patient identification errors are a major cause of medication errors. During medication administration, failure to identify patients correctly can lead to patients receiving incorrect medications, perhaps resulting in adverse drug events and even death. Most medication error studies to date have focused on reporting patient misidentification statistics from case studies, on classifying types of patient identification errors, or on evaluating the impact of technology on the patient identification process, but few have proposed specific strategies or guidelines to decrease patient identification errors. This thesis aims to improve the verification of patient identifiers (VPI) process by making three key contributions to …