Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Drivers’ Hazard Avoidance During Vehicle Automation: Impact Of Mental Models And Implications For Training, Ganesh Pai Mangalore

Doctoral Dissertations

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are vehicle automation systems that have become more accessible and prevalent in vehicles in recent years. But the introduction of such technologies introduces new human factors challenges. Past literature suggests that users of vehicle automation lack the necessary and appropriate knowledge about their automation system. This may play a negative role in their hazard avoidance abilities when driving with automation features. Improving mental models and knowledge could generally lead to safer interactions with vehicle automation systems, but any effort to develop hazard avoidance skills when driving with vehicle automation is impeded by the lack of …

Resource Allocation In Subsidy Welfare Programs: Managerial Insights For Nonprofits, Governments, And Service Providers, Wei Wei

Doctoral Dissertations

Subsidy welfare programs provide financial assistance to economically disadvantaged individuals and families to access essential and life-altering services (e.g., education, child care, and housing) that they might not otherwise have access to. Access to these services is considered critical to achieving a better and more sustainable future for all. As such, these high-quality services are directly related to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, which were adopted as a universal call to action to end poverty, save the planet and improve the lives and prospects of everyone, everywhere." In particular, the need for these affordable and high-quality services has been …

Mining High Impact Combinations Of Conditions From The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Arjun Mohan

Masters Theses

The condition of multimorbidity — the presence of two or more medical conditions in an individual — is a growing phenomenon worldwide. In the United States, multimorbid patients represent more than a third of the population and the trend is steadily increasing in an already aging population. There is thus a pressing need to understand the patterns in which multimorbidity occurs, and to better understand the nature of the care that is required to be provided to such patients.

In this thesis, we use data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) from the years 2011 to 2015 to identify …

A Digital Twin Framework For Production Planning Optimization: Applications For Make-To-Order Manufacturers, Ron Mallach

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop a Digital Twin framework for manufacturing systems and apply it to various production planning and scheduling problems faced by Make-To-Order (MTO) firms. While this framework can be used to digitally represent a particular manufacturing environment with high fidelity, our focus is in using it to generate realistic settings to test production planning and scheduling algorithms in practice. These algorithms have traditionally been tested by either translating a practical situation into the necessary modeling constructs, without discussion of the assumptions and inaccuracies underlying this translation, or by generating random instances of the modeling constructs, without assessing …

Decision-Analytic Models Using Reinforcement Learning To Inform Dynamic Sequential Decisions In Public Policy, Seyedeh Nazanin Khatami

Doctoral Dissertations

We developed decision-analytic models specifically suited for long-term sequential decision-making in the context of large-scale dynamic stochastic systems, focusing on public policy investment decisions. We found that while machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms provide the most suitable frameworks for such analyses, multiple challenges arise in its successful adaptation. We address three specific challenges in two public sectors, public health and climate policy, through the following three essays. In Essay I, we developed a reinforcement learning (RL) model to identify optimal sequence of testing and retention-in-care interventions to inform the national strategic plan “Ending the HIV Epidemic in the US”. …

Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako

Doctoral Dissertations

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers. We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …

Factors Affecting Drivers’ Off-Road Glance Behavior While Interacting With In-Vehicle Voice Interfaces – Insights From A Secondary Data Analysis, Fangda Zhang

Doctoral Dissertations

Given the prevalence of in-vehicle technologies and the critical role of visual attention plays in driving safety, this dissertation work aimed to fill the research gap that 1) little was known about the visual demands associated with a driver engaging with in-vehicle voice interfaces; 2) the concurrent effect of interacting with in-vehicle voice interfaces and other commonly discussed individual-level factors has barely been targeted. This research work was a secondary data analysis based on a large-scale field experiment wherein 144 participants had been recruited and driven a test vehicle while performing a series of tasks using voice-based interfaces. Pre- and …

Optimal Mammography Schedule Estimates Under Varying Disease Burden, Infrastructure Availability, And Other Cause Mortality: A Comparative Analyses Of Six Low- And Middle- Income Countries, Shifali Shifali

Masters Theses

Low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) have a higher mortality-to-incidence ratio for breast cancer compared to high-income countries (HICs) because of late-stage diagnosis. Mammography screening is recommended for early diagnosis, however, current screening guidelines are only generalized by economic disparities, and are based on extrapolation of data from randomized controlled trials in HICs, which have different disease burdens and all-cause mortality compared to LMICs. Moreover, the infrastructure capacity in LMICs is far below that needed for adopting current screening guidelines. This study analyzes the impact of disease burden, infrastructure availability, and other cause mortality on optimal mammography screening schedules for LMICs. Further, these …

Robust And Sustainable Energy Pathways To Reach Mexico’S Climate Goals, Rodrigo Mercado Fernandez

Doctoral Dissertations

As countries set climate change goals for adaptation and mitigation efforts, there are many questions regarding to how to reach these targets. These efforts will necessitate the transition of our electricity infrastructure from relying on conventional electricity generation technologies including natural gas, coal and oil, to clean energy generation with renewables. Through the three essays presented in this dissertation, we explore various pathways of development for the electricity system to reach long term climate change goals. We are interested in identifying: Is there a unique optimal development option or are there various? How do different mixes of electricity generation technologies …

Modeling Of Electrical Grid Systems To Evaluate Sustainable Electricity Generation In Pakistan, Muhammad Mustafa Amjad

Masters Theses

Pakistan has always had a history of severe energy shortfalls, which rose up to an alarming 33% in 2013. This situation was countered by investments in the energy sector through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which were unfortunately largely based on brown fuels. Although beneficial in the short term, these investments do not bode well for the climate scenario of Pakistan, with various parts of the country already having experienced temperatures rise of 1-3°C. To ensure that the current situation doesn’t exacerbate and is tackled in a timely manner, this research aims to examine how the untapped potential of …

Three Essays On Data-Driven Optimization For Scheduling In Manufacturing And Healthcare, Ekin Koker

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays on data-driven optimization for scheduling in manufacturing and healthcare. In Chapter 1, we briefly introduce the optimization problems tackled in these essays. The first of these essays deals with machine scheduling problems. In Chapter 2, we compare the effectiveness of direct positional variables against relative positional variables computationally in a variety of machine scheduling problems and we present our results. The second essay deals with a scheduling problem in healthcare: the team primary care practice. In Chapter 3, we build upon the two-stage stochastic integer programming model introduced by Alvarez Oh (2015) to solve …

Power System Planning In Disparate Systems: Modeling Sustainability And Electricity Access, Destenie Nock

Doctoral Dissertations

Electricity goals around the world tend to focus on increasing social benefit through one of two avenues: (1) increasing overall system sustainability or (2) increasing access to electricity. These goals guide the transition of the power system. In pursuit of these goals decision makers will need modeling tools that can inform decisions, in a way that is flexible enough to include a wide range of preferences and goals. It is clear that the future generation mix of the power system will change, but the most sustainable solution, will change based on a country's goals. This dissertation will explore the various …

Does The Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods For Eliciting Expert Judgement, Claire Cruickshank

Masters Theses

An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations were directly comparable, the differences between the modes was not significant. Consequently, a carefully designed online elicitation may …

Theory And Practice Of Supply Chain Synchronization, Michael Prokle

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop strategies to synchronize component procurement in assemble-to-order (ATO) production and overhaul operations. We focus on the high-tech and mass customization industries which are not only considered to be very important to create or keep U.S. manufacturing jobs, but also suffer most from component inventory burden. In the second chapter, we address the deterministic joint replenishment inventory problem with batch size constraints (JRPB). We characterize system regeneration points, derive a closed-form expression of the average product inventory, and formulate the problem of finding the optimal joint reorder interval to minimize inventory and ordering costs per unit …

Modeling The Economic And Environmental Performance Of Offshore Wind Energy, Alexana Cranmer

Doctoral Dissertations

Offshore wind is a growing source of energy globally. Like any energy technology, it has impacts on the environment. In the case of renewable energy, we need a way to consider the environmental benefits as well as the environmental costs. This dissertation develops a set of models to examine the economic and environmental costs and benefits and the trade-offs between them. We ask how much offshore wind energy should be sited, and where should that offshore wind energy be located? The first model estimates the economic impact of wake interactions between wind farms. Wind farm sites are chosen through a …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Retail Analytics And Optimization For Store-Wide Shelf-Space Management, Tulay Flamand

Doctoral Dissertations

A major constituent of modern-time economies, retailing is a vibrant business sector that is marked by high competition, tight profit margins, novel business strategies in online and in-store environments, and demanding consumers. Driven by massive volumes of point-of-sale data, retail analytics has become instrumental for unveiling better managerial practices. Our research falls under the umbrella of retail shelf space management. In self-service outlets, shelf space constitutes a scarce resource and its management is central to ensuring an attractive shopping experience and a profitable business. We investigate how, under a given store layout, the allocation of product categories can be optimized …

Stochastic Network Design: Models And Scalable Algorithms, Xiaojian Wu

Doctoral Dissertations

Many natural and social phenomena occur in networks. Examples include the spread of information, ideas, and opinions through a social network, the propagation of an infectious disease among people, and the spread of species within an interconnected habitat network. The ability to modify a phenomenon towards some desired outcomes has widely recognized benefits to our society and the economy. The outcome of a phenomenon is largely determined by the topology or properties of its underlying network. A decision maker can take management actions to modify a network and, therefore, change the outcome of the phenomenon. A management action is an …

The Effect Of Interruptions On Primary Task Performance In Safety-Critical Environments, Cheryl Ann Nicholas

Doctoral Dissertations

Safety critical systems in medicine utilize alarms to signal potentially life threatening situations to professionals and patients. In particular, in the medical field multiple alarms from equipment are activated daily and often simultaneously. There are a number of alarms which require caregivers to take breaks in complex, primary tasks to attend to the interruption task which is signaled by the alarm. The motivation for this research is the knowledge that, in general, interrupting tasks can have a potentially negative impact on performance and outcomes of the primary task. The focus of this research is on the effect of an interrupting …

Aircraft Demand Forecasting, Kayla M. Monahan

Masters Theses

This thesis aims to forecast aircraft demand in the aerospace and defense industry, specifically aircraft orders and deliveries. Orders are often placed by airline companies with aircraft manufacturers, and then suddenly canceled due to changes in plans. Therefore, at some point during the three-year lead time, the number of orders placed and realized deliveries may be quite different. As a result, orders and deliveries are very difficult to predict and are influenced by many different factors. Among these factors are past trends, macroeconomic indicators as well as aircraft sales measures. These predictor variables were analyzed thoroughly, then used with time …

Simulation Of 48-Hour Queue Dynamics For A Semi-Private Hospital Ward Considering Blocked Beds, Wei Chen

Masters Theses

This thesis study evaluates access to care at an internal medicine unit with solely semi-private rooms at Baystate Medical Center (BMC). Patients are divided into two types: Type I patient consumes one bed; Type II patient occupies two beds or an entire semi-private room as a private space for clinical reasons, resulting in one empty but unavailable (blocked) bed per Type II patient. Because little data is available on blocked beds and Type II patients, unit-level hospital bed planning studies that consider blocked beds have been lacking. This thesis study bridges that gap by building a single-stream and a two-stream …

Role Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies In Near Term Energy Policy, Olaitan P. Olaleye

Doctoral Dissertations

In the first part of this thesis, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D portfolios of Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-Fuels, Bio-Electricity and Batteries for electric transportation. We show that CCS significantly complements Bio-Electricity, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. From the probabilistic analysis of future energy scenarios we observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; portfolios with only renewables tend to be stochastically dominated by others; and that there are clear decreasing marginal returns to scale. We …

Application Of Techniques For Map Estimation To Distributed Constraint Optimization Problem, Yoonheui Kim

Doctoral Dissertations

The problem of efficiently finding near-optimal decisions in multi-agent systems has become increasingly important because of the growing number of multi-agent applications with large numbers of agents operating in real-world environments. In these systems, agents are often subject to tight resource constraints and agents have only local views. When agents have non-global constraints, each of which is independent, the problem can be formalized as a distributed constraint optimization problem (DCOP). The DCOP is closely associated with the problem of inference on graphical models. Many approaches from inference literature have been adopted to solve DCOPs. We focus on the Max-Sum algorithm …

Guidelines For Scheduling In Primary Care: An Empirically Driven Mathematical Programming Approach, Hyun Jung Alvarez Oh

Doctoral Dissertations

Primary care practices play a vital role in healthcare delivery since they are the first point of contact for most patients, and provide health prevention, counseling, education, diagnosis and treatment. Practices, however, face a complex appointment scheduling problem because of the variety of patient conditions, the mix of appointment types, the uncertain service times with providers and non-provider staff (nurses/medical assistants), and no-show rates which all compound into a highly variable and unpredictable flow of patients. The end result is an imbalance between provider idle time and patient waiting time. To understand the realities of the scheduling problem we analyze …

Resource And Supply Allocation And Relief Center Location For Humanitarian Logistics, Guven Ince

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation examines two salient issues that arise in the strategic planning of disaster management operations for providing relief to populations that are impacted by a disaster, such as an earthquake. The first issue is the alleviation of destitution faced by affected populations in the immediate aftermath of a disaster. The second is the establishment of an infrastructure for provision of relief, for a much longer period of time, until normalcy is restored. Central to the alleviation of destitution is the avoidance of critical shortages in meeting the demand for relief supplies. The literature on pro-active and strategic planning of …

Flexibility And Capacity Allocation Under Uncertain Prescheduled (Non-Urgent) Demand And Same-Day (Urgent) Demand In Primary Care Practices, Xiaoling Gao

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we are applying and extending well-established concepts of flexibility in manufacturing and service sectors to a healthcare setting: primary care. In the healthcare scenarios, appointments are booked over time and thus future resource capacity is sequentially being allocated under partial demand information. In manufacturing flexibility is typically presented as a technology choice that requires heavy investment for expensive flexible equipment, or highly cross-trained workers, but can then be used at little or no cost to satisfy demand. In primary care, however, the resources are inherently flexible, as primary care physicians are naturally able to see other panel's …

Optimizing Consumer-Centric Assortment Planning Under Cross-Selling Effects, Ameera Ibrahim

Doctoral Dissertations

Central to modern-time, consumer-focused retailing is the ability to provide attractive and reasonably-priced product assortments for different customer profiles. To this end, retailers can benefit from the use of data analytics in order to identify distinct customer segments, each characterized by their buying power, shopping behavior, and preferences. Further, retailers can also benefit from a careful examination of alternative procurement options and cost levers associated with products that are considered for inclusion in the assortment. Issues of assortment planning lie at the interface of operations and marketing. Profitable planning trade-offs can be identified using an optimization methodology and are simultaneously …

Operational Planning In Combined Heat And Power Systems, Hariharan Gopalakrishnan

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation presents methodologies for operational planning in Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems. The subject of experimentation is the University of Massachusetts CHP system, which is a 22 MWe/640 MBh system for a district energy application. Systems like this have complex energy flow networks due to multiple interconnected thermodynamic components like gas and steam turbines, boilers and heat recovery steam generators and also interconnection with centralized electric grids. In district energy applications, heat and power requirements vary over 24 hour periods (planning horizon) due to changing weather conditions, time-of-day factors and consumer requirements. System thermal performance is highly dependent …

Stochastic Models For Capacity Planning In Healthcare Delivery: Case Studies In An Outpatient, Inpatient And Surgical Setting, Asli Ozen

Doctoral Dissertations

U.S. healthcare system has become far too complex and costly to sustain and operations research has much to contribute in improving health systems by addressing a large spectrum of problems. We study capacity planning in healthcare while considering the case-mix of patients, using stochastic modeling in different application areas: primary care, inpatient bed allocation and (spine) surgery scheduling. This body of work was developed over four years of collaborative research with hospitals and healthcare providers. The main objective of our research in primary care is to optimize the patient mix of primary care physicians in a group practice to maximize …

Interpreting, Stephanie Jo Kent

Doctoral Dissertations

What do community interpreting for the Deaf in western societies, conference interpreting for the European Parliament, and language brokering in international management have in common? Academic research and professional training have historically emphasized the linguistic and cognitive challenges of interpreting, neglecting or ignoring the social aspects that structure communication. All forms of interpreting are inherently social; they involve relationships among at least three people and two languages. The contexts explored here, American Sign Language/English interpreting and spoken language interpreting within the European Parliament, show that simultaneous interpreting involves attitudes, norms and values about intercultural communication that overemphasize information and discount …