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The Hurwicz Decision Rule’S Relationship To Decision Making With The Triangle And Beta Distributions And Exponential Utility, Sarat Sivaprasad, Cameron A. MacKenzie 2018 Iowa State University

The Hurwicz Decision Rule’S Relationship To Decision Making With The Triangle And Beta Distributions And Exponential Utility, Sarat Sivaprasad, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Cameron A. MacKenzie

Non-probabilistic approaches to decision making have been proposed for situations in which an individual does not have enough information to assess probabilities over an uncertainty. One non-probabilistic method is to use intervals in which an uncertainty has a minimum and maximum but nothing is assumed about the relative likelihood of any value within the interval. The Hurwicz decision rule in which a parameter trades off between pessimism and optimism generalizes the current rules for making decisions with intervals. This article analyzes the relationship between intervals based on the Hurwicz rule and traditional decision analysis using a few probability distributions and ...


The Hurwicz Decision Rule’S Relationship To Decision Making With The Triangle And Beta Distributions And Exponential Utility, Sarat Sivaprasad, Cameron A. MacKenzie 2018 Iowa State University

The Hurwicz Decision Rule’S Relationship To Decision Making With The Triangle And Beta Distributions And Exponential Utility, Sarat Sivaprasad, Cameron A. Mackenzie

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

Non-probabilistic approaches to decision making have been proposed for situations in which an individual does not have enough information to assess probabilities over an uncertainty. One non-probabilistic method is to use intervals in which an uncertainty has a minimum and maximum but nothing is assumed about the relative likelihood of any value within the interval. The Hurwicz decision rule in which a parameter trades off between pessimism and optimism generalizes the current rules for making decisions with intervals. This article analyzes the relationship between intervals based on the Hurwicz rule and traditional decision analysis using a few probability distributions and ...


Call For Abstracts - Resrb 2018, June 18-20, Brussels, Belgium, Wojciech M. Budzianowski 2017 Wojciech Budzianowski Consulting Services

Call For Abstracts - Resrb 2018, June 18-20, Brussels, Belgium, Wojciech M. Budzianowski

Wojciech Budzianowski

No abstract provided.


Registration Form Resrb 2018, Wojciech M. Budzianowski 2017 Wojciech Budzianowski Consulting Services

Registration Form Resrb 2018, Wojciech M. Budzianowski

Wojciech Budzianowski

No abstract provided.


Abstract Template Resrb 2018, Wojciech M. Budzianowski 2017 Wojciech Budzianowski Consulting Services

Abstract Template Resrb 2018, Wojciech M. Budzianowski

Wojciech Budzianowski

No abstract provided.


Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton 2017 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Airport Security Investment Model, Joshua Daniel Bolton

Theses and Dissertations

In an increasingly mobile and diverse world, it is difficult to quantify the risk, or danger, associated with traveling. Airports have suffered greatly for being unable to define potential risks and protect against them. Intelligent adversary risk is a complicated high-level issue for many airports. Airports are targeted because of the large amount of people in a confined space and the social, economic, and psychological impact of terrorist attacks on the American people. In the months following September 11th, 2001, the airline industry in the United States lost $1.1 billion in revenue. The American people stayed grounded, for fear ...


Analyzing The Fundamental Aspects And Developing A Forecasting Model To Enhance The Student Admission And Enrollment System Of Msom Program, Sultanul Nahian Hasnat 2017 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Analyzing The Fundamental Aspects And Developing A Forecasting Model To Enhance The Student Admission And Enrollment System Of Msom Program, Sultanul Nahian Hasnat

Theses and Dissertations

A forecasting model, associated with predictive analysis, is an elementary requirement for academic leaders to plan course requirements. The M.S. in Operations Management (MSOM) program at the University of Arkansas desires to understand future student enrollment more accurately. The available literature shows that there is an absence of forecasting models based on quantitative, qualitative and predictive analysis. This study develops a combined forecasting model focusing on three admission stages. The research uses simple regression, Delphi analysis, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and classification tree system to develop the models. It predicts that 272, 173, and 136 new students will apply ...


Systematic Review For Water Network Failure Models And Cases, Yufei Gao 2017 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Systematic Review For Water Network Failure Models And Cases, Yufei Gao

Theses and Dissertations

As estimated in the American Society of Civil Engineers 2017 report, in the United States, there are approximately 240,000 water main pipe breaks each year. To help estimate pipe breaks and maintenance frequency, a number of physically-based and statistically-based water main failure prediction models have been developed in the last 30 years. Precious review papers focused more on the evolution of failure models rather than modeling results. However, the modeling results of different models applied in case studies are worth reviewing as well.

In this review, we focus on research papers after Year 2008 and collect latest cases without ...


Investigating The Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) On Croatian Business, Yonghee Cho, Tugrul U. Daim, Marina Dabic 2017 Portland State University

Investigating The Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) On Croatian Business, Yonghee Cho, Tugrul U. Daim, Marina Dabic

Joseph Cho

Technological innovation plays a critical role in economic growth. The most advanced and new technologies are created by leading firms in developed countries. Global expansion, strategic outsourcing or off-shoring in leading companies has been growing to enrich their competitive advantage, while technology transfer of leading firms has been of more interest to emerging or developing countries for catching up and following the trajectory of economic growth proved in developed countries. Among various channels to acquire new technologies from leading firms, foreign direct investments (FDI) is one of the most effective channels through which technology can be transferred to subsidiaries in ...


Profile Interview With Vincent Duffy, Apoorva Sulakhe 2017 Purdue University

Profile Interview With Vincent Duffy, Apoorva Sulakhe

Purdue Journal of Service-Learning and International Engagement

Dr. Vincent Duffy is an associate professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Purdue University holding a joint appointment with Agricultural and Biological Engineering. Duffy focuses on human factors engineering and ergonomic design. His interest in teaching began early when he was a teaching assistant for IE 386 at Purdue University while pursuing his master’s degree. As an industrial engineering master’s non-thesis student, Duffy realized he had a natural inclination toward teaching. This motivation, along with the support and mentorship of Ferdinand Leimkuhler, the head of the department, turned him toward the fi eld of research. He ...


Consumer-Adoption Modeling Of Distributed Solar Using An Agent-Based Approach, Anuj Mittal, Wanyu Huang, Caroline C. Krejci 2017 Iowa State University

Consumer-Adoption Modeling Of Distributed Solar Using An Agent-Based Approach, Anuj Mittal, Wanyu Huang, Caroline C. Krejci

Anuj Mittal

The electricity market in the U.S. is changing rapidly from a utility-scale centralized generation-distribution model to a more distributed and customer-sited energy model. Increasingly, residential consumers are showing interest in solar-based electricity, which has resulted in increased adoption of distributed solar on the rooftops of owner-occupied residences. However, limited accessibility of rooftop PV has led to equity concerns among policymakers, and utility companies face a decline in revenues as more residents adopt rooftop PV. In response to these issues, utility companies must consider providing alternative renewable energy options to their customers and incorporate consumer adoption modeling in their expansion ...


Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart 2017 Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then ...


Utilizing Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy For Prediction Of Cognitive Workload In Noisy Work Environments, Ryan Gabbard, Mary E. Fendley, Irfaan A. Dar, Rik Warren, Nasser H. Kashou 2017 Wright State University - Main Campus

Utilizing Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy For Prediction Of Cognitive Workload In Noisy Work Environments, Ryan Gabbard, Mary E. Fendley, Irfaan A. Dar, Rik Warren, Nasser H. Kashou

Biomedical, Industrial & Human Factors Engineering Faculty Publications

Occupational noise frequently occurs in the work environment in military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations. This impacts cognitive performance by acting as a stressor, potentially interfering with the analysts’ decision-making process. We investigated the effects of different noise stimuli on analysts’ performance and workload in anomaly detection by simulating a noisy work environment. We utilized functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to quantify oxy-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxy-hemoglobin concentration changes in the prefrontal cortex (PFC), as well as behavioral measures, which include eye tracking, reaction time, and accuracy rate. We hypothesized that noisy environments would have a negative effect on the participant in ...


Creating A Team Tutor Using Gift, Stephen B. Gilbert, Anna Slavina, Michael C. Dorneich, Anne M. Sinatra, Desmond Bonner, Joan Johnston, Joseph Holub, Anastacia MacAllister, Eliot H. Winer 2017 Iowa State University

Creating A Team Tutor Using Gift, Stephen B. Gilbert, Anna Slavina, Michael C. Dorneich, Anne M. Sinatra, Desmond Bonner, Joan Johnston, Joseph Holub, Anastacia Macallister, Eliot H. Winer

Michael C. Dorneich

With the movement in education towards collaborative learning, it is becoming more important that learners be able to work together in groups and teams. Intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) have been used successfully to teach individuals, but so far only a few ITSs have been used for the purpose of training teams. This is due to the difficulty of creating such systems. An ITS for teams must be able to assess complex interactions between team members (team skills) as well as the way they interact with the system itself (task skills). Assessing team skills can be difficult because they contain social ...


Creating A Team Tutor Using Gift, Stephen B. Gilbert, Anna Slavina, Michael C. Dorneich, Anne M. Sinatra, Desmond Bonner, Joan Johnston, Joseph Holub, Anastacia MacAllister, Eliot H. Winer 2017 Iowa State University

Creating A Team Tutor Using Gift, Stephen B. Gilbert, Anna Slavina, Michael C. Dorneich, Anne M. Sinatra, Desmond Bonner, Joan Johnston, Joseph Holub, Anastacia Macallister, Eliot H. Winer

Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering Publications

With the movement in education towards collaborative learning, it is becoming more important that learners be able to work together in groups and teams. Intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) have been used successfully to teach individuals, but so far only a few ITSs have been used for the purpose of training teams. This is due to the difficulty of creating such systems. An ITS for teams must be able to assess complex interactions between team members (team skills) as well as the way they interact with the system itself (task skills). Assessing team skills can be difficult because they contain social ...


Multiple Two-State Classifier Output Fusion System And Method: Patent Application, Stephen Whitlow, Michael C. Dorneich 2017 Iowa State University

Multiple Two-State Classifier Output Fusion System And Method: Patent Application, Stephen Whitlow, Michael C. Dorneich

Michael C. Dorneich

A system and method for providing more than two levels of classification distinction of a user state are provided. The first and second general states of a user are sensed. The first general state is classified as either a first state or a second state, and the second general state is classified as either a third state or a fourth state. The user state of the user is then classified as one of at least three different classification states.


Utilizing Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy For Prediction Of Cognitive Workload In Noisy Work Environments, Ryan Gabbard, Mary E. Fendley, Irfaan A. Dar, Rik Warren, Nasser H. Kashou 2017 Wright State University - Main Campus

Utilizing Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy For Prediction Of Cognitive Workload In Noisy Work Environments, Ryan Gabbard, Mary E. Fendley, Irfaan A. Dar, Rik Warren, Nasser H. Kashou

Nasser H. Kashou

Occupational noise frequently occurs in the work environment in military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations. This impacts cognitive performance by acting as a stressor, potentially interfering with the analysts’ decision-making process. We investigated the effects of different noise stimuli on analysts’ performance and workload in anomaly detection by simulating a noisy work environment. We utilized functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to quantify oxy-hemoglobin (HbO) and deoxy-hemoglobin concentration changes in the prefrontal cortex (PFC), as well as behavioral measures, which include eye tracking, reaction time, and accuracy rate. We hypothesized that noisy environments would have a negative effect on the participant in ...


Interaction Of Automation Visibility And Information Quality In Flight Deck Information Automation View Document, Michael C. Dorneich, Rachel Dudley, Emmanuel Letsu-Dake, William Rogers, Stephen D. Whitlow, Michael Dillard, Erik Nelson 2017 Iowa State University

Interaction Of Automation Visibility And Information Quality In Flight Deck Information Automation View Document, Michael C. Dorneich, Rachel Dudley, Emmanuel Letsu-Dake, William Rogers, Stephen D. Whitlow, Michael Dillard, Erik Nelson

Michael C. Dorneich

An empirical study evaluated key human factors issues related to automation visibility and information quality, based on a refined definition of information automation. Next-generation air transportation system operational concepts will dramatically affect the types and amount of information available on flight decks. Information automation systems collect, process, and present information to support pilot tasks and awareness. The definition of flight deck information automation was refined to differentiate it from other types of automation. Pilots interacted with an example information automation system to investigate the premise that automation visibility will have an impact on the ability of pilots to detect problems ...


Virtual Operator Models For Off-Highway Machine Virtual Prototyping, Yu Du, Michael C. Dorneich, Brian L. Steward 2017 Iowa State University

Virtual Operator Models For Off-Highway Machine Virtual Prototyping, Yu Du, Michael C. Dorneich, Brian L. Steward

Michael C. Dorneich

Increasing demands on the world‘s resources require the design of off-highway machines that provide greater functionality and productivity along with greater efficiency. Model-based or virtual design provides a means for achieving these design improvements with reduced time and costs. However, virtual design is often limited by the fidelity with which human operators are modeled. A greater understanding of how highly skilled operators obtain high machine performance and productivity can inform machine development and advance agricultural and construction machine automation technology. This research investigated how machine operator expertise, strategies, and decision-making can be integrated into operator models that simulate authentic ...


Adaptive Learning Pedagogy In Udl And Multi-Modal Training, Ziho Kang, Mattlyn R. Dragoo, Randa L. Shehab, Han Yuan, Lei Ding, Stephen G. West 2017 University of Oklahoma Norman Campus

Adaptive Learning Pedagogy In Udl And Multi-Modal Training, Ziho Kang, Mattlyn R. Dragoo, Randa L. Shehab, Han Yuan, Lei Ding, Stephen G. West

National Training Aircraft Symposium (NTAS)

Currently, most learning methods are based on classroom teaching through unidirectional communication using boards or slides. However, the Universal Design for Learning (UDL) asserts that the students can increase their performance if the instructors can provide the students with diversified information representation, expression, and engagement means. Although UDL minimizes the mismatch between the teaching and learning styles, we lack the detailed methods to implement the UDL and its associated multi-modal training methods in the context of air traffic control candidates and/or technical operators. We propose an approach that adapts the Index of Learning Styles (ILS) based on four categories ...


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