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Wetland Reserve Program Enhances Site Occupancy And Species Richness In Assemblages Of Anuran Amphibians In The Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Usa, Susan C. Walls, J. Hardin Waddle, Stephen P. Faulkner 2014 USGS National Wetlands Research Center

Wetland Reserve Program Enhances Site Occupancy And Species Richness In Assemblages Of Anuran Amphibians In The Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Usa, Susan C. Walls, J. Hardin Waddle, Stephen P. Faulkner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We measured amphibian habitat use to quantify the effectiveness of conservation practices implemented under the Wetland Reserve Program (WRP), an initiative of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service. From February to June 2007, we quantified calling male anurans in cultivated cropland, former cultivated cropland restored through the WRP, and mature bottomland hardwood forest. Sites were located in two watersheds within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Arkansas and Louisiana, USA. We estimated detection probability and site occupancy within each land use category using a Bayesian hierarchical model of community species occurrence, and derived an estimate of species richness …


Mapping Irrigated Areas In Afghanistan Over The Past Decade Using Modis Ndvi, Md. Shahriar Pervez, Michael Budde, James Rowland 2014 ASRC Federal InuTeq, contractor to United States Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Mapping Irrigated Areas In Afghanistan Over The Past Decade Using Modis Ndvi, Md. Shahriar Pervez, Michael Budde, James Rowland

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Agricultural production capacity contributes to food security in Afghanistan and is largely dependent on irrigated farming, mostly utilizing surface water fed by snowmelt. Because of the high contribution of irrigated crops (> 80%) to total agricultural production, knowing the spatial distribution and year-to-year variability in irrigated areas is imperative to monitoring food security for the country. We used 16-day composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to create 23-point time series for each year from 2000 through 2013. Seasonal peak values and time series were used in a threshold-dependent decision tree …


Comparing Cropland Net Primary Production Estimates Frominventory, A Satellite-Based Model, And A Process-Based Model In Themidwest Of The United States, Zengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Normann B. Bliss, Claudia J. Young, Tristram O. West, Stephen M. Ogle 2014 Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC/UMD)

Comparing Cropland Net Primary Production Estimates Frominventory, A Satellite-Based Model, And A Process-Based Model In Themidwest Of The United States, Zengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Normann B. Bliss, Claudia J. Young, Tristram O. West, Stephen M. Ogle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Accurately quantifying the spatial and temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) for crop-lands is essential to understand regional cropland carbon dynamics. We compared three NPP estimates for croplands in the Midwestern United States: inventory-based estimates using crop yield data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS); estimates from the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP product; and estimates from the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) process-based model. The three methods estimated mean NPP in the range of 469–687 g C m−2yr−1and total NPP in the range of318–490 Tg C yr−1for croplands in …


Humic Substances Interfere With Detection Of Pathogenic Prion Protein, Christen B. Smith, Clarissa J. Booth, Tyler J. Wadzinski, Giuseppe Legname, Rick Chappell, Christopher J. Johnson, Joel A. Pedersen 2014 Environmental Chemistry and Technology Program, University of Wisconsin

Humic Substances Interfere With Detection Of Pathogenic Prion Protein, Christen B. Smith, Clarissa J. Booth, Tyler J. Wadzinski, Giuseppe Legname, Rick Chappell, Christopher J. Johnson, Joel A. Pedersen

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Studies examining the persistence of prions (the etiological agent of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies) in soil require accurate quantification of pathogenic prion protein (PrPTSE) extracted from or in the presence of soil particles. Here, we demonstrate that natural organic matter (NOM) in soil impacts PrPTSE detection by immunoblotting. Methods commonly used to extract PrPTSE from soils release substantial amounts of NOM, and NOM inhibited PrPTSE immunoblot signal. The degree of immunoblot interference increased with increasing NOM concentration and decreasing NOM polarity. Humic substances affected immunoblot detection of prion protein from both deer and hamsters. We also establish that after interaction with …


Structural Equation Models Of Vmt Growth In Us Urbanised Areas, Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi, Frank Gallivan, Arthur C. Nelson, James B. Grace 2014 University of Utah

Structural Equation Models Of Vmt Growth In Us Urbanised Areas, Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi, Frank Gallivan, Arthur C. Nelson, James B. Grace

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is a primary performance indicator for land use and transportation, bringing with it both positive and negative externalities. This study updates and refines previous work on VMT in urbanised areas, using recent data, additional metrics and structural equation modelling (SEM). In a cross-sectional model for 2010, population, income and freeway capacity are positively related to VMT, while gasoline prices, development density and transit service levels are negatively related. Findings of the cross-sectional model are generally confirmed in a more tightly controlled longitudinal study of changes in VMT between 2000 and 2010, the first model of its …


Merging Remote Sensing Data And National Agricultural Statistics To Model Change In Irrigated Agriculture, Jesslyn F. Brown, Md Shahriar Pervez 2014 Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

Merging Remote Sensing Data And National Agricultural Statistics To Model Change In Irrigated Agriculture, Jesslyn F. Brown, Md Shahriar Pervez

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Over 22 million hectares (ha) of U.S. croplands are irrigated. Irrigation is an intensified agricultural land use that increases crop yields and the practice affects water and energy cycles at, above, and below the land surface. Until recently, there has been a scarcity of geospatially detailed information about irrigation that is comprehensive, consistent, and timely to support studies tying agricultural land use change to aquifer water use and other factors. This study shows evidence for a recent overall net expansion of 522 thousand ha across the U.S. (2.33%) and 519 thousand ha (8.7%) in irrigated cropped area across the High …


Comparing Crop Land Net Primary Production Estimates From Inventory, A Satellite-Based Model, And A Process-Based Model In The Midwest Of The United States Zhengpeng, Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Normann B. Bliss, Claudia J. Young, Tristram O. West, Stephen M. Ogle 2014 University Research Court, College Park

Comparing Crop Land Net Primary Production Estimates From Inventory, A Satellite-Based Model, And A Process-Based Model In The Midwest Of The United States Zhengpeng, Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Normann B. Bliss, Claudia J. Young, Tristram O. West, Stephen M. Ogle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Accurately quantifying the spatial and temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) for crop-lands is essential to understand regional cropland carbon dynamics. We compared three NPP estimates for croplands in the Midwestern United States: inventory-based estimates using crop yield data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS); estimates from the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer (MODIS) NPP product; and esti-mates from the General Ensemble bio geochemical Modeling System (GEMS) process-based model. The three methods estimated mean NPP in the range of 469–687 g C m−2yr−1and total NPP in the range …


Summary Of The Snowmastodon Project Special Volume: A High-Elevation, Multi-Proxy Biotic And Environmental Record Of Mis 6–4 From The Ziegler Reservoir Fossil Site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, Usa, Ian M. Miller, Jeffrey S. Pigati, R. Scott Anderson, Kirk R. Johnson, Shannon A. Mahan, Thomas A. Ager, Richard G. Baker, Maarten Blaauw, Jordon Bright, Peter M. Brown, Bruce Bryant, Zachary T. Calamari, Paul E. Carrara, Michael D. Cherney, John R. Demboski, Scott A. Elias, Daniel C. Fisher, Harrison J. Gray, Danielle R. Haskett, Jeffrey S. Honke, Stephen T. Jackson, Gonzalo Jiménez- Moreno, Douglas Kline, Eric M. Leonard, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Carol Lucking, H. Gregory McDonald, Dane M. Miller, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen E. Nash, Cody Newton, James B. Paces, Lesley Petrie, Mitchell A. Plummer, David F. Porinchu, Adam N. Rountrey, Eric Scott, Joseph J.W. Sertich, Saxon E. Sharpe, Gary L. Skipp, Laura E. Strickland, Richard K. Stucky, Robert S. Thompson, Jim Wilson 2014 Denver Museum of Nature and Science

Summary Of The Snowmastodon Project Special Volume: A High-Elevation, Multi-Proxy Biotic And Environmental Record Of Mis 6–4 From The Ziegler Reservoir Fossil Site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, Usa, Ian M. Miller, Jeffrey S. Pigati, R. Scott Anderson, Kirk R. Johnson, Shannon A. Mahan, Thomas A. Ager, Richard G. Baker, Maarten Blaauw, Jordon Bright, Peter M. Brown, Bruce Bryant, Zachary T. Calamari, Paul E. Carrara, Michael D. Cherney, John R. Demboski, Scott A. Elias, Daniel C. Fisher, Harrison J. Gray, Danielle R. Haskett, Jeffrey S. Honke, Stephen T. Jackson, Gonzalo Jiménez- Moreno, Douglas Kline, Eric M. Leonard, Nathaniel A. Lifton, Carol Lucking, H. Gregory Mcdonald, Dane M. Miller, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen E. Nash, Cody Newton, James B. Paces, Lesley Petrie, Mitchell A. Plummer, David F. Porinchu, Adam N. Rountrey, Eric Scott, Joseph J.W. Sertich, Saxon E. Sharpe, Gary L. Skipp, Laura E. Strickland, Richard K. Stucky, Robert S. Thompson, Jim Wilson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones …


Radiocarbon Dating Loess Deposits In The Mississippi Valley Using Terrestrial Gastropod Shells (Polygyridae, Helicinidae, And Discidae), Jeffrey S. Pigati, John McGeehin, Daniel R. Muhs, David A. Grimley, Jeffrey C. Nekola 2014 U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center

Radiocarbon Dating Loess Deposits In The Mississippi Valley Using Terrestrial Gastropod Shells (Polygyridae, Helicinidae, And Discidae), Jeffrey S. Pigati, John Mcgeehin, Daniel R. Muhs, David A. Grimley, Jeffrey C. Nekola

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Small terrestrial gastropod shells (mainly Succineidae) have been used successfully to date late Quaternary loess deposits in Alaska and the Great Plains. However, Succineidae shells are less common in loess deposits in the Mississippi Valley compared to those of the Polygyridae, Helicinidae, and Discidae families. In this study, we conducted several tests to determine whether shells of these gastropods could provide reliable ages for loess deposits in the Mississippi Valley. Our results show that most of the taxa that we investigated incorporate small amounts (1–5%) of old carbon from limestone in their shells, meaning that they should yield ages that …


Geologic Setting And Stratigraphy Of The Ziegler Reservoir Fossil Site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Ian M. Miller, Kirk R. Johnson, Jeffrey S. Honke, Paul E. Carrara, Daniel R. Muhs, Gary Skipp, Bruce Bryant 2014 U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center

Geologic Setting And Stratigraphy Of The Ziegler Reservoir Fossil Site, Snowmass Village, Colorado, Jeffrey S. Pigati, Ian M. Miller, Kirk R. Johnson, Jeffrey S. Honke, Paul E. Carrara, Daniel R. Muhs, Gary Skipp, Bruce Bryant

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The geologic setting of the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site is somewhat unusual—the sediments containing the Pleistocene fossils were deposited in a lake on top of a ridge. The lake basin was formed near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) when a glacier flowing down Snowmass Creek Valley became thick enough to overtop a low point in the eastern valley wall and entered the head of Brush Creek Valley. When the glacier retreated at about 155–130 ka, near the end of Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 6, the Brush Creek Valley lobe left behind a moraine that impounded a small alpine lake. The lake …


Toxicity Of Pb‐Contaminated Soil To Japanese Quail (Coturnix Japonica) And The Use Of The Blood–Dietary Pb Slope In Risk Assessment, W. Nelson Beyer, Yu Chen, Paula Henry, Thomas May, David Mosby, Barnett A. Rattner, Valerie I. Shearn-Bochsler, Daniel Sprague, John Weber 2014 U.S. Geological Survey

Toxicity Of Pb‐Contaminated Soil To Japanese Quail (Coturnix Japonica) And The Use Of The Blood–Dietary Pb Slope In Risk Assessment, W. Nelson Beyer, Yu Chen, Paula Henry, Thomas May, David Mosby, Barnett A. Rattner, Valerie I. Shearn-Bochsler, Daniel Sprague, John Weber

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

This study relates tissue concentrations and toxic effects of Pb in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) to the dietary exposure of soil‐borne Pb associated with mining and smelting. From 0% to 12% contaminated soil, by weight, was added to 5 experimental diets (0.12 to 382mg Pb/kg, dry wt) and fed to the quail for 6 weeks. Benchmark doses associated with a 50% reduction in delta‐aminolevulinic acid dehydratase activity were 0.62mg Pb/kg in the blood, dry wt, and 27mg Pb/kg in the diet. Benchmark doses associated with a 20% increase in the concentration of erythrocyte protoporphyrin were 2.7mg Pb/kg in …


Testing Metapopulation Concepts: Effects Of Patch Characteristics And Neighborhood Occupancy On The Dynamics Of An Endangered Lagomorph, Mitchell J. Eaton, Phillip T. Hughes, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols 2014 Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey & Southeast Climate Science Center, US Geological Survey

Testing Metapopulation Concepts: Effects Of Patch Characteristics And Neighborhood Occupancy On The Dynamics Of An Endangered Lagomorph, Mitchell J. Eaton, Phillip T. Hughes, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model …


Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification, Brett T. McClinktock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link 2014 NOAA National Marine Mammal Laboratory

Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification, Brett T. Mcclinktock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extend standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the …


Testing Metapopulation Concepts: Effects Of Patch Characteristics And Neighborhood Occupancy On The Dynamics Of An Endangered Lagomorph, Mitchell J. Eaton, Phillip T. Hughes, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols 2014 Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey & Southeast Climate Science Center, US Geological Survey

Testing Metapopulation Concepts: Effects Of Patch Characteristics And Neighborhood Occupancy On The Dynamics Of An Endangered Lagomorph, Mitchell J. Eaton, Phillip T. Hughes, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model …


Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification1, Brett T. McClintock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link 2014 USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification1, Brett T. Mcclintock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extended standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the …


Loess Records, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen R. Cattle, Onn Crouvi, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Jimin Sun, Marcelo A. Zárate 2014 U.S. Geological Survey

Loess Records, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen R. Cattle, Onn Crouvi, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Jimin Sun, Marcelo A. Zárate

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is aeolian sediment, dominated by silt-sized particles, that is identifiable in the field as a distinct sedimentary body. It covers a significant portion of the land surface of the Earth and as such constitutes one of the most important archives of long-term dust deposition. Large tracts of loess cover Europe, Asia, South America, and North America, and smaller loess bodies are found covering parts of Africa, the Middle East, New Zealand, and Australia. Loess thickness, particle size, and carbonate content decrease downwind from sources, trends that are powerful tools for reconstructing paleowinds. Many loess sections consist of relatively thick …


Evidence Of Repeated Wildfires Prior To Human Occupation On San Nicolas Island, California, Jeffrey S. Pigati, John P. McGeehin, Gary L. Skipp, Daniel R. Muhs 2014 U.S. Geological Survey

Evidence Of Repeated Wildfires Prior To Human Occupation On San Nicolas Island, California, Jeffrey S. Pigati, John P. Mcgeehin, Gary L. Skipp, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding how early humans on the California Channel Islands might have changed local fire regimes requires a baseline knowledge of the frequency of natural wildfires on the islands prior to human occupation. A sedimentary sequence that was recently discovered in a small canyon on San Nicolas Island contains evidence of at least 24 burn events that date to between ~37 and 25 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), well before humans entered North America. The evidence includes abundant macroscopic charcoal, blackened sediments, and discrete packages of oxidized, reddish-brown sediments that are similar in appearance to sedimentary features …


Cosee Ocean Inquiry Group Report: Opportunities For Creating Lifelong Ocean Science Literacy, Paul Boyle, Vince Breslin, Lisa Craig Brisson, John Fraser, Alan J. Friedman, Katie Gardner, Sarah Schoedinger, Jerry Schubel, Steve Uzzo, Steven Yalowitz 2014 Association of Zoos and Aquariums

Cosee Ocean Inquiry Group Report: Opportunities For Creating Lifelong Ocean Science Literacy, Paul Boyle, Vince Breslin, Lisa Craig Brisson, John Fraser, Alan J. Friedman, Katie Gardner, Sarah Schoedinger, Jerry Schubel, Steve Uzzo, Steven Yalowitz

School for the Environment General Publications

This Inquiry Group Report for the Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence Ocean Communities in Education And Social Networks (COSEE OCEAN) provides a fresh look at how broader ocean science literacy can be developed, especially through less-recognized channels such as opportunistic learning, the private and “third” sectors, and the enormously varied activities under the heading of informal science education. The 10 authors of this report (see Contributors section) have been working together for two years to find and review a range of issues and resources for current and potential ocean science literacy providers, both professional and volunteer.

Several chapters provide …


Two-Source Energy Balance Model To Calculate E, T, And Et: Comparison Of Priestley-Taylor And Penman-Monteith Formulations And Two Time Scaling Methods, Paul D. Colaizzi, Nurit Agam, Judy A. Tolk, Steven R. Evett, Terry A. Howell, Prasanna H. Gowda, Susan A. O'Shaughnessy, William P. Kustas, Martha C. Anderson 2014 United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service

Two-Source Energy Balance Model To Calculate E, T, And Et: Comparison Of Priestley-Taylor And Penman-Monteith Formulations And Two Time Scaling Methods, Paul D. Colaizzi, Nurit Agam, Judy A. Tolk, Steven R. Evett, Terry A. Howell, Prasanna H. Gowda, Susan A. O'Shaughnessy, William P. Kustas, Martha C. Anderson

United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

The two-source energy balance (TSEB) model calculates the energy balance of the soil-canopy-atmosphere continuum, where transpiration is initially determined by the Priestley-Taylor equation. The TSEB was revised recently using the Penman-Monteith equation to replace the Priestley-Taylor formulation, thus better accounting for the impact of large and varying vapor pressure deficits (VPD) typical of advective, semiarid climates. This study is a comparison of the Priestley- Taylor and Penman-Monteith versions of the TSEB (termed TSEB-PT and TSEB-PM, respectively). Evaporation (E), transpiration (T), and evapotranspiration (ET) calculated by the TSEB-PT and TSEB-PM versions were compared to measurements obtained with microlysimeters, sap flow gauges, …


Coupling Of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones With The Monsoon Onset In Myanmar, B. O. Fosu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang 2014 Utah State University

Coupling Of Pre-Monsoon Tropical Cyclones With The Monsoon Onset In Myanmar, B. O. Fosu, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The pre-monsoon tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the monsoon evolution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are both influenced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), but the two do not always occur in unison. This study examines the conditions that allow the MJO to modulate the monsoon onset in Myanmar and TC activity concurrently. Using the APHRODITE gridded precipitation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, composite evolutions of monsoon rainfall and TC genesis are constructed for the period of 1979–2010. It is found that the MJO exhibits a strong interannual variability in terms of phase and intensity, which in some years modulate …


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