Meteorology Commons^™

The Influence Of Tropical Cyclones On Droughts And Warm Season Precipitation In Tennessee And Kentucky, Lamar S. Coats

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The Southeast United States during summer and fall is often affected by droughts and tropical cyclones. Both phenomena rank among the most expensive of natural hazards, although droughts are not as feared by the public as hurricanes. When a tropical cyclone causes a pendulum swing from drought to wet conditions, it is known as a “drought-busting tropical cyclone.” The majority of the research related to drought busting tropical cyclones investigates only the storms during their tropical cyclone phase, which covers the southeastern states that have boundaries adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean. An unanswered question from this literature is whether or …

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Polarimetric Radar Signatures Of Supercell Thunderstorms In Tropical Cyclones, Emily Paltz, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE: Research Products

Background It is necessary for operational meteorologists to forecast quickly and accurately when storms have the potential of producing severe weather such as tornadoes or hail. Presently, radar represents the most effective way to monitor storms in real time. The National Weather Service recently upgraded the national radar network to polarimetric capability. Much time and resources have been devoted to understanding the development of Great Plains supercells such that polarimetric radar schematics have been developed for them. Little, however, has been done for tropical cyclone supercells. In this study we wish to determine typical polarimetric radar structure for supercells in …

Seagrass Community Change At Three High Risk Ports In The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area From 2005 To 2014, Celeste Venolia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Seagrass meadows are extremely valuable and dynamic ecosystems currently facing pressure from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrass ecosystems are declining globally because of direct and indirect threats that shift environmental conditions controlling seagrass distribution. Seagrass species responses to disturbances vary based on a number of factors including life history strategy. The goal of this study was to map and analyze patterns of dominant seagrass species change at Cairns and Gladstone from 2005-2014 and Townsville from 2007-2014. This compilation data set was symbolized according to the life history strategy of the species. The major disturbances during this time period were physical damage from …

Forecast Verification Of The Current Icing Potential (Cip) To Predict Lightning Hazards At U.S. Spaceports, Robert Edward Haley

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Government spaceports employ extensive lightning detection networks that may not be available at commercial spaceports. Therefore, the Federal Aviation Administration identified the need for diagnosing the threat of triggered lightning without in-situ measurements. Anecdotal observations of the Aviation Weather Center’s Current Icing Potential (CIP) diagnostic model indicated a potentially high correlation between lightning activity and icing potential. A forecast verification study and supporting representative case studies were conducted to quantify the CIP’s ability to diagnose existing lightning hazards. The study showed that high positive statistical correlations between the CIP and lightning activity do exist, but so do negative correlations. During …

Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King

Theses and Dissertations

Summer thunderstorms pose the greatest forecast challenge for the United States Air Force's 96th Weather Flight (96WF) which provides weather support for Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). Located on Florida's panhandle, Eglin AFB encompasses the Department of Defense's largest range complex which covers 134,000 sq mi (347,000 sq km) of water and 724 sq mi (1875 sq km) of land. Due to the base's coastal location and unique coastline geometry, sea breeze is a dominant forecast consideration for thunderstorms. The 96 WF currently utilizes an empirical method, called WINNDEX, developed by former staff meteorologist Roger Winn to aid in thunderstorm …

The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns

Theses and Dissertations

The Ensemble Prediction Suites (EPS) used at the 557th Weather Wing (557 WW) provide probability based forecasts for thousands of worldwide locations. Point Ensemble Probability (PEP) bulletins are tailored specifically to the United States military and its criteria for operationally significant weather. This study assesses the performance of PEPs from each EPS at 17 Continental United States (CONUS) locations. Results from April to October of 2015 show that each EPS is underforecasting ceilings and visibility for most forecast hours at several locations. The underforecasting of ceilings is most severe at Vandenberg AFB, an area prone to frequent marine layer fog …

How Can Agroforestry Help Landowners Adapt To Increased Rain Intensity?

Working Trees (USDA-NAC)

Agroforestry practices can help landowners adapt to increased rain intensity.

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Impacts Of Bias Correction Of Wind Forecasts On Hydrodynamic And Wave Model Predictions, Robert J. Weaver, Peyman Taeb, Bryan P. Holman, Steven M. Lazarus, Michael E. Splitt, Atousa Saberi, Jeff Colvin

Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications

High-resolution hydrodynamic models are forced by surface wind output from operational met. models. Current suite of operational met. models do not have the spatial resolution needed to resolve the fine scale processes associated with complex estuarine wind-driven circulation nor a detailed land-water mask. Goal: improve forecast wind forcing in most efficient manner as possible

New Metric For Defining The Time Of Extratropical Transition Of Tropical Cyclones, Ajay Raghavendra, Shawn M. Milrad

Publications

Almost half of all tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic basin undergo extratropical transition (ET). During an ET event, wind fields often expand dramatically, resulting in more widely-felt impacts. Moreover, the heaviest precipitation typically shifts to the left-of-center (LOC), which can result in inland flash flooding hundreds of kilometers from the cyclone center. While several objective metrics to track and predict ET have been developed, they rely at least partially on internal tropical cyclone structure, for which numerical models show less skill. Further, these metrics fail to account for static stability, which plays a vital role in determining precipitation amounts. …

Analysis Of The Precipitation Detection Algorithm For The Geonor T-200b Precipitation Gauge To Improve Accuracy, Megan Lerman, Robert K. Goodrich

STAR Program Research Presentations

In an effort to improve the precipitation detection algorithm for the Geonor All Weather Precipitation Gauge, an automated truth algorithm has been created to detect errors in the original algorithm. The original algorithm detects precipitation in real time and uses the rate of precipitation to indicate an event. The automated truth does not detect in real time, and focuses on precipitation accumulation to indicate an event. Since the automated truth is delayed, it is able to consider the data collected before and after the point it is analyzing. The automated truth is already more accurate than the original algorithm but …

Environmental Controls On Pyrocumulus And Pyrocumulonimbus Initiation And Development, Neil Lareau, Craig Clements

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

In this paper we present the first direct observational evidence that the condensation level in pyrocumulus and pyrocumulonimbus clouds can be significantly higher than the ambient lifted condensation level. In addition, we show that the environmental thermodynamic profile, day-to-day variations in humidity, and ambient wind shear all exert significant influence over the onset and development of pyroconvective clouds. These findings are established using a scanning Doppler lidar and mobile radiosonde system during two large wildfires in northern California, the Bald Fire and the Rocky Fire. The lidar is used to distinguish liquid water from smoke backscatter during the plume rise, …

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Impact Of Climate Variations On Soybean Yield In Eastern Arkansas: 1960-2014, J. W. Magugu, S. Feng, Q. Huang, K. Luthra

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Climate is the major factor affecting crop production; therefore, various agro-meteorological indicators have been frequently used to evaluate the impact of climate on crop production. In this study, we examined the temporal variations of agrometeorological indicators (growing degree days, total precipitation, dry spells and drought indices) during 1960-2014 and their impact on soybean yields in East Arkansas. Results show an increasing trend in growing degree days (GDDs) and dry spells, though the total precipitation during the soybean growing season remained nearly unchanged during the study period. Generally, GDDs and dry spells show a strong correlation with yields. We also evaluated …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

The Tornado That Struck Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University On Christmas Day, 2006: Lessons Learned From A Near-Miss, John M. Lanicci

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

An F2 tornado that touched down in Daytona Beach on Christmas Day afternoon caused over $50 million of damage to the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University campus and nearby neighborhoods. The tornado was part of a severe-weather outbreak over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina that began during the overnight hours of 25 December 2006. Examination of surface and upper-level meteorological charts and vertical soundings on the morning of 25 December showed stability and wind-shear conditions favorable for tornadic thunderstorms over this region. The evolution of the squall line that moved through east-central Florida, and the parent thunderstorm that produced the tornado was …

Regional Variations Of Optimal Sowing Dates Of Maize For The Southwestern U.S., Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Sowing date (SD) is sensitive to regional climate characteristics; thus, it is critical to systematically examine the effects of SD on crop yields for various temperature regimes. We performed a sensitivity study of SD for maize in the southwestern U.S. using the regionally extended version of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model. The model was run utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis at a 32 km resolution from 1991 to 2011, with an irrigation threshold at 95% of the soil water-holding capacity. Two types of SD optimizations maximizing yield potential (Yp), varying spatially or interannually, revealed that the optimal SD …

Sensitivity Of Maize Yield Potential To Regional Climate In The Southwestern U.S., Seung Hee Kim, Boksoon Myoung, David Stack, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The sensitivity of maize yields to the regional climate in the Southwestern U.S. (SWUS) has been investigated by using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model in conjunction with meteorological forcings [daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation, and radiation] from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Sensitivity experiments showed that potential crop production responded nonlinearly to variations in Tmax, Tmin, and downwelling solar radiation at the surface. Mean annual yield potential (Yp) was changed by -3.0 and 1.79 Mg ha-1 for the +1 and -1 standard deviations (σ) of Tmax variation for entire the SWUS. The …