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Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Investigating Physical Processes Associated With Chesapeake Bay And Changjiang Estuary, Arash Niroomandi

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Coastal and estuaries are landforms that not only have great impacts on large marine ecosystem, but also play a significant role in moderating or aggravating natural hazards and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. This dissertation explores some of the concerns associated with coasts and coastal systems. In the second chapter, a thirty seven year wave hindcast (1979-2015) in Chesapeake Bay using NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wind is presented. The long-term significant wave heights are generated by the third-generation nearshore wave model SWAN, which is validated using the wave height measurements at buoy stations …

Potential Impacts Of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise And Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge In Western Pasco County, Florida, Kittiya Harris

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Sea levels have risen approximately 20 cm since the beginning of the 20th century and more than 3 cm in the past 20 years, suggesting that global sea level rise is accelerating. As sea levels continue to rise and storms become more intense, coastal property and populations become more susceptible to damage. Florida is especially vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge (HSS) and the onset of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) due to its extensive coastline and high population density along the coast. The main purpose of this research is to assess the potential economic impacts of ASLR and HSS for two …

Spatial Analysis Of Tornado Warning System Understanding And Relationship With Tornado Occurrence, Chesnea A. Skeen

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Tornadoes present a significant threat to life and property. The National Weather Service watch and warning system warns the public of tornadoes. If these warnings are not heeded by the public, the potential fatalities and destruction of property cannot be minimized. Thus, to prevent further loss of life and property, it is necessary to understand how the public understands the watch and warning system, as well as how they react. This paper aims to understand the correlation between understanding of watches and warnings and the occurrence of tornadoes, as well as how understanding varies spatially. Survey data were collected from …

Storm Chasing Across The Plains: An Experience Portfolio, Isaac Bowers

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The opportunity to predict and document severe weather across the Plains is not available to many, but it is a vital experience for those who hope to truly excel in meteorology. The ability to travel alongside one of the professors that has guided you through the program, apply the knowledge gained from that professor and many others, and view nature’s breathtaking power in person is truly a capstone experience for any meteorology major. Luckily, the B.S. Meteorology Program at WKU offers a select group of students this opportunity annually. This portfolio report will consist of documentation I recorded during my …

The Rhetoric Of Scientific Authority: A Rhetorical Examination Of _An Inconvenient Truth_, Alexander W. Morales

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis project examines how scientific authority is produced through rhetorical practices instead of the “information deficit” model of science communication. By conducting a rhetorical analysis of the science documentary An Inconvenient Truth, this project demonstrates how the documentary format itself and the film’s leading agent, former United States Vice President Al Gore, attempt to persuade audiences through building degrees of scientific authority by employing multiple rhetorics or narrative themes of science to bolster the scientific facts supporting anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, I demonstrate how these narrative themes parallel three scholarly themes within the rhetoric of science literature: science …

The Spectral And Chemical Measurement Of Pollutants On Snow Near South Pole, Antarctica, Kimberly A. Casey, Susan D. Kaspari, S. M. Skiles, K. Kreutz, M. J. Handley

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Remote sensing of light-absorbing particles (LAPs), or dark colored impurities, such as black carbon (BC) and dust on snow, is a key remaining challenge in cryospheric surface characterization and application to snow, ice, and climate models. We present a quantitative data set of in situ snow reflectance, measured and modeled albedo, and BC and trace element concentrations from clean to heavily fossil fuel emission contaminated snow near South Pole, Antarctica. Over 380 snow reflectance spectra (350–2500 nm) and 28 surface snow samples were collected at seven distinct sites in the austral summer season of 2014–2015. Snow samples were analyzed for …

Economic Evaluation Of Coastal Land Loss In Louisiana, Stephen R. Barnes, Craig Bond, Nicholas Burger, Kate Anania, Aaron Strong, Sarah Weilant, Stephanie Virgets

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

Louisiana has lost approximately 1,880 square miles of land over the past eighty years. Projections suggest that in a future without action, the next fifty years could result in the loss of 1,750 additional square miles of land area. As land loss continues, a large portion of the natural and man-made capital stocks of coastal Louisiana will be at greater risk of damage, either from land loss or from the associated increase in storm damage. We estimate the replacement cost of capital stock directly at risk from land loss ranges from approximately $2.1 billion to $3.5 billion with economic activity …

Lichen Conservation In Eastern North America: Population Genomics, Climate Change, And Translocations, Jessica Allen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Conservation biology is a scientific discipline that draws on methods from diverse fields to address specific conservation concerns and inform conservation actions. This field is overwhelmingly focused on charismatic animals and vascular plants, often ignoring other diverse and ecologically important groups. This trend is slowly changing in some ways; for example, increasing number of fungal species are being added to the IUCN Red-List. However, a strong taxonomic bias still exists. Here I contribute four research chapters to further the conservation of lichens, one group of frequently overlooked organisms. I address specific conservation concerns in eastern North America using modern methods. …

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Depletion Of Ozone And Reservoir Species Of Chlorine And Nitrogen Oxide In The Lower Antarctic Polar Vortex Measured From Aircraft, T. Jurkat, C. Voigt, S. Kaufmann, J.-U. Grooß, H. Ziereis, A. Dörnbrack, P. Hoor, H. Bozem, A. Engel, H. Bönisch, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Novel airborne in situ measurements of inorganic chlorine, nitrogen oxide species, and ozone were performed inside the lower Antarctic polar vortex and at its edge in September 2012. We focus on one flight during the Transport and Composition of the LMS/Earth System Model Validation (TACTS/ESMVal) campaign with the German research aircraft HALO (High-Altitude LOng range research aircraft), reaching latitudes of 65°S and potential temperatures up to 405 K. Using the early winter correlations of reactive trace gases with N₂O from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), we find high depletion of chlorine reservoir gases up to ∼40% …

Proposed Legislation Seeks To Stimulate Investment In Coastal Resiliency, Jon Cawley

News Items

No abstract provided.

The Arctic: Science, Law, And Policy, Charles H. Norchi, Paul A. Mayewski

Ocean and Coastal Law Journal

In 1959, Sir Charles Snow (C.P. Snow) delivered a lecture at Cambridge University entitled The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution in which he identified a duality of cultures. There were the scientists and the humanists--two dimly acquanited cultures that rarely communicated, and when they did it was usually at cross-purposes. One culture was contentedly unknowing and skeptical of science, and the other was marginal to the great social questions of the time. For C.P. Snow, the polarization and lack of communication between the two groups could be fatal to the Western World. The 21st century has also revealed polarized …

Forecasted Range Shifts Of Arid-Land Fishes In Response To Climate Change, James E. Whitney, Joanna B. Whittier, Craig Patrick Paukert, Julian D. Olden, Angela L. Strecker

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according …

An Evaluation Of Gridded Temperature Products And Their Effectiveness In Modeling Small Scale Ambient Temperature, Barrie Chileen

Celebration of Learning

The use of gridded temperature products is becoming increasingly prevalent in ecological research due to their accessibility, low cost, and spatial and temporal coverage. While a few studies have compared gridded products against each other and against weather station data, little research exists that attempts to verify the accuracy of these gridded products on finer spatial scales in field settings. In this study, we use two networks of temperature sensors to evaluate the effectiveness of these widely used gridded products in modeling ambient temperatures and compare tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution of gridded products.

We deployed 65 temperature sensors …

Modeling And Projection Of The North American Monsoon Using A High-Resolution Regional Climate Model, Jonathan D.D. Meyer

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The North American Monsoon (NAM) is a dominant climate feature across the southwestern United States and Mexico during the summertime. Rainfall from the NAM elicits a significant response from the regional ecology as well as supports the socioeconomic well-being of both rural and urban populations. Due to the large variability in the yearly intensity and location of where the NAM rainfall occurs, the region is highly susceptible to prolonged and exceptional periods of drought; compounded by significant population growth projections through the 21st century. Reliable prediction for the NAM is highly beneficial on timescales ranging from shortterm weather forecasting to …

The Role Of Sulfur Dioxide In Stratospheric Aerosol Formation Evaluated By Using In Situ Measurements In The Tropical Lower Stratosphere, A. W. Rollins, T. D. Thornberry, L. A. Watts, P. Yu, K. H. Rosenlof, M. Mills, E. Baumann, F. R. Giorgetta, T. V. Bui, M. Höpfner, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Stratospheric aerosols (SAs) are a variable component of the Earth's albedo that may be intentionally enhanced in the future to offset greenhouse gases (geoengineering). The role of tropospheric-sourced sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in maintaining background SAs has been debated for decades without in situ measurements of SO₂ at the tropical tropopause to inform this issue. Here we clarify the role of SO₂ in maintaining SAs by using new in situ SO₂ measurements to evaluate climate models and satellite retrievals. We then use the observed tropical tropopause SO₂ mixing ratios to estimate the global flux of …

A Multi-Millennial Drought Reconstruction For West-Central New Mexico Using Rocky Mountain Juniper (Juniperus Scopulorum, Sarg.), Joshua S. Oliver

Master's Theses

A new multi-millennial tree-ring record from living and remnant Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum, Sarg.) wood from Candelaria in west-central New Mexico is used to determine the temporal and spatial variability of scPDSI over the past two millennia (B.C. 492 to A.D. 2014). Our record indicates extreme drought events found within other hydroclimatic proxy records in the Colorado Plateau region spanning the time period (16^th century and 2^nd century megadroughts). By ranking the extreme drought events by magnitude, duration, intensity, and overall score, the most extreme drought events of this record are compared to drought events …

Environmental Changes Across The Early Mississippian Carbon Isotope Excursion, Dev Krishna Maharjan

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The Early Mississippian K–O (Kinderhookian-Osagean) δ13C excursion or TICE (mid-Tournaisian carbon isotope excursion) is characterized by an anomalous carbonate carbon isotope value of ≥5‰ that has been documented from numerous stratigraphic sections across the globe. This δ13C excursion coincides with global cooling and sea-level fall and predicts a significant change in seawater chemistry. However, sulfate sulfur isotope data across the K-O δ13C excursion reported in previous studies seem not to be responsive to the carbon cycle. Likewise, a recent study has documented a unidirectional increase in nitrogen isotopes across this excursion, which is not anticipated considering the amount of organic …

Global Ranking Of U.S. Adults Concerned About Climate Change, Eric Marek

Undergraduate Research Conference

Even with a plethora of evidence and the vast majority of climate scientists supporting climate change, there remains a considerable amount of denial among the public. The purpose of this research is to examine where the United States stands in relation to other countries on the topic of climate change. The aspects explored include the history of climate change, the effects of climate change on the environment, science literacy and pseudoscience beliefs, opposition to climate change, the mitigation of climate change, as well as public opinion of climate change. This paper will include measures taken by governments and businesses to …