Climate Commons^™

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

P07. Characterizing The Purple Crow Lidar To Investigate Potential Sources Of Wet Bias, Jeffrey Vankerkhove, Robert J. Sica, Robin Wing, Steve Argall

Western Research Forum

The Purple Crow Lidar is a large aperture lidar, capable of retrieving water vapor profiles into the stratosphere. Water vapor in the upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) region is of particular importance in understanding Earth's radiative budget and atmospheric dynamics, making accurate UTLS measurements crucial. A comparison campaign with the NASA/GSFC ALVICE mobile lidar in the spring of 2012 showed PCL water vapor measurements were consistently larger than those of ALVICE in the lower stratosphere, prompting an investigation to characterize the system. The investigation looks into how changes to the data processing approach, as well as applying additional instrumental corrections, would …

P16. Ralmo Rotational Raman Temperature Retrieval: First Steps Towards The Application Of Optimal Estimation Method (Oem), Shayamila N. Mahagammulla Gamage, Robert Sica, Alexander Haefele

Western Research Forum

Background:

Temperature is an important atmospheric parameter that plays an extensive role in the fields of atmospheric dynamics, climatology, meteorology, and chemistry. Light detection and ranging (lidar), is a remote sensing technology that can be used for atmospheric temperature profiling. A lidar transmits short laser pulses into the atmosphere and the light scattered by the particles in the atmosphere is collected and measured using a telescope. The atmospheric temperatures can be retrieved by analysing the Pure Rotational Raman (PRR) scatter measurements from the nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the atmosphere.

Methods:

In this study use the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM) …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Dynamical Conditions Of Ice Supersaturation And Ice Nucleation In Convective Systems: A Comparative Analysis Between In Situ Aircraft Observations And Wrf Simulations, John D'Alessandro, Minghui Diao, Chenglai Wu, Xiaohong Liu, Ming Chen, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Jorgen Jensen, Aaron Bansemer, Mark Zondlo, Joshua Digangi

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double‐moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤ −40°C. All four schemes capture both clear‐sky and in‐cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear‐sky (in‐cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds ( …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Climate Change Impacts On Southern Ross Sea Phytoplankton Composition, Productivity, And Export, Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Walker O. Smith Jr., Eileen E. Hofmann, Michael S. Dinniman, John C. P. Hemmings

CCPO Publications

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity …

Mass Coral Mortality Under Local Amplification Of 2 °C Ocean Warming, Thomas M. Decarlo, Anne L. Cohen, George T. F. Wong, Kristen A. Davis, Pat Lohman, Keryea Soong

OES Faculty Publications

A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Nino. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef "Bleaching Alert" alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale …

A Walk On The Wild Side: Disturbance Dynamics And The Conservation And Management Of European Mountain Forest Ecosystems, Dominik Kulakowski, Rupert Seidl, Jan Holeksa, Timo Kuuluvainen, Thomas A. Nagel, Momchil Panayotov, Miroslav Svoboda, Simon Thorn, Giorgio Vacchiano, Cathy Whitlock, Thomas Wohlgemuth, Peter Bebi

Geography

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an …

Watershed Response To Climate Change And Fire-Burns In The Upper Umatilla River Basin, Usa, Kimberly Crystal Yazzie, Heejun Chang

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in …

Assessment Of An Atmospheric Transport Model For Annual Inverse Estimates Of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Justin Bagley, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Sally Newman, Jingsong Zhang, Chad Priest, Mixtli Campos-Pineda, Arlyn Andrews, Laura Bianco, Matthew Lloyd, Neil Lareau, Craig Clements, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess …

Contributions Of Wood Smoke And Vehicle Emissions To Ambient Concentrations Of Volatile Organic Compounds And Particulate Matter During The Yakima Wintertime Nitrate Study, Graham Vanderschelden, Benjamin De Foy, Courtney Herring, Susan D. Kaspari, Tim Vanreken, Bertram Jobson

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

A multiple linear regression (MLR) chemical mass balance model was applied to data collected during an air quality field experiment in Yakima, WA, during January 2013 to determine the relative contribution of residential wood combustion (RWC) and vehicle emissions to ambient pollutant levels. Acetonitrile was used as a chemical tracer for wood burning and nitrogen oxides (NOx) as a chemical tracer for mobile sources. RWC was found to be a substantial source of gas phase air toxics in wintertime. The MLR model found RWC primarily responsible for emissions of formaldehyde (73%), acetaldehyde (69%), and black carbon (55%) and mobile sources …

Ozone Depletion, A Big Threat To Climate Change: What Can Be Done?, Sumera Aziz Ali, Savera Aziz Ali, Nadir Suhail

Community Health Sciences

Ozone in the stratosphere is very important as it acts as a safeguard for the earth and protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiations coming from the sun. Depletion of stratospheric ozone, resulting from atmospheric pollution has led to increased ultraviolet radiation at the earth’s surface as well as spectral shifts to the more biologically damaging shorter wavelengths. A decrease in the concentration of stratospheric ozone enhances the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which is harmful to the growth of the plant and various other metabolic processes of the organisms and might cause changes in pigment concentrations, nucleic acids, and proteins. Multiple …

Estimating Methane Emissions From Biological And Fossil-Fuel Sources In The San Francisco Bay Area, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Donald Blake, Ben Miller, Stephen Montzka, Arlyn Andrews, Abhinav Guha, Philip Martien, Ray Bambha, Brian Lafranchi, Hope Michelsen, Craig Clements, Pierre Glaize, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH4 and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH4/yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, …

The Irreversible Momentum Of Clean Energy, Barack Obama

United States Department of Energy: Publications

The release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) due to human activity is increasing global average surface air temperatures, disrupting weather patterns, and acidifying the ocean. Left unchecked, the continued growth of GHG emissions could cause global average temperatures to increase by another 4°C or more by 2100 and by 1.5 to 2 times as much in many midcontinent and far northern locations. Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change is increasingly and disturbingly clear, there is still debate about the proper course for U.S. policy—a debate that is very much on display …

Implications Of Sea Ice On Southern Ocean Microseisms Detected By A Seismic Array In West Antarctica, Martin J. Pratt, Douglas A. Wiens, J. Paul Winberry, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Garrett G. Euler

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

The proximity of Southern Ocean storms coupled with seasonal variation in sea ice make Antarctica ideal for the study of microseism sources. We explore frequency-dependent beamforming results using a short-duration, 60 km aperture, broad-band seismic array located on the Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Locations of single-frequency microseism (13–16 s period) generation are in regions where the continental shelf is ice-free, consistent with previous studies, and show Rayleigh wave sources remaining at consistent backazimuths throughout the duration of the array. Beamforming analysis of daily noise correlations shows that long-period double-frequency microseisms (9–11 s) consist predominantly of Rayleigh waves excited by …

Application Of Recurrent Neural Networks For Drought Projections In California, J. A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 10, Spring 2017

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

Burundi : Water Scarcity, Isabel Salas

Global Public Health

Burundi is located near the African great lakes region of East Africa. This country is one of the poorest and hungriest countries throughout the world because of this they are facing multiple problems with communicable disease. These families are seeing a reduction in the amount of water available to them and based on this they are receiving water from external sources such as wells and lakes. Most of the water throughout Burundi is contaminated with Phytoplankton which increase cholera outbreaks in this area. It has also been shown that uranium impacts the water throughout the wells and lakes. Both of …

An Analysis Of China’S Regional Emissions Trading System: Challenges And Lessons, Ronghui (Kevin) Zhou

Bard Center for Environmental Policy

China, the largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world, has faced environmental pressures both internationally and domestically over the last ten years. In early 2011, the Chinese government approved a carbon emissions trading program in seven cities and provinces, and started planning a national emissions trading framework. This thesis reviews these pilot programs and examines the issues that underlie them. Drawing lessons from the U.S. Acid Rain Program, the European Union’s ETS, and California’s CAT, the three largest emissions trading frameworks in the world, I find that: (1) lack of trades in China’s pilot programs is a consequence of permit …