Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

Is Rural America Failing Or Succeeding? Maybe Both, Kenneth M. Johnson, Daniel T. Lichter

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter summarize their peer reviewed article in Demography that provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and urban growth.

Johnson and Lichter report that since 1970, 25 percent of counties containing 22 percent of the current U.S. population have been reclassified from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status because of population and economic growth. All of the growth in the share of the population that lives in metropolitan counties is due to nonmetropolitan counties transforming into metropolitan counties. This transfer of population and territory through reclassification calls into question the …

Health Conditions And An Older Population Increase Covid-19 Risks In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the likely influence that the age structure and the incidence of pre-existing health conditions have on the risks of those exposed to COVID-19 in rural and urban counties in the United States.

Johnson reports that the rural population is at higher risk from COVID-19 because it is older and has higher rates of pre-existing health conditions. Rural areas currently have lower COVID-19 case and death rates, but these rates are rising faster than in urban areas. Nearly 32 percent of the rural counties at high risk from COVID-19 still have relatively few cases …

The Inequities Of Job Loss And Recovery Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic, Rogelio Saenz, Corey Sparks

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this policy brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz and Corey Sparks discuss the wide variations in unemployment and the level of job loss during the COVID-19 pandemic across the nation’s demographic groups that have historically suffered disparities in the workforce, including persons of color, women, and immigrants. It is particularly unfortunate that the calamity of the pandemic comes on the heels of major improvements in job prospects that these groups made over the last decade, as the workforce emerged from the Great Recession.

The benefits associated with the CARES Act of March 2020 expired in July, leaving tens of millions of …

Why People Move To And Stay In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson, Kristine Bundschuh

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Migration is important to New Hampshire’s demographic future. Traditionally, the state has grown both because of migration into it and because of the surplus of births over deaths. However, recently all of New Hampshire’s population growth has been due to migration.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Kristine Bundschuh analyze data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll to examine the characteristics of two groups of current New Hampshire residents—recent migrants and established residents—to understand why people move to and choose to stay in the state. Their findings illustrate that migration decisions are influenced by …

U.S. Population Growth Slows, But Diversity Grows, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2019 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate in a century because there were fewer births, more deaths, and less immigration. Fertility rates diminished regardless of race or Hispanic origin and immigration declines were also widespread. As a result, the growth rate of both the minority and non-Hispanic White population diminished. Yet, the racial diversity of the population continued to grow, according to Census Bureau estimates released on June 25, 2020.

This increasing diversity reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing, and the non-Hispanic White population is …

U.S. Fertility Rates And Births Continue To Diminish, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses new National Center for Health Statistics data for 2019 that show the lowest fertility rates on record and just 3,746,000 births—the fewest since 1985. There were 570,000 fewer births in 2019 than in 2007, just before the Great Recession began to influence births. As fertility rates begin to be impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and its economic aftermath, a critical question is: how many of these births will be delayed, and how many will be foregone entirely? This has implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.

An Older Population Increases Estimated Covid-19 Death Rates In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson estimates the influence that the local age structure has on coronavirus death rates among those exposed to it in rural and urban counties in the United States. He reports that the older age structure of rural America increases its vulnerability to the coronavirus. Though rural exposure to the virus was limited early in the pandemic, it is now spreading rapidly there. Rural America’s older age structure increases expected mortality rates there, but other factors also influence its vulnerability to the virus. The fates of rural and urban America are inextricably intertwined, so responding to …

Deaths Exceeded Births In Nearly Half Of U.S. Counties Last Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that even before the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deaths were at a record high in the United States last year, but there were the fewest births since 1986. Between July 2018 and July 2019, the surplus of births over deaths was the least in more than 50 years. As a result, more people died than were born in 46 percent of U.S. counties last year. Because of this smaller surplus of births over deaths and diminished immigration, the U.S. population grew by just 0.48 percent last year—the lowest population growth rate …

Distribution Of New Hampshire’S Older Population Complicates Health Care Delivery During Coronavirus Epidemic, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the uneven spatial distribution of New Hampshire’s older population and suggests that it may complicate the delivery of health care to the state’s population during the COVID-19 epidemic. Older adults are much more likely to experience serious health consequences as a result of exposure to COVID-19. Thus, access to health care is of critical importance for older adults. Though most older adults reside in southern New Hampshire, seniors make up a larger proportion of the population in sparsely settled northern New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Population Grew Last Year, Even Though Deaths Exceeded Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,200 to 1,360,000 between July of 2018 and July of 2019 according to new Census Bureau estimates. The state’s population increased even though there were fewer births than deaths in the state last year. Migration from other U.S. destinations accounted for most of the state’s population gain. In a state where deaths now exceed births, migration is critical to New Hampshire’s future.

First In The Nation: New Hampshire’S Changing Electorate In Changing Times, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala, Andrew Smith

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Dante Scala, and Andrew Smith discuss demographic forces that are reshaping the New Hampshire landscape. They report that more than 20 percent of potential voters in the 2020 New Hampshire primary were either not old enough to vote in 2016 or resided somewhere other than New Hampshire. New Hampshire has one of the most mobile populations in the nation. Only one-third of New Hampshire residents age 25 and older were born in the state. Democratic presidential primary turnout in New Hampshire may hit record highs in 2020. Republican turnout, in contrast, is likely to …

New Hampshire Demographic Trends In An Era Of Economic Turbulence, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire gained 40,000 residents (a 3 percent increase) between 2010 and 2018, and the population reached 1,356,458 on July 1, 2018, according to the Census Bureau. Population gains in New Hampshire have diminished over time, though growth has recently picked up. Migration is the biggest driver of population change, and the pattern of demographic change is uneven across the state. New Hampshire’s population is aging and becoming more racially diverse, particularly among children. Johnson notes that, although New Hampshire is a relatively small player on the nation’s huge demographic stage, there …

U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Record Low And Births Continue To Diminish, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that National Center for Health Statistics data for 2018 show the lowest general fertility rate on record and just 3,788,000 births—the fewest in 32 years. This decline in births is entirely due to reduced fertility rates among women in their 20s and teenagers. The decrease has immediate implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.

Migration Fuels A Second Year Of Higher Population Gain In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,700 between July of 2017 and July of 2018 to 1,356,000 according to new Census Bureau estimates. This gain coupled with a population increase of 7,400 last year added 14,100 residents to the state between 2016 and 2018. This gain is 50 percent greater than the increase between 2014 and 2016, though it remains modest compared to gains in the 1970s and 1980s. Migration accounted for nearly all of this growth.

Rural America Growing Again Due To Migration Gains, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

For the first six years of this decade, rural America experienced overall population loss for the first time in history. New Census Bureau estimates suggest that last year overall growth accelerated in nonmetropolitan America where 46.1 million people reside.

Moving To Diversity, Richelle L. Winkler, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Richelle Winkler and Kenneth Johnson, using new data and techniques, find that net migration between U.S. counties increased racial diversity in each of the last two decades. However, migration’s influence on diversity was far from uniform: it varied by race, age group, and location, sometimes starkly. Overall, net migration of the population under age 40 increased diversity, while net migration of people over age 60 diminished diversity. Blacks and Hispanics are migrating to predominantly white counties, while white young adults are moving to urban core counties with relatively high proportions of blacks and Hispanics. The movement …

White Deaths Exceed Births In One-Third Of U.S. States, Rogelio Saenz, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz and Kenneth Johnson report that there were more white deaths than births in seventeen states in 2014, compared to just four states in 2004. This is the highest number of states with white natural decrease (more deaths than births) in U.S. history. Several of these states are among the nation’s most populous and urbanized. The rising number of older adults, the falling number of women of childbearing age, and lower fertility rates diminished the number of white births and increased the number of white deaths. The authors conclude with a discussion of the major …

U.S. Births Remain Low As The Great Recession Wanes; More Than Three Million Fewer Births And Still Counting, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this fact sheet, author Ken Johnson discusses how since the onset of the Great Recession, there have been 3.4 million fewer U.S. births than expected. National Center for Health Statistics data for 2015 show the lowest general fertility rate on record and only 3,978,000 births last year. There were 338,000 fewer births in 2015 than in 2007, just before the Recession began to influence fertility. This decline in births is entirely due to reduced fertility rates. In 2015, the shortfall of births was nearly 600,000, and recent data provide no evidence of any upturn in birth rates. It is …

Behind At The Starting Line: Poverty Among Hispanic Infants, Daniel T. Lichter, Scott R. Sanders, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Daniel Lichter, Scott Sanders, and Kenneth Johnson examine the economic circumstances of Hispanic infants using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey annual microdata files from 2006 through 2010. They report that a disproportionate share of Hispanic infants start life’s race behind the starting line, poor and disadvantaged—an important finding because the proportion of all U.S. births that are Hispanic is growing rapidly. The poverty risk is especially high among rural Hispanic infants and those in new destinations. Despite higher poverty risks, Hispanic infants receive less governmental assistance. High Hispanic infant poverty has immediate and long-term consequences …

Red Rural, Blue Rural; Rural Does Not Always Equal Republican, Dante J. Scala, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this fact sheet, authors Dante Scala and Kenneth Johnson examine voting data for nearly 9,000 rural residents to identify how voting patterns differ across rural areas comparing farm and recreational counties to those elsewhere in rural America. They also examine voting data from the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections for each rural county. Scala and Johnson report that rural America is not the undifferentiated Republican bastion depicted by commentators. While Republican presidential candidates do best in rural counties dominated by farming, Democratic presidential candidates do well in rural counties dominated by recreation. In “battleground” states, these rural differences may …

Diversity Growing Because Births Far Exceed Deaths Among Minorities, But Not Among Whites, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Ken Johnson analyzes new Census Bureau estimates that reflect two important demographic trends affecting the growing diversity of the U.S. population. The minority population is growing and the non-Hispanic white population is not. This interplay of white and minority population change is fueling the growing diversity of the U.S. population. Non-Hispanic whites currently represent 62% of the population and are projected to remain in the majority until the mid-2040s. Growth is minimal because the non-Hispanic white population is aging, which reduces fertility and increases mortality. In contrast, the minority population now represents 38 percent …

Public Insurance Drove Overall Coverage Growth Among Children In 2012, Michael J. Staley

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Using data from the American Community Survey, this brief examines the rates of health insurance coverage among children under 18 in the United States by region and by rural, suburban, and central city residence between 2008 and 2012. Author Michael Staley reports that, between 2011 and 2012, overall rates of health insurance coverage among children increased slightly (0.3 percentage point); 92.8 percent of the nation’s children had health insurance in 2012. Rates of public health insurance coverage for children grew from 28.3 percent in 2008 to 38.1 percent in 2012, whereas rates of private health insurance coverage for children decreased …

Immigration To Manchester, New Hampshire, Sally Ward, Justin R. Young, Curt D. Grimm

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

This brief analyzes immigration and refugee resettlement in Manchester and the effects on the city’s demographic composition, as well as the implications for its future. Authors Sally Ward, Justin Young, and Curt Grimm report that Manchester, New Hampshire, like the nation, is experiencing a new wave of immigration. In the past, most of the city’s immigrants tended to come from Canada and Europe. Today, they are most likely from Latin America, followed by Asia and, to a lesser extent, Africa. The rate of refugee placement in Manchester has remained relatively steady since the 1990s. Of all refugees who arrived in …

The Increasing Diversity Of America's Youth, Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew P. Schaefer, Daniel T. Lichter, Luke T. Rogers

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

This brief documents how unfolding demographic forces have placed today’s children and youth at the forefront of America’s new racial and ethnic diversity. Authors Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew Schaefer, Daniel T. Lichter, and Luke T. Rogers discuss how the rapidly changing racial and ethnic composition of the youth population has important implications for intergroup relations, ethnic identities, and electoral politics. They report that diversity is increasing among America’s youth because there are more minority children and fewer non-Hispanic white children. Minority births exceeded non-Hispanic white births for the first time in U.S. history in 2011 according to Census Bureau estimates. …

Walking Builds Community Cohesion: Survey Of Two New Hampshire Communities Looks At Social Capital And Walkability, Shannon H. Rogers, Kevin H. Gardner, Cynthia H. Carlson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

This brief reports the results of a survey conducted in 2009 of approximately 2,000 households in Portsmouth and Manchester, New Hampshire, to examine the connection between walkability and social capital. Authors Shannon Rogers, Kevin Gardner, and Cynthia Carlson report that higher levels of social capital are found in areas that are perceived to be more walkable, as measured by the number of places people can walk to in their community. In addition, walkability is influenced by concerns of safety, access, time, and health and by physical characteristics such as proximity, scale, and aesthetics. Given the link between walkability and greater …

New Hampshire Children In Need Of Services: Impacts Of 2011 Legislative Changes To Chins, Lisa Speropolous, Barbara Wauchope

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Using administrative data from state and local agencies and data from interviews with CHINS professionals, this brief provides an overview of participation in the Children in Need of Services (CHINS) program before and after the change in the law in September 2011 but before funding returned in 2013. Specifically, it examines changes in CHINS petitions filed, children served, and services provided to children and their families in the state. Authors Lisa Speropolous and Barbara Wauchope present the study as an example of the impact that state fiscal policy can have on the most vulnerable of New Hampshire’s populations.

2012 New Hampshire Civic Health Index, Bruce L. Mallory, Quixada Moore-Vissing

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

The 2012 New Hampshire Civic Health Index follows earlier studies, including the New Hampshire Civic Index compiled by the NH Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in 2006 and the 2009 Civic Health Index published by the Carsey Institute in collaboration with the National Conference on Citizenship and Knowledge Networks. This report begins with key findings, a general description of the Granite State, followed by detailed findings from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and other surveys that illustrate patterns of volunteering and giving, voting and voter registration, civic engagement (both informal and formal), and confidence in public institutions …

Age And Lifecycle Patterns Driving U.S. Migration Shifts, Kenneth M. Johnson, Richelle Winkler, Luke T. Rogers

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Migration—people moving between locations—is now driving much of the demographic change occurring in the United States. In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Richelle Winkler, and Luke Rogers share new research on age-related migration patterns to provide a fuller understanding of the complex patterns of demographic change in the United States. Examining four migration age groups, including emerging adults, young adults, family age, and older adults, their analysis of trends over time shows evidence that certain age groups migrate in similar ways. For example, young adult migrants are flowing to large metropolitan areas, while family age migrants are leaving large urban …

Deaths Exceed Births In Record Number Of U.S. Counties, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this fact sheet, author Kenneth Johnson examines new data released by the Census Bureau which provide insights into the continuing influence of the Great Recession on U.S. demographic trends. He reports that, for the first time in U.S. history, deaths exceeded births in two entire states: Maine and West Virginia, and a record 36 percent of all U.S. counties experienced natural decrease in 2012. Natural decrease occurs when more deaths than births occur in an area in a given year. The growing incidence of natural decrease in America has gone largely unnoticed, but the new data demonstrate that natural …

Beliefs About Development Versus Environmental Tradeoffs In The Puget Sound Region, Thomas G. Safford, Matthew Cutler, Megan M. Henly, Karma Norman, Phillip Levin

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Using data from a phone survey of 1,980 Puget Sound residents conducted in 2012, this fact sheet outlines residents’ views about the importance of environmental protection as well as their opinions about energy development, protection of wild salmon, and land use regulation. Seventy-four percent of Puget Sound residents believe that protecting the environment should be a priority even if it means limiting economic growth. The majority of residents favor both increased use of renewable energy (82 percent) and protecting wild salmon (75 percent). Residents are more divided about curbing development, with those from rural areas being more apt to prioritize …