Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

Latest Data Show All New England States Gain Population, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that population gains were widespread in New England last year, according to new Census Bureau estimates. All six states gained population for the first time since before the pandemic. New Hampshire and Maine continued to gain population, just as they have in each of the last four years. In contrast, Massachusetts and Rhode Island gained population last year after several years of population decline. Vermont and Connecticut also continued to add population.

Most of New England’s population increase came from migration, because deaths continue to exceed births in four of the …

More U.S. Women Of Childbearing Age, But Fewer Have Given Birth, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, in 2022, there were 21.9 million women aged 20–39 who had not given birth in the United States. This is 4.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession. In 2022, there were 9 percent more women 20 to 39 than in 2006, but the share who had never had a child was up by 37 percent.

The cumulative result of fewer women having children and diminishing fertility levels was 9.6 million fewer U.S. births between 2008 and …

Recent Demographic Trends Have Implications For Rural Health Care, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports nonmetropolitan (rural) America gained population between April of 2020 and July of 2022. In the preceding decade, rural areas lost population, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because births just minimally exceeded deaths. In contrast, the recent, modest rural population increase occurred because a significant net migration gain more than offset the growing excess of deaths over births fostered by the pandemic. That rural migration was strong enough to produce population growth is especially surprising given that deaths outnumbered births—in part due to the pandemic—in 85 …

Migration Sustains New Hampshire’S Population Gain: Examining The Origins Of Recent Migrants, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births. More people died (28,700) than were born (24,900) in New Hampshire in the past two years. Covid certainly contributed to this loss, but annual deaths already exceeded births in the state for several years before the pandemic.

Recently released Census data underscore the mobility of New Hampshire’s population and provide insights into the origin of the migrants to the state. Only 41 percent of the …

Three Years Of Record High Mortality And Low Fertility Leave Many States With More Deaths Than Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that with Covid-induced mortality at record highs and continuing low fertility during the past three years, U.S. births exceeded deaths by the smallest margin in more than a century. Such widespread natural decline is unprecedented. At least 22 states had a natural decline in each of the three pandemic years. Prior to the pandemic, the most states with more deaths than births in a year was 5 in 2019. There will be fewer states with more deaths than births in 2023 if the recent reductions in Covid deaths persist. But many …

U.S. Births Remain Near 40-Year Low For Third Consecutive Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that recent National Center for Health Statistics birth data indicate there were only 3,661,000 births in 2022, compared to 3,664,000 in 2021, and just 3,614,000 in 2020. These three birth cohorts are the smallest in 40 years and continue a birth decline that began in the era of the Great Recession. The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2022, there would have been 9.6 million more births in the last 15 years. A critical long-term question is: how many of these …

Retaining Residents Is Important To New Hampshire's Future: Why Do People Stay?, Kristine Bundschuh, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

A key factor impacting New Hampshire’s demographic and economic success is retaining and growing its population. What motivates people to move to New Hampshire is important to the state’s future and garners considerable policy attention. Much less consideration is given to retaining current residents. Yet on average, nearly 1.3 million New Hampshire residents do not migrate into or out of the state in a given year. Understanding why those residents stay in New Hampshire can be an important element of the state’s comprehensive development strategy.

In this brief, authors Kristine Bundschuh and Kenneth Johnson discuss the results of NH Granite …

Population Gains Widespread In New Hampshire Counties Due To Migration, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 17,700 to 1,395,000 between April 2020, when the 2020 Census was conducted, and July 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. These population gains were widespread, occurring in each of the state’s ten counties despite deaths exceeding births in nine of the ten counties. The entire population gain accrued because 21,600 more people moved to the state than left it. The data underscore the continuing importance of migration to the state’s future. Such migration gains result both from attracting migrants to the state …

New Census Data Reflect The Continuing Impact Of Covid On U.S. Demographic Trends, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, according to recent Census Bureau estimates, the U.S. population has grown at the slowest rate in history in the past two years due to the impact of Covid. Deaths exceeded births in 75 percent of all U.S. counties, far more than at any point in the past. Most of the modest population gain was due to migration, and its extent varied along the rural-urban continuum. Looking ahead, the size and distribution of future population gains remain uncertain. As the impact of the pandemic wanes, the excess of births over deaths is …

The Recent U.S. Population Growth Rate Increased From Last Year's Record Low, But Remains Below Historical Levels, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by just 1,256,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was an increase from the record low growth of the preceding year, but it remains well below historical rates. There were just 245,000 more births than deaths in the past year, an increase from the 144,000 in the previous year, but still the second smallest natural gain in 80 years. Deaths reached a record high of 3,443,000 last year, 20 percent more than three years ago. In …